scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment in Southwest China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoqi Zeng ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Zhaolei Li ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Yahui Guo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought disasters jeopardize agricultural production and are expected to become more serious in the context of global climate change. However, in China, little attention has been paid to evaluating agricultural drought risk in humid areas (such as in Southwest China), which have also been affected by severe drought in recent years. In this work, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which was computed from high-quality monthly precipitation and temperature data from 92 rain-gauge stations across Southwest China, to study the drought characteristics (e.g., intensity, duration, and frequency) and their decadal variations from 1960 to 2017. Furthermore, we applied a widely accepted conceptual model that emphasizes the combined role of drought hazard (calculated by the intensity and frequency of drought) and agricultural drought vulnerability (integrated with high-resolution soil properties, climate, topography, irrigation, and gross domestic product) to conduct a spatial assessment of agricultural drought risk at a 1-km grid scale. The results revealed that drought has become more serious and frequent in Southwest China, especially since the 2000s. About 27.4% of the agricultural area has been exposed to an extremely high risk of drought, 33.5% to a high risk, 22.5% to a moderate risk, and 16.6% to a low risk. The extreme agricultural risk areas were located mainly in northeastern and southeastern Chongqing, southwestern Sichuan, northeastern and eastern Guizhou, and central and eastern Yunnan. Our findings highlighted that more attention should be paid to the agricultural drought risk in humid regions of China. Furthermore, this work could set the stage for policy makers and practitioners to take measures to reduce the agricultural drought risk in Southwest China.

scholarly journals Analysis of Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Information Distribution and Diffusion Methods in the Main Grain Production Areas of China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaijie Niu ◽  
Qingfang Hu ◽  
Lu Zhao ◽  
Shouzheng Jiang ◽  
Haiying Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Diffusion Method ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Grain Production ◽  
Information Distribution ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Vulnerability Curve ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Drought Damage

Accurate assessment of agricultural drought risk is of strategic significance to ensure future grain production security in the main grain production areas of China. Agricultural drought risk assessment is based on drought vulnerability characteristics. In this study, firstly the drought thresholds were redefined by correlation analysis of drought strength based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and drought damage rates, then the information distribution and the two-dimensional normal information diffusion method were employed to establish the vulnerability curve between drought strength and drought damage rates. Finally, provincial drought risks and the conditional probabilities at different drought damage stages were obtained. The results show that the drought vulnerability curve was nonlinear. With the increase of drought strength, drought damage rates increased rapidly at the beginning, and after a small fluctuation locally, they no longer increased significantly and tended to be relative stable. The occurrence probabilities of agricultural drought risk presented great spatial differences, with the characteristics of high in the northern, moderate in the central and southwestern part, and lower in the southeastern provinces in the main grain production areas of China. The analysis of conditional probability showed that Hubei, Henan, and Jiangxi were the provinces most prone to drought-affected risk under the drought-induced condition; while Liaoning, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia were the ones most prone to lost harvest risk under the drought-induced or the drought-affected condition. The results could be used to provide guidance for drought risk management and to formulate appropriate plans by the relevant departments.

scholarly journals Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in Southeast Gansu Province, Northwest China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (19) ◽  
pp. 5533
Author(s):  
Zhaoqi Zeng ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Zhaolei Li ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Han Huang
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
Agricultural Regions

The sector that suffers the most directly from drought is agriculture, and drought is expected to become more serious in the context of global warming. Effectively evaluating the agricultural drought risk is fundamental to establishing present water resource management and guaranteeing food security. Therefore, southeast Gansu province was selected for this study as a typical region for which to analyze drought trends and assess agricultural drought risk. Trends for the period from 1967 to 2018 were analyzed at 21 locations by using the Mann–Kendall method, and drought was quantified by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Spatial characteristics of the agricultural drought risk that emphasized the combined role of hazards and vulnerability were investigated at a 1-km grid scale. Results showed that the annual SPEI exhibited a nonsignificant increasing trend from 1967 to 1990 but that after 1990, the SPEI showed a steep downward trend of 0.1 per decade. The drying trend from 1990 to 2018 was mainly attributed to a significant increase in the reference evapotranspiration. Approximately 16.1% of the agricultural areas are exposed to an extremely high risk and 42.2% are exposed to high risk of drought. Moreover, 56.7% of the extremely high-risk agricultural areas are located in the Longnan region, which strongly suggests that more attention must be paid to preparedness for and mitigation of drought in the Longnan region. This study offers a scientific approach to evaluating the risk of agricultural drought in dry agricultural regions.

scholarly journals Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability in Zacatecas, Mexico

