scholarly journals A Theoretical Model for the Transmission Dynamics of the Buruli Ulcer with Saturated Treatment

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebenezer Bonyah ◽  
Isaac Dontwi ◽  
Farai Nyabadza
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Buruli Ulcer ◽  
Coupled System ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Public ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
Medical Facilities ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Saturated Treatment

The management of the Buruli ulcer (BU) in Africa is often accompanied by limited resources, delays in treatment, and macilent capacity in medical facilities. These challenges limit the number of infected individuals that access medical facilities. While most of the mathematical models with treatment assume a treatment function proportional to the number of infected individuals, in settings with such limitations, this assumption may not be valid. To capture these challenges, a mathematical model of the Buruli ulcer with a saturated treatment function is developed and studied. The model is a coupled system of two submodels for the human population and the environment. We examine the stability of the submodels and carry out numerical simulations. The model analysis is carried out in terms of the reproduction number of the submodel of environmental dynamics. The dynamics of the human population submodel, are found to occur at the steady states of the submodel of environmental dynamics. Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the model parameters and it is observed that the BU epidemic is driven by the dynamics of the environment. The model suggests that more effort should be focused on environmental management. The paper is concluded by discussing the public implications of the results.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model for Coinfection of Listeriosis and Anthrax Diseases

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaibu Osman ◽  
Oluwole Daniel Makinde
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Zoonotic Diseases ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Human Contact ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free

Listeriosis and Anthrax are fatal zoonotic diseases caused by Listeria monocytogene and Bacillus Anthracis, respectively. In this paper, we proposed and analysed a compartmental Listeriosis-Anthrax coinfection model describing the transmission dynamics of Listeriosis and Anthrax epidemic in human population using the stability theory of differential equations. Our model revealed that the disease-free equilibrium of the Anthrax model only is locally stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one. Sensitivity analysis was carried out on the model parameters in order to determine their impact on the disease dynamics. Numerical simulation of the coinfection model was carried out and the results are displayed graphically and discussed. We simulate the Listeriosis-Anthrax coinfection model by varying the human contact rate to see its effects on infected Anthrax population, infected Listeriosis population, and Listeriosis-Anthrax coinfected population.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the rumor-spreading model with hesitation mechanism in heterogenous networks and bilingual environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuai Yang ◽  
Haijun Jiang ◽  
Cheng Hu ◽  
Juan Yu ◽  
Jiarong Li
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Method ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Rumor Spreading ◽  
Spreading Model ◽  
Reductio Ad Absurdum ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract In this paper, a novel rumor-spreading model is proposed under bilingual environment and heterogenous networks, which considers that exposures may be converted to spreaders or stiflers at a set rate. Firstly, the nonnegativity and boundedness of the solution for rumor-spreading model are proved by reductio ad absurdum. Secondly, both the basic reproduction number and the stability of the rumor-free equilibrium are systematically discussed. Whereafter, the global stability of rumor-prevailing equilibrium is explored by utilizing Lyapunov method and LaSalle’s invariance principle. Finally, the sensitivity analysis and the numerical simulation are respectively presented to analyze the impact of model parameters and illustrate the validity of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Dysentery Diarrhea Epidemic Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailay Weldegiorgis Berhe ◽  
Oluwole Daniel Makinde ◽  
David Mwangi Theuri
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Nonlinear Least Squares ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Nonlinear Least Squares Problem ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Diarrhea Disease ◽  
Effective Transmission ◽  
Disease Free

In this paper, dysentery diarrhea deterministic compartmental model is proposed. The local and global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is obtained using the stability theory of differential equations. Numerical simulation of the system shows that the backward bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium exists for R0>1. The system is formulated as a standard nonlinear least squares problem to estimate the parameters. The estimated reproduction number, based on the dysentery diarrhea disease data for Ethiopia in 2017, is R0=1.1208. This suggests that elimination of the dysentery disease from Ethiopia is not practical. A graphical method is used to validate the model. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the importance of model parameters in the disease dynamics. It is found out that the reproduction number is the most sensitive to the effective transmission rate of dysentery diarrhea (βh). It is also demonstrated that control of the effective transmission rate is essential to stop the spreading of the disease.

scholarly journals Mathematical analysis of an age structured epidemic model with a quarantine class

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bedreddine AINSEBA ◽  
Tarik Touaoula ◽  
Zakia Sari
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Asymptotic Behavior Of Solutions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Qualitative Behavior ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, an age structured epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Quarantined-Recovered-Infected (SIQRI) model is proposed, where we will focus on the role of individuals that leave their class of quarantine before being completely recovered and thus will participate again to the transmission of the disease. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of solutions by studying the stability of both trivial and positive equilibria. In order to see the impact of the different model parameters like the relapse rate on the qualitative behavior of our system, we firstly, give the explicit expression of the epidemic reproduction number $R_{0}.$ This number is a combination of the classical epidemic reproduction number for the SIQR model and a new epidemic reproduction number corresponding to the individuals infected by a relapsed person from the R-class. It is shown that, if $R_{0}\leq 1$, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and becomes unstable for $R_{0}>1$. Secondly, while $R_{0}>1$, a suitable Lyapunov functional is constructed to prove that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable on some subset $\Omega_{0}.$

scholarly journals Analisis kestabilan dan kontrol optimal model matematika penyebaran penyakit Ebola dengan variabel kontrol berupa karantina

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-41
Author(s):  
Erzalina Ayu Satya Megananda ◽  
Cicik Alfiniyah ◽  
Miswanto Miswanto
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Two Equilibria

