scholarly journals The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Turchin ◽  
Andrey Korotayev
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Retrospective Assessment ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Usa

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Index, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. (2017) conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom and obtained similar results. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in all of these countries.

scholarly journals Mass shootings in Australia and the United States, 1981-2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederic Lemieux ◽  
Samantha Bricknell ◽  
Tim Prenzler
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gunshot Wounds ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mass Shootings ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Mass Shooting ◽  
Definition Of

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare the incidence and main characteristics of mass shooting events in Australia and the USA in the period 1981-2013. Design/methodology/approach – The study adopted a conservative definition of mass shootings derived from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, covering four or more fatalities not including the offender. Australian cases were accessed from the Australian Institute of Criminology’s National Homicide Monitoring Programme (NHMP) database and several secondary sources. The US data were collected from the Mother Jones database, a report prepared for Mayors Against Illegal Guns and a New York Police Department report. The time series data were related to changes in firearms regulations in the two jurisdictions. Findings – For Australia, the study identified 13 mass shooting events and 104 fatalities from gunshot wounds. For the USA, there were 73 events and 576 victims. Of note is the fact that all cases in Australia pre-dated the implementation of the restrictive 1996 National Firearms Agreement. In the USA, a small decline was evident during the 1994-2004 Federal Assault Weapon Ban. Incidents and fatalities increased after 2004. Research limitations/implications – Of necessity, the paper adopts a conservative FBI-based definition of mass shootings that limits the number of cases captured. The absence of an official government US database also most likely limits the number of cases identified. Practical implications – The findings lend support to policy considerations regarding regulating access to firearms. Originality/value – The paper is unique in comparing mass shootings in these two jurisdictions over three decades in association with changes in firearms regulation.

Does poverty lead to crime? Evidence from the United States of America

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1424-1438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Imran ◽  
Mosharrof Hosen ◽  
Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Advanced Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Economic hardship and crime is always a debatable issue in the political economy literature. Some authors define poverty leads to crime some are completely opposite. The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of poverty on crime in the USA. Design/methodology/approach Using time series data of USA over the period from 1965 to 2016, this study applies autoregressive distributed lag approach to identify the effect of poverty on crime. Findings The outcomes confirm a positive co-integrating relationship between poverty and property crime. It can be argued that poverty ultimately leads property crime in long run in the USA. However, unemployment and GDP exhibit neither long-run nor short-run relationship with property crime and they are not cointegrated for the calculated period. Research limitations/implications The subject of this paper helps to explain and analyze the nexus between poverty and crime in the USA. Practical implications Government and policymakers should focus more on poverty rather than unemployment alone to control property crime. Originality/value This study attempts to identify the consequences of economic hardship and poverty on the crime in the advanced economy like USA.

Investigation on the Impact of US Anti-dumping Measures during the “Catfish War” on Vietnamese Pangasius Exports

2014 ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Binh Tu Van ◽  
Nhut Nguyen Huu Huy
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Trade Dispute ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

The Vietnamese pangasius industry has faced anti-dumping (AD) measures imposed by the United States of America (USA). This dispute between the USA and Vietnam is known as the “Catfish War”. Based on monthly time series data from January 1999 to December 2011, an econometric approach is considered, in which regression models are taken into account for investigating how the USA AD measures impact on the volume and the value of Vietnam’s pangasius exports. As resulted in the estimation, the paper found that although the anti-dumping taxes imposed on Vietnam pangasius, it is not so seriously problematic for exporters in the long-term. One of the reasons is that Vietnam pangasius exporters are dynamic in developing market diversification by shifting from the USA to the European market.. However, in the short term, the trade dispute between the USA and Vietnam is a warning alarm for Vietnam pangasius exporters. In addition, the paper does not have any evidence to confirm that the upward trend of the real exchange rate between the VND and the USD is causing changes in either the pangasius export volume or the pangasius export value. Also there is no confirmation of a significant relationship between the inflation rate in Vietnam and the export value.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

scholarly journals Associations between Google Search Trends for Symptoms and COVID-19 Confirmed and Death Cases in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4560
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abbas ◽  
Thomas B. Morland ◽  
Eric S. Hall ◽  
Yasser EL-Manzalawy
Keyword(s):  
Functional Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Google Search

We utilize functional data analysis techniques to investigate patterns of COVID-19 positivity and mortality in the US and their associations with Google search trends for COVID-19-related symptoms. Specifically, we represent state-level time series data for COVID-19 and Google search trends for symptoms as smoothed functional curves. Given these functional data, we explore the modes of variation in the data using functional principal component analysis (FPCA). We also apply functional clustering analysis to identify patterns of COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories across the US. Moreover, we quantify the associations between Google COVID-19 search trends for symptoms and COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories using dynamic correlation. Finally, we examine the dynamics of correlations for the top nine Google search trends of symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories. Our results reveal and characterize distinct patterns for COVID-19 spread and mortality across the US. The dynamics of these correlations suggest the feasibility of using Google queries to forecast COVID-19 cases and mortality for up to three weeks in advance. Our results and analysis framework set the stage for the development of predictive models for forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths using historical data and Google search trends for nine symptoms associated with both outcomes.

