scholarly journals Bets on Hats: On Dutch Books Against Groups, Degrees of Belief as Betting Rates, and Group-Reflection

Episteme ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luc Bovens ◽  
Wlodek Rabinowicz
Keyword(s):  
Social Epistemology ◽  
Reflection Principle ◽  
Dutch Book ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Degrees Of Belief ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Dutch Books ◽  
Common Goals ◽  
Betting Behavior

AbstractThe Story of the Hats is a puzzle in social epistemology. It describes a situation in which a group of rational agents with common priors and common goals seems vulnerable to a Dutch book if they are exposed to different information and make decisions independently. Situations in which this happens involve violations of what might be called the Group-Reflection Principle. As it turns out, the Dutch book is flawed. It is based on the betting interpretation of the subjective probabilities, but ignores the fact that this interpretation disregards strategic considerations that might influence betting behavior. A lesson to be learned concerns the interpretation of probabilities in terms of fair bets and, more generally, the role of strategic considerations in epistemic contexts. Another lesson concerns Group-Reflection, which in its unrestricted form is highly counter-intuitive. We consider how this principle of social epistemology should be re-formulated so as to make it tenable.

scholarly journals Online Gambling Activity, Pay-to-Win Payments, Motivation to Gamble and Coping Strategies as Predictors of Gambling Disorder Among e-sports Bettors

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernadeta Lelonek-Kuleta ◽  
Rafał Piotr Bartczuk
Keyword(s):  
Coping Strategies ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Gambling Disorder ◽  
Online Gambling ◽  
Gambling Activity ◽  
Psychological Variables ◽  
Betting Behavior ◽  
Game Session ◽  
And Coping

AbstractResearch on esports activity usually captures it from the perspective of involvement in gaming. This study presents the results of the first research in Poland (N = 438) on esports betting (ESB). ESB is compared to other forms of e-gambling and involvement in pay-to-win games. The aim was to build a predictive model of gambling disorder among people betting on esports. A predictive model of gambling disorder based on ordinal regression was built, including sociodemographic variables, involvement in esports betting, involvement in other Internet activities connected to ESB, as well as psychological variables—motivation to gamble and coping strategies. The results showed that gambling disorder among esports bettors is associated with time spent on one game session, placing other forms of online gambling bets once a week or more often, and paying in pay-to-win games. Gambling disorder was also predicted by escape coping strategies and lower engaged strategies as well as financial and coping motivation to bet on esports results. The results show the crucial role of psychological factors (motivation, coping) in the development of esports betting addiction. Esports betting is an activity associated with both gambling and gaming—involvement in both activities explains the development of ESB addiction. There is a need for further research focused on the specificity of esports betting behavior to discover the direction of links among gaming, gambling, and esports gambling.

scholarly journals Introduction: Social Cognitive Ecology and Its Role in Social Epistemology

Episteme ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Mikkel Gerken ◽  
Jesper Kallestrup ◽  
Klemens Kappel ◽  
Duncan Pritchard
Keyword(s):  
Social Epistemology ◽  
Social Cognitive ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Cognitive Ecology ◽  
University Of Edinburgh ◽  
The University

The articles in this special issue were selected from the 2010 Episteme conference, “Cognitive Ecology: The Role of the Concept of Knowledge in Our Social Cognitive Ecology”, which took place at the University of Edinburgh in June 2010. The overarching purpose of the conference was to explore our epistemic concepts – and the concept of knowledge in particular – from the perspective offered by a social cognitive ecology.

scholarly journals Symmetry as a Guide to Post-truth Times: A Response to Lynch

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 395-411
Author(s):  
Steve Fuller
Keyword(s):  
Social Epistemology ◽  
Science And Technology Studies ◽  
Thomas Hobbes ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Truth Condition ◽  
Carl Schmitt ◽  
Symmetry Principle ◽  
Technology Studies

Abstract William Lynch has provided an informed and probing critique of my embrace of the post-truth condition, which he understands correctly as an extension of the normative project of social epistemology. This article roughly tracks the order of Lynch’s paper, beginning with the vexed role of the ‘normative’ in Science and Technology Studies, which originally triggered my version of social epistemology 35 years ago and has been guided by the field’s ‘symmetry principle’. Here the pejorative use of ‘populism’ to mean democracy is highlighted as a failure of symmetry. Finally, after rejecting Lynch’s appeal to a hybrid Marxian–Darwinism, Carl Schmitt and Thomas Hobbes are contrasted en route to what I have called ‘quantum epistemology’.

scholarly journals Proses dan Teknik Supervisi Pendidikan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dharmala Febriyanti
Keyword(s):  
Work Performance ◽  
Organizational Goals ◽  
Effective Learning ◽  
Organizational Work ◽  
Common Goals ◽  
Main Activity ◽  
Teaching Programs ◽  
Role Of The Principal ◽  
Human Awareness

One effort to increase effective learning in schools is the role of the principal in supervising learning, because the success or failure of teaching programs in schools is largely determined by the principal as a leader. Leadership is a very important factor in influencing organizational work performance, because leadership is the main activity where organizational goals can be achieved (Nuchiyah: 2007). According to Muhani (2016: 1465) leadership is one of the problems that arise along with human awareness of the importance of living in groups to achieve common goals.

