scholarly journals Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9125-9139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeline Bichet ◽  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Lawrence Mudryk
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Continental Climate

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.

scholarly journals Assessing bias corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Beaumet ◽  
Gerhard Krinner ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Rein Haarsma ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Analogue Method

Abstract. Future sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration from coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models such as those from the CMIP5 experiment are often used as boundary forcings for the downscaling of future climate experiments. Yet, these models show some considerable biases when compared to the observations over present climate. In this paper, existing methods such as an absolute anomaly method and a quantile–quantile method for sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a look-up table and a relative anomaly method for sea-ice concentration (SIC) are presented. For SIC, we also propose a new analogue method. Each method is objectively evaluated with a perfect model test using CMIP5 model experiments and some real-case applications using observations. We find that with respect to other previously existing methods, the analogue method is a substantial improvement for the bias correction of future SIC. Consistency between the constructed SST and SIC fields is an important constraint to consider, as is consistency between the prescribed sea-ice concentration and thickness; we show that the latter can be ensured by using a simple parameterisation of sea-ice thickness as a function of instantaneous and annual minimum SIC.

scholarly journals Effect of retreating sea ice on Arctic cloud cover in simulated recent global warming

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manabu Abe ◽  
Toru Nozawa ◽  
Tomoo Ogura ◽  
Kumiko Takata
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Thin Layers ◽  
Downward Longwave Radiation ◽  
Sea Ice Reduction

Abstract. This study investigates the effect of sea ice reduction on Arctic cloud cover in historical simulations with the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model MIROC5. Arctic sea ice has been shown to exhibit substantial reductions under simulated global warming conditions since the 1970s, particularly in September. This simulated reduction is consistent with satellite observation results. However, Arctic cloud cover increases significantly during October, leading to extensive reductions in sea ice because of the enhanced heat and moisture fluxes from the underlying ocean. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric model MIROC5 clearly show that sea ice reduction causes increased cloud cover. Increased cloud cover occurs primarily in the lower troposphere; however, clouds in the thin surface layers directly above the ocean decrease despite the increased moisture flux because the surface air temperature rises in these thin layers, causing the relative humidity to decrease. As cloud cover increases, the cloud radiative effect cause an increase in the surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) by approximately 40–60 % compared with changes in clear-sky surface DLR in fall. These results suggest that an increase in Arctic cloud cover as a result of reduced sea ice coverage may further melt the sea ice and enhance the feedback processes of Arctic warming.

Improved sea-ice prediction in the Weddell Sea using sea-ice thickness initialization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushi Morioka ◽  
Doroteaciro Iovino ◽  
Andrea Cipollone ◽  
Simona Masina ◽  
Swadhin Behera
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weddell Sea ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Sea Ice Thickness ◽  
The Antarctic

<p>Skillful sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Ocean remains a big challenge due to paucity of sea-ice observations and insufficient representation of sea-ice processes in climate models. This study demonstrates that the Antarctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) prediction is significantly improved using a coupled general circulation model (SINTEX-F2) in which the model’s SIC and sea-ice thickness (SIT) are initialized with the ocean/sea-ice reanalysis product (C-GLORSv7). It is found that the wintertime SIT initialization adds positive values to the prediction skills of the summertime SIC, most effectively in the Weddell Sea where the SIT climatology and variability are the largest among the Antarctic Seas. Examination of the SIT balance during low sea-ice years of the Weddell Sea shows that negative SIT anomalies initialized in June retain the memory throughout austral winter (July-September) owing to horizontal advection of the SIT anomalies by sea-ice velocities. The negative SIT anomalies continue to develop in austral spring (October-December) owing to more incoming solar radiation via ice-albedo feedback and the associated warming of mixed layer. This results in further sea-ice decrease during austral summer (January-March). Concomitantly, the model reasonably reproduces atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas as well as the Weddell Sea during the development of the negative sea-ice anomalies. These results provide solid evidence that the wintertime SIT initialization benefits skillful summertime sea-ice prediction in the Antarctic Seas.</p>

scholarly journals Using an AGCM to Diagnose Historical Effective Radiative Forcing and Mechanisms of Recent Decadal Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 1193-1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Andrews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Aerosol Forcing ◽  
Effective Radiative Forcing

