Using Machine Learning to Predict Mortality for COVID-19 Patients on Day 0 in the ICU

Rationale: Given the expanding number of COVID-19 cases and the potential for new waves of infection, there is an urgent need for early prediction of the severity of the disease in intensive care unit (ICU) patients to optimize treatment strategies.Objectives: Early prediction of mortality using machine learning based on typical laboratory results and clinical data registered on the day of ICU admission.Methods: We retrospectively studied 797 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Iran and the United Kingdom (U.K.). To find parameters with the highest predictive values, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Pearson chi-squared tests were used. Several machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), logistic regression, gradient boosting classifier, support vector machine classifier, and artificial neural network algorithms were utilized to build classification models. The impact of each marker on the RF model predictions was studied by implementing the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation technique (LIME-SP).Results: Among 66 documented parameters, 15 factors with the highest predictive values were identified as follows: gender, age, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), albumin, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), white blood cell count, segmented neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean cell hemoglobin (MCH) along with a history of neurological, cardiovascular, and respiratory disorders. Our RF model can predict patient outcomes with a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 75%. The performance of the models was confirmed by blindly testing the models in an external dataset.Conclusions: Using two independent patient datasets, we designed a machine-learning-based model that could predict the risk of mortality from severe COVID-19 with high accuracy. The most decisive variables in our model were increased levels of BUN, lowered albumin levels, increased creatinine, INR, and RDW, along with gender and age. Considering the importance of early triage decisions, this model can be a useful tool in COVID-19 ICU decision-making.

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Using Machine Learning to Predict Mortality for COVID-19 Patients on Day Zero in the ICU

10.1101/2021.02.04.21251131 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Elham Jamshidi ◽

Amirhossein Asgary ◽

Nader Tavakoli ◽

Alireza Zali ◽

Hadi Esmaily ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Complete Blood Count ◽

Treatment Strategies ◽

International Normalized Ratio ◽

Early Prediction ◽

Icu Patients ◽

Distribution Width ◽

Predictive Values ◽

Prediction Of Mortality ◽

The Impact

AbstractRationaleGiven the expanding number of COVID-19 cases and the potential for upcoming waves of infection, there is an urgent need for early prediction of the severity of the disease in intensive care unit (ICU) patients to optimize treatment strategies.ObjectivesEarly prediction of mortality using machine learning based on typical laboratory results and clinical data registered on the day of ICU admission.MethodsWe studied retrospectively 263 COVID-19 ICU patients. To find parameters with the highest predictive values, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Pearson chi-squared tests were used. Logistic regression and random forest (RF) algorithms were utilized to build classification models. The impact of each marker on the RF model predictions was studied by implementing the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation technique (LIME-SP).ResultsAmong 66 documented parameters, 15 factors with the highest predictive values were identified as follows: gender, age, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), albumin, mean corpuscular volume, white blood cell count, segmented neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean cell hemoglobin along with a history of neurological, cardiovascular, and respiratory disorders. Our RF model can predict patients outcomes with a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 75%.ConclusionsThe most decisive variables in our model were increased levels of BUN, lowered albumin levels, increased creatinine, INR, and RDW along with gender and age. Complete blood count parameters were also crucial for some patients. Considering the importance of early triage decisions, this model can be a useful tool in COVID-19 ICU decision-making.

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Data based predictive models for odor perception

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-020-73978-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Rinu Chacko ◽

Deepak Jain ◽

Manasi Patwardhan ◽

Abhishek Puri ◽

Shirish Karande ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Data Analytics ◽

Model Performance ◽

Structural Features ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Structure Property ◽

Odor Perception ◽

The Impact

Abstract Machine learning and data analytics are being increasingly used for quantitative structure property relation (QSPR) applications in the chemical domain where the traditional Edisonian approach towards knowledge-discovery have not been fruitful. The perception of odorant stimuli is one such application as olfaction is the least understood among all the other senses. In this study, we employ machine learning based algorithms and data analytics to address the efficacy of using a data-driven approach to predict the perceptual attributes of an odorant namely the odorant characters (OC) of “sweet” and “musky”. We first analyze a psychophysical dataset containing perceptual ratings of 55 subjects to reveal patterns in the ratings given by subjects. We then use the data to train several machine learning algorithms such as random forest, gradient boosting and support vector machine for prediction of the odor characters and report the structural features correlating well with the odor characters based on the optimal model. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of the data quality on the performance of the models by comparing the semantic descriptors generally associated with a given odorant to its perception by majority of the subjects. The study presents a methodology for developing models for odor perception and provides insights on the perception of odorants by untrained human subjects and the effect of the inherent bias in the perception data on the model performance. The models and methodology developed here could be used for predicting odor characters of new odorants.

