scholarly journals Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel Chemura ◽  
Amsalu Woldie Yalew ◽  
Christoph Gornott
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Yield Losses ◽  
Climate Regulation ◽  
Maize Yields

Agroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially for low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms and landscapes, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate its contribution in building the resilience of farming systems to climate change over large areas. In this study, we developed an approach to simulate and emulate the shading, micro-climate regulation and biomass effects of multi-purpose trees agroforestry system on maize yields using APSIM, taking Ethiopia as a case study. Applying the model to simulate climate change impacts showed that at national level, maize yield will increase by 7.5 and 3.1 % by 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This projected increase in national-level maize yield is driven by maize yield increases in six administrative zones whereas yield losses are expected in other five zones (mean of −6.8% for RCP2.6 and −11.7% for RCP8.5), with yields in the other four zones remaining stable overtime. Applying the emulated agroforestry leads to increase in maize yield under current and future climatic conditions compared to maize monocultures, particularly in regions for which yield losses under climate change are expected. A 10% agroforestry shade will reduce maize yield losses by 6.9% (RCP2.6) and 4.2 % (RCP8.5) while 20% shade will reduce maize yield losses by 11.5% (RCP2.6) and 11% (RCP8.5) for projected loss zones. Overall, our results show quantitatively that agroforestry buffers yield losses for areas projected to have yield losses under climate change in Ethiopia, and therefore should be part of building climate-resilient agricultural systems.

scholarly journals Shifts in the thermal niche of fruit trees under climate change: the case of peach cultivation in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Vanalli ◽  
R. Casagrandi ◽  
M. Gatto ◽  
D. Bevacqua
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prunus Persica ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fruit Trees ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Spring Frost ◽  
Thermal Niche ◽  
Chilling Units ◽  
The Impact

AbstractClimate influences plant phenological traits, thus playing a key role in defining the geographical range of crops. Foreseeing the impact of climate change on fruit trees is essential to inform policy decisions to guide the adaptation to new climatic conditions. To this end, we propose and use a phenological process-based model to assess the impacts of climate change upon the phenology, the suitability and the distribution of economically important cultivars of peach (Prunus persica), across the entire continental France. The model combines temperature dependent sub-models of dormancy, blooming, fruit survival and ripening, using chilling units, forcing units, frost occurrence and growing degree days, respectively. We find that climate change will have divergent impacts upon peach production. On the one hand, blooming will occur earlier, warmer temperatures will decrease spring frost occurrence and fruit ripening will be easily achieved before the start of fall. On the other hand, milder winters will impede the plant buds from breaking endodormancy, with consequent abnormal patterns of fruit development or even blooming failure. This latter impact will dramatically shift the geographic range of sites where peach production will be profitable. This shift will mainly be from the south of France (Languedoc-Roussillon, Rhône-Alpes and Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur), to northwestern areas where the winter chilling requirement will still be fulfilled. Our study provides novel insights for understanding and forecasting climate change impacts on peach phenology and it is the first framework that maps the ecological thermal niche of peach at national level.

scholarly journals Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mook Bangalore ◽  
Andrew Smith ◽  
Ted Veldkamp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Poor People ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Socioeconomic Data ◽  
The City ◽  
Level Analysis

Abstract. With 70 percent of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is highly exposed to riverine and coastal flooding. This paper examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding in Vietnam and specifically in Ho Chi Minh City, using new high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data. The national-level analysis finds that a third of today’s population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46 percent of the population. Climate change impacts can make frequent events as important as rare ones: the estimates suggest a 25-year flood under future conditions can expose more people than a 200-year flood under current conditions. Although poor districts are not found to be more exposed to floods at the national level, the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides evidence that slum areas are highly exposed. The results of this paper show the benefits of investing today in flood risk management, and can provide guidance as to where future investments may be targeted.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Wine-Growing Bioclimatic Transition Areas

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 605
Author(s):  
Alba Piña-Rey ◽  
Estefanía González-Fernández ◽  
María Fernández-González ◽  
Mª. Nieves Lorenzo ◽  
Fco. Javier Rodríguez-Rajo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Cultural Practice ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Bioclimatic Indices ◽  
Northwestern Spain ◽  
The Mediterranean

