scholarly journals Estimation of fertility in Poland and of Polish born women in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
pp. 13-38
Author(s):  
Elżbieta Gołata

The aim of research presented in the paper is to explore the comparison of Total Fertility Rates of Polish women in England and Wales, with the rates for Polish women who are residents in Poland. Population censuses in Poland and the United Kingdom in 2011 provide information for such comparisons and show higher fertility rates of Polish women abroad than in Poland. Two specific questions were investigated. The first one is the question of the number of children born in Poland. It was observed that the number estimated on the basis of census data was not consistent with birth records in the register. The second question concerns the number of the usually resident population in Poland. We provide quality assessment of 2011 population census in Poland, estimates of actual and usually resident population. Based on thorough evaluation, a correction of the population estimates is proposed (RAF). Due to non-response and data omissions, the idea of Small Domain Estimation is applied with two a priori age and sex distributions: from the Polish Census Survey and upon the UK census. Fertility in Poland is estimated with regard to usually resident population published on the Census Hub, our RAF estimates and LFS data. The estimates of women at reproductive age differ for over 495,000, what cause certain discrepancies in TFR. Additionally we analyse changes in timing of birth and provide tempo adjusted TFR. The paper shows consequences of population estimates for measuring fertility. It was found that depending on the population estimates TFR in Poland differs from 1.31 for actual population to 1.45 for RAF estimates and 1.63 for tempo-adjusted TFR. Via detailed empirical examination of the usually resident population estimates in Poland we show inconsistencies resulting from the flexibility in interpretation of definitions given by EU 1260/2013 and specific regulations of individual countries.

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-202
Author(s):  
Cleon Tsimbos

This paper applies techniques of demographic analysis to official data of Greece to obtain net migration estimates by age, sex and citizenship for the intercensal period 1991-2001. It is found that the overall net immigration rate for the decade is 6.3 per 100 resident population and the contribution of foreign immigrants to this figure is 88.2 per cent. 85.4 % of the net immigrants are of working age and 70.3 % of net immigrant women are of reproductive age. The results of the study can be used to formulate assumptions regarding the migration component when handling population estimates and projections.


Author(s):  
Kai Liu ◽  
Chen Li ◽  
Haibin Gong ◽  
Ye Guo ◽  
Bingjie Hou ◽  
...  

Hypertension in adolescents has attracted increasing attention. However, large, well-designed studies accurately demonstrating epidemiological characteristics of adolescent hypertension remain insufficient. We, therefore, conducted a population-based multicenter study with repeated blood pressure visits to offer precise prevalence of it. We randomly recruited 42 025 adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in 6 centers throughout China from 2018 to 2019. The initial hypertension was estimated in all centers through one blood pressure measurement visit. Confirmed hypertension was evaluated in 3 blood pressure visits in 2 of 6 centers including 16 220 subjects. Hypertension was defined using American and Chinese guidelines and standardized by sex and age using 2010 China population census data. Standardized prevalence of initial and confirmed hypertension were 18.6% (95% CI, 17.3%–20.0%) and 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7%–7.2%) using 2017 American Association Pediatrics hypertension guidelines, respectively and which were 24.5% (95% CI, 23.0%–25.9%) and 8.8% (95% CI, 7.3%–10.3%) using 2018 Chinese hypertension guidelines. Male (odds ratio [OR], 1.275 [95% CI, 1.070–1.520]), parental hypertension history (OR, 1.387 [95% CI, 1.159–1.660]), higher heart rate (OR, 1.043 [95% CI, 1.037–1.049]), higher waist circumference (OR, 1.036 [95% CI, 1.027–1.046]), and adiposity indexes including overweight (OR, 2.211 [95% CI, 1.781–2.745]), and obesity (OR, 3.085 [95% CI, 2.330–4.084]) were identified as risk factors. In conclusion, the prevalence of hypertension was quite high evaluated by both guidelines with several risk factors, and a single blood pressure measurement visit leads to an overestimation of hypertension prevalence among adolescents.


2004 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe De Wals ◽  
Pierre Deshaies ◽  
Gaston De Serres ◽  
Bernard Duval ◽  
Lise Goulet ◽  
...  

The aims of the present study were to review the risk of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) among education workers, particularly pregnant women, and to evaluate preventive measures, in a context of endemicity, outbreak or epidemic as observed in the province of Quebec. The literature was reviewed and persons in charge of IMD surveillance in France, Quebec, the United Kingdom and the United States were interviewed. Surveys of asymptomatic carriage ofNeisseria meningitidisshow that transmission among students is higher than transmission between students and teachers. IMD incidence among education workers was analyzed in Cheshire (United Kingdom) in the period from 1997 to 1999, and the results indicated a risk six times higher than that in the general population. Overestimation of the magnitude of the risk is possible because the analysis focused on a cluster. None of the population-based studies of IMD mentioned a risk of secondary cases among education workers. Six IMD cases in education workers were identified in five clusters in schools in the United Kingdom, but not in the other countries. There is no epidemiological study on IMD risk among pregnant women, and this factor was not mentioned in any published review of IMD. Immunization of education workers at the beginning of their employment, using serogroup C glycoconjugate vaccine or a combined A, C, W-135, and Y conjugate vaccine (still under development), could reduce IMD risk, but the cost effectiveness of this measure should be evaluated. The societal benefit of excluding pregnant women from the work place during an outbreak seems to be very low, even if disease risk could be decreased for this specific group. When chemoprophylaxis is indicated for the control of an outbreak in an educational setting, treatment should be offered both to students and teachers in the group at risk.


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