scholarly journals GIS-Based Land Suitability and Crop Vulnerability Assessment under Climate Change in Chtouka Ait Baha, Morocco

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1167
Author(s):  
Marieme Seif-Ennasr ◽  
Lhoussaine Bouchaou ◽  
Zine El Abidine El Morjani ◽  
Abdelaziz Hirich ◽  
El Hassane Beraaouz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Vegetable Crops ◽  
Degree Days

Agriculture plays a crucial role in the economic development in Morocco, contributing to 14% of the national gross domestic product. However, this sector is facing various challenges, including climate change. This study aims to assess relevant indicators that may affect land suitability, water demand, and crop growing season duration under climate change. Further, it may be used as a decision support tool in the Chtouka area known for its irrigated agriculture. The approach proposed, the spatial distribution of land based on suitability, is founded on the multiple-criteria decision-making method of four parameters; soil texture, temperature, land use, and slope. The duration of the length of crop season was simulated using the concept of growing degree days. The projection of land suitability for 2031–2050 indicated an important decrease of 12.11% of “highly suitable” agricultural land under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and a significant increase of 4.68% of “highly unsuitable” land, according to the RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to the baseline (1985–2005). The projected growing degree days in 2031–2050 showed a strong shortening in the growing period length compared to the baseline 1985–2006, mainly under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, with a reduction from 8% to 21% depending on crops. Moreover, crop water productivity indicated that berries were over 50% less water productive than other vegetable crops for almost the same amount of applied irrigation water. These findings highlight the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change, which requires important political and management efforts to sustain agricultural activity.

scholarly journals Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 499-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brewer ◽  
J. Guiot ◽  
F. Torre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Holocene Climate Change ◽  
Correct Location

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.

Potential impacts of climate change on corn, soybeans and barley yields in Atlantic Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bootsma ◽  
S. Gameda ◽  
D. W. McKenney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Direct Effect ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Field Trials ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Water Deficits ◽  
Heat Units ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, relationships between agroclimatic indices and average yields of grain corn (Zea mays L.), soybeans (Glycine max L. Merr.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) in field trials conducted in eastern Canada are explored and then used to estimate potential impacts of climate change scenarios on anticipated average yields and total production of these commodities for the Atlantic region for the 2040 to 2069 period. Average yields of grain corn and soybeans were highly correlated (R2 = 0.86 and 0.74, respectively) with average available crop heat units (CHU), with yields increasing by about 0.006 t ha-1 CHU-1 for corn and 0.0013 t ha-1 CHU-1 for soybeans. The explained variance was not improved significantly when water deficit (DEFICIT) was included as an independent variable in regression. Correlations between average yields of barley and effective growing degree-days (EGDD) were low (R2 ≤ 0.26) and negative, i.e., there was a tendency for slightly lower yields at higher EGDD values. Including a second-order polynomial for DEFICIT in the regression increased the R2 to ≥ 0.58, indicating a tendency for lower barley yields in areas with high water deficits and with water surpluses. Based on a range of available heat units projected by multiple General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments, average yields achievable in field trials could increase by about 2.6 to 7.5 t ha-1 (40 to 115%) for corn, and by 0.6 to 1.5 t ha-1 (21 to 50%) for soybeans by 2040 to 2069, not including the direct effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, advances in plant breeding and crop production practices or changes in impacts of weeds, insects and diseases on yield. Anticipated reductions in barley yields are likely to be more than offset by the direct effect of increased CO2 concentrations. As a result of changes in potential yields, there will likely be significant shifts away from production of barley to high-energy and high-protein crops (corn and soybeans) that are better adapted to the warmer climate. However, barley and other small grain cereals will likely remain as important crops as they are very suited for rotation with potatoes. There is a need to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of these possible shifts in crop production, particularly with respect to soil erosion in the region. Key words: Crop heat units, growing degree-days, water deficits, crop yields, climate change, Atlantic region

scholarly journals Effect of Performance of Water Stashes Irrigation Approaches on Selected Species of Plant’s Water Productivity in Urban Rooftop Agriculture with Respect to Climate Change