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1431
Author(s):  
David Ortega-Gaucin ◽  
Jesús A. Ceballos-Tavares ◽  
Alejandro Ordoñez Sánchez ◽  
Heidy V. Castellano-Bahena
Keyword(s):  
Risk Index ◽  
Hazard Index ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
The State ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
The World ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Drought is one of the major threats to water and food security in many regions around the world. The present study focuses on the evaluation of agricultural drought risk from an integrated perspective, that is, emphasizing the combined role of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to drought. For this purpose, we used the Mexican state of Zacatecas as a case study. This state is one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of agricultural drought in the country. The proposed method includes three stages: first, we analyzed the risk of agricultural drought at the municipal scale using the FAO Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) in its country version (Country-Level ASIS) and also determined a Drought Hazard Index (DHI). Subsequently, we conducted a municipal assessment of exposure and vulnerability to drought based on a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators, which we combined using an analytical procedure to generate the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) and the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI). Finally, we determined a Drought Risk Index (DRI) based on a weighted addition of the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indices. Results showed that 32% of the state’s municipalities are at high and very high risk of agricultural drought; these municipalities are located mainly in the center and north of the state, where 75.8% of agriculture is rainfed, 63.6% of production units are located, and 67.4% of the state’s population depends on agricultural activity. These results are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies analyzing drought in the state of Zacatecas using different meteorological drought indices, and the results are also largely in line with official data on agricultural surfaces affected by drought in this state. The generated maps can help stakeholders and public policymakers to guide investments and actions aimed at reducing vulnerability to and risk of agricultural drought. The method described can also be applied to other Mexican states or adapted for use in other states or countries around the world.

scholarly journals Why well yield matters for managing agricultural drought risk

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 11-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Foster ◽  
N. Brozović ◽  
A.P. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Well Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. 105689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreia F.S. Ribeiro ◽  
Ana Russo ◽  
Célia M. Gouveia ◽  
Patrícia Páscoa
Keyword(s):  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

scholarly journals Corrigendum: Integrating Behavioral Theories in Agent-Based Models for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teun Schrieks ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Marthe Wens ◽  
Toon Haer ◽  
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Agent Based Models ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Behavioral Theories ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk

scholarly journals Evaluating drought risk in data-scarce contexts. The case of southern Angola

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 44-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia Limones ◽  
Javier Marzo-Artigas ◽  
Marcus Wijnen ◽  
Aleix Serrat-Capdevila
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
The South ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Priority Areas ◽  
History Of ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Structured Approach

Abstract This paper pursues a methodological objective, developing and validating a structured approach for the recognition of areas under the highest levels of drought risk, suitable for data-scarce environments. The approach is based on recent scientific outcomes and methods and can be easily adapted to different contexts in subsequent exercises. The research reviews the history of hydro-meteorological drought in the south of Angola and characterizes the experienced hazard in the episode from 2012. Also, it intends to portray the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and the exposure to the phenomenon in the region to fully comprehend the risk. A list and map of these areas at high risk are two of the main outputs of this work. The results demonstrate that most of the region experienced a severe multi-year meteorological drought that was intensifying at the time of writing this paper, and that the majority of its impacts started immediately after the rainfall anomalies appeared. Last, the study confirms that the set of indicators used reveals different facets of vulnerability, leading to different drought vulnerability profiles in the south of Angola and, consequently, to several varieties of priority areas prone to distinctive impacts.

scholarly journals Regional Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Method Based on Risk Transforming Process

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanqi WEI ◽  
Yi CUI ◽  
Juliang JIN ◽  
Hiroshi ISHIDAIRA ◽  
Haichao LI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought Risk ◽  
Risk Curves ◽  
Drought Risk Management

Abstract Drought risk management can effectively reduce drought losses and improve drought resistance capability, of which drought risk assessment is the core issue. This study evaluated the agricultural drought risk in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province in China by the approach of constructing drought loss risk curves and risk distribution maps. The results showed that: 1) The drought events that occurred in northern regions (Huaibei and Suzhou) were with the characteristics of high-frequency and low-intensity, while in southern regions (Huainan and Bengbu), the occurring characteristics were low-frequency, high-intensity, and long-duration. 2) Without irrigation, Fuyang was the high-risk region with more than 80% potential yield loss rate, while Huainan was the relatively low-risk area with a potential yield loss of 50%. 3) Irrigation had a significant effect on reducing drought risk loss, while the efficiency was influenced by the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation. The irrigation scheme in study area still remains to be optimized based on the characteristics of precipitation and crop growth. This study established and practiced a quantitative framework for regional drought risk assessment by creating drought risk curves and risk maps, which have significant value in improving the regional agricultural drought risk management level.

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