scholarly journals Can Pre-Storm Errors in the Low-Level Inflow Help Predict Spatial Displacement Errors in MCS Initiation?

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Nicholas J. Vertz ◽  
William A. Gallus ◽  
Brian J. Squitieri
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Spatial Displacement ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Thermodynamic Variables ◽  
The Right

The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is a contributing factor to the initiation and evolution of nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the central United States by supplying moisture, warm air advection, and a source of convergence. Thus, the ability of models to correctly depict thermodynamics in the LLJ likely influences how accurately they forecast MCSs. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to examine the relationship between spatial displacement errors for initiating simulated MCSs, and errors in forecast thermodynamic variables up to three hours before downstream MCS initiation in 18 cases. Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses in 3 layers below 1500 m above ground level were used to represent observations. Correlations between simulated MCS initiation spatial displacements and errors in the magnitude of forecast thermodynamic variables were examined in regions near and upstream of both observed and simulated MCSs, and were found to vary depending on the synoptic environment. In strongly-forced cases, large negative moisture errors resulted in simulated MCSs initiating further downstream with respect to the low-level flow from those observed. For weakly-forced cases, correlations were weaker, with a tendency for smaller negative moisture errors to be associated with larger displacement errors to the right of the inflow direction for initiating MCSs.

scholarly journals Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Soil Moisture for Improved Forecasts of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (11) ◽  
pp. 4607-4627
Author(s):  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Shubhi Agrawal ◽  
Mark C. Beauharnois ◽  
Geng Xia ◽  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
South Central ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractIn the context of forecasting societally impactful Great Plains low-level jets (GPLLJs), the potential added value of satellite soil moisture (SM) data assimilation (DA) is high. GPLLJs are both sensitive to regional soil moisture gradients and frequent drivers of severe weather, including mesoscale convective systems. An untested hypothesis is that SM DA is more effective in forecasts of weakly synoptically forced, or uncoupled GPLLJs, than in forecasts of cyclone-induced coupled GPLLJs. Using the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model, 75 GPLLJs are simulated at 9-km resolution both with and without NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive SM DA. Differences in modeled SM, surface sensible (SH) and latent heat (LH) fluxes, 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m humidity (Q2), PBL height (PBLH), and 850-hPa wind speed (W850) are quantified for individual jets and jet-type event subsets over the south-central Great Plains, as well as separately for each GPLLJ sector (entrance, core, and exit). At the GPLLJ core, DA-related changes of up to 5.4 kg m−2 in SM can result in T2, Q2, LH, SH, PBLH, and W850 differences of 0.68°C, 0.71 g kg−2, 59.9 W m−2, 52.4 W m−2, 240 m, and 4 m s−1, respectively. W850 differences focus along the jet axis and tend to increase from south to north. Jet-type differences are most evident at the GPLLJ exit where DA increases and decreases W850 in uncoupled and coupled GPLLJs, respectively. Data assimilation marginally reduces negative wind speed bias for all jets, but the correction is greater for uncoupled GPLLJs, as hypothesized.

scholarly journals Multiscale Processes Enabling the Longevity and Daytime Persistence of a Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective System

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (2) ◽  
pp. 733-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manda B. Chasteen ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
David B. Parsons
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Unstable Environment

Abstract Nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) frequently develop over the Great Plains in the presence of a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ), which contributes to convective maintenance by providing a source of instability, convergence, and low-level vertical wind shear. Although these nocturnal MCSs often dissipate during the morning, many persist into the following afternoon despite the cessation of the LLJ with the onset of solar heating. The environmental factors enabling the postsunrise persistence of nocturnal convection are currently not well understood. A thorough investigation into the processes supporting the longevity and daytime persistence of an MCS was conducted using routine observations, RAP analyses, and a WRF-ARW simulation. Elevated nocturnal convection developed in response to enhanced frontogenesis, which quickly grew upscale into a severe quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). The western portion of this QLCS reorganized into a bow echo with a pronounced cold pool and ultimately an organized leading-line, trailing-stratiform MCS as it moved into an increasingly unstable environment. Differential advection resulting from the interaction of the nocturnal LLJ with the topography of west Texas established considerable heterogeneity in moisture, CAPE, and CIN, which influenced the structure and evolution of the MCS. An inland-advected moisture plume significantly increased near-surface CAPE during the nighttime over central Texas, while the environment over southeastern Texas abruptly destabilized following the commencement of surface heating and downward moisture transport. The unique topography of the southern plains and the close proximity to the Gulf of Mexico provided an environment conducive to the postsunrise persistence of the organized MCS.

