Monsoon variability in recent years from synoptic scale disturbances and semi-permanent systems

In the recent decade from 1987 to 1996, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has shown less interannual variability in comparison with its earlier decade. Except 1987 and 1988, the area weighted average monsoon rainfall of all other years are within 10% (normal) of its long period average value over India. The paper discusses monsoon rainfall and several other associated circulations features with their variability in interannual scale during 1987-96. The results show that though the variability of monsoon rainfall is less during the decade, there is a significant interannual variation in the number of synoptic systems, their days, intensities and number of days of presence of monsoon trough and Tibetan anticyclone. The years with positive side (negative side) of normal seasonal rainfall are characterised by more (less) number of days of synoptic disturbances and more (less) number of days of presence of monsoon trough and Tibetan anticyclone in their favourable positions. However, overall activity of heat low, tropical easterly jet and sub-tropical westerly jet in the season have no direct relation with seasonal monsoon rainfall. In addition, the dates of onset and withdrawal of monsoon over India and the number of days monsoon took to over all India also have no relation with the monsoon rainfall.

Research On the Multiscale Characteristics of the Early Spring Temperature and Response To Climate Indices Over the Past 179 Years in the Qinling Mountains

Examination of the periodic differences in temperature in the Qinling Mountains at different time scales is highly important in research on the long-term evolution of the regional climate system and ecological environment. Based on February-April temperature data from 1835 to 2013 obtained at 27 weather stations in the Qinling Mountains reconstructed through tree rings, the multiscale characteristics of the early spring temperature time series on the southern and northern slopes of the Qinling Mountains and the response to climate signals were analyzed. The results indicate that the early spring temperature in the Qinling Mountains exhibits significant periodic characteristics on multiple time scales. Reconstruction at the different time scales reveals that the interannual scale change in the temperature variation on the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains plays a decisive role. The temperature on the northern slope exhibits a higher amplitude at the interannual and interdecadal scales than does that on the southern slope, and temporal differences occur at the quasi-century scale. The temperature achieves the strongest correlation with the original Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) sequence during the entire study period. In addition, the different time scales reveal that there exists a significant response relationship between the temperature at the interannual scale and the May sea temperature in the NINO3.4 area, which lags by one year. At the different time scales and various time ranges, the Qinling early spring temperature responds differently to the climate signals, which is an important factor leading to a lower correlation during the entire study period.

Development of Predictive Models for Water Budget Simulations of Closed-Basin Lakes: Case Studies of Lakes Azuei and Enriquillo on the Island of Hispaniola

The historical water level fluctuations of the two neighboring Caribbean lakes of Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola have shown random periods of synchronous and asynchronous behaviors, with both lakes exhibiting independent dynamics despite being exposed to the same climatic forces and being directly next to each other. This paper examines their systems' main drivers and constraints, which are used to develop numerical models for these two lakes. The water balance approach was employed to conceptually model the lakes on an interannual scale and examine the assumptions of surface and subsurface processes. These assumptions were made based on field observations and prior studies. The developed models were optimized and calibrated for 1984 to 2017 and then validated for the period 1972 to 1984 based on the lakes’ observational volume change and volume time series. The models yielded “good” performance, with NSE averaged at 0.7 and RE averaged at 13% for volume change. The performance improved to “very good” for volume simulations, with NSE averaging higher than 0.9 and RE averaging at 1%. The uncertainty analysis showed a p-factor of 0.73 and an r-factor of 1.7 on average, supporting the reliability and precision of the results. Analyzing the time series of the lakes and quantifying the main elements of the water balance, each lake’s shrinkage and expansion phases were explored, and the drivers of such behavior were identified for each lake. The main drivers of LE’s system are North Atlantic cyclone activities and uncontrolled inter-basin water transfer, and direct rainfall and evaporation to/from its surface. For LA, its system is controlled mainly by groundwater fluxes in and out of it, despite possessing small values in its water budget.

Effect of Ocean Fluid Changes on Pressure on the Seafloor: Ocean Assimilation Data Analysis on Warm-Core Rings off the Southeastern Coast of Hokkaido, Japan on an Interannual Timescale

The relationship between sea surface height (SSH) and seawater density anomalies, which affects the pressure on the seafloor (PSF) anomalies off the southeastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, was analyzed using the eddy-resolving spatial resolution ocean assimilation data of the JCOPE2M for the period 2001–2018. On an interannual (i.e., year-to-year) timescale, positive SSH anomalies of nearly 0.1 m appeared off the southeastern coast of Hokkaido, Japan, in 2007, associated with a warm-core ring (WCR), while stronger SSH anomalies (∼0.2 m) related to a stronger WCR occurred in 2016. The results show that the effects of such positive SSH anomalies on the PSF are almost canceled out by the effects of negative seawater density anomalies from the seafloor to the sea surface (SEP; steric effect on PSF) due to oceanic baroclinic structures related to the WCRs, especially in offshore regions with bottom depths greater than 1000 m. This means that oceanic isostasy is well established in deep offshore regions, compared with shallow coastal regions. To further verify the strength of the oceanic isostasy, oceanic isostasy anomalies (OIAs), which represent the barotropic component of SSH anomalies, are introduced and analyzed in this study. OIAs are defined as the sum of the SSH anomalies and SEP anomalies. Our results indicate that the effect of oceanic fluid changes due to SSH and seawater density anomalies (i.e., OIAs) on PSF changes cannot be neglected on an interannual timescale, although the amplitudes of the OIAs are nearly 10% of those of the SSH anomalies in the offshore regions. Therefore, to better estimate the interannual-scale PSF anomalies due to crustal deformation related to slow earthquakes including afterslips, long-term slow slip events, or plate convergence, the OIAs should be removed from the PSF anomalies.

