BP Global Energy Outlook 2030

2013 ◽  
pp. 109-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rühl
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
The Us ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Oil Gas

This paper presents the highlights of the third annual edition of the BP Energy Outlook, which sets out BP’s view of the most likely developments in global energy markets to 2030, based on up-to-date analysis and taking into account developments of the past year. The Outlook’s overall expectation for growth in global energy demand is to be 36% higher in 2030 than in 2011 and almost all the growth coming from emerging economies. It also reflects shifting expectations of the pattern of supply, with unconventional sources — shale gas and tight oil together with heavy oil and biofuels — playing an increasingly important role and, in particular, transforming the energy balance of the US. While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26—28% each by 2030, and non-fossil fuels — nuclear, hydro and renewables — on a share of around 6—7% each. By 2030, increasing production and moderating demand will result in the US being 99% self-sufficient in net energy. Meanwhile, with continuing steep economic growth, major emerging economies such as China and India will become increasingly reliant on energy imports. These shifts will have major impacts on trade balances.

Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the US: A Markov-Switching VAR analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2094403
Author(s):  
Emrah Ismail Cevik ◽  
Durmuş Çağrı Yıldırım ◽  
Sel Dibooglu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
The United States ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us

We examine the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the United States. While the regime-dependent Granger causality test results for the non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth suggest bi-directional causality in both regimes, we cannot validate any causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth. The US meets its energy demand from non-renewable sources; as such, renewable energy consumption does not seem to affect economic growth. Given the efficiency and productivity of renewable energy investments, we conclude that it is worthwhile to consider renewable energy inputs to replace fossil fuels given potential benefits in terms of global warming and climate change concerns. In this regard, increasing the R&D investments in the renewable energy sectors, increases in productivity and profitability of renewable energy investments are likely to accrue benefits in the long run.

scholarly journals Can the 1.5 ℃ warming target be met in a global transition to 100% renewable energy?

AIMS Energy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1170-1191
Author(s):  
Peter Schwartzman ◽  
◽  
David Schwartzman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Energy Poverty ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

<abstract> <p>First, we recognize the valuable previous studies which model renewable energy growth with complete termination of fossil fuels along with assumptions of the remaining carbon budgets to reach IPCC warming targets. However, these studies use very complex combined economic/physical modeling and commonly lack transparency regarding the sensitivity to assumed inputs. Moreover, it is not clear that energy poverty with its big present impact in the global South has been eliminated in their scenarios. Further, their CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent natural gas emission factors are underestimated, which will have significant impact on the computed greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, we address this question in a transparent modeling study: can the 1.5 ℃ warming target still be met with an aggressive phaseout of fossil fuels coupled with a 100% replacement by renewable energy? We compute the continuous generation of global wind/solar energy power along with the cumulative carbon dioxide equivalent emissions in a complete phaseout of fossil fuels over a 20 year period. We compare these computed emissions with the state-of-the-science estimates for the remaining carbon budget of carbon dioxide emissions consistent with the 1.5 ℃ warming target, concluding that it is still possible to meet this warming target if the creation of a global 100% renewable energy transition of sufficient capacity begins very soon which will likely be needed to power aggressive negative carbon emission technology. The latter is focused on direct air capture for crustal storage. More efficient renewable technologies in the near future will make this transition easier and promote the implementation of a global circular economy. Taking into account technological improvements in 2<sup>nd</sup> law (exergy) efficiencies reducing the necessary global energy demand, the renewable supply should likely be no more than 1.5 times the present level, with the capacity to eliminate global energy poverty, for climate mitigation and adaptation.</p> </abstract>

scholarly journals World Turned Upside Down: Entrepreneurial Decline, Its Reluctant Myths and Troubling Realities

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Great Success ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Productivity Paradox ◽  
The Past ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Field ◽  
Start Ups

The aim of this paper is to attempt to understand why the popular academic and policy field of promoting, studying and evangelising &ldquo;entrepreneurship&rdquo; should have been associated with great success but, in the past twenty years or more in many advanced economies, so much failure. From the US to lesser and developing countries, emerging economies and the European Union, entrepreneurship, especially in regard to start-ups and particularly high-tech start-ups have been in constant more or less recent decline. This is seldom registered in the mainstream literature where a positive and benign profile is generally presented. The paper examines this phenomenon, ties it partly with the &ldquo;productivity paradox&rdquo; and seeks tentative hypotheses in relation to the apparent illusions if not delusions regarding &ldquo;entrepreneurship&rdquo;.

scholarly journals Global Energy Demand and Its Geopolitical and Socioeconomic Implications: Which Role Would Shale Resources Have?

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-54
Author(s):  
Carlos Castro ◽  
Francesca Verga ◽  
Dario Viberti
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Unconventional Resources ◽  
Societal Needs ◽  
The Us

This paper discusses the geopolitical and socioeconomic implications the development of shale gas (& oil) has had in the US. The approach has been that of placing shale gas under erasure (or sous rature). In other words, the assumption that shale is currently both present/absent was made to answer the question of whether it can actually be considered as a resource. Moreover, the success of the “shale revolution” in the US has not only had an impact on the International Oil & Gas, Petrochemical, natural resource and renewable markets, but it has also triggered certain geopolitical events which are modifying the role played by nations globally. Finally, it is suggested that under the prevailing circumstances these unconventional resources appear to still be more of a challenge than part of the solution to the ever growing energy demand, and production of goods associated with societal needs/aspirations worldwide.

scholarly journals How the COVID-19 Crisis is Showing us the Complexities in the Global Energy Transition

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Germán Meza ◽  
Nilton Bispo Amado ◽  
Ildo Sauer
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Natural Gas Prices ◽  
Alternative Sources ◽  
Post War ◽  
Storage Technologies