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Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems ◽

10.3233/jifs-189120 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 39 (5) ◽

pp. 6579-6590

Author(s):

Sandy Çağlıyor ◽

Başar Öztayşi ◽

Selime Sezgin

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Global Economy ◽

Learning Algorithms ◽

Forecast Model ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

High Stakes ◽

Box Office ◽

Industry Forecast ◽

The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

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Prediction of Healing Performance of Autogenous Healing Concrete Using Machine Learning

Materials ◽

10.3390/ma14154068 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (15) ◽

pp. 4068

Author(s):

Xu Huang ◽

Mirna Wasouf ◽

Jessada Sresakoolchai ◽

Sakdirat Kaewunruen

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Search Algorithm ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Prediction Performance ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Coefficient Of Determination ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Self Healing ◽

Artificial Neural Network Ann

Cracks typically develop in concrete due to shrinkage, loading actions, and weather conditions; and may occur anytime in its life span. Autogenous healing concrete is a type of self-healing concrete that can automatically heal cracks based on physical or chemical reactions in concrete matrix. It is imperative to investigate the healing performance that autogenous healing concrete possesses, to assess the extent of the cracking and to predict the extent of healing. In the research of self-healing concrete, testing the healing performance of concrete in a laboratory is costly, and a mass of instances may be needed to explore reliable concrete design. This study is thus the world’s first to establish six types of machine learning algorithms, which are capable of predicting the healing performance (HP) of self-healing concrete. These algorithms involve an artificial neural network (ANN), a k-nearest neighbours (kNN), a gradient boosting regression (GBR), a decision tree regression (DTR), a support vector regression (SVR) and a random forest (RF). Parameters of these algorithms are tuned utilising grid search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). The prediction performance indicated by coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) measures of these algorithms are evaluated on the basis of 1417 data sets from the open literature. The results show that GSA-GBR performs higher prediction performance (R2GSA-GBR = 0.958) and stronger robustness (RMSEGSA-GBR = 0.202) than the other five types of algorithms employed to predict the healing performance of autogenous healing concrete. Therefore, reliable prediction accuracy of the healing performance and efficient assistance on the design of autogenous healing concrete can be achieved.

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Comparison of Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Soil Erosion Pin Measurements

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi10010042 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 42

Author(s):

Kieu Anh Nguyen ◽

Walter Chen ◽

Bor-Shiun Lin ◽

Uma Seeboonruang

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Soil Erosion ◽

Ensemble Methods ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Ensemble Machine Learning ◽

Boosting Method ◽

Bagging Method

Although machine learning has been extensively used in various fields, it has only recently been applied to soil erosion pin modeling. To improve upon previous methods of quantifying soil erosion based on erosion pin measurements, this study explored the possible application of ensemble machine learning algorithms to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. Three categories of ensemble methods were considered in this study: (a) Bagging, (b) boosting, and (c) stacking. The bagging method in this study refers to bagged multivariate adaptive regression splines (bagged MARS) and random forest (RF), and the boosting method includes Cubist and gradient boosting machine (GBM). Finally, the stacking method is an ensemble method that uses a meta-model to combine the predictions of base models. This study used RF and GBM as the meta-models, decision tree, linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine as the base models. The dataset used in this study was sampled using stratified random sampling to achieve a 70/30 split for the training and test data, and the process was repeated three times. The performance of six ensemble methods in three categories was analyzed based on the average of three attempts. It was found that GBM performed the best among the ensemble models with the lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE = 1.72 mm/year), the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.54), and the highest index of agreement (d = 0.81). This result was confirmed by the spatial comparison of the absolute differences (errors) between model predictions and observations using GBM and RF in the study area. In summary, the results show that as a group, the bagging method and the boosting method performed equally well, and the stacking method was third for the erosion pin dataset considered in this study.

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Explainable machine learning can outperform Cox regression predictions and provide insights in breast cancer survival

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-86327-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Arturo Moncada-Torres ◽

Marissa C. van Maaren ◽

Mathijs P. Hendriks ◽

Sabine Siesling ◽

Gijs Geleijnse

Keyword(s):

Breast Cancer ◽

Machine Learning ◽

Explicit Knowledge ◽

Cox Regression ◽

Metastatic Breast ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Netherlands Cancer Registry ◽

Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽

The Impact

AbstractCox Proportional Hazards (CPH) analysis is the standard for survival analysis in oncology. Recently, several machine learning (ML) techniques have been adapted for this task. Although they have shown to yield results at least as good as classical methods, they are often disregarded because of their lack of transparency and little to no explainability, which are key for their adoption in clinical settings. In this paper, we used data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry of 36,658 non-metastatic breast cancer patients to compare the performance of CPH with ML techniques (Random Survival Forests, Survival Support Vector Machines, and Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGB]) in predicting survival using the $$c$$ c -index. We demonstrated that in our dataset, ML-based models can perform at least as good as the classical CPH regression ($$c$$ c -index $$\sim \,0.63$$ ∼ 0.63 ), and in the case of XGB even better ($$c$$ c -index $$\sim 0.73$$ ∼ 0.73 ). Furthermore, we used Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values to explain the models’ predictions. We concluded that the difference in performance can be attributed to XGB’s ability to model nonlinearities and complex interactions. We also investigated the impact of specific features on the models’ predictions as well as their corresponding insights. Lastly, we showed that explainable ML can generate explicit knowledge of how models make their predictions, which is crucial in increasing the trust and adoption of innovative ML techniques in oncology and healthcare overall.

