scholarly journals Analysis and Simulation of Epidemic COVID-19 Curves with the Verhulst Model Applied to Statistical Inhomogeneous Age Groups

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 4159
Author(s):  
Lode K. J. Vandamme ◽  
Paulo R. F. Rocha

Pandemic curves, such as COVID-19, often show multiple and unpredictable contamination peaks, often called second, third and fourth waves, which are separated by wide plateaus. Here, by considering the statistical inhomogeneity of age groups, we show a quantitative understanding of the different behaviour rules to flatten a pandemic COVID-19 curve and concomitant multi-peak recurrence. The simulations are based on the Verhulst model with analytical generalized logistic equations for the limited growth. From the log–lin plot, we observe an early exponential growth proportional to . The first peak is often τgrow @ 5 d. The exponential growth is followed by a recovery phase with an exponential decay proportional to . For the characteristic time holds: . Even with isolation, outbreaks due to returning travellers can result in a recurrence of multi-peaks visible on log–lin scales. The exponential growth for the first wave is faster than for the succeeding waves, with characteristic times, τ of about 10 d. Our analysis ascertains that isolation is an efficient method in preventing contamination and enables an improved strategy for scientists, governments and the general public to timely balance between medical burdens, mental health, socio-economic and educational interests.

Author(s):  
Kate Corrigan ◽  
Maeve Haran ◽  
Conor McCandliss ◽  
Roisin McManus ◽  
Shannon Cleary ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Despite the rapid advance of psychedelic science and possible translation of psychedelic therapy into the psychiatric clinic, very little is known about mental health service user attitudes. Objectives To explore mental health service user attitudes to psychedelics and psilocybin therapy. Methods A questionnaire capturing demographics, diagnoses, previous psychedelic and other drug use, and attitudes to psychedelics and psilocybin therapy was distributed to mental health service users. Results Ninety-nine participants completed the survey (52% female, mean age 42 years). The majority (72%) supported further research, with 59% supporting psilocybin as a medical treatment. A total of 27% previously used recreational psilocybin, with a male preponderance (p = 0.01). Younger age groups, those with previous psychedelic experience, and those with non-religious beliefs were more likely to have favourable attitudes towards psilocybin. A total of 55% of the total sample would accept as a treatment if doctor recommended, whereas 20% would not. Fewer people with depression/anxiety had used recreational psychedelics (p = 0.03) but were more likely to support government funded studies (p = 0.02). A minority (5%) of people with conditions (psychosis and bipolar disorder) that could be exacerbated by psilocybin thought it would be useful for them. One fifth of the total sample viewed psychedelics as addictive and unsafe even under medical supervision. Concerns included fear of adverse effects, lack of knowledge, insufficient research, illegality, and relapse if medications were discontinued. Conclusions The majority supported further research into psilocybin therapy. Younger people, those with previous recreational psychedelic experience, and those with non-religious beliefs were more likely to have favourable attitudes towards psilocybin therapy.


Author(s):  
Dharma N. Bhatta ◽  
Jennifer Hecht ◽  
Shelley N. Facente

Background: Stigma and discrimination are major challenges faced by people living with HIV (PLWH), and stigma continues to be prevalent among PLWH. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 584 men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV between July 2018 and December 2020, designed to better understand which demographic and behavioral characteristics of MSM living with HIV in San Francisco, California are associated with experience of stigma, so that programs and initiatives can be tailored appropriately to minimize HIV stigma’s impacts. Methods: This analysis was conducted with data from San Francisco AIDS Foundation (SFAF) encompassing services from multiple different locations in San Francisco. Data about the level of HIV-related stigma experienced were collected through a single question incorporated into programmatic data collection forms at SFAF as part of the client record stored in SFAF’s electronic health record. We performed linear regression to determine the associations between self-reported experiences of HIV stigma and other characteristics among MSM living with HIV. Results: HIV stigma was low overall among MSM living with HIV who are actively engaged in HIV care in San Francisco; however, it was significantly higher for the age groups of 13–29 years (adjusted risk difference (ARD): 0.251, 95% CI: 0.012, 0.489) and 30–49 years (ARD: 0.205, 95% CI: 0.042, 0.367) when compared to the age group of 50 years and older, as well as people who were homeless (ARD: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.120, 1.568), unstably housed (ARD: 0.326, 95% CI: 0.109, 0.543) and/or having mental health concerns (ARD: 0.309, 95% CI: 0.075, 0.544), controlling for race, injection history, and viral load. Conclusions: These findings highlight an opportunity to develop culturally, socially, and racially appropriate interventions to reduce HIV stigma among MSM living with HIV, particularly for younger men and those struggling with housing stability and/or mental health.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordyn T. Wallenborn ◽  
Anny-Claude Joseph ◽  
Whitney C. Graves ◽  
Saba W. Masho

