scholarly journals A Choice-Modeling Approach to Inform Policies Aimed at Reducing Wildfire Hazard through the Promotion of Fuel Management by Forest Owners

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 403 ◽  
Author(s):  
José L. Santos ◽  
Ana Martins ◽  
Ana Novais ◽  
Maria João Canadas
Keyword(s):  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Choice Modeling ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Forest Owners ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Good Nature ◽  
Context Specific

The public-good nature of benefits of fuel management explains its current undersupply and the consequent wildfire blow. Policies to promote fuel management are thus required. To be cost-effective, they need to be informed by context-specific estimates of forest owners’ willingness-to-accept (WTA) for managing fuel. This study develops a choice-modeling approach to this problem. A survey of forest owners was undertaken in a wildfire-prone parish in Portugal. Respondents were asked about their willingness to subscribe different management contracts. A choice model was estimated and used to predict owners’ WTA for different fuel management commitments, and the marginal cost of reducing burned area in the parish. Estimated WTA amounts depend on owner type and commitment. Active owners demanded lower amounts for adopting silvicultural intervention commitments, and higher for those implying income foregone. The marginal cost of reducing burned area through fuel management increases with area, but it currently is yet smaller than the corresponding marginal benefit. Our results suggest that zero burned area is not an option and optimum fuel management lies beyond the current level. It will be shifted even beyond by targeted (key-spot) fuel management approaches; WTA differences across owners can be used to design context-specific policies that are more cost-effective.

Air Passengers’ Preferences for Aviation Voluntary Carbon Offsetting: A Co-benefits Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 004728752110303
Author(s):  
Beile Zhang ◽  
Brent W. Ritchie ◽  
Judith Mair ◽  
Sally Driml
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Choice ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Choice Modeling ◽  
Positive Outcomes ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Discrete Choice Modeling ◽  
Educational Benefits ◽  
Carbon Offsetting ◽  
Simple Reduction

Co-benefits are positive outcomes from voluntary carbon offsetting (VCO) programs beyond simple reduction in carbon emissions, which include biodiversity, air quality, economic, health, and educational benefits. Given the rates of aviation VCOs remain at less than 10%, this study investigated air passengers’ preferences for co-benefits as well as certification, location, and cost of VCO programs. Using discrete choice modeling, this study shows that aviation VCO programs with higher levels of co-benefits, particularly biodiversity and health benefits, are preferred by air passengers and confirms a preference for domestically based and certified VCO programs. The latent class choice model identified three classes with different preferences for VCO program attributes and demographic characteristics. The results of this study contribute to the knowledge of VCO co-benefits and imply that airlines should take note of this preference for biodiversity and health co-benefits when designing VCO programs and differentiate between market segments to increase the uptake of VCOs.

Optimising Foundation Skirt Geometries for Reliable Foundation Capacity and Installation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. F. Bransby ◽  
D. O’Driscoll ◽  
H. Zhu ◽  
M. F. Randolph ◽  
T. Drummen
Keyword(s):  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Efficient Solution ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The Self ◽  
Significant Cost ◽  
Design Life ◽  
Parametric Studies ◽  
Foundation Type ◽  
Fabrication Costs ◽  
Installation Time

Increasing numbers of subsea structures related to wells and pipelines are being placed on the seabed as part of typical subsea or tie-back developments. Given the proliferation of these structures and the marginal cost of offshore developments, controlling installation and fabrication costs for subsea structures can be key to project viability. Skirted mudmats are often the most cost-effective foundation type, and particular additional design focuses on optimising their cost by minimising foundation weight and installation time. Subsea foundations must be designed to withstand all applied loads during their design life (e.g. during set-down, tie-in, hydrotest, operation etc.) with suitable reliability. Using skirts, peripheral or internal, to improve the sliding resistance is an efficient solution provided the self-weight of the subsea structure on set-down is sufficiently large to ensure installation of the skirts (even for the strongest likely seabed conditions), but can lead to significant cost increases if additional ballast is required to ensure this. The paper examines how foundation skirt geometries can be optimised in order to provide sufficient foundation in-place capacity whilst minimising the amount of self-weight required for their installation. Parametric studies are presented that show how the sliding capacity of individual skirts is affected by the weight of the structure, and also the spacing and position within the foundation plan.