Abstract An atmospheric general circulation model is forced with observed monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary conditions, as well as forcing agents that vary in time, for the period 1979–2008. The simulations are then repeated with various forcing agents, individually and in combination, fixed at preindustrial levels. The simple experimental design allows the diagnosis of the model’s global and regional time-varying effective radiative forcing from 1979 to 2008 relative to preindustrial levels. Furthermore the design can be used to (i) calculate the atmospheric model’s feedback/sensitivity parameters to observed changes in sea surface temperature and (ii) separate those aspects of climate change that are directly driven by the forcing from those driven by large-scale changes in sea surface temperature. It is shown that the atmospheric response to increased radiative forcing over the last 3 decades has halved the global precipitation response to surface warming. Trends in sea surface temperature and sea ice are found to contribute only ~60% of the global land, Northern Hemisphere, and summer land warming trends. Global effective radiative forcing is ~1.5 W m−2 in this model, with anthropogenic and natural contributions of ~1.3 and ~0.2 W m−2, respectively. Forcing increases by ~0.5 W m−2 decade−1 over the period 1979–2008 or ~0.4 W m−2 decade−1 if years strongly influenced by volcanic forcings—which are nonlinear with time—are excluded from the trend analysis. Aerosol forcing shows little global decadal trend due to offsetting regional trends whereby negative aerosol forcing weakens in Europe and North America but continues to strengthen in Southeast Asia.

scholarly journals Simulated Sea Surface Salinity Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (24) ◽  
pp. 6542-6554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashmi Sharma ◽  
Neeraj Agarwal ◽  
Imran M. Momin ◽  
Sujit Basu ◽  
Vijay K. Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Salinity Variability

Abstract A long-period (15 yr) simulation of sea surface salinity (SSS) obtained from a hindcast run of an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by the NCEP–NCAR daily reanalysis product is analyzed in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The objective of the study is twofold: assess the capability of the model to provide realistic simulations of SSS and characterize the SSS variability in view of upcoming satellite salinity missions. Model fields are evaluated in terms of mean, standard deviation, and characteristic temporal scales of SSS variability. Results show that the standard deviations range from 0.2 to 1.5 psu, with larger values in regions with strong seasonal transitions of surface currents (south of India) and along the coast in the Bay of Bengal (strong Kelvin-wave-induced currents). Comparison of simulated SSS with collocated SSS measurements from the National Oceanographic Data Center and Argo floats resulted in a high correlation of 0.85 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.4 psu. The correlations are quite high (>0.75) up to a depth of 300 m. Daily simulations of SSS compare well with a Research Moored Array for African–Asian–Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) buoy in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (1.5°S, 90°E) with an RMSE of 0.3 psu and a correlation better than 0.6. Model SSS compares well with observations at all time scales (intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual). The decorrelation scales computed from model and buoy SSS suggest that the proposed 10-day sampling of future salinity sensors would be able to resolve much of the salinity variability at time scales longer than intraseasonal. This inference is significant in view of satellite salinity sensors, such as Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius.

scholarly journals The benefit of using sea ice concentration satellite data products with uncertainty estimates in summer sea ice data assimilation

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 2543-2562
Author(s):  
Q. Yang ◽  
M. Losch ◽  
S. Losa ◽  
T. Jung ◽  
L. Nerger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Data Retrieval ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. We present sensitivity experiments in which the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF) near-real time sea ice concentration data and the recently released Sea Ice Climate Change Initiative (SICCI) data are assimilated during summer. The data assimilation system uses the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) and a local Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (LSEIK) filter. Atmospheric forcing uncertainties are modelled by using atmospheric ensemble forcing which is taken from the UK Met Office (UKMO) system available through the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) database. When a constant data uncertainty is assumed, the assimilation of SICCI concentrations outperforms the assimilation of OSISAF data in both concentration and thickness forecasts. This is probably because the SICCI data retrieval uses an improved processing algorithms and methodologies. For the assimilation of SICCI data, using the observation uncertainties that are provided with the data improves the ensemble mean state of ice concentration compared to using constant data errors, but does not improve the ice thickness. This is caused by a mismatch between the SICCI concentration and the modelled physical ice concentration. To account for this mismatch the SICCI product should feature larger uncertainties in summer. Consistently, thickness forecasts can be improved by raising the minimum observation uncertainty to inflate the underestimated data error and ensemble spread.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of tracer transport to model resolution, prescribed meteorology and tracer lifetime in the general circulation model ECHAM5

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 3385-3396 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Aghedo ◽  
S. Rast ◽  
M. G. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Meridional Transport