Background. In the United States, major depressive disorder affects one in five women aged 20-40 years. During these childbearing years, depression can negatively impact maternal behaviors that are crucial for infant growth and development. This study examined the relationship between prepregnancy depression and breastfeeding duration by maternal age. Methods. Data from Phase 7 (2012-2013) of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (N=62,483) were analyzed. Prepregnancy depression was dichotomized while breastfeeding duration was categorized as never breastfed, breastfed 8 weeks or less, and breastfed more than 8 weeks. Maternal age was a significant effect modifier; therefore, results were stratified by maternal age. Multinomial logistic regression was used to obtain odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results. For women aged 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 years with prepregnancy depression, the odds of never breastfeeding and breastfeeding 8 weeks or less were significantly higher than in women with no history of prepregnancy depression. Notably, among women aged 25-29 with prepregnancy depression, the odds of never breastfeeding and breastfeeding 8 weeks or less were 93% (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.93, 95% CI =1.57-2.37) and 65% (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.37-1.99) higher compared to women with no history of prepregnancy depression, respectively. Conclusions. Having a history of poor mental health before pregnancy may increase the likelihood of premature breastfeeding cessation. A woman’s mental health status before pregnancy should be considered in reproductive and prenatal care models. Efforts should be made to understand challenges women of specific age groups face when trying to breastfeed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gareth J Griffith ◽  
Kelvyn Jones

Mental illness and mental wellbeing are related but distinct constructs. Despite this, geographical enquiry often references the two as interchangeable indicators of mental health and assumes the relationship between the two is consistent across different geographical scales. Furthermore, the importance of geography in such research is commonly assumed to be static for all age groups, despite the large body of evidence demonstrating contextual effects in age-specific populations. We leverage simultaneous measurement of a mental illness and mental wellbeing metric from Understanding Society, a UK population-based survey, and employ bivariate, cross-classified multilevel modelling to characterise the relationship between geographical context and mental health. Results provide strong evidence for contextual effects for both responses before and after covariate adjustment, with weaker evidence for area-classification and PSU-level contextual effects for the GHQ-12 after covariate adjustment. Results support a two-continua model of mental health at the individual level, but indicates that consensual benefit may be achieved across both dimensions by intervening at household and regional levels. There is also some evidence of a greater contextual effects for mental wellbeing than for mental illness. Results highlight the potential of the household as a target for intervention design for consensual benefit across both constructs. Results highlight the increased importance of geographical context for older respondents across both responses. This research supports an area-based approach to improving both mental illness and mental wellbeing in older populations.


Author(s):  
Tore Bonsaksen ◽  
Hilde Thygesen ◽  
Janni Leung ◽  
Mary C. Ruffolo ◽  
Mariyana Schoultz ◽  
...  

The aim of the study was to examine the use of video-based communication and its association with loneliness, mental health and quality of life in older adults (60-69 years versus 70+ years) during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in Norway, UK, USA and Australia during April/May 2020, and 836 participants in the relevant age groups were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between use of video-based communication tools and loneliness, mental health and quality of life within age groups, while adjusting by sociodemographic variables. Video-based communication tools were found to be more often used among participants aged 60-69 years (60.1%), compared to participants aged 70 or above (51.8%, p < 0.05). Adjusting for all variables, use of video-based communication was associated with less loneliness (β = -0.12, p < 0.01) and higher quality of life (β = 0.14, p < 0.01) among participants aged 60-69 years, while no associations occurred for participants in the oldest age group. The use of video-based communication tools was therefore associated with favorable psychological outcomes among participants in their sixties, but not among participants in the oldest age group. The study results support the notion that age may influence the association between use of video-based communication tools and psychological outcomes amongst older people.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Luo

