scholarly journals Modelling of a Large Landslide Problem under Water Level Fluctuation—Model Calibration and Verification

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Chenyang Zhao ◽  
Raoul Hölter ◽  
Maria Datcheva ◽  
Arash Alimardani Lavasan
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Real Field ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Level Fluctuation ◽  
River Level ◽  
Huangtupo Landslide ◽  
Large Landslide ◽  
The Stability

In past centuries, reservoir landslides have been always a threat that brought a big loss in lives and properties. The phenomena that have decisive influence on the landslide instability are quite complex and the importance of each of them for the stability of a particular landslide differs. Therefore, it is extremely important to distinguish between the effects that different phenomena have and to identify those that dominate the behaviour of the studied landslide. The aim of the present study is to investigate the behaviour under the river level fluctuation of a large landslide in China, namely the Huangtupo landslide. A 2D numerical model of a selected part of the Huangtupo landslide is created and a series of fully coupled hydro-mechanical simulations have been conducted to investigate the landslide behaviour under different influencing factors (e.g., mechanical incidents, water head, soil water permeability, etc.). Furthermore, both local and global sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the importance of these influencing factors and to select the most influential model parameters. Thereafter, back analysis is employed to calibrate the model against real field data. Finally, the capability of the calibrated model is evaluated and the results show that it can simulate appropriately the long-term behaviour of the landslide after the river level reaches its maximal level.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the rumor-spreading model with hesitation mechanism in heterogenous networks and bilingual environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Yang ◽  
Haijun Jiang ◽  
Cheng Hu ◽  
Juan Yu ◽  
Jiarong Li
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Method ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rumor Spreading ◽  
Spreading Model ◽  
Reductio Ad Absurdum ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract In this paper, a novel rumor-spreading model is proposed under bilingual environment and heterogenous networks, which considers that exposures may be converted to spreaders or stiflers at a set rate. Firstly, the nonnegativity and boundedness of the solution for rumor-spreading model are proved by reductio ad absurdum. Secondly, both the basic reproduction number and the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium are systematically discussed. Whereafter, the global stability of rumor-prevailing equilibrium is explored by utilizing Lyapunov method and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Finally, the sensitivity analysis and the numerical simulation are respectively presented to analyze the impact of model parameters and illustrate the validity of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Optimal Investment and Proportional Reinsurance in a Regime-Switching Market Model under Forward Preferences

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (14) ◽  
pp. 1610
Author(s):  
Katia Colaneri ◽  
Alessandra Cretarola ◽  
Benedetta Salterini
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

In this paper, we study the optimal investment and reinsurance problem of an insurance company whose investment preferences are described via a forward dynamic exponential utility in a regime-switching market model. Financial and actuarial frameworks are dependent since stock prices and insurance claims vary according to a common factor given by a continuous time finite state Markov chain. We construct the value function and we prove that it is a forward dynamic utility. Then, we characterize the optimal investment strategy and the optimal proportional level of reinsurance. We also perform numerical experiments and provide sensitivity analyses with respect to some model parameters.

scholarly journals Tunnel Back Analysis Based on Differential Evolution Using Stress and Displacement

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Joon-Sang An ◽  
Kyung-Nam Kang ◽  
Ju-Young Choi ◽  
Won-Suh Sung ◽  
Vathna Suy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Differential Evolution ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Friction Angle ◽  
Internal Displacement ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Analysis Algorithm ◽  
Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Displacement Based ◽  
The Stability

The stability of tunnels has mainly been evaluated based on displacement. Because displacement due to the excavation process is significant, back analysis of the structure and ground can be performed easily. Recently, the length of a segment-lined tunnel driven by the mechanized tunneling method is increasing. Because the internal displacement of a segment-lined tunnel is trivial, it is difficult to analyze the stability of segment-lined tunnels using the conventional method. This paper proposes a back analysis method using stress and displacement information for a segment-lined tunnel. A differential evolution algorithm was adopted for tunnel back analysis. Back analysis based on the differential evolution algorithm using stress and displacement was established and performed using the finite difference code, FLAC3D, and built-in FISH language. Detailed flowcharts of back analysis based on DEA using both monitored displacement stresses were also suggested. As a preliminary study, the target variables of the back analysis adopted in this study were the elastic modulus, cohesion, and friction angle of the ground. The back analysis based on the monitored displacement is useful when the displacement is significant due to excavation. However, the conventional displacement-based back analysis is unsuitable for a segment-lined tunnel after construction because of its trivial internal displacement since the average error is greater than 32% and the evolutionary calculation is finalized due to the maximum iteration criteria. The average error obtained from the proposed back analysis algorithm using both stress and displacement ranged within approximately 6–8%. This also confirms that the proposed back analysis algorithm is suitable for a segment-lined tunnel.

