scholarly journals Analysis of Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Information Distribution and Diffusion Methods in the Main Grain Production Areas of China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaijie Niu ◽  
Qingfang Hu ◽  
Lu Zhao ◽  
Shouzheng Jiang ◽  
Haiying Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Grain Production ◽  
Information Distribution ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Drought Damage

Accurate assessment of agricultural drought risk is of strategic significance to ensure future grain production security in the main grain production areas of China. Agricultural drought risk assessment is based on drought vulnerability characteristics. In this study, firstly the drought thresholds were redefined by correlation analysis of drought strength based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and drought damage rates, then the information distribution and the two-dimensional normal information diffusion method were employed to establish the vulnerability curve between drought strength and drought damage rates. Finally, provincial drought risks and the conditional probabilities at different drought damage stages were obtained. The results show that the drought vulnerability curve was nonlinear. With the increase of drought strength, drought damage rates increased rapidly at the beginning, and after a small fluctuation locally, they no longer increased significantly and tended to be relative stable. The occurrence probabilities of agricultural drought risk presented great spatial differences, with the characteristics of high in the northern, moderate in the central and southwestern part, and lower in the southeastern provinces in the main grain production areas of China. The analysis of conditional probability showed that Hubei, Henan, and Jiangxi were the provinces most prone to drought-affected risk under the drought-induced condition; while Liaoning, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia were the ones most prone to lost harvest risk under the drought-induced or the drought-affected condition. The results could be used to provide guidance for drought risk management and to formulate appropriate plans by the relevant departments.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Southwest China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoqi Zeng ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Zhaolei Li ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Yahui Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought disasters jeopardize agricultural production and are expected to become more serious in the context of global climate change. However, in China, little attention has been paid to evaluating agricultural drought risk in humid areas (such as in Southwest China), which have also been affected by severe drought in recent years. In this work, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which was computed from high-quality monthly precipitation and temperature data from 92 rain-gauge stations across Southwest China, to study the drought characteristics (e.g., intensity, duration, and frequency) and their decadal variations from 1960 to 2017. Furthermore, we applied a widely accepted conceptual model that emphasizes the combined role of drought hazard (calculated by the intensity and frequency of drought) and agricultural drought vulnerability (integrated with high-resolution soil properties, climate, topography, irrigation, and gross domestic product) to conduct a spatial assessment of agricultural drought risk at a 1-km grid scale. The results revealed that drought has become more serious and frequent in Southwest China, especially since the 2000s. About 27.4% of the agricultural area has been exposed to an extremely high risk of drought, 33.5% to a high risk, 22.5% to a moderate risk, and 16.6% to a low risk. The extreme agricultural risk areas were located mainly in northeastern and southeastern Chongqing, southwestern Sichuan, northeastern and eastern Guizhou, and central and eastern Yunnan. Our findings highlighted that more attention should be paid to the agricultural drought risk in humid regions of China. Furthermore, this work could set the stage for policy makers and practitioners to take measures to reduce the agricultural drought risk in Southwest China.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1431
Author(s):  
David Ortega-Gaucin ◽  
Jesús A. Ceballos-Tavares ◽  
Alejandro Ordoñez Sánchez ◽  
Heidy V. Castellano-Bahena
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
The State ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
The World ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought is one of the major threats to water and food security in many regions around the world. The present study focuses on the evaluation of agricultural drought risk from an integrated perspective, that is, emphasizing the combined role of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to drought. For this purpose, we used the Mexican state of Zacatecas as a case study. This state is one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of agricultural drought in the country. The proposed method includes three stages: first, we analyzed the risk of agricultural drought at the municipal scale using the FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) in its country version (Country-Level ASIS) and also determined a Drought Hazard Index (DHI). Subsequently, we conducted a municipal assessment of exposure and vulnerability to drought based on a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators, which we combined using an analytical procedure to generate the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) and the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Finally, we determined a Drought Risk Index (DRI) based on a weighted addition of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Results showed that 32% of the state’s municipalities are at high and very high risk of agricultural drought; these municipalities are located mainly in the center and north of the state, where 75.8% of agriculture is rainfed, 63.6% of production units are located, and 67.4% of the state’s population depends on agricultural activity. These results are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies analyzing drought in the state of Zacatecas using different meteorological drought indices, and the results are also largely in line with official data on agricultural surfaces affected by drought in this state. The generated maps can help stakeholders and public policymakers to guide investments and actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to and risk of agricultural drought. The method described can also be applied to other Mexican states or adapted for use in other states or countries around the world.