Numerical Study on the Formation of Typhoon Ketsana (2003). Part I: Roles of the Mesoscale Convective Systems

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (1) ◽  
pp. 100-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyan Lu ◽  
Kevin K. W. Cheung ◽  
Yihong Duan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Formation Time ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract The effects of multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) on the formation of Typhoon Ketsana (2003) are analyzed in this study. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with assimilation of Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) oceanic winds and total precipitable water are performed. The WRF model simulates well the large-scale features, the convective episodes associated with the MCSs and their periods of development, and the formation time and location of Ketsana. With the successive occurrence of MCSs, midlevel average relative vorticity is strengthened through generation of mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) mainly via the vertical stretching mechanism. Scale separation shows that the activity of the vortical hot tower (VHT)-type meso-γ-scale vortices correlated well with the development of the MCSs. These VHTs have large values of positive relative vorticity induced by intense low-level convergence, and thus play an important role in the low-level vortex enhancement with aggregation of VHTs as one of the possible mechanisms. Four sensitivity experiments are performed to analyze the possible different roles of the MCSs during the formation of Ketsana by modifying the vertical relative humidity profile in each MCS and consequently the strength of convection within. The results show that the development of an MCS depends substantially on that of the prior ones through remoistening of the midtroposphere, and thus leading to different scenarios of system intensification during the tropical cyclone (TC) formation. The earlier MCSs are responsible for the first stage vortex enhancement, and depending on the location can affect quite largely the simulated formation location. The extreme convection within the last MCS before formation largely determines the formation time.

The Role of Upper-Level Coupling on Great Plains Low-Level Jet Structure and Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 77 (12) ◽  
pp. 4317-4335
Author(s):  
D. Alex Burrows ◽  
Craig R. Ferguson ◽  
Lance F. Bosart
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Inertial Oscillation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Southern Central ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level

AbstractThe Great Plains (GP) southerly nocturnal low-level jet (GPLLJ) is a dominant contributor to the region’s warm-season (May–September) mean and extreme precipitation, wind energy generation, and severe weather outbreaks—including mesoscale convective systems. The spatiotemporal structure, variability, and impact of individual GPLLJ events are closely related to their degree of upper-level synoptic coupling, which varies from strong coupling in synoptic trough–ridge environments to weak coupling in quiescent, synoptic ridge environments. Here, we apply an objective dynamic classification of GPLLJ upper-level coupling and fully characterize strongly coupled (C) and relatively uncoupled (UC) GPLLJs from the perspective of the ground-based observer. Through composite analyses of C and UC GPLLJ event samples taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Coupled Earth Reanalysis of the twentieth century (CERA-20C), we address how the frequency of these jet types, as well as their inherent weather- and climate-relevant characteristics—including wind speed, direction, and shear; atmospheric stability; and precipitation—vary on diurnal and monthly time scales across the southern, central, and northern subregions of the GP. It is shown that C and UC GPLLJ events have similar diurnal phasing, but the diurnal amplitude is much greater for UC GPLLJs. C GPLLJs tend to have a faster and more elevated jet nose, less low-level wind shear, and enhanced CAPE and precipitation. UC GPLLJs undergo a larger inertial oscillation (Blackadar mechanism) for all subregions, and C GPLLJs have greater geostrophic forcing (Holton mechanism) in the southern and northern GP. The results underscore the need to differentiate between C and UC GPLLJs in future seasonal forecast and climate prediction activities.

scholarly journals A Case Study on the Far-Field Properties of Propagating Tropospheric Gravity Waves

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (8) ◽  
pp. 2947-2961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia C. Stephan ◽  
M. Joan Alexander ◽  
Michael Hedlin ◽  
Catherine D. de Groot-Hedlin ◽  
Lars Hoffmann
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Propagation Characteristics ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
The Waves