Ebola disease is an infectious disease caused by a virus from the genus Ebolavirus and the family Filoviridae. Ebola disease is one of the most deadly diseases for human. The purpose of the thesis is to analyze the stability of the equilibrium point and to apply the optimal control of quarantine on a mathematical model of the spread of ebola. Model without control has two equilibria, non-endemic equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The existence of endemic equilibrium and local stability depends on the basic reproduction number (R0). The non-endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable if R0 1 and endemic equilibrium tend to asymptotically stable if R0 1. The problem of optimal control is solved by Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle. From the numerical simulation, the result shows that control is effective enough to minimize the number of infected human population and to minimize the cost of its control.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of an Alcohol Drinking Model with the Influence of Alcohol Treatment Centers

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bouchaib Khajji ◽  
Abderrahim Labzai ◽  
Omar Balatif ◽  
Mostafa Rachik
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Drinking ◽  
Addiction Treatment ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Behavior ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Modeling And Analysis ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The Stability

In this paper, we present a continuous mathematical model PMHTrTpQ of alcohol drinking with the influence of private and public addiction treatment centers. We study the dynamical behavior of this model and we discuss the basic properties of the system and determine its basic reproduction number R0. We also study the sensitivity analysis of model parameters to know the parameters that have a high impact on the reproduction number R0. The stability analysis of the model shows that the system is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable at drinking-free equilibrium E0 when R0≤1. When R0>1, drinking present equilibrium E∗ exists and the system is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable at alcohol present equilibrium E∗.

scholarly journals Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence and Saturated Treatment Function

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinhong Zhang ◽  
Jianwen Jia ◽  
Xinyu Song
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Asymptotical Stability ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
Threshold Conditions ◽  
Saturated Incidence Rate ◽  
Saturated Incidence ◽  
Saturated Treatment

The dynamics of SEIR epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function are explored in this paper. The basic reproduction number that determines disease extinction and disease survival is given. The existing threshold conditions of all kinds of the equilibrium points are obtained. Sufficient conditions are established for the existence of backward bifurcation. The local asymptotical stability of equilibrium is verified by analyzing the eigenvalues and using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. We also discuss the global asymptotical stability of the endemic equilibrium by autonomous convergence theorem. The study indicates that we should improve the efficiency and enlarge the capacity of the treatment to control the spread of disease. Numerical simulations are presented to support and complement the theoretical findings.

scholarly journals Qualitative and Bifurcation Analysis of an SIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Treatment Function and Nonlinear Pulse Vaccination

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Xiangsen Liu ◽  
Binxiang Dai
Keyword(s):  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Pulse Vaccination ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
Existence And Stability ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Saturated Treatment ◽  
Disease Free

An SIR epidemic model with saturated treatment function and nonlinear pulse vaccination is studied. The existence and stability of the disease-free periodic solution are investigated. The sufficient conditions for the persistence of the disease are obtained. The existence of the transcritical and flip bifurcations is considered by means of the bifurcation theory. The stability of epidemic periodic solutions is discussed. Furthermore, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our results.

scholarly journals Set-Valued Control Approach Applied to a COVID-19 Model with Screening and Saturated Treatment Function

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Mohamed Elhia ◽  
Lahoucine Boujallal ◽  
Meryem Alkama ◽  
Omar Balatif ◽  
Mostafa Rachik
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Selection ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Viability Theory ◽  
Nonlinear Mathematical Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Saturated Treatment ◽  
Selection Of

The purpose of this paper is modelling and controlling the spread of COVID-19 disease in Morocco. A nonlinear mathematical model with two subclasses of infectious individuals is proposed. The population is divided into five classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), undiagnosed infectious ( I n c ), diagnosed patients ( I c ), and removed individuals. To reflect the real dynamic of the COVID-19 transmission in Morocco, the real reported data are used for estimating model parameters. Two controls representing screening effort and limited treatment are considered. Based on viability theory and set-valued analysis, a Lyapunov function is constructed such that both exposed and infected populations are decreased to zero asymptotically. The corresponding controls are derived via a continuous selection of adequately designed feedback map. Numerical simulations are presented with three scenarios (cases when each control is used alone and the case when two controls are combined). Our results show that when only one control is to be applied, screening is the most effective in decreasing the number of people in the three infected compartments, whereas combining both controls is found to be highly effective and leads to a significant improvement in the epidemiological situation of Morocco. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first one that applies the set-valued approach to a controlled COVID-19 model which agrees with the observed cases in Morocco.

Discrete-Time Fractional Order SIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Treatment Function

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud A. M. Abdelaziz ◽  
Ahmad Izani Ismail ◽  
Farah A. Abdullah ◽  
Mohd Hafiz Mohd
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Delayed Treatment ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Treatment Function ◽  
Saturated Treatment

AbstractIn this paper, a discrete-time fractional-order SIR epidemic model with saturated treatment function is investigated. The local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points is analyzed and the threshold condition basic reproduction number is derived. Backward bifurcation is shown when the model possesses a stable disease-free equilibrium point and a stable endemic point coexisting together when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. It is also shown that when the treatment is partially effective, a transcritical bifurcation occurs at $\Re_{0}=1$ and reappears again when the effect of delayed treatment is getting stronger at $\Re_{0}<1$. The analysis of backward and forward bifurcations associated with the transcritical, saddle-node, period-doubling and Neimark–Sacker bifurcations are discussed. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the complex dynamical behaviors of the model. By carrying out bifurcation analysis, it is shown that the delayed treatment parameter ε should be less than two critical values ε1 and ε2 so as to avoid $\Re_{0}$ belonging to the dangerous range $\left[ \Re_{0},1\right]$. The results of the numerical simulations support the theoretical analysis.

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