scholarly journals Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 981 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Guojin Qin ◽  
Yihuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Event Tree Analysis

In view of the vegetation reduction caused by the continuous construction of oil and gaspipelines, the pipelines have been designed to be laid in one ditch to reduce land occupation.However, owing to the small spacing between the pipelines, the fault correlation between pipelineshas been proven to increase the potential hazard of adjacent pipelines and routing environments.The neglect of failure correlation in existing risk assessment methods leads to inaccurate results,which will lead to errors in maintenance decisions. Therefore, this paper proposed a riskassessment system for pipelines using this laying method. In the risk assessment, pipelines laid inone ditch (PLOD) were regarded as a series system relative to the routing environment. Therefore,the functional relationship between the total risk of the pipeline system and the risk of eachpipeline was obtained by combining the engineering system reliability theory with themathematical induction method. In addition, fuzzy set theory combined with fault tree analysiswas used to calculate the failure probability of each pipeline in the system. Event tree analysis wasused to sort out all the possible consequences of pipeline failure, and then the consequences wereunified into monetary units to evaluate the severity of failure consequences. Finally, the two partswere merged into a bow-tie diagram to realize the risk management and control of the pipeline.Meanwhile, risk acceptance criteria were formulated to analyze risks and to guide pipelinemaintenance. This system provides a complete risk assessment system for the pipeline system laidin one ditch, including the methods of risk identification, risk assessment, and risk analysis, whichare of great significance to ensure the safety of the pipeline and the surrounding environment usingthis laying method.

scholarly journals IT RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
Oskars Podziņš ◽  
Andrejs Romānovs
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
The Other ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Other Hand

There are numerous methods for risk identification and risk assessment phases. Which for risk identification includes historical and systematic approach and inductive or theoretical analysis. One of the main reasons why risk identification is very helpful is that it provides justification in many cases for any large IT investment and other large undertakings. Without it organization probably wouldn’t be able to come to conclusion. Also in this phase business recognize the threats, vulnerabilities, and assets associated with its IT systems. Together with risk assessment phase risk management specialist is responsible for determining asset value, what's the value of the asset business is protecting, and risk acceptance level. Risk assessment on the other hand examines impact or consequence, as well as examines and evaluates the likelihood or probability of that adverse event happening. Risk assessment includes methods like Bayesian analysis, Bow Tie Analysis, brainstorming or structured interviews, business impact analysis, cause and consequence, cause-and-effect analysis, Delphi method, event tree analysis, fault tree analysis, hazard analysis, hazard and operational studies, and finally structured what if technique or SWIFT process. Risk assessment has two distinctive assessment types- quantitative and qualitative assessment. Quantitative assessment tries to put a monetary value on all risks. Qualitative assessment on the other hand rather look at it from a range of values like low, medium, high. The results of these phases are going to be documented in the risk assessment report and reported to senior management.

Risk mitigation in unstabilized approach with fuzzy Bayesian bow-tie analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (10) ◽  
pp. 1513-1521
Author(s):  
Caner Acarbay ◽  
Emre Kiyak
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bow Tie

Purpose Stable approach concept has great importance for the safe operation of an airline during the approach and landing phases. The purpose of this study is to analyse the unstabilized approaches with bow-tie method and determine the threats that may cause risk in an unstable approach. Design/methodology/approach In this study, risk assessment of the unstabilized approaches is carried out by using fuzzy bow-tie method and Bayesian networks. Bow-tie method is the combination of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Bayesian network is used in the analysis to see interrelationship of basic and intermediate events as well as to update posterior probabilities. Finally, analysis results are verified by the safety performance indicator values. Findings In this study, the probabilistic values of the numerical model presented by the risk assessment system for risks were calculated using the fuzzy bow-tie method. Thus, the risk assessment system has been transformed into a structure that can be expressed in a probabilistic manner, and the relationship of the risks within the system has been examined and the effect of a possible change on the risk value has been found to be prevalent. Originality/value The bow-tie model is widely applied to assess the risks in aviation. Obtaining prior probabilities is not always possible in the risk assessment process. In this paper, innovative fuzzy bow-tie method is used to assess the risks to overcome the lack of prior probability problem in aviation operations.

scholarly journals Analyzing occupational risks of pharmaceutical industry under uncertainty using a Bow-Tie analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-124
Author(s):  
Sukran Seker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Pharmaceutical Industry ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Work Units ◽  
Bow Tie