Viticultural climatic indices were assessed for the evaluation of the meteorological variations in the requirements of wine cultivars. The applied bioclimatic indices have been widely used to provide an initial evaluation of climate change impacts on grapevine and to delineate wine regions and suitable areas for planting around the world. The study was carried out over a period of 16 years (from 2000 to 2015) in five Designation of Origin areas in Northwestern Spain located in the Eurosiberian region, the transition zone between the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean areas, and in the Mediterranean area. In addition, the high-resolution meteorological dataset “Spain02” was applied to the bioclimatic indices for the period 1950–2095. To further assess the performance of “Spain02”, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A significant trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSS Indices was detected in the North-western Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. To analyze future projections 2061–2095, data from the high-resolution dynamically downscaled daily climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX project were used. To further assess the performance of Spain02, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSP Indices was detected in Northwestern Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. Our results showed that climatic conditions in the study region could variate for the crop in the future, more for Mediterranean than Eurosiberian bioclimatic area. Due to an advance in the phenological events or the vintage data, more alcohol-fortified wines and variations in the acidity level of wines could be expected in Northwestern Spain, these processes being most noticeable in the Mediterranean area. The projections for the BBLI and GSP Indices will induce a decrease in the pressure of the mildew attacks incidence in the areas located at the Eurosiberian region and the nearest transition zones. Projections showed if the trend of temperature increase continues, some cultural practice variations should be conducted in order to preserve the grape cultivation suitability in the studied area.

scholarly journals BOVISOL Project: Breeding and Management Practices of Indigenous Bovine Breeds: Solutions towards a Sustainable Future

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 9891
Author(s):  
Sofiane Boudalia ◽  
Samia Ben Said ◽  
Dimitrios Tsiokos ◽  
Aissam Bousbia ◽  
Yassine Gueroui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
National Level ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
World Population ◽  
Livestock Farming ◽  
Slow Food ◽  
Sustainable Future ◽  
Mediterranean Countries

In order to deal with the effects of globalization, urbanization, increase in world population, global warming, and climate change; and according to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 targets, which aim to end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture, it is urgently needed to transform our agriculture and livestock farming systems by taking into account the environmental considerations. The Breeding and management practices of indigenous bovine breeds: Solutions towards a sustainable future (BOVISOL) project is a scientific cooperation between three Mediterranean countries (Greece, Tunisia and Algeria) supported and funded by the European Commission under the European Research Area Networks (ERA-NET) scheme of the 7th Framework Programme. This project has been formed around the hypothesis that the local bovine breeds must be preserved since they possess a valuable genetic pool, and they are a part of the landscape and the biodiversity of rural areas. Moreover, their products (milk, cheese, meat, etc.) could contribute significantly to the local economies as they could easily be associated with recent food trends like “local” and “slow food”, which are considered today, as, not only a mean of nutrition, but also a way of living and a part of people’s identity. BOVISOL project aims to: (i) identify the local breeds and populations in a national level, (ii) describe the existing farm and breeding practices, (iii) analyze the quality of the main local animal products, (iv) propose solutions that will promote the sustainability of the traditional farming systems, especially nowadays that climate change proposes new challenges on animal production, and (v) disseminate the solutions on all the levels of the sector (farmers, scientists, local communities, governmental agencies).

scholarly journals Perceived Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategy of Indigenous Community (Chepangs) in Rural Mid-hills of Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 48-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pragya Khanal ◽  
Bishnu H. Wagle ◽  
Suraj Upadhaya ◽  
Prayash Ghimire ◽  
Suman Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Marginalized Communities ◽  
Indigenous Group ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change is projected to increase in vulnerable areas of the world, and marginalized communities residing in rural areas are more vulnerable to the change. The perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies made by such communities are important considerations in the design of adaptation strategies by policy-makers. We examined the most marginalized indigenous group "Chepang" communities' perceptions towards this change, variability, and their attitudes to adaptations and adapted coping measures in mid-hills of Nepal. We interviewed 155 individuals from two Chepang communities, namely, Shaktikhor and Siddhi in Chitwan district of Nepal. We also analyzed biophysical data to assess the variability. The findings showed that the Chepang community has experienced significant impacts of climate change and variability. They attributed crop disease, insect infestation, human health problem, and weather-related disaster as the impacts of climate change. Strategies they have adopted in response to the change are the use of intense fertilizers in farmland, hybrid seeds cultivation, crop diversification, etc. Local level and national level adaptation policies need to be designed and implemented as soon as possible to help climate vulnerable communities like Chepangs to cope against the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Unravelling the variability and causes of smallholder maize yield gaps in Ethiopia

Food Security ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banchayehu Tessema Assefa ◽  
Jordan Chamberlin ◽  
Pytrik Reidsma ◽  
João Vasco Silva ◽  
Martin K. van Ittersum
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Frontier Analysis ◽  
National Level ◽  
Total Yield ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Yield Gap ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Frontier Analysis ◽  
Yield Gaps ◽  
Maize Yields

