scholarly journals The Performance of Three Exponential Decay Models in Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change After Landfall Over China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Liu ◽  
Yuqing Wang ◽  
Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Decay ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Exponential Decay Model ◽  
Static Energy ◽  
Translational Speed

In this study, the performance of three exponential decay models in estimating intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) after landfall over China is evaluated based on the best-track TC data during 1980–2018. Results indicate that the three models evaluated can reproduce the weakening trend of TCs after landfall, but two of them (M1 and M2) tend to overestimate TC intensity and one (M3) tends to overestimate TC intensity in the first 12 h and underestimate TC intensity afterwards. M2 has the best performance with the smallest errors among the three models within 24 h after landfall. M3 has better performance than M1 in the first 20 h after landfall, but its errors increase largely afterwards. M1 and M2 show systematic positive biases in the southeastern China likely due to the fact that they have not explicitly included any topographic effect. M3 has better performance in the southeastern China, where it was originally attempted, but shows negative biases in the eastern China. The relative contributions of different factors, including landfall intensity, translational speed, 850-hPa moist static energy, and topography, to model errors are examined based on classification analyses. Results indicate that the landfall intensity contributes about 18%, translational speed, moist static energy and topography contribute equally about 15% to the model errors. It is strongly suggested that the TC characteristics and the time-dependent decay constant determined by environmental conditions, topography and land cover properties, should be considered in a good exponential decay model of TC weakening after landfall.

scholarly journals Recent Advances in Our Understanding of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Processes from Airborne Observations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 650
Author(s):  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Change Processes ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Secondary Eyewall Formation ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Upper Level

Recent (past ~15 years) advances in our understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change processes using aircraft data are summarized here. The focus covers a variety of spatiotemporal scales, regions of the TC inner core, and stages of the TC lifecycle, from preformation to major hurricane status. Topics covered include (1) characterizing TC structure and its relationship to intensity change; (2) TC intensification in vertical shear; (3) planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes and air–sea interaction; (4) upper-level warm core structure and evolution; (5) genesis and development of weak TCs; and (6) secondary eyewall formation/eyewall replacement cycles (SEF/ERC). Gaps in our airborne observational capabilities are discussed, as are new observing technologies to address these gaps and future directions for airborne TC intensity change research.

scholarly journals A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (10) ◽  
pp. 2113-2134 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Jonathan R. Moskaitis ◽  
Joel W. Feldmeier ◽  
Ronald J. Ferek ◽  
Mark Beaubien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Naval Research ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
High Definition ◽  
Cyclone Intensity

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes.

Tree windthrow and forest soil turnover

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 386-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Norton
Keyword(s):  
Forest Soil ◽  
Exponential Decay ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Soil Development ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Important Influence ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Canopy Trees ◽  
Decay Model ◽  
Exponential Decay Model

Soil turnover as a result of tree windthrow has an important influence on soil development and plant distribution in forests. Estimates of the time needed for soil turnover in a given area are often made, but unless these take into account the potential for reestablishment of canopy trees onto sites previously affected by windthrow, they are likely to substantially underestimate turnover time. Soil turnover is not a regular, uniform process, but rather results in a mosaic of soils with different turnover histories. Because soil turnover follows an exponential decay model, some area of soil will never be turned over. As it is therefore not possible to define the time when all the soil in an area has been turned over, it is proposed that soil turnover half-life (the time at which half the soil has been turned over) be used as a measure of soil turnover.

scholarly journals Impacts of Shallow Convection on MJO Simulation: A Moist Static Energy and Moisture Budget Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 2417-2431 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiongqiong Cai ◽  
Guang J. Zhang ◽  
Tianjun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Shallow Convection ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Static Energy

Abstract The role of shallow convection in Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation is examined in terms of the moist static energy (MSE) and moisture budgets. Two experiments are carried out using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 (CAM3.0): a “CTL” run and an “NSC” run that is the same as the CTL except with shallow convection disabled below 700 hPa between 20°S and 20°N. Although the major features in the mean state of outgoing longwave radiation, 850-hPa winds, and vertical structure of specific humidity are reasonably reproduced in both simulations, moisture and clouds are more confined to the planetary boundary layer in the NSC run. While the CTL run gives a better simulation of the MJO life cycle when compared with the reanalysis data, the NSC shows a substantially weaker MJO signal. Both the reanalysis data and simulations show a recharge–discharge mechanism in the MSE evolution that is dominated by the moisture anomalies. However, in the NSC the development of MSE and moisture anomalies is weaker and confined to a shallow layer at the developing phases, which may prevent further development of deep convection. By conducting the budget analysis on both the MSE and moisture, it is found that the major biases in the NSC run are largely attributed to the vertical and horizontal advection. Without shallow convection, the lack of gradual deepening of upward motion during the developing stage of MJO prevents the lower troposphere above the boundary layer from being preconditioned for deep convection.