Abstract Mesoscale gravity waves were observed by barometers deployed as part of the USArray Transportable Array on 29 June 2011 near two mesoscale convective systems in the Great Plains region of the United States. Simultaneously, AIRS satellite data indicated stratospheric gravity waves propagating away from the location of active convection. Peak perturbation pressure values associated with waves propagating outside of regions where there was precipitation reached amplitudes close to 400 Pa at the surface. Here the origins of the waves and their relationship to observed precipitation are investigated with a specialized model study. Simulations with a 4-km resolution dry numerical model reproduce the propagation characteristics and amplitudes of the observed waves with a high degree of quantitative similarity despite the absence of any boundary layer processes, surface topography, or moist physics in the model. The model is forced with a three-dimensional, time-dependent latent heating/cooling field that mimics the latent heating inside the precipitation systems. The heating is derived from the network of weather radar precipitation observations. This shows that deep, intense latent heat release within the precipitation systems is the key forcing mechanism for the waves observed at ground level by the USArray. Furthermore, the model simulations allow for a more detailed investigation of the vertical structure and propagation characteristics of the waves. It is found that the stratospheric and tropospheric waves are triggered by the same sources, but have different spectral properties. Results also suggest that the propagating tropospheric waves may potentially remotely interact with and enhance active precipitation.

scholarly journals An Observational Study of Mesoscale Convective Systems with Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyung Woo Kim ◽  
Dong Kyou Lee
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract A heavy rainfall event induced by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) occurred over the middle Korean Peninsula from 25 to 27 July 1996. This heavy rainfall caused a large loss of life and property damage as a result of flash floods and landslides. An observational study was conducted using Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from 0930 UTC 26 July to 0303 UTC 27 July 1996. Dominant synoptic features in this case had many similarities to those in previous studies, such as the presence of a quasi-stationary frontal system, a weak upper-level trough, sufficient moisture transportation by a low-level jet from a tropical storm landfall, strong potential and convective instability, and strong vertical wind shear. The thermodynamic characteristics and wind shear presented favorable conditions for a heavy rainfall occurrence. The early convective cells in the MCSs initiated over the coastal area, facilitated by the mesoscale boundaries of the land–sea contrast, rain–no rain regions, saturated–unsaturated soils, and steep horizontal pressure and thermal gradients. Two MCSs passed through the heavy rainfall regions during the investigation period. The first MCS initiated at 1000 UTC 26 July and had the characteristics of a supercell storm with small amounts of precipitation, the appearance of a mesocyclone with tilting storm, a rear-inflow jet at the midlevel of the storm, and fast forward propagation. The second MCS initiated over the upstream area of the first MCS at 1800 UTC 26 July and had the characteristics of a multicell storm, such as a broken areal-type squall line, slow or quasi-stationary backward propagation, heavy rainfall in a concentrated area due to the merging of the convective storms, and a stagnated cluster system. These systems merged and stagnated because their movement was blocked by the Taebaek Mountain Range, and they continued to develop because of the vertical wind shear resulting from a low-level easterly inflow.

scholarly journals Characteristics and Formation of a Synoptic Situation Causing Sudden Turning of Mesoscale Convective Systems over South China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 191
Author(s):  
Zhaoming Liang ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
Jinfang Yin
Keyword(s):  
Eastern China ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Synoptic Situation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Northwestern Pacific Ocean ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Turning Motion

The characteristics and formation of a synoptic situation that causes a sudden turning motion of warm-sector mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South China are described, based on the collection and investigation of associated cases during April–June 2011–2017 using high-resolution observational data and ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim data. The results show that the blocking of a marked low-level high over eastern China (eastern high) on a strengthening low-level trough over southwestern China (southwestern trough) results in significant enhancement of southerly winds ahead of the trough, which produces a strong southeastward vertical wind shear at low levels near western Guangdong province. This low-level vertical wind shear results in sudden southeastward turning motion for the warm-sector MCSs entering into Guangdong province from Guangxi province. The formation of the eastern high is mainly attributable to the strong cyclonic wind anomaly over the northwestern Pacific Ocean, which continuously brings cold air from higher latitudes to eastern China, where high synoptic-scale transient anomaly of geopotential height (SSTA-GH) forms. This cyclonic wind anomaly is induced by a low SSTA-GH, which travels from the north and south sides of the Tibetan Plateau to the northwestern Pacific Ocean and develops significantly as a result of a strong upper-level low SSTA-GH coupling with it or approaching it. On the other hand, the high SSTA-GH over eastern China blocks the eastward extension of the low SSTA-GH originating from the Tibetan Plateau. Consequently, this low SSTA-GH turns to extend or move southeastward/southward to southwestern China, leading to intensification of the southwestern trough.

