Study of epidemiological behaviour of malaria and its control in the Purulia district of West Bengal, India (2016–2020)

Purulia is a malaria-prone district in West Bengal, India, with approximately half of the blocks defined as malaria endemic. We analyzed the malaria case in each block of the Purulia district from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. As per the API, 20 blocks of Purulia were assigned to four different categories (0–3) and mapped using ArcGIS software. An exponential decay model was fitted to forecast the trend of malaria cases for each block of Purulia (2021–2025). There was a sharp decrease in total malaria cases and API from 2016 to 2020 due to the mass distribution of LLINs. The majority of cases (72.63%) were found in ≥ 15-year age group. Males were more prone to malaria (60.09%). Malaria was highly prevalent among Scheduled Tribes (48.44%). Six blocks were reported in Category 3 (high risk) and none in Category 0 (no risk) in 2016, while no blocks were determined to be in Category 3, and three blocks were in Category 0 in 2020. The exponential decay model prediction is oriented towards gaining malaria-free status in thirteen blocks of Purulia by 2025. This study will incite the government to uphold and strengthen the current efforts to meet the malaria elimination goals.

The Performance of Three Exponential Decay Models in Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change After Landfall Over China

In this study, the performance of three exponential decay models in estimating intensity change of tropical cyclones (TCs) after landfall over China is evaluated based on the best-track TC data during 1980–2018. Results indicate that the three models evaluated can reproduce the weakening trend of TCs after landfall, but two of them (M1 and M2) tend to overestimate TC intensity and one (M3) tends to overestimate TC intensity in the first 12 h and underestimate TC intensity afterwards. M2 has the best performance with the smallest errors among the three models within 24 h after landfall. M3 has better performance than M1 in the first 20 h after landfall, but its errors increase largely afterwards. M1 and M2 show systematic positive biases in the southeastern China likely due to the fact that they have not explicitly included any topographic effect. M3 has better performance in the southeastern China, where it was originally attempted, but shows negative biases in the eastern China. The relative contributions of different factors, including landfall intensity, translational speed, 850-hPa moist static energy, and topography, to model errors are examined based on classification analyses. Results indicate that the landfall intensity contributes about 18%, translational speed, moist static energy and topography contribute equally about 15% to the model errors. It is strongly suggested that the TC characteristics and the time-dependent decay constant determined by environmental conditions, topography and land cover properties, should be considered in a good exponential decay model of TC weakening after landfall.

A Comparison of Surface and Total Deltamethrin Levels of Insecticide-Treated Nets and Estimation of the Effective Insecticidal Lifetime