Precipitation Variations in the Flood Seasons of 1910–2019 in Hunan and Its Association With the PDO, AMO, and ENSO

Floods in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River threaten thousands of million people, causing casualties and economic loss. Yet, the prediction of floods in this region is still challenging. To better understand the floods in this region, we investigate the interdecadal-interannual rainfall variation of the flood season (April–September) in Hunan province. The relationship between the rainfall and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also analyzed. The results show that the precipitation in the flood seasons shows an interdecadal oscillation with a period of about 20 years, which is caused by the joint effect of the PDO and AMO. When the PDO and AMO are in the same phase, the corresponding flood season is characterized by more precipitation, and conversely, it is less precipitation. Further analyses show that in the year after El Niño, when the PDO and AMO are both in the positive phase, it is favorable for the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) to be stronger and more southward than normal. Such circulation anomaly is conducive to the water vapor transport to the southern China, and as a result there is more precipitation in Hunan. When the PDO and AMO are both in the negative phase, the WPSH is weaker than normal, but the India-Burma trough is obviously stronger, which is also favorable for the southwesterly water vapor transport to the southern China. However, in the next year of the La Niña year, regardless of the phase combination of the PDO and AMO, the southern coast of China are controlled by a negative geopotential height anomaly and the WPSH retreats to the sea, which is not conducive to the northward transport of water vapor, and the precipitation in Hunan is less than normal. But if only the cold SST background in the previous stage is considered (without reaching the standard of a La Niña event),is more precipitation in most of the Hunan Province. Therefore, at the interannual scale, the PDO and AMO also have a modulating effect on the precipitation signal. However, the interannual-scale ENSO signal has a greater influence on the precipitation in Hunan flood seasons. Our results will give implications for the predications of floods in Hunan.

Satellite-Based Observations Reveal the Altitude-Dependent Patterns of SIFyield and Its Sensitivity to Ambient Temperature in Tibetan Meadows

Photosynthesis and its sensitivity to the changing environment in alpine regions are of great significance to the understanding of vegetation–environment interactions and other global ecological processes in the context of global change, while their variations along the elevation gradient remain unclear. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) derived from satellite observations, we discovered an increase in solar-induced fluorescence yield (SIFyield) with rising elevation in Tibetan meadows in the summer, related to the altitudinal variation in temperature sensitivity at both seasonal and interannual scales. Results of the altitudinal patterns of SIFyield demonstrated higher temperature sensitivity at high altitudes, and the sensitivity at the interannual scale even exceeds that at seasonal scale when the elevation reaches above 4700 m. This high-temperature sensitivity of SIFyield at high altitudes implies potential adaptation of alpine plants and also indicates that changes in photosynthesis-related physiological functions at high altitudes should receive more attention in climate change research. The altitudinal SIFyield patterns revealed in this study also highlight that variations in temperature sensitivity should be considered in models, otherwise the increasing trend of SIFyield observations can never be discovered in empirical simulations.

Assessment of responses of North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature to the North Atlantic Oscillation on an interannual scale in 13 CMIP5 models

This study evaluates the response of winter-average sea surface temperature (SST) to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated by 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models in the North Atlantic (NA) (0–65∘ N) on an interannual scale. Most of the models can reproduce an observed tripolar pattern of the response of the SST anomalies to the NAO on an interannual scale. The model bias is mainly reflected in the locations of the negative-response centers in the subpolar NA (45–65∘ N), which is mainly caused by the bias of the response of the SST anomalies to the NAO-driven turbulent heat flux (THF) anomalies. Although the influence of the sensible heat flux (SHF) on the SST is similar to that of the latent heat flux (LHF), it seems that the SHF may play a larger role in the response of the SST to the NAO, and the weak negative response of the SST anomalies to the NAO-driven LHF anomalies is mainly caused by the overestimated oceanic role in the interaction of the LHF and SST. Besides the THF, some other factors which may impact the relationship of the NAO and SST are discussed. The relationship of the NAO and SST is basically not affected by the heat meridional advection transports on an interannual timescale, but it may be influenced by the cutoffs of data filtering, the initial fields, and external-forcing data in some individual models, and in the tropical NA it can also be affected by the different definitions of the NAO indices.