scholarly journals Shareholder nationality among the major European and American defense contractors: an exploratory data analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-49
Author(s):  
Mahdi FAWAZ ◽  
Jean BELIN ◽  
Hélène MASSON
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Investment Funds ◽  
Defense Contractors ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
First Results ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Exploratory Data

This article presents the first results of a statistical analysis of the ownership links between the major European and American defence contractors. This approach, centred on the shareholders and subsidiaries of these companies, enables us to explore the depth of the national links (company and country of origin) and the density of the ownership cooperation that exists within Europe, as well as with the rest of the world, particularly the United States. Information about defence contractors’ ownership links is difficult to obtain and precautions must be taken in the interpretation of the results.  In terms of defence contractor shareholders, it would appear first that the national link is strong for Sweden, Spain and France, less so for Germany and Italy, and particularly weak for the United Kingdom. Next, in European terms the links are concentrated on Airbus, MBDA and KNDS and are little developed in other companies. Finally, we observe asymmetrical links with the USA and a significant presence of American investment funds.

scholarly journals Cooperation and Coopetition as a Tools Which Could Improve Leading Startups all over the World

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Aneta Ejsmont
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Good News ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Foreign Sale ◽  
The Moment

Building own business is a long-term and laborious process. A person who leads a startup tries to start with building own business by taking first steps toward financial independence. Analyzing conditions in Poland, on average every second startup sells its services abroad, admittedly it is good news, although half of them do not export at all. Half of the startups which export their services and goods generates more than 50% of their revenues outside Poland. Very interesting is the fact that 60% of exporters have conducted their foreign sale since the moment of establishing their business. On which markets do they sell their services? It turns out that the most popular are markets in the European Union (54%), including the United Kingdom 14% and Germany 9%. Only about 25% of Polish startups exports their products and services to the United States. Taking the United States into consideration, in 2008 the USA lost their leading position in the number of startups which are newly created and achieving success in business. Currently in terms of the number of new startups the USA is on a quite distant place after Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Hungary, New Zealand, Israel or Italy. In short, more companies were closed than created, so it was, as a matter of fact, like in Poland. Therefore, the condition to improve the development of startups both from Poland and other countries all the world is to increase cooperation and coopetition.

scholarly journals FORECASTING INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVALS IN MALAYSIA USING SARIMA AND HOLT-WINTERS MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (18) ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
Norliana Mohd Lip ◽  
Nur Shafiqah Jumery ◽  
Fatin Amira Ahmad Termizi ◽  
Nurul Atiqa Mulyadi ◽  
Norhasnelly Anuar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Tourism Flows

Tourism can be described as the activities of visitors who make a visit to the main destination outside their usual environment for less than a year for any purpose. The tourism industry has become one of the influential sectors in global economic growth. Thus, tourism forecasting plays an important role in public and private sectors concerning future tourism flows. This study is an attempt to determine the best model in forecasting the international tourist's arrival in Malaysia based on Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters model. The comparison of the accuracy of the techniques between Box-Jenkins SARIMA and Holt-Winters model was done based on the value of Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The secondary time series data were obtained from the Tourism Malaysia Department, which consists of a number of tourist arrivals from Singapore, Korea, and the United Kingdom from the year 2013 until the year 2017. The findings of this study suggest that the SARIMA and Holt-Winters model are suitable to be used in forecasting tourist arrivals. This study found that the Holt-Winters model is the appropriate model to forecast tourist arrivals from the United Kingdom (UK) and Korea. While SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1)12 is the appropriate model for forecasting tourist arrivals from Singapore.

scholarly journals Comparison of the theoretical and practical approaches to funding through the IPO way in the Czech capital market

2008 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 59-68
Author(s):  
Tomáš Meluzín
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Professional Literature ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Public Offering

Funding development of the company through the “Initial Public Offering” has a high representation globally, the Czech Republic unlike, and belongs to traditional methods of raising funds necessary for development of business in the developed capital markets. In the United States of America, Japan and in the Western Europe countries the method of company funding through IPO has been applying for several decades already. The first public stock offerings began to be applied in these markets in higher volumes from the beginning of the 60th of the last century. From that period importance of IPO goes up globally and the initial public stock offerings begin to be applied more and more even in the Central and Eastern European countries. In the conditions of the Czech capital market it is possible to identify only few companies, who attempted to funding through the IPO way at present. Greater part of the Czech companies still undergo the debit funding for financing their further development, namely in the form of bank loans. At the same time it is necessary to take into account, that the debit financing starts, thanks to so-called mortgage crisis in the USA, causing problems and mark up. Admittance of a stakeholder into the company is not convenient for all and thus IPO represents an interesting option of how to acquire a no arrear capital. The aim of this article is to determine the IPO concept, analyse its development at the world stockholder markets, describe the reasons for IPO implementation according to the contemporary professional literature and compare it with the approaches to this particular form of funding with companies that have already implemented IPO at the Czech capital market.

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