The ability to anticipate the useful lifetime of an insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) would provide a proactive approach for planning net distribution programs. Therefore, we used an exponential decay model of deltamethrin depletion to predict the effective insecticidal lifetime of PermaNet® 2.0 nets used in the Lao PDR. Residual deltamethrin was measured using two nondestructive analytical field methods; X-ray fluorescence (total levels) and a colorimetric field test (surface levels) at 12 and 24 months postdistribution. The model assumes that the 12-month depletion rate can be used to predict future levels. The median total and surface deltamethrin levels for the Lao nets at 12 months were 31.2 and 0.0743 mg/m2, respectively. By defining a failed net as having total deltamethrin levels of less than 15 mg/m2 or a surface level less than 0.0028 mg/m2, it was predicted that 50% of the group of nets will fail at about 27 months after distribution. Insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) are recognized as important tools for reducing malaria transmission in malaria-endemic regions.1–3 The effectiveness of ITNs at reducing malaria transmission relies on their ability to act as chemical as well as physical barriers. Over time, the accumulation of holes, rips, and tears as well as depletion of insecticide potency, reduces the efficacy of ITNs. Although the accumulation of holes results in decreased personal protection, the presence of remaining insecticide still has the potential to reduce malaria.4 It has been suggested by mathematical models that 94% of transmission can be prevented if 80% of the population continues to use these nets.4 Thus, monitoring insecticide levels along with physical integrity are important in recognizing when an ITN is no longer effective. Although damage to the nets can be visually ascertained, monitoring insecticidal potency is often assessed by using mosquito bioassays or chemical techniques. Mosquito bioassays, such as the WHO Cone Test, are the “Gold Standard” for assessing ITNs. Although mosquito bioassays are important elements in evaluating net efficacy, it is difficult to compare net performance across geographical regions where mosquito behavior and insecticide resistance are quite variable. Therefore, this report focuses on measuring surface and total residual insecticide levels by chemical means as a practical way to monitor and predict net longevity. The chemical techniques used to measure insecticide levels usually result in the partial destruction of an ITN. Spectroscopic methods such as X-ray fluorescence (XRF)5,6 and surface level measurements such as the colorimetric field test for cyanopyrethroids (CFT)7 provide alternative insecticide analysis techniques that are nondestructive to the net, thus allowing the same net to be monitored for insecticide levels over time. The XRF method measures the total (TL) amount of insecticide per area and the CFT measures available insecticide on the net surface (SL) via an abrasion technique using filter paper. Deltamethrin adhered to the filter paper is measured using a colorimetric cyanopyrethroid analysis method.7 The deltamethrin molecule contains both cyano and bromine groups, thus allowing it to be detected by the CFT and XRF, respectively.5,7 In this report, we describe the use of both XRF and CFT methods were on the same net after 12 and 24 months of use. The objectives of this report are to apply an exponential decay model for predicting the effective longevity of ITNs based on TL and SL deltamethrin measured after 12 months of use. The model is based on an assumption that by 12 months, factors contributing to insecticidal loss, such as washing and storage habits have become routinely established, thereby resulting in a depletion rate constant, from which future levels can be predicted.

Half-life of Ingested Antibodies in Anopheles Stephensi Mosquito Is Less Than 10 Hours

Background: A transmission-blocking vaccine (TBV) can be a useful tool to reduce malaria infection in an endemic area. For a TBV, elicited antibody (either by itself or working with complement) has a critical role in the mechanism of action, which for most known TBV targets, blockade will occur within the mosquito. However, no study has quantitively assessed the longevity of ingested antibody in Anopheles mosquito vectors. Methods: A mixture of mouse or human monoclonal antibody (mAb), human red blood cells and human serum were fed to An. stephensi mosquitoes, and their midguts were collected at multiple time points (0 to 48 hours; 12 mosquitoes at each time point) after feeds. The reactivity of antibodies against target antigen (integrity of antigen-binding region of the antibody) in each midgut was assessed by ELISA. For one mouse mAb, integrity of antibody constant region was also determined by western blot (WB) with a mouse-specific secondary antibody.Results: First, the half-life of mouse anti-Pfs25 mAb, 4B7, was determined both by ELISA and WB in three independent assays. When the ELISA and WB signals were plotted against time after feed, both data reasonably fit one-phase exponential decay models (R2 B 0.70), and the half-lives were estimated as 8.6 hours by ELISA and 4.7 hours by WB. To determine whether the longevity was affected by target antigens or species of antibody, two human anti-Pfs25 mAbs (AB1245 and AB2544), one human anti-Pfs48/45 mAb (TB31F), and one mouse anti-Pfs230 mAb (15A4-1B12) were examined by ELISA in two or three independent assays. The ELISA results of each additional mAb also reasonably fit to a one-phase exponential decay model (R2 a 0.78), and the half-lives of those mAbs were similar to that of 4B7 (7.2 to 9.3 hours), except AB1245 which showed a half-life of 4.6 hours. Conclusions: Depending on the methods of detection and mAbs used, the longevity of ingested antibody varied around 2-fold, but all estimated half-lives were < 10 hours. These data suggest a TBV with antibody dependent mechanism of action(s) is more likely to succeed when targeting earlier stages of parasites (or parasite interaction) in mosquitoes.

