scholarly journals Resilient Scheduling as a Response to Uncertainty in Construction Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6493
Author(s):  
Martina Milat ◽  
Snježana Knezić ◽  
Jelena Sedlar
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Uncertainty Sources ◽  
Probabilistic Simulation ◽  
Project Deliverables ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

Complex construction projects are developed in a dynamic environment, where uncertainty conditions have a great potential to affect project deliverables. In an attempt to efficiently deal with the negative impacts of uncertainty, resilient baseline schedules are produced to improve the probability of reaching project goals, such as respecting the due date and reaching the expected profit. Prior to introducing the resilient scheduling procedure, a taxonomy model was built to account for uncertainty sources in construction projects. Thence, a multi-objective optimization model is presented to manage the impact of uncertainty. This approach can be described as a complex trade-off analysis between three important features of a construction project: duration, stability, and profit. The result of the suggested procedure is presented in a form of a resilient baseline schedule, so the ability of a schedule to absorb uncertain perturbations is improved. The proposed optimization problem is illustrated on the example project network, along which the probabilistic simulation method was used to validate the results of the scheduling process in uncertain conditions. The proposed resilient scheduling approach leads to more accurate forecasting, so the project planning calculations are accepted with increased confidence levels.

scholarly journals Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Peres ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere ◽  
Roberto Greco ◽  
Thom A. Bogaard
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Continuous Series ◽  
Uncertainty Sources ◽  
Uncertain Knowledge ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Triggering Rainfall ◽  
Landslide Triggering

Abstract. Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide–triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts that the uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants have on the assessment of landslide intensity–duration early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on an ideal synthetic database of rainfall and landslide data, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios, that allow to simulate possible errors in landslide triggering instants, as derived from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed by combining different criteria to single-out rainfall events from a continuous series and different temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant. Errors influence thresholds in a way that they are generally underestimated. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall, limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

scholarly journals The role and progress of EIA in environmental protection in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 03002
Author(s):  
Yingying Wu
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Planning And Construction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quality Status

The Environmental Impact Assessment system, referred to as the EIA system, is to evaluate the impact of the implementation of the plan or the construction and operation of the project on the environment, combine the surrounding environmental quality status, propose ecological or environmental protection measures,then evaluate the effectiveness of the measures, and draw a conclusion on the feasibility of the project(planning) in terms of environmental protection.This article summarizes the role and progress in environmental protection in the two aspects of planning and construction projects in recent years.Comprehensively selected cases found that both planning or construction project environmental assessment have played an important role in predicting the possible impact of planning or construction projects on the environment and ecology, and proposed feasible and effective environmental protection measures.After the planning or construction project adopts the conclusions and suggestions, as long as the "Three Simultaneous" regulations are followed, the impact of the planning or construction project on the environment or ecology can be prevented or effectively reduced. When it is necessary to conduct postevaluation of environmental impact, verify the actual conditions of the construction project, such as emissions and actual production processes.

Monte Carlo method for uncertainty evaluation of noise annoyance prevalence

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 (2) ◽  
pp. 3944-3952
Author(s):  
Ricardo Luís d'Avila Villela
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Noise Pollution ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Uncertainty Sources ◽  
Exposure Response ◽  
Density Maps ◽  
Noise Impact ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

When a decision-making process relies on the information provided by a measurement or simulation result, the right decision demands a good quality result, in other words, a low uncertainty result. In order to establish public policies for environmental noise control, it is essential to identify the impact of each type of noise pollution (e.g. road, aircraft and rail transportation noise) on the population affected. One of the noise impact metrics that can be used is the number of highly noise annoyed people in a region whose estimated value is obtained from the corresponding exposure-response function and noise and population density maps. However, an estimated value of the noise impact metric with high uncertainty makes it difficult to realize the actual severity of the problem and its priority in relation to other public health issues. In this work, a Monte Carlo simulation method is used to assess the uncertainty of a noise impact metric result, namely the number of people highly disturbed by road noise in a city. This article also presents a sensitivity analysis of uncertainty sources that allows quantification of the main uncertainty components, which supports improvements in noise impact metric results.