The measures for tackling the COVID-19 may shrink the global GDP by approximately 6% in 2020, the deepest post-war recession. As a result, the global energy demand declined by 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020. Concerning fossil fuels, this conjuncture reduced the demand drastically and collapsed the prices to historic levels. Despite the general market disruptions, renewable energy sources (RES) seem to be more resilient to the crisis because they are the only sources that will grow in demand in 2020, driven by priority dispatch. The RES&acute;s significant growth in cumulative installed capacity in the last two decades and the significant cost reductions of RES and energy storage technologies are positive signs towards better market conditions for the global energy transition. Currently, the crisis is seen by international agencies and transition scholars as an opportunity to advance a renewable-based energy transformation. Nevertheless, this article aims at caution about another possibility: if societal changes are not urgently implemented, the crisis may weaken the global energy transition. This article examines this last possibility from a three-level perspective: 1) post-COVID economic recovery, 2) low oil and natural gas prices and competitiveness of alternative sources and, 3) reorganization of the world energy market and the OPEC+. This paper exists to stimulate debate.

scholarly journals Traversing the mountaintop: world fossil fuel production to 2050

2009 ◽  
Vol 364 (1532) ◽  
pp. 3067-3079 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Nehring
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Past Century ◽  
World Population ◽  
Fuel Production ◽  
Half Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Per Capita

During the past century, fossil fuels—petroleum liquids, natural gas and coal—were the dominant source of world energy production. From 1950 to 2005, fossil fuels provided 85–93% of all energy production. All fossil fuels grew substantially during this period, their combined growth exceeding the increase in world population. This growth, however, was irregular, providing for rapidly growing per capita production from 1950 to 1980, stable per capita production from 1980 to 2000 and rising per capita production again after 2000. During the past half century, growth in fossil fuel production was essentially limited by energy demand. During the next half century, fossil fuel production will be limited primarily by the amount and characteristics of remaining fossil fuel resources. Three possible scenarios—low, medium and high—are developed for the production of each of the fossil fuels to 2050. These scenarios differ primarily by the amount of ultimate resources estimated for each fossil fuel. Total fossil fuel production will continue to grow, but only slowly for the next 15–30 years. The subsequent peak plateau will last for 10–15 years. These production peaks are robust; none of the fossil fuels, even with highly optimistic resource estimates, is projected to keep growing beyond 2050. World fossil fuel production per capita will thus begin an irreversible decline between 2020 and 2030.

Earnings management, funding and diversification strategies of banks in Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 172-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Amidu ◽  
Ransome Kuipo
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Earnings Quality ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Diversification Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Diversification Strategies ◽  
Almost All

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the implications of earnings management for funding and diversification strategy within the context of developing and emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach – The authors raise two issues pertinent to bank earnings management: first, whether there is evidence of earnings management of banks in the selected African countries; and second, what must have accounted for the banks to engage in such practices? Findings – The results show that almost all the 330 banks in the 29 African countries sampled are found to have engaged in some management of their earnings during the period 2002-2009. The authors also find evidence that bank activity mix and funding modes explain bank earnings quality. Overall results indicate that the sensitivity of earnings management to revenue diversification across interest income decreases, as bank market shares increases. Originality/value – The authors investigate how earnings management is affected by banks intermediation strategies.

The Oil Intensity of Output

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 34-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Iana Liadze
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forward Markets ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Energy Information ◽  
Made In

Since our last forecast in April 2008 there have been further increases in oil prices, as is illustrated in figure 1, which tracks oil price projections in our forecasts this year, and compares them to the projection we made in January and July 2007. Over the past eighteen months oil prices have risen from around $60 per barrel to a currently projected level of $123 in 2009. Oil prices have recently reached a peak of $145.6 a barrel before falling back to around $134. Our projection for the short term is based on those of the US Energy Information Agency and uses information from forward markets as well as an evaluation of supply conditions. In the longer term we presume that real oil prices will rise in line with the real interest rate, as is discussed on pp. 4–7 of this Review. This note looks at the impacts of recent increases in oil prices on the path for real wages by investigating the share of fossil fuels in costs. It also evaluates the impact of the rise in prices since our last forecast, and investigates the impact on oil prices of the growth in demand outside the OECD.

scholarly journals World Turned Upside Down: Entrepreneurial Decline, Its Reluctant Myths and Troubling Realities

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Great Success ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Productivity Paradox ◽  
The Past ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Field ◽  
Start Ups

The aim of this paper is to attempt to understand why the popular academic and policy field of promoting, studying and evangelising “entrepreneurship” should have been associated with great success but, in the past twenty years or more in many advanced economies, so much failure. From the US to lesser and developing countries, emerging economies and the European Union, entrepreneurship, especially in regard to start-ups and particularly high-tech start-ups, has been in constant more or less recent decline. This is seldom registered in the mainstream literature where a positive and benign profile is generally presented. The paper examines this phenomenon, ties it partly with the “productivity paradox” and seeks tentative hypotheses in relation to the apparent illusions if not delusions regarding “entrepreneurship”.

Complex Human Resource Challenges: Call for New Approaches

2007 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 14-16
Author(s):  
John A. Ryder
Keyword(s):  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Human Resource ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
New Approaches ◽  
Exploration Drilling

HR Corner - Recurring warnings that the advancing age of the oil and gas industry's workforce would lead to an employee shortage as Baby Boomers began retiring have become increasingly urgent in the past quarter century. But the issue really did not receive serious attention until global energy demand nearly overtook available supplies earlier this decade, driving oil prices to historical highs and sparking a worldwide surge of exploration, drilling, and development.

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