scholarly journals Precipitation Properties Observed during Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (11) ◽  
pp. 4476-4492 ◽  
Author(s):  
George R. Alvey III ◽  
Jonathan Zawislak ◽  
Edward Zipser
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Strong Convection

Abstract Using a 15-yr (1998–2012) multiplatform dataset of passive microwave satellite data [tropical cyclone–passive microwave (TC-PMW)] for Atlantic and east Pacific storms, this study examines the relative importance of various precipitation properties, specifically convective intensity, symmetry, and area, to the spectrum of intensity changes observed in tropical cyclones. Analyses are presented not only spatially in shear-relative quadrants around the center, but also every 6 h during a 42-h period encompassing 18 h prior to onset of intensification to 24 h after. Compared to those with slower intensification rates, storms with higher intensification rates (including rapid intensification) have more symmetric distributions of precipitation prior to onset of intensification, as well as a greater overall areal coverage of precipitation. The rate of symmetrization prior to, and during, intensification increases with increasing intensity change as rapidly intensifying storms are more symmetric than slowly intensifying storms. While results also clearly show important contributions from strong convection, it is concluded that intensification is more closely related to the evolution of the areal, radial, and symmetric distribution of precipitation that is not necessarily intense.

scholarly journals Moist Static Energy Budget of MJO-like Disturbances in the Atmosphere of a Zonally Symmetric Aquaplanet

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 2782-2804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Allan Andersen ◽  
Zhiming Kuang
Keyword(s):  
Spectral Feature ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Moist Static Energy ◽  
Eddy Activity ◽  
Vertical Advection ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Synoptic Eddies ◽  
Moist Static Energy Budget ◽  
Static Energy

Abstract A Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-like spectral feature is observed in the time–space spectra of precipitation and column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) for a zonally symmetric aquaplanet simulated with Superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SPCAM). This disturbance possesses the basic structural and propagation features of the observed MJO. To explore the processes involved in propagation and maintenance of this disturbance, this study analyzes the MSE budget of the disturbance. The authors observe that the disturbances propagate both eastward and poleward. The column-integrated longwave heating is the only significant source of column-integrated MSE acting to maintain the MJO-like anomaly balanced against the combination of column-integrated horizontal and vertical advection of MSE and latent heat flux. Eastward propagation of the MJO-like disturbance is associated with MSE generated by both column integrated horizontal and vertical advection of MSE, with the column longwave heating generating MSE that retards the propagation. The contribution to the eastward propagation by the column-integrated horizontal advection of MSE is dominated by synoptic eddies. Further decomposition indicates that the advection contribution to the eastward propagation is dominated by meridional advection of MSE by anomalous synoptic eddies caused by the suppression of eddy activity ahead of the MJO convection. This suppression is linked to the barotropic conversion mechanism, with the gradients of the low-frequency wind experienced by the synoptic eddies within the MJO envelope acting to modulate the eddy kinetic energy. The meridional eddy advection’s contribution to poleward propagation is dominated by the mean state’s (meridionally varying) eddy activity acting on the anomalous MSE gradients associated with the MJO.

scholarly journals An Exponential Decay Model for the Deterministic Correlations in Axial Compressors

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangwei Liu ◽  
Yumeng Tang ◽  
Baojie Liu ◽  
Lipeng Lu
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Decay ◽  
Equation System ◽  
Time Averaging ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Flow Solver ◽  
Axial Compressors ◽  
Routine Design ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Exponential Decay Model ◽  
Two Stages

The unsteady blade row interaction (UBRI) is inherent and usually has a large effect on performance in multistage axial compressors. The effect could be considered by using the average-passage equation system (APES) in steady-state environment by introducing the deterministic correlations (DC). How to model the DC is the key in APES method. The primary purpose of this study is to develop a DC model for compressor routine design. The APES technique is investigated by using a 3D viscous unsteady and time-averaging Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solver developed in our previous studies. Based on DC characteristics and its effects on time-averaged flow, an exponential decay DC model is proposed and implemented into the developed time-averaging solver. Steady, unsteady, and time-averaging simulations are conducted on the investigation of the UBRI and the DC model in the first transonic stage of NASA 67 and the first two stages of a multistage compressor. The DC distributions and mean flow fields from the DC model are compared with the unsteady simulations. The comparison indicates that the proposed model can take into account the major part of UBRI and provide significant improvements for predicting compressor characteristics and spanwise distributions of flow properties in axial compressors, compared with the steady mixing plane method.

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