Investigation on the Impact of US Anti-dumping Measures during the “Catfish War” on Vietnamese Pangasius Exports

2014 ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Binh Tu Van ◽  
Nhut Nguyen Huu Huy
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

The Vietnamese pangasius industry has faced anti-dumping (AD) measures imposed by the United States of America (USA). This dispute between the USA and Vietnam is known as the “Catfish War”. Based on monthly time series data from January 1999 to December 2011, an econometric approach is considered, in which regression models are taken into account for investigating how the USA AD measures impact on the volume and the value of Vietnam’s pangasius exports. As resulted in the estimation, the paper found that although the anti-dumping taxes imposed on Vietnam pangasius, it is not so seriously problematic for exporters in the long-term. One of the reasons is that Vietnam pangasius exporters are dynamic in developing market diversification by shifting from the USA to the European market.. However, in the short term, the trade dispute between the USA and Vietnam is a warning alarm for Vietnam pangasius exporters. In addition, the paper does not have any evidence to confirm that the upward trend of the real exchange rate between the VND and the USD is causing changes in either the pangasius export volume or the pangasius export value. Also there is no confirmation of a significant relationship between the inflation rate in Vietnam and the export value.

Does poverty lead to crime? Evidence from the United States of America

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1424-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Imran ◽  
Mosharrof Hosen ◽  
Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Advanced Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Economic hardship and crime is always a debatable issue in the political economy literature. Some authors define poverty leads to crime some are completely opposite. The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of poverty on crime in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Using time series data of USA over the period from 1965 to 2016, this study applies autoregressive distributed lag approach to identify the effect of poverty on crime. Findings The outcomes confirm a positive co-integrating relationship between poverty and property crime. It can be argued that poverty ultimately leads property crime in long run in the USA. However, unemployment and GDP exhibit neither long-run nor short-run relationship with property crime and they are not cointegrated for the calculated period. Research limitations/implications The subject of this paper helps to explain and analyze the nexus between poverty and crime in the USA. Practical implications Government and policymakers should focus more on poverty rather than unemployment alone to control property crime. Originality/value This study attempts to identify the consequences of economic hardship and poverty on the crime in the advanced economy like USA.

scholarly journals Assessing Stream-Aquifer Connectivity in a Coastal California Watershed

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 416
Author(s):  
Bwalya Malama ◽  
Devin Pritchard-Peterson ◽  
John J. Jasbinsek ◽  
Christopher Surfleet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Pumping Tests ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
The Impact

We report the results of field and laboratory investigations of stream-aquifer interactions in a watershed along the California coast to assess the impact of groundwater pumping for irrigation on stream flows. The methods used include subsurface sediment sampling using direct-push drilling, laboratory permeability and particle size analyses of sediment, piezometer installation and instrumentation, stream discharge and stage monitoring, pumping tests for aquifer characterization, resistivity surveys, and long-term passive monitoring of stream stage and groundwater levels. Spectral analysis of long-term water level data was used to assess correlation between stream and groundwater level time series data. The investigations revealed the presence of a thin low permeability silt-clay aquitard unit between the main aquifer and the stream. This suggested a three layer conceptual model of the subsurface comprising unconfined and confined aquifers separated by an aquitard layer. This was broadly confirmed by resistivity surveys and pumping tests, the latter of which indicated the occurrence of leakage across the aquitard. The aquitard was determined to be 2–3 orders of magnitude less permeable than the aquifer, which is indicative of weak stream-aquifer connectivity and was confirmed by spectral analysis of stream-aquifer water level time series. The results illustrate the importance of site-specific investigations and suggest that even in systems where the stream is not in direct hydraulic contact with the producing aquifer, long-term stream depletion can occur due to leakage across low permeability units. This has implications for management of stream flows, groundwater abstraction, and water resources management during prolonged periods of drought.

Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants

2007 ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Wataru Suzuki ◽  
Yanfei Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Welfare Use ◽  
The Impact

This article represents the first step in filling a large gap in knowledge concerning why Public Assistance (PA) use recently rose so fast in Japan. Specifically, we try to address this problem not only by performing a Blanchard and Quah decomposition on long-term monthly time series data (1960:04-2006:10), but also by estimating prefecturelevel longitudinal data. Two interesting findings emerge from the time series analysis. The first is that permanent shock imposes a continuously positive impact on the PA rate and is the main driving factor behind the recent increase in welfare use. The second finding is that the impact of temporary shock will last for a long time. The rate of the use of welfare is quite rigid because even if the PA rate rises due to temporary shocks, it takes about 8 or 9 years for it to regain its normal level. On the other hand, estimations of prefecture-level longitudinal data indicate that the Financial Capability Index (FCI) of the local government2 and minimum wage both impose negative effects on the PA rate. We also find that the rapid aging of Japan's population presents a permanent shock in practice, which makes it the most prominent contribution to surging welfare use.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Turchin ◽  
Andrey Korotayev
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Retrospective Assessment ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Usa

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Index, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. (2017) conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom and obtained similar results. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in all of these countries.

scholarly journals The impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on profitability of Islamic rural bank in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank (BPRS) in Indonesia. Using monthly time series data from January 2010 - December 2018. The estimation model used is a vector error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results showed that CAR and LnTA had a significant positive relationship, while NPF, BOPO and IPI had a negative and significant relationship to the profitability of Islamic rural banks. But FDR and Inflation variables are not significantly related to the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results leave implications for policy makers, investors and banking sector managers. Based on evidence that bank profitability is more influenced by internal banks (as specific as banks), this research can help Islamic rural banks to help them understand which factors are important to be analyzed to obtain higher profitability.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najia SAQIB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Impact

Economic theory suggests that sound and efficient financial systems channel capitals to its most productive uses are beneficial for economic growth. Sound and efficient financial systems are especially important for sustaining growth in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of banking sector liberalization on long-term economic growth in Pakistan by using a time series data for the period 1971–2011. The results show that there exist a significant positive long run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in the country. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the relationship remain positive and significant no matter what combination of the omitted variables are used in the basic model. Thus, our findings support the core idea that banking sector development stimulates long term economic growth in a country.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF PETROLEUM PRODUCT PRICE ON HUMAN WELFARE IN NIGERIA

10.23856/2906 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-42
Author(s):  
Olukayode Emmanuel Maku ◽  
S. Adetayo Adetowubo-King ◽  
O., Oyelade Aduralere
Keyword(s):  
Market Failure ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Human Welfare ◽  
Dual Purpose ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
The Impact

The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Therefore the study investigated the impact of petroleum pump price on human welfare in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2015. The study employed expost facto research design. Secondary time series data were used for the study and these were sourced from World Development Indicator (WDI, 2015) and Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, (CBN, 2015). The data collected were analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag. The inferences were drown at 1% and 5% significance level. The result showed that premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price exert a long-run negative and significant impact on human welfare in Nigeria (β = -0.15299, t = -5.31141 and β = -0.471399, t = -1.8838 respectively) while premium motor spirit price, dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate exert a short-run negative and significant impact on human welfare in Nigeria (β = -0.71735, t= -4.3766; β = -0.62562, t = -2.9188 and β = -0.050310, t = -2.1829 respectively). The study concluded that as premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate increases, human welfare will fall and vice versa. Therefore for human welfare to increase, there must be a fall in premium motor spirit price and dual purpose kerosene price and inflation rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that Government and it agencies should ensure that petroleum pump prices should be regulated because they have a long way on the market. An increase in the price of petroleum products will lead to market failure because most products use either of these products. Since inflation rate worsen the welfare of people, the policy maker should find a way of control inflation in the system so that the welfare of the people will improve (better-off).

scholarly journals Comparison of the impact of lending and inflation rates on economic growth in Vietnam and China

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 193-203
Author(s):  
Doan Van Dinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Lending Rates ◽  
The Impact

Inflation and lending rates are two important macroeconomic indicators as they affect economic growth. The correlation between the inflation rate and the lending rate in Vietnam and China is analyzed to determine whether the lending rate causes inflation or not. An ordinary least square model (OLS) and a unit root test are applied to check the correlation and cointegration related to the inflation and lending rates to avoid spurious regression. The research time series data were collected from 1996 to 2017. The correlation of Vietnam’s variables is 56%, the correlation of China’s variables is 55%, which is a close correlation. The empirical cointegration test results for Vietnam and China are suitable for two research models. The relationship between these two indicators influences each other. In the short term, inflation stimulates economic growth through loose monetary policy through the lending rate. However, in the long term, if the money supply increases continuously, inflation will slow economic growth and increase bad debt. The empirical results are to make accurate forecasts and determine monetary policy for micro-managers who set the goal of sustainable economic growth and have a strategy for economic development in the short and long term.

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