scholarly journals Granger Causality on forward and Reversed Time Series

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 409
Author(s):  
Martina Chvosteková ◽  
Jozef Jakubík ◽  
Anna Krakovská
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Reversal ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Backward Analysis

In this study, the information flow time arrow is investigated for stochastic data defined by vector autoregressive models. The time series are analyzed forward and backward by different Granger causality detection methods. Besides the normal distribution, which is usually required for the validity of Granger causality analysis, several other distributions of predictive errors are considered. A clear effect of a change in the order of cause and effect on the time-reversed series of unidirectionally connected variables was detected with standard Granger causality test (GC), when the product of the connection strength and the ratio of the predictive errors of the driver and the recipient was below a certain level, otherwise bidirectional causal connection was detected. On the other hand, opposite causal link was detected unconditionally by the methods based on the time reversal testing, but they were not able to detect correct bidirectional connection. The usefulness of the backward analysis is manifested in cases where falsely detected unidirectional connections can be rejected by applying the result obtained after the time reversal, and in cases of uncorrelated causally independent variables, where the absence of a causal link detected by GC on the original series should be confirmed on the time-reversed series.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis on Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
pp. 214-218
Author(s):  
Md Shafiul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
External Finance ◽  
The Relationship

In Bangladesh, migrant worker’s remittances constitute one of the most significant sources of external finance. This paper investigates the existence of relation between remittance inflow and GDP and the causal link between them in Bangladesh by employing the Granger causality test under a VECM framework. Using time series data over a 38 year period, we found that growth in remittances does lead to economic growth in Bangladesh. In addition to the relationship, this paper also points out some issues that are working as impediments in getting remittance and give some recommendations to overcome those impediments.

Fraud and Bank Performance in Nigeria – Var Granger Causality Analysis

e-Finanse ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-26
Author(s):  
Taiwo A. Muritala ◽  
Muftau A. Ijaiya ◽  
Olatanwa H. Afolabi ◽  
Abdulrasheed B. Yinus
Keyword(s):  
Control Systems ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Internal Control ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Granger Causality Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Multivariate Cointegration

AbstractThis paper examines the causality between fraud and bank performance in Nigeria over the period 2000-2016 for quarterly financial data using Johansen’s Multivariate Cointegration Model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Granger Causality analysis. The results show a long-run relationship between the variables. Bank performance was found to be linked to Granger fraud variables and vice versa at 10% significant level. This study reveals that there was a direct causal relationship between bank performance and fraud because increase in fraudulent activities in the banking sector leads to reduction in bank performance. Hence, this study recommends that internal control systems of banks should be strengthened so as to detect and prevent fraud. In this way, bank assets would be protected.

scholarly journals INTER-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE HOUSING MARKET AND HOUSING FINANCE SYSTEM: EVIDENCE FROM MALAYSIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosli Said ◽  
Alaistair Adair ◽  
Stanley McGreal ◽  
Rohayu Majid
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Housing Finance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Finance System

The Malaysian housing market and associated housing finance system have expanded significantly as a result of rapid urbanisation since the late 1980s. The key aspect of this paper is to analyse the inter-relationship between the housing market and housing finance system in Malaysia. The paper employs Vector Autoregressive approach and Granger Causality test to empirically investigate this inter-relationship. In Malaysia, no housing studies has actually looked into or used this approach to identify the inter-relationship between these two elements. The key findings show that there is a strong inter-relationship between the housing market and housing finance system. The direction of causality shows that there is a bi-directional relationship between the housing market and housing finance system. These inter-relationships provide evidence that sound performance of the sub-markets within the housing finance system is a determinant prerequisite of the robustness of the housing finance system, if a healthy performance of the housing market is to be achieved.