Risk analysis is a systematic and widespread methodology to analyze and evaluate risks which are exposed in many working areas. One of the Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) methods for risk assessment is Bow-Tie analysis which combines features of fault-tree analysis and event-tree analysis to identify the top event; its causes and consequences (outcomes); and possible preventive and protective control measures or barriers. This study proposes an occupational risk assessment approach, which is known as Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis, for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. The aim is to evaluate critical risks and risky pharmaceutical work units and take safety precautions against accidents which caused by risky conditions. Thus, this methodology combines the concept of uncertainty which comes from different (Decision Maker) DM’s evaluations and the whole performance of the Bow-Tie analysis for hazard identification and risk assessment.  To apply and validate the proposed method, a case study is performed for pharmaceutical industry processes and work units. Based on the computed risk score, which is calculated by multiplying probability ranking and impact ranking of criterion, the risks are prioritized and some measures are suggested for management to prevent accidents occur in the industry.

scholarly journals Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems to develop of methodology for teaching students using the method event tree (event tree analysis)

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 63-73
Author(s):  
Tsvetelina Simeonova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Sample Sequence ◽  
Student Training ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Risk Analysis And Management ◽  
Tree Method

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for risk analysis, assessment and management using the event tree method. A sample sequence of risk analysis actions is shown with the use the event tree method in determining the probability of realizing a dangerous event including an exemplary event tree pattern according the example under consideration and with the possibility of calculations and for determining the risk at the accepted value of the damage. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed based on the event tree applicable to student training on risk analysis and management.  

scholarly journals Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems in the development of the methodology for the students training by transforming structures

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Tsvetelina Simeonova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Block Diagram ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
System Description ◽  
Technical Systems

The purpose of this article is to develop a methodology for risk analysis by transforming structures. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed by transforming structures based on existing links between the system description through a block diagram, a fault tree, and an event tree. Risk analysis of risk techniques by fault tree and event tree provides an unambiguous relationship between element parameters and parity of equivalent elements describing a system or a subsystem. An example of risk analysis by transforming structures is presented, according to the proposed methodology applicable to risk identification, including transformations between block diagram and fault tree and event tree, as well as variants to determine their risk (at accepted value of damages), according to acceptances made. A methodology has been developed and examples of risk analysis by transformation of structures are shown.

IRISK METHOD FOR SECURITY ESTIMATION OF THE SIMULATION POLYGON FOR THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFORMATION RESOURCES

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Korniyenko ◽  
Lilia Galata
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information System ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Information Resources ◽  
Security System ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Critical Information

In this article, the research of information system protection by ana­ ly­ zing the risks for identifying threats for information security is considered. Information risk analysis is periodically conducted to identify information security threats and test the information security system. Currently, various information risk analysis techni­ ques exist and are being used, the main difference being the quantitative or qualitative risk assessment scales. On the basis of the existing methods of testing and evaluation of the vulnerabilities for the automated system, their advantages and disadvantages, for the possibility of further comparison of the spent resources and the security of the information system, the conclusion was made regarding the deter­ mi­ nation of the optimal method of testing the information security system in the context of the simulated polygon for the protection of critical information resources. A simula­ tion ground for the protection of critical information resources based on GNS3 application software has been developed and implemented. Among the considered methods of testing and risk analysis of the automated system, the optimal iRisk methodology was identified for testing the information security system on the basis of the simulated. The quantitative method Risk for security estimation is considered. Generalized iRisk risk assessment is calculated taking into account the following parameters: Vulnerabili­ ty  — vulnerability assessment, Threat — threat assessment, Control — assessment of security measures. The methodology includes a common CVSS vul­ nerability assessment system, which allows you to use constantly relevant coefficients for the calculation of vulnerabilities, as well as have a list of all major vulnerabilities that are associated with all modern software products that can be used in the automated system. The known software and hardware vulnerabilities of the ground are considered and the resistance of the built network to specific threats by the iRisk method is calculated.

Challenges and Developments in Navigational Risk Assessment With Large Uncertainty

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinping Yan ◽  
Jinfen Zhang ◽  
Di Zhang ◽  
Carlos Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Rule Base ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
General Application ◽  
The Past ◽  
Formal Safety Assessment ◽  
Belief Rule Base

