scholarly journals Tsunamis from prospected mass failure on the Marsili submarine volcano flanks and hints for tsunami hazard evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Gallotti ◽  
F. Zaniboni ◽  
G. Pagnoni ◽  
C. Romagnoli ◽  
F. Gamberi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Hydrothermal Activity ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Submarine Volcano ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Mass Failure

AbstractThe Marsili Seamount (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) is the largest submarine volcano in the Mediterranean Sea, located in the middle of the Marsili Basin, facing the Calabrian and Sicilian coasts on its eastern side, and the coasts of Sardinia on the opposite side. It has erupted in historical times, and its summit crest is affected by widespread hydrothermal activity. This study looks at mass failures taking place at different depths on the flanks of the volcano and estimates their associated tsunamigenic potential. Mass failure, tsunami generation, and propagation have been simulated by means of numerical models developed by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. In all, we consider five cases. Of these, three scenarios, one regarding a very small detachment and two medium-sized ones (between 2 and 3 km3 failure volume), have been suggested as possible failure occurrences in the published literature on a morphological basis and involve the north-eastern and north-western sectors of the volcano. The two additional cases, one medium-sized and one extreme, intended as a possible worst-case scenario (volume 17.6 km3), affecting the eastern flank. Results indicate that small-volume failures are not able to produce significant tsunamis; medium-size failures can produce tsunamis which dangerously affect the coasts if their detachment occurs in shallow water, i.e., involves the volcano crest; and extreme volume failures have the potential to create disastrous tsunamis. In all the simulations, tsunami waves appear to reach the Aeolian Islands in around 10 min and the coasts of Calabria and Sicily in 20 min. This study highlights that there is a potential for dangerous tsunamis generation from collapses of the Marsili volcano and as a consequence a need to intensify research on its status and stability conditions. More broadly, this investigation should also be extended to the other volcanic seamounts of the Tyrrhenian Sea, since their eruptive style, evolution, and tsunamigenic potential are still poorly known.

scholarly journals TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT MODELLING IN CHABAHAR PORT, IRAN

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W7 ◽  
pp. 461-467
Author(s):  
M. R. Delavar ◽  
H. Mohammadi ◽  
M. A. Sharifi ◽  
M. D. Pirooz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Western India ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Dry Land ◽  
Great Loss ◽  
Makran Subduction Zone ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Historical Tsunami

The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km<sup>2</sup> of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.

scholarly journals SPATIOTEMPORAL VISUALIZATION OF TSUNAMI WAVES USING KML ON GOOGLE EARTH

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W7 ◽  
pp. 1291-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Mohammadi ◽  
M. R. Delavar ◽  
M. A. Sharifi ◽  
M. D. Pirooz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Spatiotemporal Visualization ◽  
Virtual Globes ◽  
The Impact

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

Initial Price Strategies of Polish Micro and Small Enterprises

2017 ◽  
pp. 126-143
Author(s):  
Mariusz Maciejczak ◽  
Adrian Słodki
Keyword(s):  
Game Theory ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Small Companies ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
The Game Theory ◽  
Real Market ◽  
And Performance

The sector of micro, small and medium size enterprises is important for any economy. It is important also for Poland. Analyzing the industrial organization of this sector it was confirmed that the owners and managers of such companies are applying strategies, which are rational from their point of view, but not from the perspective of real market conditions. It is argued therefore that the game theory is for them a solution in enhancing competences and performance of their organizations. Based on randomized sample of Polish micro and small companies the paper aimed to find out if the managers apply the game theory rationales when choosing price strategy when enter the market. It was confirmed that they do not and that they don't play Nash equilibrium in the strategic interaction when it comes to the price level. There was applied maxmin strategy, which maximises the worst - case scenario from the game. Thus there is a real chance that if entrepreneurs would analyze the situation with respect of game theory, their strategies would be more accurate and provide better outcomes.

A scenario-based assessment of the tsunami hazard in Palermo, northern Sicily, and the southern Tyrrhenian Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 500 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Dignan ◽  
Aaron Micallef ◽  
Christof Mueller ◽  
Attilio Sulli ◽  
Elisabetta Zizzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Maximum Height ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tsunami Waves

AbstractPalermo is a populous city situated on the northern coast of Sicily, bordered by the Tyrrhenian Sea. This central part of the Mediterranean Sea features dramatic bathymetry, numerous subaqueous landslides and is also the epicentre to many subaqueous earthquakes. As such, the region is an area prone to tsunamis. This investigation uses the Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) tsunami modelling package to simulate five near-field landslides, and five near-field earthquakes regarded as worst-case credible scenarios for Palermo. The seismic simulations produced waves on a very small scale, the largest being c. 5 cm at its maximum height, and none of the earthquake-generated tsunami waves produced any measurable inundation. The landslide simulations produced larger waves ranging from 1.9 to 12 m in maximum height, two of which resulted in inundation in areas surrounding the Port of Palermo. Sensitivity analysis identified that fault width and dislocation as well as landslide-specific gravity did have significant influence over maximum wave height, inundation and maximum run-up wave height. There are methodological issues limiting the extent to which this study forms a comprehensive tsunami hazard assessment of Palermo, such as gaps in bathymetric data, computational restrictions and lack of a probabilistic element. These issues are counteracted by the fact that this study does serve as a robust first step in identifying that landslides in the region may produce larger tsunami waves than earthquakes, and that the directionality of mass movement is critical in landslide-driven tsunami propagation in the southern Tyrrhenian region.

