scholarly journals The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Antúnez ◽  
Mario Suárez-Mota ◽  
César Valenzuela-Encinas ◽  
Faustino Ruiz-Aquino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Change Impact

Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for assessment of impact of climatic change, impact of human activity and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martínez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. engelmanni (Carr), P. leiophylla (Schl), Quercus arizonica (Sarg), Q. magnolifolia (Née) and Q. sideroxila (Humb. & Bonpl.) in the future period. Thus, establishing conservation and reforestation strategies in the medium and long term could guarantee a wide distribution of these species in the future.

Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Chhetri ◽  
Hemant K. Badola ◽  
Sudip Barat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Azimuth Angle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present Distribution ◽  
Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

scholarly journals Predicting potential distribution of Thelypteris dentata and the changes based on climate change scenario.

2008 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro HORIKAWA ◽  
Kentaro MURAKAMI ◽  
Ikutaro TSUYAMA ◽  
Takashi OYABU ◽  
Tetsuya MATSUI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario

scholarly journals Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4511
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ping Wei ◽  
Yuan-Fong Su ◽  
Chao-Tzuen Cheng ◽  
Keh-Chia Yeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Meteorological Research Institute ◽  
The Future ◽  
Overtopping Probability ◽  
Southern Taiwan

With the growing concern about the failure risk of river embankments in a rapidly changing climate, this study aims to quantify the overtopping probability of river embankment in Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan. A water level simulation model is calibrated and validated with historical typhoon events and the calibrated model is further used to assess overtopping risk in the future under a climate change scenario. A dynamic downscaled projection dataset, provided by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has been further downscaled to 5-km grids and bias-corrected with a quantile mapping method, is used to simulate the water level of Kao-Ping River in the future. Our results highlighted that the overtopping risk of Kao-Ping River increased by a factor of 5.7~8.0 by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

GeoHealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 278-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara A. Muhling ◽  
John Jacobs ◽  
Charles A. Stock ◽  
Carlos F. Gaitan ◽  
Vincent S. Saba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Vibrio Species ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Emission

scholarly journals Modelling the potential distribution ofBemisia tabaciin Europe in light of the climate change scenario

2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (10) ◽  
pp. 1611-1623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianni Gilioli ◽  
Sara Pasquali ◽  
Simone Parisi ◽  
Stephan Winter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Change Scenario

scholarly journals Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bacer ◽  
Theodoros Christoudias ◽  
Andrea Pozzer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Pollutant Transport ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. We find that NAO trends will continue to interchange in the future considering variable length periods, while the overall trend (150 years) is weakly positive. To investigate the future NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at end of the century south-west Mediterranean and Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past. On the contrary, central Europe and a wider part of north Europe will benefit from increased pollutant depletion. Therefore, under a global climate change scenario local air quality conditions over Europe and North Africa, influenced by North Atlantic teleconnection activity, will become more extreme.

scholarly journals Potential distribution of Artemisia annua L.under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongjun Jiang ◽  
Ting Liu ◽  
Shiping Gao ◽  
Ruijun Wang ◽  
Ruchun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Artemisia Annua ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Ensemble Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Occurrence Records

Aim:Artemisia annua L. is the one and only original plant used to isolate artemisinin which is a highly effective remedy to fight malaria. Climate change leads to change of distribution and suitable range for many species and A. annua is no exception. However, it is not clear that the potential distribution and suitable range change of this unique plant under climate change. Therefore, we present this research to study its change in the future. Location: Global. Methods: Since the accuracy of species distribution models was affected by occurrence records and environmental variables, 1062 presence records and 7 variables were picked out to build ensemble models with 10 different algorithms by means of biomod2 under current and future climate scenarios. Results: At present, except SRE, the AUC values of the rest models were greater than 0.8, and the TSS values were greater than 0.6, the values of ensemble model were 0.968 and 0.826 respectively. Mean temperature of driest quarter was the dominant factor to shape the range of A. annua and its optimum interval ranged from 4.8 to 23.3ºC. The high suitable habitats of A. annua were mainly located in Eastern Asia, Western Europe, Central Europe. In the future, the high suitable area would decline at 15.55% to 25.87%. Main conclusions: Ensemble models showed it performed better than any the single one. At present, the high suitable habitat simulated by ensemble model was in accordance with the actual occurrence records. In the future, the high suitable habitat for A. annua would move northeast, and disappear in North America. They would increase with time under each SSP, but sharply decline while comparing with the current one. This study can be used to protect wild resource and guide cultivation for A. annua, which would make modest contribution to fight malaria.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document