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Musammat Shahinara Begum ◽  
Sujit Kumar Bala ◽  
AKM Saiful Islam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Drip Irrigation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Irrigation Method ◽  
Rooftop Agriculture

Urbanization and population growth have led to urban areas with a substantial concrete surface compared to adjacent rural areas, creating challenges regarding fresh food, water security, and the need for agricultural land. Climate change affects the rainfall pattern and ground water in urban areas, so the gradual growth of urban rooftop agriculture (URTA) is an increasing trend for the owners of residential buildings. URTA is increasing in the form of private initiatives, but without consideration of efficient water management techniques and application of other related inputs. URTA differs substantially from traditional agriculture in terms of sunshine, thermal regime, the moisture dynamics of a concrete roof top, etc. Considering these aspects of URTA, an effective, efficient, science-based and economically viable irrigation method is necessary to popularize this approach and consequently increase the productivity of crops. With this in mind, the drip irrigation method is considered for the cultivation and determination of water productivity for selected species of plants such as the Bottle Gourd, Tomato, Chili, and Brinjal in the URTA, which was also compared to the traditional irrigation approach. This is why groundwater and green (grey and rain) water were considered as the source of irrigation during the dry season, based on the daily crop evapotranspiration and moisture content of the plant growing medium. For this reason, ET0 of the selected crops was measured using the CROPWAT 8.0 model. The results of this study revealed that the optimum irrigation water requirement of any crop in URTA is around 54% access (ETc), and 46–64% of access irrigation water is used by the traditional method compared to the drip irrigation method. The study reported that with drip irrigation with potable water, the yield was increased by 21.43–22.40% and rain and grey-water also increased yield by 31.87–33.33% compared to container and traditional pipe irrigation. It was also found that the water qualities of mixed water (grey and rainwater) are in an acceptable range limit for irrigation. As a result, urban planners, city dwellers, and researchers can formulate appropriate plans to cultivate different species of plants through this water saving irrigation method using green water, and should explore the concept of water-smart URTA technologies as organic inventions embedded in these results.

scholarly journals Increasing and Sustaining Agricultural Productivity through Land Improvement Approach: A Mitigation Measure to Climate Change

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 66-72
Author(s):  
Rishi R.S. Neupane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Command Area ◽  
Irrigation Canal ◽  
Mitigation Measure ◽  
Agriculture Development ◽  
Land Improvement

Due to greenhouse gas effect temperature around the world will increase (0.06ºC/yr.) resulting in increased evapo-transpiration and increased need of crop irrigation pressurizing ground water resources and its judicious use. An experiment in a deep tubewell area with improved land and irrigation management undertaken in early 1980’s has shown that doubling of agricultural productivity is possible. This system can be taken as mitigative/adaptive measure of climate change.This paper involves experiences of managing tubewell irrigation schemes through improving basically these development parameters in the irrigation command area: Land improvement (land consolidation, rectangular shaping and leveling), Irrigation canal efficiency improvement,Introduction of crop water management, and Evolving Farmers Group into a Co-operative Organization- for managing land collectively. The evaluation has shown that through this intervention approach yields of paddy, wheat, maize and pulse can be doubled in the irrigated areas. This concept might be useful to modify the present policy and program vision of irrigated agriculture development in Nepal through enhancing water productivity a mitigation measure of the effects of climate change. Also, this approach is applicable to surface irrigation schemes of Terai and hills of Nepal.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v10i0.7117 Hydro Nepal Vol.10 January 2012 66-72

scholarly journals Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Costa ◽  
Helder Fraga ◽  
André Fonseca ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Maria C. Val ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Wine Region

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

scholarly journals Innovation Issues in Water, Agriculture and Food

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria do Rosário Cameira ◽  
Luís Santos Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Irrigation Scheduling ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
The Impact