scholarly journals A Novel Method of Developing Construction Projects Schedule under Rework Scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5710
Author(s):  
Guofeng Ma ◽  
Shan Jiang ◽  
Tiancheng Zhu ◽  
Jianyao Jia
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Real Estate Development ◽  
Design Structure Matrix ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Design Structure ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Critical Chain

Construction projects have faced serious schedule delays caused by rework risks. However, it appears that traditional methods are of limited value in developing applicable project schedules. This study presents an analysis on construction projects schedule development under rework scenarios by a novel method named the improved critical chain design structure matrix (CCDSM). Research data are collected from a real estate development project in China. As a result, predictions of project completion duration and probability have been made. A reliable schedule considering information interactions has been developed and visualized. Rework impact areas of activities have been examined to quantitatively record the impact on project duration. To meet different demands, the method generates two more schedules setting different rework buffers. Furthermore, these activities have the potential of causing rework and have been quantified based on the calculation of two criticalities, providing an identification of rework-intensive works that should be payed close importance to, which have not be realized by previous methods. The results proved the feasibility and effectiveness of this method in developing a schedule for construction projects disturbed by rework, helping practitioners adopt measures to avoid rework-caused schedule delays and achieve sustainable development of such projects.

Probabilistic emission and immission modelling: case-study of the combined sewer – WWTP – receiving water system at Dessel (Belgium)

2002 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
pp. 117-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Willems ◽  
J. Berlamont
Keyword(s):  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Water System ◽  
Parameter Uncertainties ◽  
Uncertainty Sources ◽  
Probabilistic Simulation ◽  
Deterministic Modelling ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Input Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Receiving Water

The impact of the combined urban drainage and WWTP system of the village of Dessel (Belgium) on the Witte Nete receiving water is modelled both in terms of emissions and immissions. The hydrodynamic and water quality modelling is performed both in a deterministic and probabilistic way. For the deterministic modelling, detailed physically based and simplified conceptual models are used in a complementary way. In the probabilistic modelling, the different uncertainties in the deterministic model are classified in input uncertainties, parameter uncertainties and model-structure uncertainties. The probabilistic simulation results can be used in risk analysis and management, for the determination of the major uncertainty-sources and priorities in model improvement, for model bias elimination and for efficient model calibration.

scholarly journals Scheduling Linear Construction Projects with Constraints on Resource Availability

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Biruk ◽  
P. Jaśkowski
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Limited Resource ◽  
Renewable Resource ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Mixed Integer ◽  
Fixed Costs ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Construction Companies

AbstractProduction rates for various activities and overall construction project duration are significantly influenced by crew formation. Crews are composed of available renewable resources. Construction companies tend to reduce the number of permanent employees, which reduces fixed costs, but at the same time limits production capacity. Therefore, construction project planning must be carried out by means of scheduling methods which allow for resource constrains. Authors create a mathematical model for optimized scheduling of linear construction projects with consideration of resources and work continuity constraints. Proposed approach enables user to select optimal crew formation under limited resource supply. This minimizes project duration and improves renewable resource utilization in construction linear projects. This paper presents mixed integer linear programming to model this problem and uses a case study to illustrate it.

scholarly journals The impact of Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) Phases on Project Performance: A Case of Large-scale Residential Construction Project

Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamyar Kabirifar ◽  
Mohammad Mojtahedi
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Performance ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Residential Construction ◽  
High Rise ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Significant Factors

The Construction Industry is a complex and fragmented industry worldwide with regards to its supply chain, products, and processes, and is faced with a similar dilemma as faced by manufacturers during its time in past decades. Scope, time, and cost are the triple constraints of project management and leading factors in defining the project performance. Productivity and efficiency of each construction project is measured through its triple constraints, therefore the factors that affect project success are significantly important. Despite the importance of understanding project performance indicators, few empirical studies have been conducted over the last decade in terms of analyzing the factors that determine the performance of high-rise buildings in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects. Hence, the aim of this paper is to analyze and rank EPC critical activities across large-scale residential construction projects in Iran, by using the TOPSIS method as a multi-attribute group decision-making technique. Results indicate that engineering design, project planning and controls are significant factors contributing to the project performance. In addition, engineering has a pivotal role in project performance and this significance is followed by the construction phase. On the contrary, all believe procurement is more important than Construction phase.

