Anthropogenic Drivers of Mangrove Loss and Associated Carbon Emissions in South Sumatra, Indonesia

The Air Telang Protected Forest (ATPF) is one of the most dynamic and essential coastal forest landscapes in South Sumatra, Indonesia, because of its location between multiple river outlets, including the Musi catchment—Sumatra’s largest and most dense lowland catchment area. While most ATPF areas are covered by mangroves, these areas have been experiencing severe anthropogenic-driven degradation and conversion. This study aims to evaluate land cover changes and associated carbon emissions in the ATPF over a 35-year period (1985–2020) by utilizing the available Landsat and Sentinel imagery from 1985, 2000, and 2020. Throughout the analysis period, we observed 63% (from 10,886 to 4059 ha) primary and secondary forest loss due to land use change. We identified three primary anthropogenic activities driving these losses, namely, land clearing for plantations and agriculture (3693 ha), coconut plantations (3315 ha), aquaculture (245 ha). We estimated that the largest carbon emissions were caused by coconut plantation conversion, with total carbon emissions of approximately 14.14 Mt CO2-eq. These amounts were almost 4 and 21 times higher than emissions from land clearing and aquaculture, respectively, as substantial soil carbon loss occurs once mangroves get transformed into coconut plantations. While coconut plantation expansion on mangroves could generate significant carbon stock losses and cleared forests become the primary candidate for restoration, our dataset could be useful for future land-based emission reduction policy intervention at a subnational level. Ultimately, our findings have direct implications for current national climate policies, through low carbon development strategies and emission reductions from the land use sector for 2030, as outlined in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).