scholarly journals Cover Note: Communicating Climate Risk Toolkit

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jo Lindsay Walton ◽  
Polina Levontin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Open Problems ◽  
Survey Questions ◽  
Climate Action

The Communicating Climate Risk Toolkit (‘the Toolkit’), from the COP26 Universities Network (COP26 UN) and the Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision Makers network (AU4DM), seeks to narrow the gap between climate science and climate action, by providing insights, recommendations, and practical tools to support dialogue between scientists, decision-makers, and diverse stakeholders and communities. The Toolkit also endeavours to identify open problems and pose questions for further study and debate. The Toolkit builds on previous work by AU4DM and partly emerges from conversations at and around the COP26 Universities Network Climate Risk Summit, in September 2021, as well as survey questions shared with its participants.

Is the Great Barrier Reef dead? Satire, death and environmental communication

2021 ◽  
pp. 1329878X2110558
Author(s):  
Kerrie Foxwell-Norton ◽  
Claire Konkes
Keyword(s):  
Great Barrier Reef ◽  
Political Action ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Environmental Communication ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Barrier Reef ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
The Us ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
A Site

An obituary for the Great Barrier Reef (the Reef) by travel and food writer Rowan Jacobsen (2016) commemorated its ‘lifetime accomplishments’ in Outside, the US outdoor recreational magazine. ‘News’ of the Reef's demise went viral and the economic and political furore that followed was immense. Tourism industries, especially reliant on international arrivals, were impacted as potential visitors accepted the Reef's passing as fact. Politicians scampered to reassure Australians and the globe that the Reef was indeed still alive and beautiful. In the Australian public sphere, climate science deniers, alongside those advocating for climate action, collided over the impacts of global warming to Reef health. Subsequent mass coral bleaching events in 2016, 2017 and 2020 sustained at the very least, the idea that the Reef was, or was soon to be, dead. Our paper follows the idea of a ‘dead Reef’ in the context of historical and recent debates about Reef protection. Using Google Trends, we identify Jacobsen's article as the source of increased Australian and global ideation of a ‘dead Reef’. As a site of local and global environmental communication – where human relations to nature are expressed and understood - the Reef holds extraordinary story telling power. At the current junction then, the way we communicate the Reef is critical to public understanding and political action on climate change. We conclude Jacobsen's article is an example of the problems of satirical communication, serving to amplify existing conflicts and undermine efforts to foster to climate action.

scholarly journals Climate Change, Uncertainty and Policy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen Hopster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Moral Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Economics ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
Management Perspective ◽  
Climate Uncertainty

While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.

scholarly journals Telling the boiling frog what he needs to know: why climate change risks should be plotted as probability over time

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Sharpe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
First Principles ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Humanity's situation with respect to climate change is sometimes compared to that of a frog in a slowly boiling pot of water, meaning that change will happen too gradually for us to appreciate the likelihood of catastrophe and act before it is too late. I argue that the scientific community is not yet telling the boiling frog what he needs to know. I use a review of the figures included in two reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to show that much of the climate science communicated to policymakers is presented in the form of projections of what is most likely to occur, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: in 5 min time, the water you are sitting in will be 2 ∘C warmer). I argue from first principles that a more appropriate means of assessing and communicating the risks of climate change would be to produce assessments of the likelihood of crossing non-arbitrary thresholds of impact, as a function of time (equivalent to the following statement: the probability of you being boiled to death will be 1 % in 5 min time, rising to 100 % in 20 min time if you do not jump out of the pot). This would be consistent with approaches to risk assessment in fields such as insurance, engineering, and health and safety. Importantly, it would ensure that decision makers are informed of the biggest risks and hence of the strongest reasons to act. I suggest ways in which the science community could contribute to promoting this approach, taking into account its inherent need for cross-disciplinary research and for engagement with decision makers before the research is conducted instead of afterwards.

Engaging publics through climate math

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 316-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiara R. Na’puti ◽  
Phaedra C. Pezzullo ◽  
Leah Sprain ◽  
Lydia Reinig
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Environmental Planning ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
National Leader ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Climate Action Plan ◽  
Key Terms ◽  
The City

Abstract Energy democracy hopes to foster community engagement and participation in shaping our transition from fossil fuels to a renewable energy-based economy. These considerations result from critiques by environmental justice, climate justice, and just transition advocates. Although many are sympathetic to energy democracy ideals, climate goals often are articulated in math terms. This essay defines the aforementioned key terms and asks: what are the limitations and possibilities of engaging publics when climate action solely is articulated in numbers? A compelling case study is the City of Boulder – recognized as a global leader in climate science and a national leader in innovative environmental planning. This essay shares work from 2016, when the City shared a climate action plan for public feedback, supported several public participation events, and passed climate action legislation goals. We argue a just transition and energy democracy ideals are hindered if we reduce climate goals to math.

How Must I Explain to the Dolphins?