Abstract. Atmospheric transport of traces gases and aerosols plays an important role in the distribution of air pollutants and radiatively active compounds. For model simulations of chemistry-climate interactions it is important to know how the transport of tracers depends on the geographical resolution of the general circulation model. However, this aspect has been scarcely investigated until now. Here, we analyse tracer transport in the ECHAM5 general circulation model using 6 independent idealized tracers with constant lifetimes, which are released in two different altitudes at the surface and in the stratosphere, respectively. Model resolutions from T21L19 to T106L31 were tested by performing multi-annual simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice fields of the 1990s. The impacts of the tracer lifetime were investigated by varying the globally uniform exponential decay time between 0.5 and 50 months. We also tested the influence of using prescribed meteorological fields (ERA40) instead of climatological sea surface temperature and sea ice fields. Meridional transport of surface tracers decreases in the coarse resolution model due to enhanced vertical mixing, with the exception of the advection into the tropical region, which shows an inconsistent trend between the resolutions. Whereas, the meridional transport of tracers released in the stratosphere was enhanced with higher model resolutions, except in the transport from tropical stratosphere to the Southern Hemisphere, which exhibits an increase trend with increasing model resolution. The idealized tracers exhibit a seasonal cycle, which is modulated by the tracer lifetime. In comparison to the run with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice fields, the simulation with prescribed meteorological fields did not exhibit significant change in the meridional transport, except in the exchange of stratospheric tracers between both hemispheres, where it causes about 100% increase. The import of the surface tracers into the stratosphere is increased by up to a factor of 2.5, and the export from the stratosphere into the troposphere was increased by up to 60% when prescribed meteorological fields is used. The ERA40 simulation also showed larger interannual variability (up to 24% compared to 12% in the standard simulations). Using our surface tracers released in either the northern or Southern Hemisphere, respectively, we calculate inter-hemispheric transport times between 11 and 17 months, consistent with values reported in the literature. While this study cannot be used to relate differences in model results to specific changes in transport processes, it nevertheless provides some insight into the characteristics of tracer transport in the widely used ECHAM5 general circulation model.

scholarly journals Challenges associated with the climatic interpretation of water stable isotope records from a highly resolved firn core from Adélie Land, coastal Antarctica

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sentia Goursaud ◽  
Valérie Masson-Delmotte ◽  
Vincent Favier ◽  
Suzanne Preunkert ◽  
Michel Legrand ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stable Isotope ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
High Accumulation ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Water Stable Isotope ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Firn Core

Abstract. A new 21.3 m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78 °S; 139.56 °E, 602 m a.s.l.). The core was dated by annual layers counting based on non-sea-salt sulfate and methanesulfonate summer peaks, refined by a comparison between the reconstructed surface mass balance (hereafter, SMB) and the closest available stake data. The mean reconstructed SMB of 75.2 ± 15.0 cm w.e. y−1 is consistent with local stake data, and remarkably high for coastal East Antarctica. The resulting inter-annual and sub-annual variations in isotopic records (δ18O and deuterium excess, hereafter d-excess) are explored for 1998–2014 and are systematically compared with a couple of climatic time series: an updated database of Antarctic surface snow isotopic composition, SMB stake data, meteorological observations from Dumont d'Urville station, sea-ice concentration based on passive microwave satellite data, precipitation outputs of atmospheric reanalyses, climate and water stable isotope outputs from the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso, as well as air mass origins diagnosed using 5-days back-trajectories. The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ± 2.2 ‰ for d-excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope-temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale, ruling out a simple interpretation of in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from Indian and Pacific/West Antarctic Ice Sheet sectors in autumn and winter times, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea-ice extent (135 °E–145 °E) over the period 1998–2014. However, processes studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the d-excess-δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.

scholarly journals Assessing bias-corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Beaumet ◽  
Gerhard Krinner ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Rein Haarsma ◽  
Laurent Li
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Substantial Improvement ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Analog Method ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Ice Concentration

Abstract. Future sea–surface temperature and sea–ice concentration from coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models such as those from the CMIP5 experiment are often used as boundary forcing for the downscaling of future climate experiment. Yet, these models show some considerable biases when compared to the observations over present climate. In this paper, existing methods such as an absolute anomaly and a quantile–quantile method for sea surface temperature (SST) as well as a look-up table and a relative anomaly method for sea–ice concentration (SIC) are presented. For SIC, we also propose a new analog method. Each method is objectively evaluated with a perfect model test using CMIP5 model experiment and some real-case applications using observations. With respect to other previously existing methods for SIC, the analog method is a substantial improvement for the bias correction of future sea–ice concentrations.

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