Estimation and verification of fractional derivative-based permeability of coals considering mining-induced stresses

To overcome the inaccuracy of the traditional transient pulse test, a new fractional derivative-based permeability estimation formula based on the transient pulse test is proposed to describe the pressure difference decay of a coal body subjected to mining-induced stresses. The permeability of coal specimens under mining disturbance conditions is measured using the MTS815 rock mechanics test system. The experimental results show that the transient pulse test based on the fractional derivative model provides a much better estimation of the coal specimen’s permeability than the conventional exponential decay model. Analyzing the evolution of the coal’s permeability shows that the permeability tends to decrease in the pre-peak compaction stage, following which it gradually increases in the plastic phase, and then increases sharply in the post-peak phase. The significance of the fractional derivative order γ is discussed, and its analysis shows that the solid-liquid interaction inside the specimen becomes complicated when the stress within the coal specimen changes.

Interruptions of the FXN GAA Repeat Tract Delay the Age at Onset of Friedreich’s Ataxia in a Location Dependent Manner

Friedreich’s ataxia (FRDA) is a comparatively rare autosomal recessive neurological disorder primarily caused by the homozygous expansion of a GAA trinucleotide repeat in intron 1 of the FXN gene. The repeat expansion causes gene silencing that results in deficiency of the frataxin protein leading to mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress and cell death. The GAA repeat tract in some cases may be impure with sequence variations called interruptions. It has previously been observed that large interruptions of the GAA repeat tract, determined by abnormal MboII digestion, are very rare. Here we have used triplet repeat primed PCR (TP PCR) assays to identify small interruptions at the 5′ and 3′ ends of the GAA repeat tract through alterations in the electropherogram trace signal. We found that contrary to large interruptions, small interruptions are more common, with 3′ interruptions being most frequent. Based on detection of interruptions by TP PCR assay, the patient cohort (n = 101) was stratified into four groups: 5′ interruption, 3′ interruption, both 5′ and 3′ interruptions or lacking interruption. Those patients with 3′ interruptions were associated with shorter GAA1 repeat tracts and later ages at disease onset. The age at disease onset was modelled by a group-specific exponential decay model. Based on this modelling, a 3′ interruption is predicted to delay disease onset by approximately 9 years relative to those lacking 5′ and 3′ interruptions. This highlights the key role of interruptions at the 3′ end of the GAA repeat tract in modulating the disease phenotype and its impact on prognosis for the patient.

Emissions Characterization of Volatile Organic Compounds and Health Risk Assessment in Two Fresh Furniture

The emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from two common furniture products including a dressing stool and a bedside cabinet were measured in an environmental chamber. The VOCs were collected by Tenax-TA tubes and measured by thermal desorption and gas chromatography (FID). 19 kinds of VOCs were quantitatively analyzed by the external standard method. The results showed that the VOCs concentrations emitted from the two kinds of furniture were quite different, but benzene homologues were the principal pollutant. The concentrations of VOCs released from the furniture showed decreases exponentially with time and it could be fitted well by a double-exponential decay model. The concentrations of VOCs increased rapidly and reached the maximums at around 1 or 2 h, and then declined with the slowdown of the release rate. Moreover, the potential VOCs release could be evaluated by the release parameters of this model. In addition, health risk assessment of benzene released from dressing stools and bedside cabinets was performed. The risk of benzene released from two kinds of furniture decreased with time. The R value of benzene released from the dressing stool at 72 h remained at least two orders of magnitude larger than 1 × 10−6, indicating a high risk of carcinogenesis. The study will provide a reliable reference in assessing VOCs emissions and health risks in fresh furniture.

