scholarly journals Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4511
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ping Wei ◽  
Yuan-Fong Su ◽  
Chao-Tzuen Cheng ◽  
Keh-Chia Yeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Meteorological Research Institute ◽  
The Future ◽  
Overtopping Probability ◽  
Southern Taiwan

With the growing concern about the failure risk of river embankments in a rapidly changing climate, this study aims to quantify the overtopping probability of river embankment in Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan. A water level simulation model is calibrated and validated with historical typhoon events and the calibrated model is further used to assess overtopping risk in the future under a climate change scenario. A dynamic downscaled projection dataset, provided by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has been further downscaled to 5-km grids and bias-corrected with a quantile mapping method, is used to simulate the water level of Kao-Ping River in the future. Our results highlighted that the overtopping risk of Kao-Ping River increased by a factor of 5.7~8.0 by the end of the 21st century.

Predicting Climate-Driven Habitat Shifting of the near Threatened Satyr Tragopan (Tragopan Satyra; Galliformes) in the Himalayas

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Chhetri ◽  
Hemant K. Badola ◽  
Sudip Barat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Azimuth Angle ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present Distribution ◽  
Community Assemblages

Current rates of climatic change will affect the structure and function of community assemblages on Earth. In recent decades, advances in modelling techniques have illuminated the potential effects of various climatic scenarios on biodiversity hotspots, including community assemblages in the Himalayas. These techniques have been used to test the effects of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) AR5-2050, based on future greenhouse gas emission trajectories of climate change scenario/year combinations, on pheasants. Current bioclimatic variables, Miroc-esm, Hadgem2-AO and Gfdl-cm3, in future climate change scenario models, were used to predict the future distribution and the gain/loss of future habitat area, within the Himalayas, of the pheasant, Satyr Tragopon (Tragopan satyra). The results indicate that future climatic conditions may significantly affect the future distribution of Satyr Tragopon and the effectiveness of protective areas (PAs). Using the python based GIS toolkit, SDM projection, regions of high risk under climate change scenarios were identified. To predict the present distribution of the species, environment parameters of bioclimatic variables, red reflectance, blue reflectance, solar azimuth angle, altitude, slope, aspect, NDVI, EVI, VI, and LCLU were used. The forest cover (NDVI) and the canopy cover (EVI), and variables affecting forest structure, namely altitude, slope, solar azimuth angle and Bio7, were the primary factors dictating the present distribution of T. satyra. The predicted trend of habitat shifting of T. satyra in the Himalayas to higher altitudes and latitudes will gradually become more prominent with climate warming.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion and Sediment Yield in a Watershed

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2247
Author(s):  
Ching-Nuo Chen ◽  
Samkele S. Tfwala ◽  
Chih-Heng Tsai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Sediment Yields ◽  
Southern Taiwan ◽  
Total Sediment

This study analyzed the influence of climate change on sediment yield variation, sediment transport and erosion deposition distribution at the watershed scale. The study was based on Gaoping River basin, which is among the largest basins in southern Taiwan. To carry out this analysis, the Physiographic Soil Erosion Deposition (PSED) model was utilized. Model results showed a general increase in soil erosion and deposition volume under the A1B-S climate change scenario. The situation is even worsened with increasing return periods. Total erosion volume and total sediment yield in the watershed were increased by 4–25% and 8–65%, respectively, and deposition volumes increased by 2–23%. The study showed how climate change variability would influence the watershed through increased sediment yields, which might even worsen the impacts of natural disasters. It has further illustrated the importance of incorporating climate change into river management projects.

scholarly journals Projections of the future occurrence, distribution, and seasonality of three Vibrio species in the Chesapeake Bay under a high‐emission climate change scenario

GeoHealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 278-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara A. Muhling ◽  
John Jacobs ◽  
Charles A. Stock ◽  
Carlos F. Gaitan ◽  
Vincent S. Saba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Chesapeake Bay ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Vibrio Species ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Emission

scholarly journals Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bacer ◽  
Theodoros Christoudias ◽  
Andrea Pozzer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Pollutant Transport ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. We find that NAO trends will continue to interchange in the future considering variable length periods, while the overall trend (150 years) is weakly positive. To investigate the future NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at end of the century south-west Mediterranean and Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past. On the contrary, central Europe and a wider part of north Europe will benefit from increased pollutant depletion. Therefore, under a global climate change scenario local air quality conditions over Europe and North Africa, influenced by North Atlantic teleconnection activity, will become more extreme.

scholarly journals Improved Simulation of Peak Flows under Climate Change: Postprocessing or Composite Objective Calibration?

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 2187-2208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xujie Zhang ◽  
Martijn J. Booij ◽  
Yue-Ping Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
The Future ◽  
Daily Flows

Abstract Climate change is expected to have large impacts on peak flows. However, there may be bias in the simulation of peak flows by hydrological models. This study aims to improve the simulation of peak flows under climate change in Lanjiang catchment, east China, by comparing two approaches: postprocessing of peak flows and composite objective calibration. Two hydrological models [Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Journalier (GR4J)] are employed to simulate the daily flows, and the peaks-over-threshold method is used to extract peak flows from the simulated daily flows. Three postprocessing methods, namely, the quantile mapping method and two generalized linear models, are set up to correct the biases in the simulated raw peak flows. A composite objective calibration of the GR4J model by taking the peak flows into account in the calibration process is also carried out. The regional climate model Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) with boundary forcing from two GCMs (HadCM3 and ECHAM5) under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B is applied to produce the climate data for the baseline period and the future period 2011–40. The results show that the postprocessing methods, particularly quantile mapping method, can correct the biases in the raw peak flows effectively. The composite objective calibration also resulted in a good simulation performance of peak flows. The final estimated peak flows in the future period show an obvious increase compared with those in the baseline period, indicating there will probably be more frequent floods in Lanjiang catchment in the future.

Prediction of the Future Runoff of the Upper Hanjiang Basin under the Climate Change Conditions

2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 4194-4200
Author(s):  
Jing Guo ◽  
Kai Yu Cheng ◽  
Li Hua Xiong ◽  
Hua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Vic Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Monthly Water Balance ◽  
Two Parameter

Under the A2 climate change scenario, the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin are predicted by coupling the general circulation models (GCMs) and hydrological models. The future precipitation and temperature are obtained by downscaling CGCM2 and HadCM3 outputs using the Smooth Support Vector Machine (SSVM) method, and then they are used as input to the two parameter monthly water balance model and the distributed VIC model, respectively, to predict the future runoffs in the upper Hanjiang basin. The results of both hydrological models show that the future runoffs projected on the basis of CGCM2 outputs will decrease in 2020s (2011~2040), increase in 2080s (2071~2100), and show no significant change in 2050s (2041~2070), when compared to the average level of runoff during the baseline period of 1961~2000. For the A2 climate change scenario simulated by HadCM3 outputs, the future runoffs simulated by both hydrological models will increase in 2050s and 2080s. While for 2020s, decrease is predicted by the two parameter monthly water balance model, but no significant change is predicted by the distributed VIC model.

scholarly journals The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Antúnez ◽  
Mario Suárez-Mota ◽  
César Valenzuela-Encinas ◽  
Faustino Ruiz-Aquino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Wide Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Change Impact

Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for assessment of impact of climatic change, impact of human activity and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martínez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. engelmanni (Carr), P. leiophylla (Schl), Quercus arizonica (Sarg), Q. magnolifolia (Née) and Q. sideroxila (Humb. & Bonpl.) in the future period. Thus, establishing conservation and reforestation strategies in the medium and long term could guarantee a wide distribution of these species in the future.

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