scholarly journals Use of Machine Learning and Statistical Algorithms to Predict Hospital Length of Stay Following Colorectal Cancer Resection: A South African Pilot Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Okechinyere J. Achilonu ◽  
June Fabian ◽  
Brendan Bebington ◽  
Elvira Singh ◽  
Gideon Nimako ◽  
...  

The aim of this pilot study was to develop logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM) models that differentiate low from high risk for prolonged hospital length of stay (LOS) in a South African cohort of 383 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgical resection with curative intent. Additionally, the impact of 10-fold cross-validation (CV), Monte Carlo CV, and bootstrap internal validation methods on the performance of the two models was evaluated. The median LOS was 9 days, and prolonged LOS was defined as greater than 9 days post-operation. Preoperative factors associated with prolonged LOS were a prior history of hypertension and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score between 2 and 4. Postoperative factors related to prolonged LOS were the need for a stoma as part of the surgical procedure and the development of post-surgical complications. The risk of prolonged LOS was higher in male patients and in any patient with lower preoperative hemoglobin. The highest area under the receiving operating characteristics (AU-ROC) was achieved using LR of 0.823 (CI = 0.798–0.849) and SVM of 0.821 (CI = 0.776–0.825), with each model using the Monte Carlo CV method for internal validation. However, bootstrapping resulted in models with slightly lower variability. We found no significant difference between the models across the three internal validation methods. The LR and SVM algorithms used in this study required incorporating important features for optimal hospital LOS predictions. The factors identified in this study, especially postoperative complications, can be employed as a simple and quick test clinicians may flag a patient at risk of prolonged LOS.

1987 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 231-236 ◽  
Author(s):  
James L. Levenson ◽  
Robert Hamer ◽  
Joel J. Silverman ◽  
Louis F. Rossiter

A composite screening instrument measuring depression, anxiety, cognitive dysfunction, and pain identified 40 percent of a sample of general medical inpatients (30% of total patients before exclusions) as having significant psychopathology or pain, a reasonable number based on clinical incidence literature. These identified patients' hospital length of stay did not differ from the length of stay for other patients. The screen identified 21 percent as very depressed, 19 percent as very anxious, 15 percent as having cognitive dysfunction, and 11 percent with high pain levels. Depression, anxiety, and pain frequently occurred together. Further study is required to refine the instrument and assess its effectiveness at targeting patients for psychiatric intervention.


1992 ◽  
Vol 57 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 61-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel S.P. Schubert ◽  
Robert Burns ◽  
Wilfredo Paras ◽  
Eulogio Sioson

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S98-S98
Author(s):  
Corey J Medler ◽  
Mary Whitney ◽  
Juan Galvan-Cruz ◽  
Ron Kendall ◽  
Rachel Kenney ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Unnecessary and prolonged IV vancomycin exposure increases risk of adverse drug events, notably nephrotoxicity, which may result in prolonged hospital length of stay. The purpose of this study is to identify areas of improvement in antimicrobial stewardship for vancomycin appropriateness by clinical pharmacists at the time of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Methods Retrospective, observational cohort study at an academic medical center and a community hospital. Inclusion: patient over 18 years, received at least three days of IV vancomycin where the clinical pharmacy TDM service assessed for appropriate continuation for hospital admission between June 19, 2019 and June 30, 2019. Exclusion: vancomycin prophylaxis or administered by routes other than IV. Primary outcome was to determine the frequency and clinical components of inappropriate vancomycin continuation at the time of TDM. Inappropriate vancomycin continuation was defined as cultures positive for methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant bacteria, and non-purulent skin and soft tissue infection (SSTI) in the absence of vasopressors. Data was reported using descriptive statistics and measures of central tendency. Results 167 patients met inclusion criteria with 38.3% from the ICU. SSTIs were most common indication 39 (23.4%) cases, followed by pneumonia and blood with 34 (20.4%) cases each. At time of vancomycin TDM assessment, vancomycin continuation was appropriate 59.3% of the time. Mean of 4.22 ± 2.69 days of appropriate vancomycin use, 2.18 ± 2.47 days of inappropriate use, and total duration 5.42 ± 2.94. 16.4% patients developed an AKI. Majority of missed opportunities were attributed to non-purulent SSTI (28.2%) and missed MRSA nares swabs in 21% pneumonia cases (table 1). Conclusion Vancomycin is used extensively for empiric treatment of presumed infections. Appropriate de-escalation of vancomycin therapy is important to decrease the incidence of adverse effects, decreasing hospital length of stay, and reduce development of resistance. According to the mean duration of inappropriate therapy, there are opportunities for pharmacy and antibiotic stewardship involvement at the time of TDM to optimize patient care (table 1). Missed opportunities for vancomycin de-escalation Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 237437352110114
Author(s):  
Andrew Nyce ◽  
Snehal Gandhi ◽  
Brian Freeze ◽  
Joshua Bosire ◽  
Terry Ricca ◽  
...  

Prolonged waiting times are associated with worse patient experience in patients discharged from the emergency department (ED). However, it is unclear which component of the waiting times is most impactful to the patient experience and the impact on hospitalized patients. We performed a retrospective analysis of ED patients between July 2018 and March 30, 2020. In all, 3278 patients were included: 1477 patients were discharged from the ED, and 1680 were admitted. Discharged patients had a longer door-to-first provider and door-to-doctor time, but a shorter doctor-to-disposition, disposition-to-departure, and total ED time when compared to admitted patients. Some, but not all, components of waiting times were significantly higher in patients with suboptimal experience (<100th percentile). Prolonged door-to-doctor time was significantly associated with worse patient experience in discharged patients and in patients with hospital length of stay ≤4 days. Prolonged ED waiting times were significantly associated with worse patient experience in patients who were discharged from the ED and in inpatients with short length of stay. Door-to-doctor time seems to have the highest impact on the patient’s experience of these 2 groups.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. e001120
Author(s):  
Brendan Joseph McMullan ◽  
Michelle Mahony ◽  
Lolita Java ◽  
Mona Mostaghim ◽  
Michael Plaister ◽  
...  

Children in hospital are frequently prescribed intravenous antibiotics for longer than needed. Programmes to optimise timely intravenous-to-oral antibiotic switch may limit excessive in-hospital antibiotic use, minimise complications of intravenous therapy and allow children to go home faster. Here, we describe a quality improvement approach to implement a guideline, with team-based education, audit and feedback, for timely, safe switch from intravenous-to-oral antibiotics in hospitalised children. Eligibility for switch was based on evidence-based guidelines and supported by education and feedback. The project was conducted over 12 months in a tertiary paediatric hospital. Primary outcomes assessed were the proportion of eligible children admitted under paediatric and surgical teams switched within 24 hours, and switch timing prior to and after guideline launch. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay, recommencement of intravenous therapy or readmission. The percentage of children switched within 24 hours of eligibility significantly increased from 32/50 (64%) at baseline to 203/249 (82%) post-implementation (p=0.006). The median time to switch fell from 15 hours 42 min to 4 hours 20 min (p=0.0006). In addition, there was a 14-hour median reduction in hospital length of stay (p=0.008). Readmission to hospital and recommencement of intravenous therapy did not significantly change postimplementation. This education, audit and feedback approach improved timely intravenous-to-oral switch in children and also allowed for more timely discharge from hospital. The study demonstrates proof of concept for this implementation with a methodology that can be readily adapted to other paediatric inpatient settings.


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