A Strategic Model to Promote University of Choice Decisions Among the International Students

2022 ◽  
pp. 260-284
Author(s):  
Andre P. Calitz ◽  
Margaret D. Cullen ◽  
Carlien Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
International Students ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Recruitment Strategy ◽  
Digital Marketing ◽  
University Marketing ◽  
Strategic Model ◽  
University Reputation ◽  
Internationalisation Of Higher Education

The internationalisation of higher education has become increasingly important for many higher education institutions (HEIs) globally. To recruit national and international students, HEIs must invest in effective digital marketing and recruitment strategies. This study investigated the development of a strategic university of choice model that can assist universities in the recruitment of international students. A survey was completed by 306 international students studying at a South African university. The factors identified in this study included academic programme and quality, visa requirements, country/city attractiveness, lectures in English, costs, student life, safety and security, university location, university reputation, and assistance from the international office. The strategic university of choice model could assist university marketing personnel to develop a focused, targeted, and cost-effective digital marketing and recruitment strategy to recruit international students.

scholarly journals Remote Sensing of Wildfire Using a Small Unmanned Aerial System: Post-Fire Mapping, Vegetation Recovery and Damage Analysis in Grand Bay, Mississippi/Alabama, USA

Drones ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sathishkumar Samiappan ◽  
Lee Hathcock ◽  
Gray Turnage ◽  
Cary McCraine ◽  
Jonathan Pitchford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Turnaround Time ◽  
Coastal Marsh ◽  
Vegetation Recovery ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Unmanned Aerial System

Wildfires can be beneficial for native vegetation. However, wildfires can impact property values, human safety, and ecosystem function. Resource managers require safe, easy to use, timely, and cost-effective methods for quantifying wildfire damage and regeneration. In this work, we demonstrate an approach using an unmanned aerial system (UAS) equipped with a MicaSense RedEdge multispectral sensor to classify and estimate wildfire damage in a coastal marsh. We collected approximately 7.2 km2 of five-band multispectral imagery after a wildfire event in February 2016, which was used to create a photogrammetry-based digital surface model (DSM) and orthomosaic for object-based classification analysis. Airborne light detection and ranging data were used to validate the accuracy of the DSM. Four-band airborne imagery from pre- and post-fire were used to estimate pre-fire health, post-fire damage, and track the vegetation recovery process. Immediate and long-term post-fire classifications, area, and volume of burned regions were produced to track the revegetation progress. The UAS-based classification produced from normalized difference vegetation index and DSM was compared to the Landsat-based Burned Area Reflectance Classification. Experimental results show the potential of using UAS and the presented approach compared to satellite-based mapping in terms of classification accuracies, turnaround time, and spatial and temporal resolutions.

Do motorcycle-based ride-hailing apps threaten bus ridership? A hybrid choice modeling approach with latent variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zudhy Irawan ◽  
Prawira Fajarindra Belgiawan ◽  
Tri Basuki Joewono ◽  
Nurvita I. M. Simanjuntak
Keyword(s):  
Latent Variables ◽  
Choice Modeling ◽  
Modeling Approach

The Multinomial, Multiattribute Logit Choice Model

1979 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis H. Gensch ◽  
Wilfred W. Recker
Keyword(s):  
Choice Model ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Multinomial Logit ◽  
Choice Modeling ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Multiattribute Choice ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Sectional Analysis

The authors argue that for the cross-sectional multiattribute approach to choice modeling, the multinomial logit is theoretically and empirically superior to the more commonly used regression approach. Other choice methodologies also are discussed briefly in relation to logit. The difference between individual level (where regression is appropriate) and cross-sectional analysis is recognized. Most marketing managers, because of their research goals, will be using a cross-sectional approach. The derivation of the logit from an underlying behavioral model of choice is illustrated. It is this underlying behavioral model of choice that provides logit with several conceptual advantages for modeling a multiattribute choice structure.

Designing and Implementing Real-Time Bus Time Predictions using Artificial Intelligence

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (11) ◽  
pp. 636-648
Author(s):  
Benny Wai ◽  
Winston Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Travel Time ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Flexible Production ◽  
Reference Architecture ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Transportation Service ◽  
Effective Manner

Managing expectations is vital to ensuring commuter satisfaction with their public transportation service. When customers are given an estimated time for their bus and must wait way longer, they lose a sense of control over their commute and become frustrated. In this paper, we present a novel machine learning (ML) modeling approach in which we train and implement specialized models for every single segment of travel time and stop dwell time in our system to capture its uniqueness. The features for training the models include simple calendar and weather data. Most papers assume ideal operational conditions but in practice that’s almost never the case. Here, we combine our ML modeling approach with a flexible production-tested algorithm to combine model-generated dwell and travel time (or run time) predictions to produce predicted bus departure times. This algorithm is designed to handle real transit agency challenges like missing models (including those caused by changes to schedules and routes), timing points, and partially traveled segments. We also provide a reference architecture of how this algorithm can be brought to life in a scalable and cost-effective manner.

