Development of Predictive Models for Water Budget Simulations of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo on the Island of Hispaniola

The historical water level fluctuations of the two neighboring Caribbean lakes of Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola have shown random periods of synchronous and asynchronous behaviors, with both lakes exhibiting independent dynamics despite being exposed to the same climatic forces and being directly next to each other. This paper examines their systems' main drivers and constraints, which are used to develop numerical models for these two lakes. The water balance approach was employed to conceptually model the lakes on an interannual scale and examine the assumptions of surface and subsurface processes. These assumptions were made based on field observations and prior studies. The developed models were optimized and calibrated for 1984 to 2017 and then validated for the period 1972 to 1984 based on the lakes’ observational volume change and volume time series. The models yielded “good” performance, with NSE averaged at 0.7 and RE averaged at 13% for volume change. The performance improved to “very good” for volume simulations, with NSE averaging higher than 0.9 and RE averaging at 1%. The uncertainty analysis showed a p-factor of 0.73 and an r-factor of 1.7 on average, supporting the reliability and precision of the results. Analyzing the time series of the lakes and quantifying the main elements of the water balance, each lake’s shrinkage and expansion phases were explored, and the drivers of such behavior were identified for each lake. The main drivers of LE’s system are North Atlantic cyclone activities and uncontrolled inter-basin water transfer, and direct rainfall and evaporation to/from its surface. For LA, its system is controlled mainly by groundwater fluxes in and out of it, despite possessing small values in its water budget.

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Locally and Remotely Forced Subtropical AMOC Variability: A Matter of Time Scales

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0844.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (12) ◽

pp. 5155-5172

Author(s):

Quentin Jamet ◽

William K. Dewar ◽

Nicolas Wienders ◽

Bruno Deremble ◽

Sally Close ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Scales ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Time Scale ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽

Open Boundary ◽

Overturning Circulation ◽

Decadal Scale ◽

Meridional Overturning

AbstractMechanisms driving the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability at low frequency are of central interest for accurate climate predictions. Although the subpolar gyre region has been identified as a preferred place for generating climate time-scale signals, their southward propagation remains under consideration, complicating the interpretation of the observed time series provided by the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array–Western Boundary Time Series (RAPID–MOCHA–WBTS) program. In this study, we aim at disentangling the respective contribution of the local atmospheric forcing from signals of remote origin for the subtropical low-frequency AMOC variability. We analyze for this a set of four ensembles of a regional (20°S–55°N), eddy-resolving (1/12°) North Atlantic oceanic configuration, where surface forcing and open boundary conditions are alternatively permuted from fully varying (realistic) to yearly repeating signals. Their analysis reveals the predominance of local, atmospherically forced signal at interannual time scales (2–10 years), whereas signals imposed by the boundaries are responsible for the decadal (10–30 years) part of the spectrum. Due to this marked time-scale separation, we show that, although the intergyre region exhibits peculiarities, most of the subtropical AMOC variability can be understood as a linear superposition of these two signals. Finally, we find that the decadal-scale, boundary-forced AMOC variability has both northern and southern origins, although the former dominates over the latter, including at the site of the RAPID array (26.5°N).

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WATER BALANCE AND WATER LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS OF LAKES

Hydrological Sciences Bulletin ◽

10.1080/02626667409493872 ◽

1974 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 73-84 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

K. SZESZTAY

Keyword(s):

Water Balance ◽

Water Level ◽

Water Level Fluctuations

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Water budget and subsurface runoff determination for small Alpine catchments using WaSIM

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13436 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Daniel Bergmeister ◽

Klaus Klebinder ◽

Bernhard Kohl ◽

Ulrich Burger ◽

Georg Orsi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Balance ◽

Water Budget ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Modular System ◽