scholarly journals TSUNAMI MODELLING PROCEDURES TO REFINE COASTAL ARCHITECTURAL DESIGN STRATEGIES AT KUALA MUDA

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jestin Nordin ◽  
Andrew Charleson ◽  
Morten Gjerde
Keyword(s):  
Architectural Design ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tsunami Modelling ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
The Waves

This paper discusses the use of tsunami modelling to refine the strategies to be used in coastal architectural and planning design works in effort to minimize future tsunami impacts on the coastal buildings. The ability to recreate the characteristics of the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami waves and their impacts is the reason to use computer simulation as the main tool of this research project. The Cornell Multi-Grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) programme has been chosen to generate a series of tsunami events onto a one-kilometre-square area of Kuala Muda (north-west of Peninsular Malaysia) coastal area. COMCOT is expected to help practitioners and researchers make the best possible designs for this tsunami-threatened near-beach area. It has the capability to simulate the entire lifespan of a tsunami inclusive of the characteristics and the behaviour of the waves once it inundates the design area. It creates an opportunity to better understand and evaluate the performance of proposed designs in order to achieve the most tsunami-resistant design. The 2004 Sumatran Tsunami waves are considered the worst case scenario this area will experience. Therefore, the waves generated act upon proposed settlement patterns and buildings which are iteratively modified to achieve minimum tsunami damage. COMCOT outputs are used to propose coastal architectural design strategies for present and future nearbeach area developments, especially in the north-western coast of Malaysia. The final Tsunami Responsive Architecture (TRA) design is intended to be culturally acceptable, and to be extended with or without modification to suit other coastal areas at risk of tsunami.

scholarly journals Tsunami hazard assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2181-2191 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Renou ◽  
O. Lesne ◽  
A. Mangin ◽  
F. Rouffi ◽  
A. Atillah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
Damage Maps ◽  
Moroccan Coast

Abstract. In the framework of the three-year SCHEMA European project (www.schemaproject.org), we present a generic methodology developed to produce tsunami building vulnerability and impact maps. We apply this methodology to the Moroccan coast. This study focuses on the Bouregreg Valley which is at the junction between Rabat (administrative capital), and Salé. Both present large populations and new infrastructure development. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, Earth Observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this vulnerable area. Two tsunami scenarios were studied to estimate a realistic range of hazards on this coast: a worst-case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and a moderate scenario based on the Horseshoe earthquake of 28 February 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed the production of tsunami hazard maps (maximum inundation extent and maximum inundation depths). Moreover, the modelling results of these two scenarios were compared with the historical data available. A companion paper to this article (Atillah et al., 2011) presents the following steps of the methodology, namely the elaboration of building damage maps by crossing layers of building vulnerability and the so-inferred inundation depths.

scholarly journals Tsunami Hazard Evaluation for the Head of the Gulf of Elat–Aqaba, Northeastern Red Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amos Salamon ◽  
Eran Frucht ◽  
Steven N. Ward ◽  
Erez Gal ◽  
Marina Grigorovitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Red Sea ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Submarine Landslides ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Landslide Tsunami

Unique geological and seismotectonic settings may trigger a multicascading hazard and should be identified beforehand. Such is the head of the Gulf of Elat–Aqaba (HGEA) at the northeastern end of the Red Sea where its geology, tectonics, bathymetry, and earthquake and tsunami history exhibit clear potential for earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami generation. We thus investigated the possible tsunamigenic sources in the gulf and evaluated the resulting hazard at the HGEA. First, we assembled a bathymetric grid and adopted GeoClaw software to simulate most of the earthquake-tsunami scenarios. Next, we resolved the scheme of the largest possible tsunamigenic earthquakes along the deep basins of the Gulf of Elat (GEA) and the associated Dead Sea rift valley, as well as the potential tsunamigenic submarine landslides in the HGEA. The use of GeoClaw was verified against the 1995 tsunami generated by the Nuweiba Mw 7.2 earthquake, and then operated to simulate a suite of earthquake scenarios. Results showed that the marginal faults of Elat Basin pose the highest tsunami hazard to the Israeli part of the HGEA. To better assess that hazard, we screened the geology and seismotectonics of the HGEA and found that the Elat normal fault presents the worst-case scenario for Elat city. It is capable of generating a multicascading threat of earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami, local subsidence that can increase inundation, and above all, destructive ground motion. Scenarios of a tsunami caused by the worst-case earthquake on the Elat fault simulated by GeoClaw and Ward’s (Tsunami, The encyclopedia of solid earth geophysics. 2011, 1473–1493) approach, and submarine landslide in the HGEA simulated by Wang et al.’s (Geophys. J. Int., 2015, 201, 1534–1544) ‘Tsunami Squares’ approach, demonstrated waves as high as 4 m along these coasts. Accordingly, we constructed a map of the evacuation zone. We also show that strong ground-shaking and retreat of the sea at the HGEA should be considered a tsunami warning, although false alarms are inevitable. Furthermore, tsunami hazard exists all along the gulf and further assessments are needed to quantify this hazard and increase awareness among the area's population.