scholarly journals Why well yield matters for managing agricultural drought risk

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 11-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Foster ◽  
N. Brozović ◽  
A.P. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Well Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 105689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreia F.S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Patrícia Páscoa
Keyword(s):  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

scholarly journals Corrigendum: Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teun Schrieks ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Marthe Wens ◽  
Toon Haer ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Behavioral Theories ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

scholarly journals Regional Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Method Based on Risk Transforming Process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanqi WEI ◽  
Yi CUI ◽  
Juliang JIN ◽  
Hiroshi ISHIDAIRA ◽  
Haichao LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Curves ◽  
Drought Risk Management

Abstract Drought risk management can effectively reduce drought losses and improve drought resistance capability, of which drought risk assessment is the core issue. This study evaluated the agricultural drought risk in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province in China by the approach of constructing drought loss risk curves and risk distribution maps. The results showed that: 1) The drought events that occurred in northern regions (Huaibei and Suzhou) were with the characteristics of high-frequency and low-intensity, while in southern regions (Huainan and Bengbu), the occurring characteristics were low-frequency, high-intensity, and long-duration. 2) Without irrigation, Fuyang was the high-risk region with more than 80% potential yield loss rate, while Huainan was the relatively low-risk area with a potential yield loss of 50%. 3) Irrigation had a significant effect on reducing drought risk loss, while the efficiency was influenced by the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation. The irrigation scheme in study area still remains to be optimized based on the characteristics of precipitation and crop growth. This study established and practiced a quantitative framework for regional drought risk assessment by creating drought risk curves and risk maps, which have significant value in improving the regional agricultural drought risk management level.

scholarly journals Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (17) ◽  
pp. 6153
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Wei Song ◽  
Wen Song
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Crop Water Stress Index ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Mekong Region ◽  
Drought Hazard ◽  
South Central ◽  
High Hazard

Natural disasters worldwide regularly impact on human activities. As a frequently occurring natural disaster, drought has adverse impacts on agricultural production. The Lancang-Mekong River is a transnational river running through China and five Southeast Asian countries and it is a vital water resource for irrigation in the region. Drought in the Lancang-Mekong Region (LMR) has occurred frequently in recent years. Assessing the risk of drought in the region is essential for rational planning of agricultural production and formulation of drought relief measures. In this study, an assessment of drought risk has been achieved by combining the hazard and vulnerability assessments for drought. The assessment of the drought hazard depends mainly on the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The assessment of drought vulnerability takes into account various indicators such as climatic factors (e.g., crop water stress index), soil factors (e.g., available water capacity), and irrigation factors (e.g., irrigation support). The results reveal that: (1) Drought distribution in the LMR is characterized by a spreading of the drought to countries along the middle and lower reaches of the Mekong River. Countries located in the middle and lower reaches of the Mekong River are more prone to drought. Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia are the regions with higher and high-drought risk levels. (2) The spatial distributions for the drought hazard and the drought vulnerability in the LMR exhibit significant differences as evidenced in the mapping results. High-hazard and high-vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the middle LMR, and the middle to higher hazard areas and the middle to higher vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the south-central LMR, while the low-hazard areas and the low-vulnerability areas are mainly in the north. (3) The majority of planting areas for sugarcane, rice, and cassava are located in the high-hazard areas. The distributions of drought-prone and high-hazard areas also correspond to the main agricultural areas in the LMR.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Evaluation Based on an Optimized Comprehensive Index System

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menghua Deng ◽  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Jing Huang ◽  
Wenjuan Niu
Keyword(s):  
Index System ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
State Response ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Pressure State

In this study, a new optimized comprehensive drought index system (OCDIS) was developed based on pressure-state-response (PSR) and random forest (RF). Then the pressure, state, response, and integrated agricultural drought risk were evaluated according to the synthetic-weight variable fuzzy set (SW-VFS) model. Finally, the countermeasures in terms of pressure, state, and response were discussed. The proposed index has been implemented in Qujing, Yunnan Province, China. The results showed that of the 10 indices included in the OCDIS, the four most important indices for agricultural drought risk management are reservoir storage capacity, precipitation anomaly percentage, soil moisture, and per capita annual income. The pressure risk and response risk of Malong are relatively higher than other counties. The integrated results indicated that most counties of Quijng have moderate drought risk. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of Qujing. The proposed model provides a scientific and objective way to develop the risk index system of agricultural drought. This study can potentially assist government agencies with information on the most important drought impacts and provide the basis for science-informed decision-making.

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