Measurement Time Reduction by Means of Mathematical Modeling of Enzyme Mediated RedOx Reaction in Food Samples Biosensors

The possibility of measuring in real time the different types of analytes present in food is becoming a requirement in food industry. In this context, biosensors are presented as an alternative to traditional analytical methodologies due to their specificity, high sensitivity and ability to work in real time. It has been observed that the behavior of the analysis curves of the biosensors follow a trend that is reproducible among all the measurements and that is specific to the reaction that occurs in the electrochemical cell and the analyte being analyzed. Kinetic reaction modeling is a widely used method to model processes that occur within the sensors, and this leads to the idea that a mathematical approximation can mimic the electrochemical reaction that takes place while the analysis of the sample is ongoing. For this purpose, a novel mathematical model is proposed to approximate the enzymatic reaction within the biosensor in real time, so the output of the measurement can be estimated in advance. The proposed model is based on adjusting an exponential decay model to the response of the biosensors using a nonlinear least-square method to minimize the error. The obtained results show that our proposed approach is capable of reducing about 40% the required measurement time in the sample analysis phase, while keeping the error rate low enough to meet the accuracy standards of the food industry.

A volumetric prediction model for postoperative cyst shrinkage

Objectives With only limited information available on dimensional changes after jaw cyst surgery, postoperative cyst shrinkage remains largely unpredictable. We aimed to propose a model for volumetric shrinkage based on time elapsed since cyst surgery. Material and methods We used data from patients that underwent cyst enucleation or decompression between 2007 and 2017 and had at least three computed tomography (CT) scans per patient. We fitted one simple exponential decay model [V(t) = V0 · e−ɑt] and one model with a patient-specific decay rate [Vk(t) = V0 · e−βt + γkt]. Results Based on 108 CT scans from 36 patients (median age at surgery: 45.5 years, IQR: 32.3–55.3, 44% female), our simple exponential decay model is V(t) = V0· e−0.0035t where V(t) is the residual cyst volume after time t elapsed since surgery, V0 is the initial cyst volume, and e is the base of the natural logarithm. Considering a patient-specific decay rate, the model is Vk(t) = V0· e−0.0049t + γkt where γk is normally distributed, with expectation 0 and standard deviation 0.0041. Conclusions Using an exponential regression model, we were able to reliably estimate volumetric shrinkage after jaw cyst surgery. The patient-specific decay rate substantially improved the fit of the model, whereas adding specific covariates as interaction effects to model the decay rate did not provide any significant improvement. Clinical relevance Estimating postoperative cyst shrinkage is relevant for both treatment planning of jaw cyst surgery as well as evaluating the clinical success of the surgical approach.

Anthracnose risk establishment based on age-related susceptibility of grape leaves, flowers and berries to infection by Elsinoë ampelina

Anthracnose is an important disease of grapevines caused by the fungus Elsinoë ampelina. In recent years, there have been regular outbreaks in humid grape-growing regions around the world. Young leaves and berries are reported to be highly susceptible to E. ampelina, but detailed and seasonal development of age-related susceptibility remains unclear. Experiments were conducted under greenhouse and vineyard conditions by inoculating 1 to-19-day-old leaves, flowers and berries at different phenological stages of three grapevine cultivars (Vandal-Cliche, Marquette and Vidal). Leaf susceptibility was highest when inoculated at 1-2 days old, and inoculated leaves were moderately susceptible at 3-6 days old and almost resistant when older than 6 days. The influence of leaf age on anthracnose relative severity was adequately described by an exponential decay model. The susceptibility of the inflorescences was high when inoculated from their initiation to the full flowering (50% fall of the caps), and the inflorescences/flowers were moderately susceptible until veraison, after which the berries were practically resistant. The flower/berry susceptibility as a function of degree-days accumulated since April 1 was modeled using a sigmoid model. Based on this model, 50% disease incidence is reached when 656, 543 and 550 degree days are accumulated for the cultivars Vandal-Cliche, Marquette and Vidal, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of anthracnose development is high from bud-break to fruit set, and on newly-emerged leaves either early in the season or following pruning. More knowledge on anthracnose epidemiology is needed, but these results could be used to improve timing of fungicide applications and pruning activities.