scholarly journals Modelling with Volna-OP2—Towards Tsunami Threat Reduction for the Irish Coastline

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Giles ◽  
Brian McConnell ◽  
Frédéric Dias
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Up

Tsunamis are infrequent events that have the potential to be extremely destructive. The last major tsunami to effect the Irish coastline was the Lisbon 1755 event. That event acts as a candidate worst case scenario for hazard assessment and the impacts on the Irish Coastline are presented here. As there is no general consensus on the 1755 earthquake source, multiple sources highlighted in the literature are investigated. These sources are used to generate the initial conditions and the resultant tsunami waves are simulated with the massively parallelised Volna-OP2 finite volume tsunami code. The hazard associated with the event is captured on three gradated levels. A reduced faster than real time tsunami ensemble is produced for the North-East Atlantic on a regional level in 93 s using two Nvidia V100 GPUs. By identifying the most vulnerable sections of the Irish coastline from this regional forecast, some locally refined simulations are further carried out in a faster than real time setting. As arrival times on the coastline can be on the O (mins), these faster than real time reduced ensembles are of great benefit for tsunami warning. Volna-OP2’s capabilities in this respect are clearly demonstrated here. Finally, high resolution inundation simulations, which build upon the ensemble results, are carried out. To date this study provides the best estimate of assessing the hazard associated with a Lisbon-type tsunami event for the Irish coastline. The results of the inundation mapping highlight that along the vulnerable sections of coastline, inundation is constrained to low-lying areas with maximum run-up heights of 3.4 m being found.

scholarly journals Spatial modelling of tsunami exposure areas at Ujung Genteng coastal, Sukabumi, West Java

2021 ◽  
Vol 884 (1) ◽  
pp. 012041
Author(s):  
Dinda Zannuba Arifah ◽  
S. Supriatna
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Eurasian Plate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Hazard Class ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tectonic Plates ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Tsunami Disaster

Abstract Indonesia is a country located between three tectonic plates. It is the Eurasian Plate, the Indo-Australian Plate, and the Pacific Plate. The location caused Indonesia to be prone to disasters caused by the movement of plates, one of which was a tsunami. Tsunamis are high waves that hit ports or beaches. Relatively sloping beaches with low beaches can cause larger tsunami waves. This study was carried out on the coastal of Ujung Genteng, Sukabumi. The purpose of this study is to analysis the area of tsunami exposure that occurred on the coast of Ujung Genteng. GIS-based spatial modelling is used to combine different types of data, both spatial and non-spatial data to be processed into tsunami exposure area information. Modelling of the inundation was carried out with mathematical calculations developed by Berryman (2006). By modeling the tsunami with a worst-case scenario of wave height of 20 meters, it was obtained that the tsunami exposed area reached 663.29 Ha. The area belongs to a low hazard class of 2.59 Ha, a medium hazard class of 29.05 Ha, and an area that belongs to a high hazard class of 631.65 Ha. The results of this modeling are expected to be a reference for tsunami disaster mitigation planning in Ujung Genteng.

Stability analysis and tsunamigenic mass-failure scenarios in Palinuro volcano complex, Tyrrhenian sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glauco Gallotti ◽  
Guido Ventura ◽  
Alberto Armigliato ◽  
Filippo Zaniboni ◽  
Gianluca Pagnoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Limit Equilibrium ◽  
Hydrothermal Activity ◽  
Slope Instability ◽  
Volcanic Complex ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
Volcanic Area ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Volcanic Chain

&lt;p&gt;The Palinuro volcanic chain is located nearly 80 km offshore the Campania coasts (Italy), in the southern sector of the Tyrrhenian Sea. As many as 15 distinct volcanic edifices have been recently detected that covers a 90 km long and 20 km wide belt. The associated volcanism is still poorly understood but the presence of shallow seismicity and active hydrothermal activity suggest that this large volcanic complex is still active. Specific sectors of the chain show the presence of ongoing slope instability and thus the chance of mass movements cannot be ruled out in case of seismic or volcanic activity. In this work, a stability analysis for typical seismic loads in such a volcanic area has been performed through a revised limit equilibrium approach. In the revealed weaker sections, three mass failures of different scales have been reconstructed and their motion has been calculated by means of numerical models. The tsunami produced by each slide has been simulated, and considerable waves have been found in two of the three hypothesized scenarios. For the biggest slide of 2.4 km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;, waves as high as 10 m could reach portions of the Calabria coasts with consequent hazardous impact.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study belongs to a series of works focused on the volcanoes of the Tyrrhenian Sea that are very many and still poorly investigated. Considering scenarios involving mass movements of different sizes with distinct characteristics and based on geomorphological features seems to be a viable strategy to evaluate the tsunami hazard in the region. &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document