Political Change in the Middle East and North Africa

The aim of the book is to closely study regime responses and the principal transformations that have occurred in the MENA countries and in the region overall as a result of the Arab Spring, with the purpose of assessing whether the nature of power and power relations has changed since 2011.Thus, this book analyses comparatively the consequences of the political changes that have taken place following the Arab Spring in MENA countries, not only at national level (within political regimes), but also at regional and international level (the MENA region and western policies towards MENA countries). The monograph opts for a horizontal comparative analysis by theme: parties and political groups, elections, constitutional frameworks, power relations, governance, civil society, rights and freedoms, regional powers, security issues and foreign policies. In order to complement this comparative analysis, this book also employs a typology to study change processes undertaken in specific countries in the MENA region: democratisation, autocratisation, political liberalisation, authoritarian progression and the breakdown of state authority. Thus, political change can and often does take different directions, not all of which necessarily have to lead to regime change. Transitions may occur from authoritarianism toward democracy, but may also give rise to a reconfiguration of authoritarianism. Authoritarian rulers can undertake political reforms without democratic motivations. Thus, the broad concept of ‘political change’ is used in this monograph not only in the sense of provoking democratic developments, but also as an element in reshaping authoritarian regimes.

Author(s):  
Inmaculada Szmolka

The introductory chapter explains the four sections of the book. The first section deals with the theoretical and methodological analysis of changes that have occurred since 2011 as a result of the Arab Spring: in political regimes, from a Comparative Politics approach; and in the MENA region, from an International Relations perspective. The second section includes an analysis of the transformations in party systems, the elections, the constitutional reforms undertaken, changes in government and power relations within political regimes, advances or deteriorations in governance in the MENA countries, the role of civil society in processes of political change, and the current situation regarding rights and civil liberties, and particularly in media and press freedom in the MENA countries. Section III analyses the political consequences of the processes of change at both regional and international level. The section thus takes into account the importance of the MENA region on the international scene, the role played by international powers in the processes of political change and in the conflicts that have erupted since the Arab Spring, the configuration of new political interests, regional powers, and alliances, and revised understandings of the threats facing the region and the international community. Finally, section IV presents the processes of political change undertaken as a consequence of the Arab Spring according to the typology established in chapter 1.


Author(s):  
Luis Melián

A key issue in the study of political change is the situation and development of rights and freedoms. Specifically, this chapter studies the impact that the eruption of the Arab Spring has had on these liberties. In order to meet this objective it analyses primary sources, legal reforms and frameworks, and databases and research reports. The question this chapter addresses is whether political changes in the MENA region reflect deepening liberalisation processes through de iure modifications of the civil liberties legislative framework; and the extent to which these changes have had a de facto impact on regimes. In sum, it assesses whether these changes have been sufficient to represent an advance or regression in the democratic character of the region's political regimes. After the analysis, it can be concluded that the situation of civil liberties in the region is either precarious or alarming in the majority of the MENA countries. Furthermore, with the exception of Tunisia, the Arab Spring has not led to a substantive improvement despite the reformist ambition of some countries, and has even led to a significant deterioration in various cases.


Author(s):  
Juan Tovar

This chapter analyses president Obama’s foreign policy in the MENA region. The first section focuses on the discourse and key strategic documents of the Obama administration. The purpose is to identify the place that the MENA region has in the order of priorities of his foreign policy. The second section analyses the US foreign policy towards some of the states affected by the Arab Spring; while the third analyses the participation of the US in various conflicts that have marked this change process. The fourth explores the question of the nuclear agreement with Iran and its effects on Israel, which is one of the main allies of the US in the region. The final chapter pulls together the conclusions. In some cases the US used diplomatic tools to promote political change; this is the case of Tunisia, Egypt or Yemen. In other cases the American decision-makers defended a status quo policy, such as Bahrain. In the cases of Libya, Syria and Iraq, the US was involved in different military interventions to promote political change or to fight terrorist groups like the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), as a consequence of the Arab Spring. The chapter concludes that the Obama Administration did not have a coherent strategy to the region, offering different reactions to different states with different contexts and interests. Nevertheless, the ascent of the IS and the Russian influence on the region, make that the MENA region retains its strategic and vital role for the American foreign policy.