Model and Stability of the Traffic Flow Consisting of Heterogeneous Drivers

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Da Yang ◽  
Liling Zhu ◽  
Yun Pu
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Heterogeneous Traffic ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Optimal Velocity ◽  
Stability Functions ◽  
Car Following Model ◽  
Traffic Wave ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Different Characteristics ◽  
Stationary Velocity

Although traffic flow has attracted a great amount of attention in past decades, few of the studies focused on heterogeneous traffic flow consisting of different types of drivers or vehicles. This paper attempts to investigate the model and stability analysis of the heterogeneous traffic flow, including drivers with different characteristics. The two critical characteristics of drivers, sensitivity and cautiousness, are taken into account, which produce four types of drivers: the sensitive and cautious driver (S-C), the sensitive and incautious driver (S-IC), the insensitive and cautious driver (IS-C), and the insensitive and incautious driver (IS-IC). The homogeneous optimal velocity car-following model is developed into a heterogeneous form to describe the heterogeneous traffic flow, including the four types of drivers. The stability criterion of the heterogeneous traffic flow is derived, which shows that the proportions of the four types of drivers and their stability functions only relating to model parameters are two critical factors to affect the stability. Numerical simulations are also conducted to verify the derived stability condition and further explore the influences of the driver characteristics on the heterogeneous traffic flow. The simulations reveal that the IS-IC drivers are always the most unstable drivers, the S-C drivers are always the most stable drivers, and the stability effects of the IS-C and the S-IC drivers depend on the stationary velocity. The simulations also indicate that a wider extent of the driver heterogeneity can attenuate the traffic wave.

Stability of a Rigid Body With an Oscillating Particle: An Application of MACSYMA

1985 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 686-692 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. A. Month ◽  
R. H. Rand
Keyword(s):  
Angular Velocity ◽  
Rigid Body ◽  
Classical Problem ◽  
Moment Of Inertia ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Stability Chart ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Transition Curves ◽  
Minimum Moment ◽  
Small Angular Velocity

This problem is a generalization of the classical problem of the stability of a spinning rigid body. We obtain the stability chart by using: (i) the computer algebra system MACSYMA in conjunction with a perturbation method, and (ii) numerical integration based on Floquet theory. We show that the form of the stability chart is different for each of the three cases in which the spin axis is the minimum, maximum, or middle principal moment of inertia axis. In particular, a rotation with arbitrarily small angular velocity about the maximum moment of inertia axis can be made unstable by appropriately choosing the model parameters. In contrast, a rotation about the minimum moment of inertia axis is always stable for a sufficiently small angular velocity. The MACSYMA program, which we used to obtain the transition curves, is included in the Appendix.

scholarly journals A Theoretical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of the Buruli Ulcer with Saturated Treatment

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Bonyah ◽  
Isaac Dontwi ◽  
Farai Nyabadza
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Buruli Ulcer ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Public ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
Medical Facilities ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Saturated Treatment

The management of the Buruli ulcer (BU) in Africa is often accompanied by limited resources, delays in treatment, and macilent capacity in medical facilities. These challenges limit the number of infected individuals that access medical facilities. While most of the mathematical models with treatment assume a treatment function proportional to the number of infected individuals, in settings with such limitations, this assumption may not be valid. To capture these challenges, a mathematical model of the Buruli ulcer with a saturated treatment function is developed and studied. The model is a coupled system of two submodels for the human population and the environment. We examine the stability of the submodels and carry out numerical simulations. The model analysis is carried out in terms of the reproduction number of the submodel of environmental dynamics. The dynamics of the human population submodel, are found to occur at the steady states of the submodel of environmental dynamics. Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the model parameters and it is observed that the BU epidemic is driven by the dynamics of the environment. The model suggests that more effort should be focused on environmental management. The paper is concluded by discussing the public implications of the results.