The main challenge faced by agriculture is to produce enough food for a continued increase in population, however in the context of ever-growing competition for water and land, climate change, droughts and anthropic water scarcity, and less-participatory water governance. Such a context implies innovative issues in agricultural water management and practices, at both the field and the system or the basin scales, mainly in irrigation to cope with water scarcity, environmental friendliness, and rural society welfare. Therefore, this special issue was set to present and discuss recent achievements in water, agriculture, and food nexus at different scales, thus to promote sustainable development of irrigated agriculture and to develop integrated approaches to water and food. Papers cover various domains including: (a) evapotranspiration and crop water use; (b) improving water management in irrigated agriculture, particularly irrigation scheduling; (c) adaptation of agricultural systems to enhance water use and water productivity to face water scarcity and climate change; (d) improving irrigation systems design and management adopting multi-criteria and risk approaches; (e) ensuring sustainable management for anthropic ecosystems favoring safe and high-quality food production, as well as the conservation of natural ecosystems; (f) assessing the impact of water scarcity and, mainly, droughts; (g) conservation of water quality resources, namely by preventing contamination with nitrates; (h) use of modern mapping technologies and remote sensing information; and (i) fostering a participative and inclusive governance of water for food security and population welfare.

Impacts of potential climate change on selected agroclimatic indices in Atlantic Canada

2005 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bootsma ◽  
S. Gameda and D.W. McKenney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Atlantic Region ◽  
Water Deficits ◽  
Heat Units ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
The Impact

Agroclimatic indices (heat units and water deficits) were determined for the Atlantic region of Canada for a baseline climate (1961 to 1990 period) and for two future time periods (2010 to 2039 and 2040 to 2069). Climate scenarios for the future periods were primarily based on outputs from the Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) that included the effects of aerosols (CGCMI-A), but variability introduced by multiple GCM experiments was also examined. Climatic data for all three periods were interpolated to a grid of about 10 to 15 km. Agroclimatic indices were computed and mapped based on the gridded data. Based on CGCMI-A scenarios interpolated to the fine grid, average crop heat units (CHU) would increase by 300 to 500 CHU for the 2010 to 2039 period and by 500 to 700 CHU for the 2040 to 2069 period in the main agricultural areas of the Atlantic region. However, increases in CHU for the 2040 to 2069 period typically varied from 450 to 1650 units in these regions when variability among GCM experiments was considered, resulting in a projected range of 2650 to 4000 available CHU. Effective growing degree-days above 5°C (EGDD) typically increased by about 400 units for the 2040 to 2069 period in the main agricultural areas, resulting in available EGDD from 1800 to over 2000 units. Uncertainty introduced by multiple GCMs increased the range from 1700 to 2700 EGDD. A decrease in heat units (cooling) is anticipated along part of the coast of Labrador. Anticipated changes in water deficits (DEFICIT), defined as the amount by which potential evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation over the growing season, typically ranged from +50 to −50 mm for both periods, but this range widened from +50 to −100 mm when variability among GCM experiments was considered. The greatest increases in deficits were expected in the central region of New Brunswick for the 2040 to 2069 period. Our interpolation procedures estimated mean winter and summer temperature changes that were 1.4°C on average lower than a statistical downscaling procedure (SDSM) for four locations. Increases in precipitation during summer and autumn averaged 20% less than SDSM. During periods when SDSM estimated relatively small changes in temperature or precipitation, our interpolation procedure tended to produce changes that were larger than SDSM. Additional investigations would be beneficial that explore the impact of a range of scenarios from other GCM models, other downscaling methods and the potential effects of change in climate variability on these agroclimatic indices. Potential impacts of these changes on crop yields and production in the region also need to be explored. Key words: Crop heat units, effective growing degree-days, water deficits, climate change scenarios, statistical downscaling, spatial interpolation

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