Research Centre ◽

Main Study ◽

Direct Model ◽

Subsurface Runoff ◽

Alpine Catchments ◽

Brenner Base Tunnel

Assessing the water balance including subsurface runoff in high Alpine catchments is still a major challenge due to environmental and meteorological complexity, and mostly data-lacking hydrology. The aim of this study is the determination of the water balance components and water budget with focus on approximation of interflow, subsurface runoff and groundwater interactions, depending on sediment and bedrock properties.In this process we investigate a small, high data providing Alpine catchment in the Wipp Valley (Tyrol, AT) to evaluate the best modelling approach in order to apply it on catchments along the Austrian Brenner axis. Thus, a direct model comparison of the main study catchment, with its (moderate data providing) neighbouring valley is carried out. The main study catchment (Padaster Valley) covers 11.2 km2 and is located east of Steinach am Brenner in the Wipp Valley. Due to its partially usage as a deposital site, respectively a landfill for the tunnel excavation material of the Brenner Base Tunnel, this valley represents a highly interesting site in a hydrological aspect. Thus, the Padaster Valley is highly monitored and hence predestined for hydrological investigations. Hydrological data such as discharge is measured high frequently on four gauges, meteorological data on two gauges. An additional study catchment (Navis Valley) covers 63 km2 and is located northerly next the Padaster Valley. Seven gauges provide meteorological data, however, continuous discharge data is just measured at the valley mouth. Further meteorological data for both areas will be contributed by the ZAMG (Zentralanstalt f&#252;r Meteorologie und Geodynamik), whose INCA model provide a high spatial resolution dataset of 1km. However, in order to gain a better overall understanding of subsurface runoff and hydrogeological processes, geological data will be considered and incorporated/integrated in the modelling process. This includes geological maps, - cross sections and geophysical analysis, which help to estimate the bedrock topography, and consequently the volume as well as deeper seated hydrogeological properties of the sediment cover. In this context, continuous data from 7 groundwater observation wells provide information regarding groundwater levels and hydraulic head. To increase the model accuracy regarding subsurface flow processes, subsurface-depending runoff types after Pirkl & Sausgruber (2015) are applied. Furthermore, several maps such as land use, surface runoff coefficient and soil map including grain size distribution of the layers have been compiled by in-situ fieldwork for this study. In order to model the water budget, subsurface runoff and overall hydrological slope properties, the distributed hydrological Model WaSIM (Richards version; Schulla, 1997) is applied. The model is based on a modular system which uses physically-based algorithms.The present study is been carried out by the Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW) in collaboration with the Brenner Base Tunnel (BBT-SE).

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Meridional Tripole Mode of Winter Precipitation over the Arctic and Continental North Africa–Eurasia

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-21-0212.1 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Xiaolin Liu ◽

Jianhua Lu ◽

Yimin Liu ◽

Guoxiong Wu

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

North Africa ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Hadley Cell ◽

The Arctic ◽

Positive Phase ◽

The North ◽

Ferrel Cell ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

Westerly Jets

AbstractWintertime precipitation is vital to the growth of glaciers in the northern hemisphere. We find a tripole mode of precipitation (PTM), with each pole of the mode extending zonally over the eastern hemisphere roughly between 30°W and 120°E, and the positive/negative/positive structure for its positive phase extending meridionally from the Arctic to the continental North Africa–Eurasia. The large-scale dynamics associated with the PTM is explored. The positive phase of the PTM is associated with the negative while eastward-shifted phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a zonal band of positive SST anomaly in the tropics, together with a narrowed Hadley cell and weakened Ferrel cell. While being north-eastward tilted and separated from their North Africa-Eurasia counterpart in the climatological mean, the upper-tropospheric westerly jets over the east Pacific and north Atlantic become extending zonally and shifting southward and hence form a circumpolar subtropical jet as a whole by connecting with the westerly jets over the North Africa-Eurasia. The enhanced zonal winds over the north Atlantic promote more synoptic-scale transient eddies which are waveguided by the jet streams. The polar vortex weakens and cold air dips southward from the North Pole. Further diagnosis of the E-vectors suggests that transient eddies have a positive feedback on the weakening of Ferrel cell. Opposite features are associated with the negative phase of the PTM. The reconstructed time series using multiple linear regression on the NAO index and the tropical SST averaged over 20°S– 20°N, can explain 62.4% of the variance of the original the original precipitation time series.

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Estimating the water balance and uncertainty bounds in a highly groundwater-dependent and data-scarce areas: An example for the upper Citarum basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9943 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Steven Reinaldo Rusli ◽

Albrecht Weerts ◽

Victor Bense

Keyword(s):

Water Balance ◽

Water Storage ◽

Total Water ◽

Groundwater Abstraction ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Groundwater Storage ◽

Actual Evaporation ◽

Basin Scale ◽

Basin Water ◽

Storage Change

In this study, we estimate the water balance components of a highly groundwater-dependent and hydrological data-scarce basin of the upper reaches of the Citarum river in West Java, Indonesia. Firstly, we estimate the groundwater abstraction volumes based on population size and a review of literature (0.57mm/day). Estimates of other components like rainfall, actual evaporation, discharge, and total water storage changes are derived from global datasets and are simulated using a distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model which yields additional estimates of discharge, actual evaporation, and total water storage change. We compare each basin water balance estimate as well as quantify the uncertainty of some of the components using the Extended Triple Collocation (ETC) method.The ETC application on four different rainfall estimates suggests a preference of using the CHIRPS product as the input to the water balance components estimates as it delivers the highest r2&#160; and the lowest RMSE compared to three other sources. From the different data sources and results of the distributed hydrological modeling using CHIRPS as rainfall forcing, we estimate a positive groundwater storage change between 0.12 mm/day - 0.60 mm/day. These results are in agreement with groundwater storage change estimates based upon GRACE gravimetric satellite data, averaged at 0.25 mm/day. The positive groundwater storage change suggests sufficient groundwater recharge occurs compensating for groundwater abstraction. This conclusion seems in agreement with the observation since 2005, although measured in different magnitudes. To validate and narrow the estimated ranges of the basin water storage changes, a devoted groundwater model is necessary to be developed. The result shall also aid in assessing the current and future basin-scale groundwater level changes to support operational water management and policy in the Upper Citarum basin.