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Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology ◽

10.22214/ijraset.2021.36028 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (VI) ◽

pp. 4367-4374

Author(s):

Gudipally Chandrashakar

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Gold Price ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Series Data ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Average Value ◽

Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

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Fault detection for air conditioning system using machine learning

IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) ◽

10.11591/ijai.v9.i1.pp109-116 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

pp. 109

Author(s):

Noor Asyikin Sulaiman ◽

Md Pauzi Abdullah ◽

Hayati Abdullah ◽

Muhammad Noorazlan Shah Zainudin ◽

Azdiana Md Yusop

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Supervised Learning ◽

Air Conditioning ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Coefficient Of Performance ◽

Support Vector ◽

Air Conditioning System ◽

Learning Classifier ◽

Negative Impacts ◽

The Impact

Air conditioning system is a complex system and consumes the most energy in a building. Any fault in the system operation such as cooling tower fan faulty, compressor failure, damper stuck, etc. could lead to energy wastage and reduction in the system’s coefficient of performance (COP). Due to the complexity of the air conditioning system, detecting those faults is hard as it requires exhaustive inspections. This paper consists of two parts; i) to investigate the impact of different faults related to the air conditioning system on COP and ii) to analyse the performances of machine learning algorithms to classify those faults. Three supervised learning classifier models were developed, which were deep learning, support vector machine (SVM) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The performances of each classifier were investigated in terms of six different classes of faults. Results showed that different faults give different negative impacts on the COP. Also, the three supervised learning classifier models able to classify all faults for more than 94%, and MLP produced the highest accuracy and precision among all.

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MODIS-FIRMS and ground-truthing based wildfire likelihood mapping of Sikkim Himalaya using machine learning algorithms.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-750123/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Polash Banerjee

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Machine Learning Algorithms ◽

Tree Cover ◽

Anthropogenic Factors ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Learning Methods ◽

Sikkim Himalaya ◽

Environmental Features ◽

Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Wildfires in limited extent and intensity can be a boon for the forest ecosystem. However, recent episodes of wildfires of 2019 in Australia and Brazil are sad reminders of their heavy ecological and economical costs. Understanding the role of environmental factors in the likelihood of wildfires in a spatial context would be instrumental in mitigating it. In this study, 14 environmental features encompassing meteorological, topographical, ecological, in situ and anthropogenic factors have been considered for preparing the wildfire likelihood map of Sikkim Himalaya. A comparative study on the efficiency of machine learning methods like Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has been performed to identify the best performing algorithm in wildfire prediction. The study indicates that all the machine learning methods are good at predicting wildfires. However, RF has outperformed, followed by GBM in the prediction. Also, environmental features like average temperature, average wind speed, proximity to roadways and tree cover percentage are the most important determinants of wildfires in Sikkim Himalaya. This study can be considered as a decision support tool for preparedness, efficient resource allocation and sensitization of people towards mitigation of wildfires in Sikkim.

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Exploring the Mechanism of Crashes with Autonomous Vehicles Using Machine Learning

Mathematical Problems in Engineering ◽

10.1155/2021/5524356 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 2021 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Hengrui Chen ◽

Hong Chen ◽

Ruiyu Zhou ◽

Zhizhen Liu ◽

Xiaoke Sun

Keyword(s):

Machine Learning ◽

Autonomous Vehicles ◽

Classification And Regression Tree ◽

Gradient Boosting ◽

Support Vector ◽

Crash Severity ◽

Apriori Algorithm ◽

Driving Mode ◽

Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽

The Impact

The safety issue has become a critical obstacle that cannot be ignored in the marketization of autonomous vehicles (AVs). The objective of this study is to explore the mechanism of AV-involved crashes and analyze the impact of each feature on crash severity. We use the Apriori algorithm to explore the causal relationship between multiple factors to explore the mechanism of crashes. We use various machine learning models, including support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to analyze the crash severity. Besides, we apply the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to interpret the importance of each factor. The results indicate that XGBoost obtains the best result (recall = 75%; G-mean = 67.82%). Both XGBoost and Apriori algorithm effectively provided meaningful insights about AV-involved crash characteristics and their relationship. Among all these features, vehicle damage, weather conditions, accident location, and driving mode are the most critical features. We found that most rear-end crashes are conventional vehicles bumping into the rear of AVs. Drivers should be extremely cautious when driving in fog, snow, and insufficient light. Besides, drivers should be careful when driving near intersections, especially in the autonomous driving mode.

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