BACKGROUND The depression level among US adults significantly increased during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and age disparity in depression during the pandemic were reported in recent studies. Delay or avoidance of medical care is one of the collateral damages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and it can lead to increased morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE The present study aims to assess the prevalence of depression and delay of care among US middle-aged adults and older adults during the pandemic, as well as investigate the role of delay of care in depression among those two age groups. METHODS This cross-sectional study used the 2020 Health and Retirement Study (HRS) COVID-19 Project (Early, Version 1.0) data. Univariate analyses, bivariate analyses, and binary logistic regression were applied. US adults older than 46 years old were included. Depression was measured by Composite International Diagnostic Interview Short Form (CIDI-SF). Delay of care were measured by four items: delay of surgery, delay of seeing a doctor, delay of dental care, and delay of other care. Univariate analyses, bivariate analyses, and binary logistic regression were conducted. RESULTS More than half of participants were older than 65 years old (58.23%) and 274 participants (8.75%) had depression during the pandemic. Delay of dental care was positively associated with depression among both middle-aged adults (OR=2.05, 95%CI=1.04-4.03, P<0.05) and older adults (OR=3.08, 95%CI=1.07-8.87, P<0.05). Delay of surgery was positively associated with depression among older adults (OR=3.69, 95%CI=1.06-12.90, P<0.05). Self-reported pain was positively related to depression among both age groups. Middle-aged adults who reported higher education level (some college of above) or worse self-reported health had higher likelihood to have depression. While perceived more loneliness was positively associated with depression among older adults, financial difficulty was positively associated with depression among middle-aged adults. CONCLUSIONS This study found that depression among middle-aged and older adults during the pandemic was also prevalent. The study highlighted the collateral damage of the COVID-19 pandemic by identifying the effect of delay of surgery and dental care on depression during the pandemic. Although surgery and dental care cannot be delivered by telehealth, telehealth services can still be provided to address patients’ concern on delay of surgery and dental care. Moreover, the implementation of tele-mental health services is also needed to address mental health symptoms among US middle-aged and older adults during the pandemic. Future research that uses more comprehensive CLINICALTRIAL N/A


2022 ◽  
Vol 74 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-67
Author(s):  
Somadatta Das ◽  
Rabindra Nath Padhy ◽  
Bibhuti Bhusan Pradhan

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) virus causes a respiratory disease with physical and mental health effects, ending at general morbidity and fatality from some latest coronavirus strains, at times. During the present pandemics, people stay mainly at home, contributing to some elevated stress levels. World Health Organization (WHO) contemplates that the additional steps like, quarantine and self-isolation have stimulated daily routines of peoples, leading to a rise in agitation, oppression, sleeplessness, alcohol addiction, drug-addictions and suicidal behaviors; consequently, causing increase in cases of domestic violence, even. At this stage, health service providers cannot help the poor, elderly people, children who are susceptible to pre-medical adverse conditions. This work aims to highlight the general scenario of the mental health locally in India during covid-19 pandemic. Some lifestyles, such as yoga, meditation, Ayurvedic medication, avoiding reading on corona too much and watching TV about it, while staying with the own family with the popular healthier lifestyles are recommended to alleviate stress.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Chamdani ◽  
Umi Mahmudah ◽  
Siti Fatimah

This study aims to analyze mental health and anxiety levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study focused on students who were forced to study at home by e-learning. This study used as many as 210 students from junior high school, senior high school, and university levels which were selected randomly. Then, this study used a mixed-method by combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) was used to obtain empirical results to compare mental health and anxiety levels based on student age groups. The analysis results revealed there was a positive and significant influence of the students’ age group on mental health and anxiety levels during the outbreak of COVID-19. The analysis also concluded that students in the 12-15 years’ age group had the worst mental health level. Meanwhile, students in the 20-25 years’ age group are known to have the lowest anxiety level. Overall, this study found that Indonesian students experienced a decline in mental health and detected an increase in anxiety levels. The level of mental health and student anxiety has implications for their learning at home, which can lead to unsatisfactory learning outcomes.


Expert public psychiatrists use case studies to share best practice strategies in this clinically oriented introduction to community mental health. Today, the majority of psychiatrists work with people who suffer not only from mental illness but also from poverty, trauma, social isolation, and discrimination. Psychiatrists cannot do this work alone but, instead, are part of teams of behavioral health workers navigating larger health care and social service systems. In an increasingly complex health care environment, mental health clinicians need to master systems-based practice in order to provide optimal care to their patients. The rapid development of public psychiatry training programs is a response to the learning needs of psychiatrists in an evolving system. This book begins with seven foundational principles of public psychiatry—recovery, trauma-informed care, integrated care, cultural humility, harm reduction, systems of care, and financing care—using cases to bring these concepts to life. Then, using a population health framework, cases are used to explore the typical needs of different age groups or vulnerable populations and to illustrate evidence-based/best practices that have been employed to meet these needs. Common to all of the chapters is a focus on the potential of each person, regardless of illness, to achieve personal goals, supported by a clinician who is also an advocate, activist, and leader.


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