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Remote sensing-based soil water balance for irrigation water accounting at the Spanish Iberian Peninsula

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-380-29-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 380 ◽

pp. 29-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Jesús Garrido-Rubio ◽

Alfonso Calera Belmonte ◽

Lorena Fraile Enguita ◽

Irene Arellano Alcázar ◽

Mario Belmonte Mancebo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Water Balance ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Soil Water ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Water Governance ◽

Soil Water Balance ◽

Water Requirements ◽

Water Accounting

Abstract. Temporal series maps of irrigated areas, and the corresponding irrigation water requirements based on remote sensing, is a recognized tool contributing to water governance at different scales, from water user associations to whole river basin districts. These thematic cartographies offer a first estimation of the crop irrigation requirements, and a biophysical based approach of the temporal and spatial distribution of the crop water use in the cultivated areas. This work describes the operational application of these methodologies, providing valuable information for water governance and management purposes. The basic products obtained in the whole Spanish part of the Iberian Peninsula during the period 2014–2017 were: (i) annual maps of irrigated crops based on time series of multispectral satellite imagery; and (ii) the direct remote sensing-based water accounting, by quantifying agricultural water flows (e.g. rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, drainage and recharge), through a remote sensing-based soil water balance. Hence this paper provides a remote sensing based water accounting approach, which relies on dense time series of multispectral imagery acquired by the multisensor constellation arranged by Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 satellites, jointly with meteorological data and agronomic knowledge. Then, based on these purpose and approach, annual and monthly maps of net irrigation water requirements have been elaborated at the most practical spatial and temporal scales for water governance purposes over big areas such river basin districts. This work summarizes the methodologies used and discuss the technical and non-technical feasibility of the proposed approach.

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SHORELINE AT JETTY DUE TO CYCLIC AND RANDOM WAVES

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v21.141 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 1 (21) ◽

pp. 141

Author(s):

Todd L. Walton ◽

Philip L.F. Liu ◽

Edward B. Hands

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Sediment Transport ◽

Numerical Model ◽

Analytical Solution ◽

Numerical Models ◽

Random Waves ◽

Dimensionless Form ◽

Wave Direction ◽

Continuous Cycling ◽

Small Wave

This paper examines the effects of random and deterministic cycling of wave direction on the updrift beach planform adjacent to a jetty. Results provided using a simplified numerical model cast in dimensionless form indicate the importance of the time series of wave direction in determining design jetty length for a given net sediment transport. Continuous cycling of • wave direction leads to the expected analytical solution. Simplications in the numerical model used restrict the applications to small wave angles, no diffraction, no reflection of waves off structure, no refraction, and no sand bypassing at jetty. The concept can be extended to more sophisticated numerical models.

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Regional differences in modelled net production and shallow remineralization in the North Atlantic subtropical Gyre

Biogeosciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/bgd-8-12477-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 12477-12519 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

B. Fernández-Castro ◽

L. Anderson ◽

E. Marañón ◽

S. Neuer ◽

B. Ausín ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Regional Differences ◽

Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽

Net Production ◽

Time Series Study ◽

The North ◽

European Station ◽

Lateral Advection ◽

Series Study

Abstract. We used 5-year concomitant data of tracers distribution from the BATS (Bermuda Time-series Study) and ESTOC (European Station for Time-Series in the Ocean, Canary Islands) sites to build a 1-D tracer model conservation including horizontal advection and compute net production and shallow remineralization rates at both sites. Net production rates computed below the mixed layer to 110 m from April to December for oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrate at BATS (1.34 ± 0.79 mol O2 m−2, −1.73 ± 0.52 mol C m−2 and −125 ± 36 mmol N m−2) showed no statistically significant differences compared to ESTOC (1.03 ± 0.62 mol O2 m−2, −1.42 ± 0.30 mol C m−2 and −213 ± 56 mmol N m−2). Shallow remineralization rates between 110 and 250 m computed at ESTOC (−3.9 ± 1.0 mol O2 m−2, 1.53 ± 0.43 mol C m−2 and 38 ± 155 mmol N m−2) were statistically higher for oxygen compared to BATS (−1.81 ± 0.37 mol O2 m−2, 1.52 ± 0.30 mol C m−2 and 147 ± 43 mmol N m−2). Lateral advection, which was more significant at ESTOC, was responsible for the differences in estimated oxygen remineralization rates between both stations. Due to the relevance of the horizontal transport at ESTOC, we cannot assert that the differences in shallow remineralization rates computed for both stations can explain the observed descrepancies in the flux of sinking organic matter.

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