scholarly journals Optimisation of Parameters in a German Bight Circulation Model by 4DVAR Assimilation of Current and Water Level Observations

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth ◽  
Silvia Foerderreuther ◽  
Jochen Horstmann ◽  
Joanna Staneva

Uncertain parameters in a 3D barotropic circulation model of the German Bight are estimated with a variational optimisation approach. Surface current measurements from a high frequency (HF) radar are used in combination with acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and tide gauge observations as input for a 4DVAR assimilation scheme. The required cost function gradients are estimated using an adjoint model code. The focus of the study is on systematic errors of the model with the control vector including parameters of the bathymetry, bottom roughness, open boundary forcing, meteorological forcing as well as the turbulence model. The model uses the same bathymetry, open boundary forcing, and metereological forcing as the operational model run at the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH). The baroclinic BSH model is used as a reference to put the performance of the optimised model into perspective. It is shown that the optimised model has better agreement with HF radar data and tide gauge observations both within the fortnight training period and the test period 1 month later. Current profile measurements taken at two platforms indicate that both models have comparable error magnitudes at those locations. The optimised model was also compared with independent drifter data. In this case, drifter simulations based on the BSH model and the respective operational drift model including some surface wave effects were used as a reference. Again, these comparison showed very similar results overall, with some larger errors of the tuned model in very shallow areas, where no observations were used for the tuning and surface wave effects, which are only explicitly considered in the BSH model, play a more important role. The tuned model seems to be slightly more dissipative than the BSH model with more energy entering through the western boundary and less energy leaving toward the north. It also became evident that the 4DVAR cost function minimisation process is complicated by momentum advection, which leads to non-differentiable dependencies of the model with respect to the control vector. It turned out that the omission of momentum advection in the adjoint code still leads to robust estimates of descent directions.

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 659-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Marmain ◽  
A. Molcard ◽  
P. Forget ◽  
A. Barth ◽  
Y. Ourmières

Abstract. HF radar measurements are used to optimize surface wind forcing and baroclinic open boundary condition forcing in order to constrain model coastal surface currents. This method is applied to a northwestern Mediterranean (NWM) regional primitive equation model configuration. A new radar data set, provided by two radars deployed in the Toulon area (France), is used. To our knowledge, this is the first time that radar measurements of the NWM Sea are assimilated into a circulation model. Special attention has been paid to the improvement of the model coastal current in terms of speed and position. The data assimilation method uses an ensemble Kalman smoother to optimize forcing in order to improve the model trajectory. Twin experiments are initially performed to evaluate the method skills. Real measurements are then fed into the circulation model and significant improvements to the modeled surface currents, when compared to observations, are obtained.


2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9125-9139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeline Bichet ◽  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Lawrence Mudryk

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.


Ocean Science ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 885-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Wobus ◽  
G. I. Shapiro ◽  
J. M. Huthnance ◽  
M. A. M. Maqueda ◽  
Y. Aksenov

Abstract. We investigate the flow of brine-enriched shelf water from Storfjorden (Svalbard) into Fram Strait and onto the western Svalbard Shelf using a regional set-up of NEMO-SHELF, a 3-D numerical ocean circulation model. The model is set up with realistic bathymetry, atmospheric forcing, open boundary conditions and tides. The model has 3 km horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels in the sh-coordinate system which is specially designed to resolve bottom boundary layer processes. In a series of modelling experiments we focus on the influence of tides on the propagation of the dense water plume by comparing results from tidal and non-tidal model runs. Comparisons of non-tidal to tidal simulations reveal a hotspot of tidally induced horizontal diffusion leading to the lateral dispersion of the plume at the southernmost headland of Spitsbergen which is in close proximity to the plume path. As a result the lighter fractions in the diluted upper layer of the plume are drawn into the shallow coastal current that carries Storfjorden water onto the western Svalbard Shelf, while the dense bottom layer continues to sink down the slope. This bifurcation of the plume into a diluted shelf branch and a dense downslope branch is enhanced by tidally induced shear dispersion at the headland. Tidal effects at the headland are shown to cause a net reduction in the downslope flux of Storfjorden water into the deep Fram Strait. This finding contrasts previous results from observations of a dense plume on a different shelf without abrupt topography.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krysten Rutherford ◽  
Katja Fennel

Abstract. The circulation in the northwestern North Atlantic Ocean is highly complex, characterized by the confluence of two major western boundary current systems and several shelf currents. Here we present the first comprehensive analysis of transport paths and timescales for the northwestern North Atlantic shelf, which is useful for estimating ventilation rates, describing circulation and mixing, characterizing the composition of water masses with respect to different source regions, and elucidating rates and patterns of biogeochemical processing, species dispersal and genetic connectivity. Our analysis uses dye and age tracers within a high-resolution circulation model of the region, divided into 9 sub-regions, to diagnose retention times, transport pathways, and transit times. Retention times are shortest on the Scotian Shelf (~ 3 months) where the inshore and shelf-break branches of the coastal current system result in high along-shelf transport to the southwest. Larger retention times are simulated on the Grand Banks (~ 4 months), in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (~ 12 months) and the Gulf of Maine (~ 6 months). Source water analysis shows that Scotian Shelf water is primarily comprised of waters from the Grand Banks and Gulf of St. Lawrence, with varying composition across the shelf. Contributions from the Gulf of St. Lawrence are larger at near-shore locations, whereas locations near the shelf break have larger contributions from the Grand Banks and slope waters. Waters from the deep slope have little connectivity with the shelf, because the shelf-break current inhibits transport across the shelf break. Grand Banks and Gulf of St. Lawrence waters are therefore dominant controls on biogeochemical properties, and on setting and sustaining planktonic communities on the Scotian Shelf.