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 389-404
Author(s):  
Yvette Abrahams ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Lived Experience ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Free Choice ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Knowledge Systems ◽  
Ethical Responsibility ◽  
Indigenous Knowledge Systems ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Traditional Manner

The story of change and growth, i.e., evolution, in the traditional manner, involves an epistemology of indigenous knowledge systems that admits both evolution and the divine—and therefore the human capacity for free choice—that tells us that fossil fuels are a bad choice. Steven Biko’s message of “Black Consciousness” responds to the dilemma of how we belong to the species that is damaging the planetary ecosystem, amd yet how we can deny complicity by saying that reclaiming our culture enables us to see what we have done, so we can refuse complicity with the system that has divided us and take responsibility for giving birth to new life. The uncertainties of climate change can be thought through using race, class, gender, sexual orientation, indigeneity, and disability as categories of analysis. The result is an understanding that through both climate science and lived experience, we can know enough to know we ought to act on climate change. We do not need more research; we need instead an acceptance of our ignorance amid a sense of ethical responsibility. This story speaks of liberation from oppression and of climate action as deeply entangled in

scholarly journals Helping to Make Sense of Regional Climate Modeling: Professional Development for Scientists and Decision-Makers Anytime, Anywhere

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (7) ◽  
pp. 1173-1185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Walton ◽  
Morgan B. Yarker ◽  
Michel D. S. Mesquita ◽  
Friederike E. L. Otto
Keyword(s):  
Professional Development ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Online Courses ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
E Learning

Abstract Globally, decision-makers are increasingly using high-resolution climate models to support policy and planning; however, many of these users do not have the knowledge needed to use them appropriately. This problem is compounded by not having access to quality learning opportunities to better understand how to apply the models and interpret results. This paper discusses and proposes an educational framework based on two independent online courses on regional climate modeling, which addresses the accessibility issue and provides guidance to climate science professors, researchers, and institutions who want to create their own online courses. The role of e-learning as an educational tool is well documented, highlighting the benefits of improved personal efficiency through “anywhere, anytime” learning with the flexibility to support professional development across different sectors. In addition, improved global Internet means increased accessibility. However, e-learning’s function as a tool to support understanding of atmospheric physics and high-resolution climate modeling has not been widely discussed. To date, few courses, if any, support understanding that takes full advantage of e-learning best practices. There is a growing need for climate literacy to help inform decision-making on a range of scales, from individual households to corporate CEOs. And while there is a plethora of climate information online, educational theory suggests that people need to be guided in how to convert this information into applicable knowledge. Here, we present how the experience of the courses we designed and ran independent of each other, both engaging learners with better understanding benefits and limitations of regional climate modeling, lead to a framework of designing e-learning for climate modeling.

scholarly journals Probabilistic numerics and uncertainty in computations

2015 ◽  
Vol 471 (2179) ◽  
pp. 20150142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Hennig ◽  
Michael A. Osborne ◽  
Mark Girolami
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Methods ◽  
Numerical Algorithms ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Complex Data ◽  
Open Problems ◽  
Error Sources ◽  
Contemporary Science ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
And Control ◽  
New Algorithms

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods : algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

scholarly journals Climatology in support of climate risk management

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 536-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn McGregor
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Science Literature ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
Climate Events

Climate risk management has emerged over the last decade as a distinct area of activity within the wider field of climatology. Its focus is on integrating climate and non-climate information in order to enhance the decision-making process in a wide range of climate-sensitive sectors of society, the economy and the environment. Given the burgeoning pure and applied climate science literature that addresses a range of climate risks, the purpose of this progress report is to provide an overview of recent developments in the field of climatology that may contribute to the risk assessment component of climate risk management. Data rescue and climate database construction, hurricanes and droughts as examples of extreme climate events and seasonal climate forecasting are focused on in this report and are privileged over other topics because of either their fundamental importance for establishing event probability or scale of societal impact. The review of the literature finds that historical data rescue, climate reconstruction and the compilation of climate data bases has assisted immensely in understanding past climate events and increasing the information base for managing climate risk. Advances in the scientific understanding of the causes and the characterization of hurricanes and droughts stand to benefit the management of these two extreme events while work focused on unravelling the nature of ocean–atmosphere interactions and associated climate anomalies at the seasonal timescale has provided the basis for the possible seasonal forecasting of a range of climate events. The report also acknowledges that despite the potential of climate information to assist with managing climate risk, its uptake by decision makers should not be automatically assumed by the climatological community.

scholarly journals Learning by Doing: Co-Benefits Drive National Plans for Climate and Air Quality Governance

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1184
Author(s):  
Clara Mewes ◽  
Charlotte Unger
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Learning By Doing ◽  
Learning Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Measure ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Clean Air ◽  
Policymaking And Implementation

What drives countries to realize more integrated policymaking? The co-benefits concept highlights the win–win situations that can arise if one policy measure addresses two or more policy goals, e.g., air quality and health benefits resulting from a climate policy. Scholars have suggested that decision makers, if confronted with the evidence of co-benefits, would update their beliefs and adopt stronger or more ambitious climate policies. In other words, a learning process takes place. This paper looks at the policy processes in two countries, Mexico and Nigeria, as part of the Supporting National Action and Planning (SNAP) initiative under the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC). The SNAP initiative supports governments with policymaking and implementation for a reduction in short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). This paper seeks to reveal how learning processes and their outcomes are influenced by co-benefits as a specific type of information. Looking at an example of how the co-benefits concept is applied in political practice offers valuable insights into how learning is part of the policymaking process and can shape its outcomes, such as national (climate) action plans.

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