AbstractEthiopia has achieved the second highest maize yield in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, farmers’ maize yields are still much lower than on-farm and on-station trial yields, and only ca. 20% of the estimated water-limited potential yield. This article provides a comprehensive national level analysis of the drivers of maize yields in Ethiopia, by decomposing yield gaps into efficiency, resource and technology components, and accounting for a broad set of detailed input and crop management choices. Stochastic frontier analysis was combined with concepts of production ecology to estimate and explain technically efficient yields, the efficiency yield gap and the resource yield gap. The technology yield gap was estimated based on water-limited potential yields from the Global Yield Gap Atlas. The relative magnitudes of the efficiency, resource and technology yield gaps differed across farming systems; they ranged from 15% (1.6 t/ha) to 21% (1.9 t/ha), 12% (1.3 t/ha) to 25% (2.3 t/ha) and 54% (4.8 t/ha) to 73% (7.8 t/ha), respectively. Factors that reduce the efficiency yield gap include: income from non-farm sources, value of productive assets, education and plot distance from home. The resource yield gap can be explained by sub-optimal input use, from a yield perspective. The technology yield gap comprised the largest share of the total yield gap, partly due to limited use of fertilizer and improved seeds. We conclude that targeted but integrated policy design and implementation is required to narrow the overall maize yield gap and improve food security.

An assessment of climate change impacts on maize yields in Hebei Province of China

2017 ◽  
Vol 581-582 ◽  
pp. 507-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongfu Chen ◽  
Xinru Han ◽  
Wei Si ◽  
Zhigang Wu ◽  
Hsiaoping Chien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hebei Province ◽  
Maize Yields

Maize/Weed Competition Experiments: Implications for Tropical Small-Farm Weed Control Research

1983 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 341-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Vernon ◽  
J. M. H. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Weed Control ◽  
Critical Period ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Weed Competition ◽  
Labour Demand ◽  
Small Farms ◽  
Yield Losses ◽  
Small Farm ◽  
Control Research ◽  
Maize Yields

SUMMARYTwo sets of experiments examined the effects of weeds on maize yields using weeding methods typical of small farms in Zambia where oxen are used for cultivation. Maize yield losses of 30% due to weeds were evident with common weeding practices. A critical period of competition, during which the crop should be kept clean, was demonstrated from 10 to 30 days after emergence. This is a period of peak labour demand and the prospect of using chemical weed control to ease the situation is considered. The value of weed competition data, given its variability between sites, is discussed.

Global contribution of climate variability and trends to maize yield change in observations and crop models during 1980-2010

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Yin ◽  
Guoyong Leng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Process Based Models

<p>Understanding historical crop yield response to climate change is critical for projecting future climate change impacts on yields. Previous assessments rely on statistical or process-based crop models, but each has its own strength and weakness. A comprehensive comparison of climate impacts on yield between the two approaches allows for evaluation of the uncertainties in future yield projections. Here we assess the impacts of historical climate change on global maize yield for the period 1980-2010 using both statistical and process-based models, with a focus on comparing the performances between the two approaches. To allow for reasonable comparability, we develop an emulator which shares the same structure with the statistical model to mimic the behaviors of process-based models. Results show that the simulated maize yields in most of the top 10 producing countries are overestimated, when compared against FAO observations. Overall, GEPIC, EPIC-IIASA and EPIC-Boku show better performance than other models in reproducing the observed yield variations at the global scale. Climate variability explains 42.00% of yield variations in observation-based statistical model, while large discrepancy is found in crop models. Regionally, climate variability is associated with 55.0% and 52.20% of yield variations in Argentina and USA, respectively. Further analysis based on process-based model emulator shows that climate change has led to a yield loss by 1.51%-3.80% during the period 1980-1990, consistent with the estimations using the observation-based statistical model. As for the period 1991-2000, however, the observed yield loss induced by climate change is only captured by GEPIC and pDSSAT. In contrast to the observed positive climate impact for the period 2001-2010, CLM-Crop, EPIC-IIASA, GEPIC, pAPSIM, pDSSAT and PEGASUS simulated negative climate effects. The results point to the discrepancy between process-based and statistical crop models in simulating climate change impacts on maize yield, which depends on not only the regions, but also the specific time period. We suggest that more targeted efforts are required for constraining the uncertainties of both statistical and process-based crop models for future yield predictions. </p>

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