Concerns have been raised to navigational safety worldwide because of the increasing throughput and the passing ships during the past decades while maritime accidents such as collisions, groundings, overturns, oil-spills and fires have occurred, causing serious consequences. Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been acknowledged to be a framework widely used in maritime risk assessment. Under this framework, this paper discusses certain existing challenges when an effective safety assessment is carried out under a variety of uncertainties. Some theories and methodologies are proposed to overcome the present challenges, e.g., Fault/Event Tree Analysis (FTA/ETA), Evidential Reasoning (ER), Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and Belief Rule Base (BRB). Subsequently, three typical case studies that have been carried out in the Yangtze River are introduced to illustrate the general application of those approaches. These examples aim to demonstrate how advanced methodologies can facilitate navigational risk assessment under high uncertainties.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of climate change impacts and the post-mining land reclamation on the example of the “Brzeziny” Natural Aggregate Mine

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Pawełczyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mining Area ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Optimal Method

Abstract Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects manifested in increasingly extreme meteorological phenomena are one of the most important contemporary global challenges. In the face of new hazards, numerous measures are taken to adapt environmental components and ventures to climate change, such as the reclamation of degraded areas – recognized as a key adaptation and mitigation action. The success and the property of selecting these measures, including reclamation, requires a detailed recognition of the risk of occurrence of various hazards and of the severity of their consequences in a given area. The study assessed the risk of the climate change impacts on the post-mining area and based on its results an optimal method of reclamation of the “Brzeziny” gravel pit was proposed, aimed at the maximum adaptation of the area to the occurrence of potential climate events. The risk analysis was based on elements of the common risk assessment methodology (CRAM) and enriched with elements of the analytic hierarchy process method (AHP). Moreover, the event tree analysis (ETA) logic technique was used to assess the proposed adaptation measures at the reclamation stage.

scholarly journals A Quantitative Assessment of Comprehensive Ecological Risk for a Loess Erosion Gully: A Case Study of Dujiashi Gully, Northern Shaanxi Province, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Di Liu ◽  
Xiaoying Liang ◽  
Hai Chen ◽  
Hang Zhang ◽  
Nanzhao Mao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Dominant Factor

As a tool that can effectively support ecosystem management, ecological risk assessment is closely related to the sustainable development of ecosystems and human well-being and has become an active area of research in ecology, geography and other disciplines. Taking Dujiashi Gully for the study of gully loess erosion, a comprehensive risk assessment system for identifying risk probability, sensitivity and impairment was established. The spatial distribution of comprehensive ecological risk was analyzed, the ecological risk management categories were simultaneously delineated based on the risk dominant factor and the risk management strategies were formulated in loess regions. The results were as follows: (1) the spatial differences in comprehensive ecological risk were significantly different in the research area. The regions with extremely high and high risk were mainly located in gully areas and secondary erosion gullies, which are in 28.02% of study area. The extremely low-risk areas covered 1/3 of the study area and were mainly distributed to the northwest and south of the study area, where hills are widely spaced. (2) The combined analysis of ecological risk and terrain found that the elevation decreased first and then rose but the comprehensive ecological risk increased first and then decreased from north to south. Comprehensive ecological risk and terrain generally showed an inverse relationship. (3) The study area was divided into four types of risk management categories. Risk monitoring zones, habitat recovery zones, monitoring and recovery zones and natural regulation zones encompass 14.84%, 12.44%, 26.47% and 46.25% of the study area, respectively. According to four types of risk management categories, different risk reduction measures were designed to improve regional sustainable development capacity. Risk identification and risk management categories based on comprehensive ecological risk model can design a sustainable development path for social ecosystem and local farmers and provide a method for sustainable development for similar gully landscapes.

scholarly journals An integrated safety implementation analysis based on risk assessment to enhance the safety engineering practice in the gas fields of Sylhet region, Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-206
Author(s):  
Md Enamul Haque ◽  
M Farhad Howladar ◽  
Md Numan Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Safety Engineering ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Integrated Risk Assessment ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Gas Fields

The industrial sectors of Bangladesh mostly depend on the petroleum industry. Historically, risk and hazards are the common scenario in the petroleum industry occurring due to lack of efficient risk assessment, resulting in financial loss, injury, or harm for people, and the environment. To prevent these losses, it is essential to implement the best risk assessment plan.The objective of this research is toenhance the implementation of safety engineering systems in the petroleum industry through risk assessment. For this, purpose at first, the questionnaire survey for the perception of risk identification and safety system is performed to determine the current defects in the safety engineering system. Then, using SPSS software the risk analysis as well as ANOVA and reliability analysis of the collected data is accomplished to examine top risk factors. Concerning both interview and questionnaire analysis, an integrated risk assessment-based safety analysishas beenperformed to optimize the performance of the safety engineering system.The outcomes of this research expose the technical, procedural, and behavioral gap in the current risk assessment for the safe implementation of the safety engineering system of the petroleum industry of Bangladesh.

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