Basic Concepts of Modeling Pesticide Fate in the Crop Root Zone

Weed Science ◽  
1985 ◽  
Vol 33 (S2) ◽  
pp. 25-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Wagenet ◽  
P.S.C. Rao
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Fate ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Efficacy Trials ◽  
Sorption Leaching ◽  
Crop Root

Modeling is increasingly being used as a tool for the evaluation of the environmental fate of pesticides. Sorption, leaching, degradation, and volatilization are some of the processes being integrated through the use of simulation modeling techniques. Several research programs are focusing their attention on such issues (16, 17, 18, 32, 35), with regulatory agencies involved in management of pesticides also taking a modeling approach (3, 7). Because of the extreme complexity of agroecosystems, it is obvious that the use of simulation models will continue to be the most expeditious, reliable, and cost-effective means of integrating the various processes acting upon a pesticide to determine its fate. For example, modeling will help to summarize and interpret efficacy trials and will provide the vehicle for transferring experimental results to unstudied situations, such as the potential environmental fate of an applied herbicide. However, proper development, testing, and responsible use of a modeling approach must be based upon a thorough, comprehensive understanding of interdependent and dynamic natural processes.

scholarly journals Marginal cost curves for water footprint reduction in irrigated agriculture: guiding a cost-effective reduction of crop water consumption to a permit or benchmark level

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 3507-3524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abebe D. Chukalla ◽  
Maarten S. Krol ◽  
Arjen Y. Hoekstra
Keyword(s):  
Deficit Irrigation ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Subsurface Drip Irrigation ◽  
Irrigation Strategy ◽  
Cost Curves ◽  
Subsurface Drip ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Marginal Cost Curves

Abstract. Reducing the water footprint (WF) of the process of growing irrigated crops is an indispensable element in water management, particularly in water-scarce areas. To achieve this, information on marginal cost curves (MCCs) that rank management packages according to their cost-effectiveness to reduce the WF need to support the decision making. MCCs enable the estimation of the cost associated with a certain WF reduction target, e.g. towards a given WF permit (expressed in m3  ha−1 per season) or to a certain WF benchmark (expressed in m3  t−1 of crop). This paper aims to develop MCCs for WF reduction for a range of selected cases. AquaCrop, a soil-water-balance and crop-growth model, is used to estimate the effect of different management packages on evapotranspiration and crop yield and thus the WF of crop production. A management package is defined as a specific combination of management practices: irrigation technique (furrow, sprinkler, drip or subsurface drip); irrigation strategy (full or deficit irrigation); and mulching practice (no, organic or synthetic mulching). The annual average cost for each management package is estimated as the annualized capital cost plus the annual costs of maintenance and operations (i.e. costs of water, energy and labour). Different cases are considered, including three crops (maize, tomato and potato); four types of environment (humid in UK, sub-humid in Italy, semi-arid in Spain and arid in Israel); three hydrologic years (wet, normal and dry years) and three soil types (loam, silty clay loam and sandy loam). For each crop, alternative WF reduction pathways were developed, after which the most cost-effective pathway was selected to develop the MCC for WF reduction. When aiming at WF reduction one can best improve the irrigation strategy first, next the mulching practice and finally the irrigation technique. Moving from a full to deficit irrigation strategy is found to be a no-regret measure: it reduces the WF by reducing water consumption at negligible yield reduction while reducing the cost for irrigation water and the associated costs for energy and labour. Next, moving from no to organic mulching has a high cost-effectiveness, reducing the WF significantly at low cost. Finally, changing from sprinkler or furrow to drip or subsurface drip irrigation reduces the WF, but at a significant cost.

scholarly journals Patent Buy-Outs for Global Disease Innovations for Low-and Middle-Income Countries

2006 ◽  
Vol 32 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 159-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Outterson
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Drug Price ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
World Health ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Generic Competition ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Cost Of Production

The World Health Organization’s CHOICE program analyzes the cost effectiveness of various health interventions related to the Millennium Development Goals. The program identifies the best strategies for improving health in low-income countries, using a standard set of methodological assumptions. These studies evaluate interventions in many areas, including child health and HIV/AIDS.For some of these treatments, drug costs are a significant variable: if the drug price doubles, the intervention becomes less cost effective. But if the drug price is reduced by 90%, then more therapies become affordable.Drug prices are uniquely susceptible to radical price reductions through generic competition. Patented pharmaceuticals may be priced at more than 30 times the marginal cost of production; the excess is the patent rent collected by the drug company while the patent and exclusive marketing periods remain. Patent rents are significant. AIDS drugs which sell for US$10,000 per person per year in the US are sold generically for less than US$200. If patented drugs could be sold at the marginal cost of production, cost effective treatments would become even more attractive, and other interventions would become affordable.

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