Regional, Seasonal, and Diurnal Variations of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning with Large Impulse Charge Moment Changes

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
pp. 3666-3682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick K. Beavis ◽  
Timothy J. Lang ◽  
Steven A. Rutledge ◽  
Walter A. Lyons ◽  
Steven A. Cummer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Total Charge ◽  
Central Plains ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Seasonal And Diurnal Variations ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract The use of both total charge moment change (CMC) and impulse charge moment change (iCMC) magnitudes to assess the potential of a cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning stroke to induce a mesospheric sprite has been well described in the literature, particularly on a case study basis. In this climatological study, large iCMC discharges for thresholds of >100 and >300 C km in both positive and negative polarities are analyzed on a seasonal basis. Also presented are local solar time diurnal distributions in eight different regions covering the lower 48 states as well as the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, including the Gulf Stream. The seasonal maps show the predisposition of large positive iCMCs to dominate across the northern Great Plains, with large negative iCMCs favored in the southeastern United States year-round. During summer, the highest frequency of large positive iCMCs across the upper Midwest aligns closely with the preferred tracks of nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). As iCMC values increase above 300 C km, the maximum shifts eastward of the 100 C km maximum in the central plains. Diurnal distributions in the eight regions support these conclusions, with a nocturnal peak in large iCMC discharges in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes, an early to midafternoon peak in the Intermountain West and the southeastern United States, and a morning peak in large iCMC discharge activity over the Atlantic Ocean. Large negative iCMCs peak earlier in time than large positive iCMCs, which may be attributed to the growth of large stratiform charge reservoirs following initial convective development.

scholarly journals Pristine Nocturnal Convective Initiation: A Climatology and Preliminary Examination of Predictability

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1613-1635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Stelten ◽  
William A. Gallus
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Geostrophic Wind ◽  
Formation Mechanisms ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Preliminary Examination ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Times

Abstract The prediction of convective initiation remains a challenge to forecasters in the Great Plains, especially for elevated events at night. This study examines a subset of 287 likely elevated nocturnal convective initiation events that occurred with little or no direct influence from surface boundaries or preexisting convection over a 4-month period of May–August during the summer of 2015. Events were first classified into one of four types based on apparent formation mechanisms and location relative to any low-level jet. A climatology of each of the four types was performed focusing on general spatial tendencies over a large Great Plains domain and initiation timing trends. Simulations from five convection-allowing models available during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, along with four versions of a 4-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, were used to examine the predictability of these types of convective initiation. A dual-peak pattern for initiation timing was revealed, with one peak near 0400 UTC and another around 0700 UTC. The times and prominence of each peak shifted depending on the region analyzed. Positive thermal advection by the geostrophic wind was present in the majority of events for three types but not for the type occurring without a low-level jet. Models were more deficient with location than timing for the five PECAN models, with the four 4-km WRF Models showing similar location errors and problems with initiating convection at a lower altitude than observed.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Moisture Transport by the Low-Level Jet during the IHOP Field Experiment

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (10) ◽  
pp. 3781-3795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward I. Tollerud ◽  
Fernando Caracena ◽  
Steven E. Koch ◽  
Brian D. Jamison ◽  
R. Michael Hardesty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Scale ◽  
Low Level Jet

Previous studies of the low-level jet (LLJ) over the central Great Plains of the United States have been unable to determine the role that mesoscale and smaller circulations play in the transport of moisture. To address this issue, two aircraft missions during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) were designed to observe closely a well-developed LLJ over the Great Plains (primarily Oklahoma and Kansas) with multiple observation platforms. In addition to standard operational platforms (most important, radiosondes and profilers) to provide the large-scale setting, dropsondes released from the aircraft at 55-km intervals and a pair of onboard lidar instruments—High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) for wind and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) for moisture—observed the moisture transport in the LLJ at greater resolution. Using these observations, the authors describe the multiscalar structure of the LLJ and then focus attention on the bulk properties and effects of scales of motion by computing moisture fluxes through cross sections that bracket the LLJ. From these computations, the Reynolds averages within the cross sections can be computed. This allow an estimate to be made of the bulk effect of integrated estimates of the contribution of small-scale (mesoscale to convective scale) circulations to the overall transport. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in forecasting the intensity and evolution of the LLJ for this case is briefly examined.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document