scholarly journals PRICE INTERACTIONS AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS AMONG CORN, EXCHANGE RATE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN SOURCES IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Unekwu Onuche
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Poultry Meat ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Meat Price ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Price transmissions between corn, exchange rate, poultry meat, and fish were investigated using the data from OECD-FAO for the years 1990-2019, to establish the existence of long-term relationships between them and identify their directions of causality, in order to elicit investmentaiding facts. The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Johansen cointegration approach and the Granger causality test were employed. Following the ADF test, all series are I(1), while the cointegration test indicates short-run dynamics between them. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) system reveals that poultry meat price influences all variables, prices of poultry meat and exchange rate relate positively to their own lags, and exchange rate relates positively to lags of poultry meat prices. A positive relationship was noticed between fish price and lags of poultry meat price, while corn price relates positively with lags of poultry meat price. Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional drives from poultry price to fish price, the exchange rate to fish price and poultry meat price to corn price. Responses from prices of fish, corn and poultry to innovations from exchange rate are negative, while positive responses exist in other scenarios. Exchange rate stabilization will mitigate external risks, especially to the fisheries sector, while corn farmers can increase profits in the short-run by exploring knowledge of poultry meat price movements.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahmud Mostafa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

scholarly journals A Study on Estimation and Prediction of Vector Time Series Model Using Financial Big Data (Interest Rates)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 309-316
Author(s):  
Jae-Hyun Kim, Chang-Ho An
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Call Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Due to the global economic downturn, the Korean economy continues to slump. Hereupon the Bank of Korea implemented a monetary policy of cutting the base rate to actively respond to the economic slowdown and low prices. Economists have been trying to predict and analyze interest rate hikes and cuts. Therefore, in this study, a prediction model was estimated and evaluated using vector autoregressive model with time series data of long- and short-term interest rates. The data used for this purpose were call rate (1 day), loan interest rate, and Treasury rate (3 years) between January 2002 and December 2019, which were extracted monthly from the Bank of Korea database and used as variables, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used as a research model. The stationarity test of variables was confirmed by the ADF-unit root test. Bidirectional linear dependency relationship between variables was confirmed by the Granger causality test. For the model identification, AICC, SBC, and HQC statistics, which were the minimum information criteria, were used. The significance of the parameters was confirmed through t-tests, and the fitness of the estimated prediction model was confirmed by the significance test of the cross-correlation matrix and the multivariate Portmanteau test. As a result of predicting call rate, loan interest rate, and Treasury rate using the prediction model presented in this study, it is predicted that interest rates will continue to drop.

HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS HARGA JUAL DAN HARGA SEWA APARTEMEN DI JABODETABEK

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-105
Author(s):  
Zainal Zawir Simon ◽  
Effendy Zain ◽  
Zulihar Zulihar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Granger Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Relationship

Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan kausalitas antara harga jual apartemen dan harga sewa apartemen di wilayah Jabodetabek. Data yang dipergunakan adalah data  time series dalam bentuk kuartalan untuk periode 2007:1-2018:3 dan alat analisis yang dipergunakan adalah analisa kausalitas Granger. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas antara harga jual apartemen dan harga sewa apartemen di wilayah Jabodetabek. Dengan kata lain perubahan harga jual  tidak mempengaruhi harga sewa. Sebaliknya harga sewa juga tidak mempengaruhi harga jual apartemen. Dengan demikian Investor diharapkan dalam melakukan analisis investasinya memasukkan faktor-faktor lain yang dapat mempengaruhi harga jual dan harga sewa untuk apartemen, agar terlepas dari pandangan bahwa harga jual mempengaruhi harga sewa dan sebaliknya.Kata Kunci : Harga Jual apartemen, Harga Sewa Apartemen, Data Runtut Waktu, Analisa Kausalitas GrangerABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the causality relationship between the selling price of apartments and apartment rental prices in the Greater Jakarta area. The data used are time series data in quarterly form for the period 2007: 1-2018: 3 and the analysis tool used is the Granger causality analysis. The results showed that there was no causality relationship between apartment selling prices and apartment rental prices in the Greater Jakarta area. In other words, changes in selling prices do not affect rental prices. Conversely the rental price also does not affect the selling price of the apartment. Thus Investors are expected to carry out investment analysis to include other factors that can affect the selling price and rental price for an apartment, so that regardless of the view that the selling price affects the rental price and vice versa.Keywords : Selling Price of apartments, rental prices apartments, time series data, Granger Causality Analysis

The relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong (1992–2015): Evidence from sectoral analysis and implications on future energy policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-236
Author(s):  
Ruixiaoxiao Zhang ◽  
Geoffrey QP Shen ◽  
Meng Ni ◽  
Johnny Wong
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Per Capita

The causal relationship between energy consumption and gross domestic product in Hong Kong from 1992 to 2015 is investigated in this study. Different from the previous studies focusing on the causal relationship between total energy consumption and total gross domestic product per capita, this study further investigates the causal relationship from sectoral perspective, including residential, commercial, industrial and transportation sectors. For each sector, the time series data of sectoral energy consumption and sectoral per capita value added are collected. To conduct the Granger causality test, the unit root test is first applied to analyse the stationarity of time series. The cointegration test is then employed to examine whether causal relationship exists in long-term. Finally, based on the aforementioned tests, both vector error correction model and vector autoregression model can be selected to determine the Granger causality between time series. It is interesting to find that the sectoral energy consumption and corresponding sectoral per capita value-added exhibit quite different causal relationships. For both residential sector and commercial sectors, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from the sectoral per capita value added to sectoral energy consumption. Oppositely, for industrial sector and transportation sector, a unidirectional causal relationship is found running from sectoral energy consumption to sectoral per capita value added. Regarding the Granger causality test results, the indicative suggestions on energy conservation policies, energy efficiency policies and greenhouse gas emission reduction policies are discussed based on the background of Hong Kong’s economic structure and fuel types.

Dynamic effect of Tobin's Q on price-to-earnings ratio

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 634-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vichet Sum
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Ratio Change ◽  
Pe Ratio

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effect of Tobin's q ratio on price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. Design/methodology/approach – The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic effect of Tobin's q on PE ratio. To achieve this objective, a vector autoregressive analysis (Equation (1)) is employed to analyze the quarterly data from 1951Q4 to 2012Q4 to determine the generalized impulse response functions and perform the variance decomposition of Tobin's q ratio on PE ratio. The Granger causality Wald test is performed to determine if Tobin's q ratio causes PE ratio and vice versa. Findings – Based on the analysis of the quarterly market-level data from 1951Q4 to 2012Q4, the results show that PE ratio significantly drops immediately following the shock to the change in Tobin's q ratio. The results from the Granger-causality test indicate that Tobin's q ratio change causes PE ratio to drop. There is not a reverse causation from PE ratio to Tobin's q ratio change. The variance decomposition results reveal that Tobin's q ratio change forecasts about 67.53 to 67.78 percent of PE ratio at the two-quarter to eight-quarter horizons. Originality/value – Up to this point, there is not a single study in the literature investigating the relationship between Tobin's q and PE ratios. Consequently, the current study is set up to investigate the dynamic effect of Tobin's q ratio on PE ratio. A major contribution of this study is to provide empirical evidence of the dynamic effect of Tobin's q ratio on PE ratio.

scholarly journals Interactions of viral pathogens on hospital admissions for pneumonia, croup and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases: results of a multivariate time-series analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (6) ◽  
pp. 1174-1178 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. E. G. UPSHUR ◽  
R. MOINEDDIN ◽  
E. J. CRIGHTON ◽  
M. MAMDANI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
The Impact

Co-circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza has made the partitioning of morbidity and mortality from each virus difficult. Given the interaction between chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) and pneumonia, often one can be mistaken for the other. Multivariate time-series methodology was applied to examine the impact of RSV and influenza on hospital admissions for bronchiolitis, pneumonia, and COPD. The Granger Causality Test, used to determine the causal relationship among series, showed that COPD and pneumonia are not influenced by RSV (P=0·2999 and 0·7725), but RSV does influence bronchiolitis (P=0·0001). Influenza was found to influence COPD, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis (P<0·0001). The use of multivariate time series and Granger causality applied to epidemiological data clearly illustrates the significant contribution of influenza and RSV to morbidity in the population.

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