Prior Beliefs and Ambiguity Attitudes in Decision from Experience

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilke Aydogan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Decisions From Experience ◽  
Ambiguity Attitudes ◽  
Existing Data

Prior beliefs and their updating play a crucial role in decisions under uncertainty, and theories about them have been well established in classical Bayesianism. Yet, they are almost absent for ambiguous decisions from experience. This paper proposes a new decision model that incorporates the role of prior beliefs, beyond the role of ambiguity attitudes, into the analysis of such decisions. Hence, it connects ambiguity theories, popular in economics, with decision from experience, popular (mostly) in psychology, to the benefit of both. A reanalysis of some existing data sets from the literature on decisions from experience shows that the model that incorporates prior beliefs into the estimation of subjective probabilities outperforms the commonly used model that approximates subjective probabilities with observed relative frequencies. Controlling for subjective priors, we obtain more accurate measurements of ambiguity attitudes, and thus a new explanation of the gap between decision from description and decision from experience. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.

Bayesian Rationality and Social Epistemology

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herbert Gintis
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Nash Equilibrium ◽  
Social Norms ◽  
Social Epistemology ◽  
Correlated Equilibrium ◽  
Epistemic Game Theory ◽  
Famous Theorem ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Natural Equilibrium ◽  
Bayesian Rationality

This chapter uses epistemic game theory to expand on the notion of social norms as choreographer of a correlated equilibrium, and to elucidate the socio-psychological prerequisites for the notion that social norms implement correlated equilibria. The correlated equilibrium is a much more natural equilibrium criterion than the Nash equilibrium, because of a famous theorem of Aumann (1987), who showed that Bayesian rational agents in an epistemic game G with a common subjective prior play a correlated equilibrium of G. Thus, while rationality and common priors do not imply Nash equilibrium, these assumptions do imply correlated equilibrium and social norms act not only as choreographer, but also supply the epistemic conditions for common priors.

Introduction

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina Hutchison ◽  
Catriona Mackenzie ◽  
Marina Oshana
Keyword(s):  
Moral Responsibility ◽  
Social Epistemology ◽  
Feminist Philosophy ◽  
Relational Autonomy ◽  
Social Dimensions ◽  
Philosophical Literature ◽  
The Social ◽  
Social Theories ◽  
Scant Attention

This introduction distinguishes ways the social dimensions of moral responsibility have been investigated in recent philosophical literature: some theories highlight the interpersonal dimensions of moral responsibility practices; some explicate the interlocutive properties of morally reactive exchanges; while others seek to explain the role of the social environment in scaffolding agency. Despite the rise of social approaches, philosophers have paid scant attention to the implications of inequalities of power for theorizing about moral responsibility. The remainder of the introduction articulates a set of problems posed by contexts of structural injustice for theories of moral responsibility and highlights the relevance of recent work in feminist philosophy on relational autonomy and social epistemology for understanding and addressing these problems. The introduction notes the overlaps and differences between the concepts of autonomy and moral responsibility and offers preliminary reflections on how debates about relational autonomy might bear on social theories of moral responsibility.

scholarly journals Emerging Adults and COVID-19: The Role of Individualism-Collectivism on Perceived Risks and Psychological Maladjustment

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Germani ◽  
Livia Buratta ◽  
Elisa Delvecchio ◽  
Claudia Mazzeschi
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Adulthood ◽  
Emerging Adults ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Asymptomatic Carrier ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Perceived Risks ◽  
Psychological Maladjustment ◽  
Medical Reports ◽  
Common Goals

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has dramatically changed our habits and routines. Uncertainty, insecurity, instability for the present and future, and reduced autonomy and self-directedness, are common feelings at the time of COVID-19. These aspects are very important during emerging adulthood. In spite of the fact that medical reports suggest that youth are less prone to experience COVID-19 infections, emerging adults might be at higher risk for their psychological adjustment. Emerging adults showed higher concerns about their role as a possible asymptomatic carrier than being positive with COVID-19 themselves. Both worries and concerns about COVID-19 and psychological maladjustment may be related to cultural factors. Individualism, collectivism, equality, and hierarchy seem to be meaningful perspectives to take into account. A total of 1183 Italian emerging adults were asked to fill out an online survey during the second week of the national lockdown in Italy. Results showed they reported an accurate perceived knowledge about COVID-19. At the same time, they showed higher worries and concerns about COVID-19 for their relatives, followed by more general/social worries. The lowest score included worries about COVID-19 related to themselves. State anxiety and stress levels were above the normal cutoff, confirming the challenges that emerging adults are facing during the pandemic. On one hand, emerging adults’ collectivistic orientation was related to higher perceived risks of infection; on the other hand, it predicted lower psychological maladjustment, controlling for socio-demographic variables. The study suggests that to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and decrease levels of psychological maladjustment in emerging adulthood, individuals’ cultural orientation such as the wish of sharing common goals with others, interdependence, and sociability, have to be emphasized and promoted as protective factors.

scholarly journals LA PROVA STATISTICA NEL PROCESSO PENALE

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vittorio B. Frosini
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Final Section ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Bayes Formula ◽  
General Topic ◽  
Famous Trials

A general topic is faced in the first three sections, i.e. the role of objective and subjective probabilities in trials, the determination of conditional probabilities, and Bayes’ formula (or theorem); the last topic is a fundamental device which allows the computation of probabilities of possible causes, given related information about certain effects. Strictly connected to this argument is the «fallacy of the transposed conditional», which usually implies an unwarranted assumption of guilt. The fifth section is devoted to a discussion of some main features of two famous trials, those of Alfred Dreyfus in France and of Sally Clark in U.K., in which the above fallacy is clearly recognized. The final section presents kinds of trials which require a judgment about groups of people; the statistical methods applied in these cases pertain to the so-called tests of significance.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document