The Stability of Potassium Ferrate in Water

2014 ◽  
Vol 881-883 ◽  
pp. 215-218
Author(s):  
Kai Luo ◽  
Gang Cao ◽  
Ming Yu Li ◽  
Gang Ren
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Potassium Ferrate ◽  
The Stability

The influencing factors of the stability for the potassium ferrate (K2FeO4), including pH, alkalinity, O3, KI, KClO3, KCl, NaClO3and Na2SiO3, were studied in this work. The results showed that the K2FeO4stability in water is best at about pH=10. The higher the alkalinity is, the stronger of K2FeO4stability would be. The O3had no effect to improve the K2FeO4stability. The K2FeO4stability would be best in water with 15mmol/L NaClO3, 10mmol/L Na2SiO3and 9mol/L alkalinity. Under this condition, the K2FeO4content would be 83.28% after 24h.

scholarly journals Cost Effectiveness of a Home-Based Intervention That Helps Functionally Vulnerable Older Adults Age in Place at Home

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Jutkowitz ◽  
Laura N. Gitlin ◽  
Laura T. Pizzi ◽  
Edward Lee ◽  
Marie P. Dennis
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Functional Difficulties ◽  
Age In Place ◽  
Home Based ◽  
Occupational And Physical Therapy ◽  
Home Based Intervention

Evaluating cost effectiveness of interventions for aging in place is essential for adoption in service settings. We present the cost effectiveness of Advancing Better Living for Elders (ABLE), previously shown in a randomized trial to reduce functional difficulties and mortality in 319 community-dwelling elders. ABLE involved occupational and physical therapy sessions and home modifications to address client-identified functional difficulties, performance goals, and home safety. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as additional cost to bring about one additional year of life, was calculated. Two models were then developed to account for potential cost differences in implementing ABLE. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for variations in model parameters. By two years, there were 30 deaths (9: ABLE; 21: control). Additional costs for 1 additional year of life was $13,179 for Model 1 and $14,800 for Model 2. Investment in ABLE may be worthwhile depending on society's willingness to pay.

Abstract 3789: Nessun Dorma : Have the Risks of Rosiglitazone been Exaggerated?

Circulation ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 116 (suppl_16) ◽  
Author(s):  
George A Diamond ◽  
Sanjay Kaul
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Odds Ratios ◽  
True Effect Size ◽  
Index Study ◽  
The Stability

Background A highly publicized meta-analysis of 42 clinical trials comprising 27,844 diabetics ignited a firestorm of controversy by charging that treatment with rosiglitazone was associated with a “…worrisome…” 43% greater risk of myocardial infarction ( p =0.03) and a 64% greater risk of cardiovascular death ( p =0.06). Objective The investigators excluded 4 trials from the infarction analysis and 19 trials from the mortality analysis in which no events were observed. We sought to determine if these exclusions biased the results. Methods We compared the index study to a Bayesian meta-analysis of the entire 42 trials (using odds ratio as the measure of effect size) and to fixed-effects and random-effects analyses with and without a continuity correction that adjusts for values of zero. Results The odds ratios and confidence intervals for the analyses are summarized in the Table . Odds ratios for infarction ranged from 1.43 to 1.22 and for death from 1.64 to 1.13. Corrected models resulted in substantially smaller odds ratios and narrower confidence intervals than did uncorrected models. Although corrected risks remain elevated, none are statistically significant (*p<0.05). Conclusions Given the fragility of the effect sizes and confidence intervals, the charge that roziglitazone increases the risk of adverse events is not supported by these additional analyses. The exaggerated values observed in the index study are likely the result of excluding the zero-event trials from analysis. Continuity adjustments mitigate this error and provide more consistent and reliable assessments of true effect size. Transparent sensitivity analyses should therefore be performed over a realistic range of the operative assumptions to verify the stability of such assessments especially when outcome events are rare. Given the relatively wide confidence intervals, additional data will be required to adjudicate these inconclusive results.

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