2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. V. Stanev ◽  
F. Ziemer ◽  
J. Schulz-Stellenfleth ◽  
J. Seemann ◽  
J. Staneva ◽  
...  

AbstractAn observation network operating three Wellen Radars (WERAs) in the German Bight, which are part of the Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA), is presented in detail. Major consideration is given to expanding the patchy observations over the entire German Bight on a 1-km grid and producing state estimates at intratidal scales, and 6- and 12-h forecasts. This was achieved with the help of the proposed spatiotemporal optimal interpolation (STOI) method, which efficiently uses observations and simulations from a free model run within an analysis window of one or two tidal cycles. In this way the method maximizes the use of available observations and can be considered as a step toward the “best surface current estimate.” The performance of the analysis was investigated based on the achieved reduction of the misfit between model and observations. The complex dynamics of the study domain was illustrated based on the spatial and temporal changes of tidal ellipses for the M2 and M4 constituents from HF radar observations. It was demonstrated that blending observations and numerical modeling facilitates physical interpretation of processes such as the nonlinear distortion of the Kelvin wave in the coastal zone and in particular in front of the Elbe and Weser estuaries. Comparisons with in situ data acquired outside the area covered by the HF radar demonstrated that the analysis method is able to propagate the HF radar information to larger spatial scales.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lojze Žust ◽  
Matjaž Ličer ◽  
Anja Fettich ◽  
Matej Kristan

<p>Interactions between atmospheric forcing, topographic constraints to air and water flow, and resonant character of the basin make sea level modeling in Adriatic a challenging problem. In this study we present an ensemble deep-neural-network-based sea level forecasting method HIDRA, which outperforms our setup of the general ocean circulation model ensemble (NEMO v3.6) for all forecast lead times and at a minuscule fraction of the numerical cost (order of 2 × 10<sup>-6</sup>). HIDRA exhibits larger bias but lower RMSE than our setup of NEMO over most of the residual sea level bins. It introduces a trainable atmospheric spatial encoder and employs fusion of atmospheric and sea level features into a self-contained network which enables discriminative feature learning. HIDRA architecture building blocks are experimentally analyzed in detail and compared to alternative approaches. Results show the importance of sea level input for forecast lead times below 24 h and the importance of atmospheric input for longer lead times. The best performance is achieved by considering the input as the total sea level, split into disjoint sets of tidal and residual signals. This enables HIDRA to optimize the prediction fidelity with respect to atmospheric forcing while compensating for the errors in the tidal model. HIDRA is trained and analysed on a ten-year (2006-2016) timeseries of atmospheric surface fields from a single member of ECMWF atmospheric ensemble. In the testing phase, both HIDRA and NEMO ensemble systems are forced by the ECMWF atmospheric ensemble. Their performance is evaluated on a one-year (2019) hourly time series from tide gauge in Koper (Slovenia). Spectral and continuous wavelet analysis of the forecasts at the semi-diurnal frequency (12 h)<sup>-1</sup> and at the ground-state basin seiche frequency (21.5 h)<sup>-1</sup> is performed. The energy at the basin seiche in the HIDRA forecast is close to the observed, while our setup of NEMO underestimates it. Analyses of the January 2015 and November 2019 storm surges indicate that HIDRA has learned to mimic the timing and amplitude of basin seiches.</p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. S. M. Isa ◽  
R. J. Langley ◽  
S. Khamas ◽  
A. A. M. Isa ◽  
M. S. I. M. Zin ◽  
...  

In this paper, the planar phased array antenna scan blindness characteristic has been analyzed and a novel technique of eliminating the scan blindness for the phased array antenna has been introduced. The scan blindness of the center element has been used to present the entire phased array characteristic. The array scan blindness characteristics have been simulated and analyzed using CST Microwave Studio (CST MWS). The 5×3 planar phased array antenna radiation patterns against the pattern elevation angle direction has been simulated and compiled. The array’s scan blindness has been determined at the angle of approximately 47⁰. The miniaturized capacitive loaded Electromagnetic Band Gap (EBG) has been developed and introduced between the array elements to eliminate the problem. Based on the simulated results, it is shown that the use of a miniaturized EBG is effective in reducing the surface wave effects and eliminates the scan blindness in the array radiation pattern. This novel finding is very useful to improve the antenna directive efficiency for the directional radar and satellite application.


2017 ◽  
Vol 142 (4) ◽  
pp. 2590-2590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying-Tsong Lin ◽  
Timothy F. Duda ◽  
Arthur Newhall ◽  
Glen Gawarkiewicz
Keyword(s):  

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