Simulation modeling of weather-sensitive tunnelling construction activities subject to cold weather

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Shahin ◽  
S.M. AbouRizk ◽  
Y. Mohamed ◽  
S. Fernando
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Cold Regions ◽  
Weather Impact ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Weather Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

In cold regions, weather introduces a great deal of uncertainty to weather-sensitive construction activities, resulting in project schedules that deviate from plans. To maximize construction process productivity, decisions regarding process execution planning and sequence of work need to be made, based on reliable plans and schedules. Faced with winter weather uncertainty in cold regions, this task becomes quite challenging. This paper follows the framework that was proposed in the literature for simulating weather-sensitive construction projects executed under cold weather conditions. In the literature, the authors applied the framework steps to enable simulating and planning pipeline construction activities under severe cold weather. The proposed framework sets out a work breakdown structure of activities to account for and quantify weather impact on the project schedule. The steps outlined in the framework are followed to enable simulating and planning tunnelling construction activities executed under severe cold weather conditions. Relevant simulation findings, which clarify the impact of cold weather events on construction projects and can assist in project planning and decision support, are reported.

scholarly journals SCHEDULING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS WITH RESOURCES ACCESSIBILITY LIMITED AND CHANGEABLE IN TIME

2004 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 267-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Jaśkowski ◽  
Anna Sobotka
Keyword(s):  
Evolutionary Algorithm ◽  
Heuristic Algorithm ◽  
Renewable Resources ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Time Constraints ◽  
Resources Allocation ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Project Duration

This paper aims at solving the problem of minimising the construction project duration in deterministic conditions when the accessibility of renewable resources is limited and changeable in time (workforce, machines and equipment). Particular construction processes (with various levels of complexity) must be conducted in the established technological order and can be executed in different technological and organisational variants (different contractors, technologies, and ways of using resources). To solve this problem the authors are using evolutionary algorithm. For the assessment of solutions generated by evolutionary algorithm, the authors have worked out a heuristic algorithm (of resources allocation and project duration calculation). This methodology seems to produce similar outcomes when juxtaposed with other solutions obtained by research works carried out using comparable methodologies. The paper contains an example of practical application of evolutionary algorithm for construction project planning within resources and time constraints.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of lean construction practices on project duration and variability: A simulation-based study on residential buildings

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huseyin EROL ◽  
Irem DIKMEN ◽  
Talat BIRGONUL
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Residential Building ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Lean Construction ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Project Duration ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Planning Experts ◽  
The Impact

Performance of the construction projects have been criticized for many years due to their low productivity rates and cost overruns as well as significant delays. Increasing number of dissatisfied customers compel practitioners to reform conventional practices of construction management. Lean construction has emerged as a result of these efforts in the industry. However, there are limited number of studies that demonstrate the practical benefits of lean construction applications. The aim of this paper is to untangle practical applications of lean construction and to reveal their benefits. A methodology was developed to compare the lean and non-lean scenarios of a residential building project by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation models were generated through regular meetings held with construction planning experts. Research findings demonstrate that application of lean construction principles have a potential to improve the performance of projects by reducing both the total project duration and its expected variation. In addition, the study re­vealed that utilization of practical lean construction principles may result in a considerable amount of time reduction in wall construction and plastering activities of residential building projects. Although the findings of this study cannot be generalized, they are expected to encourage practitioners to adopt lean construction principles.

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