Author(s):  
Inmaculada Szmolka

This chapter reflects on the existence or not of a new wave of democratisation in the wake of the Arab Spring. It is true that simultaneity, contagion, diffusion and emulation do feature in the political dynamics of change following the Arab Spring. However, rather than a democratic tsunami, there were ebbs and flows of a ‘wave of political change’ that has involved differing transformative processes in each country. Secondly, the author offers a typology of political regimes as well as a classification of MENA regimes prior to the Arab Spring, in order to identify the starting point of political change. Thirdly, different types of political change processes are defined and categorised: two general processes of political change (democratisation and autocratisation); and, five specific processes of political change affecting democracies (democratic regression, democratic deepening and consolidation of democracy) or authoritarianisms (political liberalisation and authoritarian progression). And finally, the author presents the methodological framework used in this book to study political change in the MENA countries. This change is analysed with reference to three dimensions: pluralism and political competition (party/representation systems and electoral integrity); government (constitutional reforms, government and state powers, and good governance; and public rights and liberties (political rights, civil rights, rule of law, and civil society).


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
AKM Ahsan Ullah

Geopolitically intertwined and strategically significant refugee policy in the MENA region is frequently analyzed in light of well-documented ethnic, religious, class, and border conflicts. However, the policy is also inexorably linked to the broader geopolitics of the global refugee protection regime and discourse. This article analyzes the complex relationship between geopolitics, domestic political dynamics, and their attendant crises in the MENA region. The complex set of political shockwaves of the Arab Spring induced massive mobility of people which may compound incipient political tensions between and within MENA states.


Author(s):  
Derek Lutterbeck

Coup-proofing—that is, measures aimed at preventing military coups and ensuring military loyalty—has been a key feature of civil–military relations in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) states. Just as the MENA region has been one of the most coup-prone regions in the world, coup-proofing has been an essential instrument of regime survival in Arab countries. The most commonly found coup-proofing strategies in the region include (a) so-called “communal coup-proofing,” involving the appointment of individuals to key positions within the military based on family, ethnic, or religious ties; (b) providing the military with corporate and/or private benefits in order to ensure its loyalty; (c) creating parallel military forces in addition to the regular military, so as to “counter-balance” the latter; (d) monitoring of the military through a vast internal security and intelligence apparatus; and (e) promoting professionalism, and thus political neutrality, within the military. The experiences of the “Arab Spring,” however, have shown that not all of these strategies are equally effective in ensuring military loyalty during times of popular upheavals and regime crises. A common finding in this context has been that communal coup-proofing (or militaries based on “patrimonialism”) creates the strongest bonds been the armed forces and their regimes, as evidenced by the forceful suppression of the popular uprising by the military in countries such as Syria, or by parts of the military in Libya and Yemen. By contrast, where coup-proofing has been based on the provision of material benefits to the military or on counterbalancing, as in Tunisia or Egypt, the armed forces have refrained from suppressing the popular uprising, ultimately leading to the downfall of these countries’ long-standing leaders. A further lesson that can be drawn from the Arab Spring in terms of coup-proofing is that students of both military coups and coup-proofing should dedicate (much) more attention to the increasingly important role played by the internal security apparatus in MENA countries.


Author(s):  
Lise Storm

This chapter examines parties and party system change across the MENA countries since December 2010. The discussion begins with a brief overview of party systems in the region on the eve of the Arab Spring, thereby providing a quick introduction to the selected cases as well as a benchmark against which to measure change. Party system change is determined via indicators such as the effective number of parties, party system fragmentation, electoral volatility and the entry of new parties into the system. The analysis of the indicators of party system change is coupled with a discussion of empirical data on the political environment during and in the immediate aftermath of the elections, including issues such as regime classification, rotation of power, coalition structures, prohibited parties, and societal cleavages. The author explains how - despite the fact that some old regimes fell and elections were held - the traditionally dominant or hegemonic political parties stayed preeminent in a number of MENA countries. Finally, this chapter shows what party system change tells us about the prospects for democracy some five years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring.


2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 1579-1585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Arayssi ◽  
Ali Fakih ◽  
Nathir Haimoun

2020 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 144-170
Author(s):  
Kamran Rabiei

Political developments, such as the ‘Arab Spring’, have led the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) towards instability, unrest and severe sectarian confrontations. Nearly 2 years before the ‘Arab Spring’, ‘the Iranian Green Movement’ swept over the country and led to the expectations that Iran would undergo a fundamental political change. The article addresses an important question as to why the 2009 Iranian unrest known as the ‘Green Movement’ did not lead to regime change, while on the other hand, the ‘Arab Spring’ ultimately led to the change of political systems in Tunisia and Egypt. Further, some significant factors are highlighted anticipating the degree of stability and instability for the future of political regimes in the MENA region.


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