scholarly journals Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5344
Author(s):  
Andrea Menapace ◽  
Simone Santopietro ◽  
Rudy Gargano ◽  
Maurizio Righetti
Keyword(s):  
Heat Load ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Flexible Tool ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Demand Variation

Modelling heat load is a crucial challenge for the proper management of heat production and distribution. Several studies have tackled this issue at building and urban levels, however, the current scale of interest is shifting to the district level due to the new paradigm of the smart system. This study presents a stochastic procedure to model district heat load with a different number of buildings aggregation. The proposed method is based on a superimposition approach by analysing the seasonal component using a linear regression model on the outdoor temperature and the intra-daily component through a bi-parametric distribution of different times of the day. Moreover, an empirical relationship, that estimates the demand variation given the average demand together with a user aggregation coefficient, is proposed. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, the study of a group of residential users connected to the district heating system of Bozen-Bolzano is carried out. In addition, an application on a three-day prevision shows the suitability of this approach. The final purpose is to provide a flexible tool for district heat load characterisation and prevision based on a sample of time series data and summary information about the buildings belonging to the analysed district.

scholarly journals Data-Driven Machine-Learning Model in District Heating System for Heat Load Prediction: A Comparison Study

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fisnik Dalipi ◽  
Sule Yildirim Yayilgan ◽  
Alemayehu Gebremedhin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heat Load ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
District Heating System

We present our data-driven supervised machine-learning (ML) model to predict heat load for buildings in a district heating system (DHS). Even though ML has been used as an approach to heat load prediction in literature, it is hard to select an approach that will qualify as a solution for our case as existing solutions are quite problem specific. For that reason, we compared and evaluated three ML algorithms within a framework on operational data from a DH system in order to generate the required prediction model. The algorithms examined are Support Vector Regression (SVR), Partial Least Square (PLS), and random forest (RF). We use the data collected from buildings at several locations for a period of 29 weeks. Concerning the accuracy of predicting the heat load, we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms using mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and correlation coefficient. In order to determine which algorithm had the best accuracy, we conducted performance comparison among these ML algorithms. The comparison of the algorithms indicates that, for DH heat load prediction, SVR method presented in this paper is the most efficient one out of the three also compared to other methods found in the literature.

Applied machine learning: Forecasting heat load in district heating system

2016 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 478-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Idowu ◽  
Saguna Saguna ◽  
Christer Åhlund ◽  
Olov Schelén
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Heat Load ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Applied Machine Learning

A Forecasting Method of District Heat Load Based on Improved Wavelet Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongbin Zhang ◽  
Ye Liu ◽  
Lihua Cao ◽  
Heyong Si
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Conservation ◽  
Heat Load ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Load Prediction ◽  
Urban District ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Forecasting Method

Abstract Energy conservation of urban district heating system is an important part of social energy conservation. In response to the situation that the setting of heat load in the system is unreasonable, the heat load forecasting method is adopted to optimize the allocation of resources. At present, the artificial neural networks (ANNs) are generally used to forecast district heat load. In order to solve the problem that networks convergence is slow or even not converged due to the random initial parameters in traditional wavelet neural networks (WNNs), the genetic algorithm with fast convergence ability is used to optimize the network structure and initial parameters of heat load prediction models. The results show that when the improved WNN is applied to forecast district heat load, the prediction error is as low as 2.93%, and the accuracy of prediction results is improved significantly. At the same time, the stability and generalization ability of the prediction model are improved.

scholarly journals Heat Load Numerical Prediction for District Heating System Operational Control

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 121-136
Author(s):  
D. Rusovs ◽  
L. Jakovleva ◽  
V. Zentins ◽  
K. Baltputnis
Keyword(s):  
Ambient Temperature ◽  
Heat Load ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Data Set ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Heating Systems

Abstract To develop an advanced control of thermal energy supply for domestic heating, a number of new challenges need to be solved, such as the emerging need to plan operation in accordance with an energy market-based environment. However, to move towards this goal, it is necessary to develop forecasting tools for short- and long-term planning, taking into account data about the operation of existing heating systems. The paper considers the real operational parameters of five different heating networks in Latvia over a period of five years. The application of regression analysis for heating load dependency on ambient temperature results in the formulation of normalized slope for the regression curves of the studied systems. The value of this parameter, the normalized slope, allows describing the performance of particular heating systems. Moreover, a heat load forecasting approach is presented by an application of multiple regression methods. This short-term (day-ahead) forecasting tool is tested on data from a relatively small district heating system with an average load of 20 MW at ambient temperature of 0 °C. The deviations of the actual heat load demand from the one forecasted with various training data set sizes and polynomial orders are evaluated for two testing periods in January of 2018. Forecast accuracy is assessed by two parameters – mean absolute percentage error and normalized mean bias error.

scholarly journals Technology Pathways and Economic Analysis for Transforming High Temperature to Low Temperature District Heating Systems

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3218
Author(s):  
Pedro Durán ◽  
Herena Torio ◽  
Patrik Schönfeldt ◽  
Peter Klement ◽  
Benedikt Hanke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
High Temperature ◽  
Low Temperature ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
District Heating ◽  
Heating System ◽  
District Heating System ◽  
Heating Systems ◽  
District Heating Systems

There are 1454 district heating systems in Germany. Most of them are fossil based and with high temperature levels, which is neither efficient nor sustainable and needs to be changed for reaching the 2050 climate goals. In this paper, we present a case study for transforming a high to low temperature district heating system which is more suitable for renewable energy supply. With the Carnot Toolbox, a dynamic model of a potential district heating system is simulated and then transformed to a low temperature supply. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to see the system performance in case space constrains restrict the transformation. Finally, an economic comparison is performed. Results show that it is technically possible to perform the transformation until a very low temperature system. The use of decentralized renewable sources, decentralized heat storage tanks and the placement of a heat pump on each building are the key points to achieve the transformation. Regarding the sensitivity analysis, the transformation is worth doing until the seasonal storage and solar collector field sizes are reduced to 60% and 80% of their values in the reference case, respectively. The economic analysis shows, however, that it is hard for highly efficient low temperature renewable based heat networks to compete with district heating systems based on a centralized fossile CHP solution. Thus, though the presented transformation is technically possible, there is a strong need to change existing economic schemes and policies for fostering a stronger promotion of renewable energy policies in the heat sector.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document