scholarly journals Asymptomatic Cases, the Hidden Challenge in Predicting COVID-19 Caseload Increases

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 340-347
Author(s):  
Brett Snider ◽  
Bhumi Patel ◽  
Edward McBean

The numbers of novel coronavirus cases continue to grow at an unprecedented rate across the world. Attempts to control the growth of the virus using masks and social-distancing, and, recently, double-masking as well, continue to be difficult to maintain, in part due to the extent of asymptomatic cases. Analyses of large datasets consisting of 219,075 individual cases in Ontario, indicated that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases are substantial in number. Large numbers of cases in children aged 0–9 were asymptomatic or had only one symptom (35.0% and 31.4% of total cases, respectively) and resulted in fever as the most common symptom (30.6% of total cases). COVID-19 cases in children were more likely to be milder symptomatic with cough not seen as frequently as in adults aged over 40, and past research has shown children to be index cases in familial clusters. These findings highlight the importance of targeting asymptomatic and mild infections in the continuing effort to control the spread of COVID-19. The Pearson correlation coefficient between test positivity rates and asymptomatic rates of −0.729 indicates that estimates of the asymptomatic rates should be obtained when the test positivity rates are lowest as the best approach.

Author(s):  
Paulo Ferreira ◽  
Éder Pereira

The numbers of COVID-19 increase daily, both confirmed cases and deaths. All over the world, shock waves are felt with impacts on economies in general and the financial sector in particular. Aiming to assess the relationship between confirmed cases and deaths and the behaviour of stock markets, the authors perform a dynamic analysis, based on the Pearson correlation coefficient, for 10 of the most affected countries in the world. As expected, they find evidence that the number of COVID-19 cases had a negative effect on stock markets, and that the current second wave is penalizing them. They also find that deaths have a more relevant impact than the number of confirmed cases.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4109
Author(s):  
Robert Krzysztofik ◽  
Iwona Kantor-Pietraga ◽  
Tomasz Spórna

The successive phases of the global COVID-19 pandemic show some differences from the first wave in 2020. The most important of these is some experience in responding to its spread and in applying vaccines. However, new, more aggressive variants of COVID-19 mean that the pandemic is often taking on the nature of the one experienced by societies a year ago. So, the knowledge about the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is still up-to-date—significantly where the essential determinants of its spread have not changed. The article presents the Silesian Voivodeship case in Southern Poland, distinguished by different geographical conditions compared to the entire country. The authors showed the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and the characteristic attributes of the analysed area (post-)mining functions or urban shrinkage. The article conducted a dependence study using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the signs table method. In turn, the authors used thematic cartography to present the results of the analysis. It turned out that two attributes, namely (post-)mining and urban shrinkage, are essential in spreading the epidemic with the region analysed. This conclusion may be essential in implementing national and regional policies related to reducing the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a limitation in the scope of the presented applications is the fact that mining regions, such as the Silesian (Śląskie) Voivodeship, are currently less numerous in the world than, for example, those that develop based on services.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-53
Author(s):  
Vicente Benavides-Córdoba ◽  
Mauricio Palacios Gómez

Introduction: Animal models have been used to understand the pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension, to describe the mechanisms of action and to evaluate promising active ingredients. The monocrotaline-induced pulmonary hypertension model is the most used animal model. In this model, invasive and non-invasive hemodynamic variables that resemble human measurements have been used. Aim: To define if non-invasive variables can predict hemodynamic measures in the monocrotaline-induced pulmonary hypertension model. Materials and Methods: Twenty 6-week old male Wistar rats weighing between 250-300g from the bioterium of the Universidad del Valle (Cali - Colombia) were used in order to establish that the relationships between invasive and non-invasive variables are sustained in different conditions (healthy, hypertrophy and treated). The animals were organized into three groups, a control group who was given 0.9% saline solution subcutaneously (sc), a group with pulmonary hypertension induced with a single subcutaneous dose of Monocrotaline 30 mg/kg, and a group with pulmonary hypertension with 30 mg/kg of monocrotaline treated with Sildenafil. Right ventricle ejection fraction, heart rate, right ventricle systolic pressure and the extent of hypertrophy were measured. The functional relation between any two variables was evaluated by the Pearson correlation coefficient. Results: It was found that all correlations were statistically significant (p <0.01). The strongest correlation was the inverse one between the RVEF and the Fulton index (r = -0.82). The Fulton index also had a strong correlation with the RVSP (r = 0.79). The Pearson correlation coefficient between the RVEF and the RVSP was -0.81, meaning that the higher the systolic pressure in the right ventricle, the lower the ejection fraction value. Heart rate was significantly correlated to the other three variables studied, although with relatively low correlation. Conclusion: The correlations obtained in this study indicate that the parameters evaluated in the research related to experimental pulmonary hypertension correlate adequately and that the measurements that are currently made are adequate and consistent with each other, that is, they have good predictive capacity.


Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 156
Author(s):  
Charles Carlson ◽  
Vanessa-Rose Turpin ◽  
Ahmad Suliman ◽  
Carl Ade ◽  
Steve Warren ◽  
...  

Background: The goal of this work was to create a sharable dataset of heart-driven signals, including ballistocardiograms (BCGs) and time-aligned electrocardiograms (ECGs), photoplethysmograms (PPGs), and blood pressure waveforms. Methods: A custom, bed-based ballistocardiographic system is described in detail. Affiliated cardiopulmonary signals are acquired using a GE Datex CardioCap 5 patient monitor (which collects ECG and PPG data) and a Finapres Medical Systems Finometer PRO (which provides continuous reconstructed brachial artery pressure waveforms and derived cardiovascular parameters). Results: Data were collected from 40 participants, 4 of whom had been or were currently diagnosed with a heart condition at the time they enrolled in the study. An investigation revealed that features extracted from a BCG could be used to track changes in systolic blood pressure (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.54 +/− 0.15), dP/dtmax (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.51 +/− 0.18), and stroke volume (Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.54 +/− 0.17). Conclusion: A collection of synchronized, heart-driven signals, including BCGs, ECGs, PPGs, and blood pressure waveforms, was acquired and made publicly available. An initial study indicated that bed-based ballistocardiography can be used to track beat-to-beat changes in systolic blood pressure and stroke volume. Significance: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no other database that includes time-aligned ECG, PPG, BCG, and continuous blood pressure data is available to the public. This dataset could be used by other researchers for algorithm testing and development in this fast-growing field of health assessment, without requiring these individuals to invest considerable time and resources into hardware development and data collection.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Omolola M. Adisa ◽  
Muthoni Masinde ◽  
Joel O. Botai

This study examines the (dis)similarity of two commonly used indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed over accumulation periods 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month (hereafter SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12, respectively) and Effective Drought Index (EDI). The analysis is based on two drought monitoring indicators (derived from SPI and EDI), namely, the Drought Duration (DD) and Drought Severity (DS) across the 93 South African Weather Service’s delineated rainfall districts over South Africa from 1980 to 2019. In the study, the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and periodogram dissimilarity estimates were used. The results indicate a positive correlation for the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and a positive value for periodogram of dissimilarity in both the DD and DS. With the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity, the study demonstrates that the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and the SPI-3/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while the SPI-6/EDI pair shows the highest similar values for DS. Moreover, dissimilarities are more obvious in SPI-12/EDI pair for DD and DS. When a periodogram of dissimilarity is used, the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and SPI-6/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while SPI-1/EDI displayed the highest similar values for DS. Overall, the two measures show that the highest similarity is obtained in the SPI-1/EDI pair for DS. The results obtainable in this study contribute towards an in-depth knowledge of deviation between the EDI and SPI values for South Africa, depicting that these two drought indices values are replaceable in some rainfall districts of South Africa for drought monitoring and prediction, and this is a step towards the selection of the appropriate drought indices.


PEDIATRICS ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 87 (5) ◽  
pp. 708-711
Author(s):  
Matthew W. Gillman ◽  
Bernard Rosner ◽  
Denis A. Evans ◽  
Laurel A. Smith ◽  
James O. Taylor ◽  
...  

Previous studies of childhood blood pressure have shown tracking correlations, which estimate the magnitude of association between initial and subsequent measurements, to be lower than corresponding adult values. Inasmuch as this disparity could arise from failing to account for a larger week-to-week variability in children, blood pressure was measured for 4 successive years, on four weekly visits in each year, and with three measurements at each visit, using a random-zero sphygmomanometer, in a cohort of 333 schoolchildren aged 8 through 15 at entry. Ninety percent of subjects had measurements in 1 or more years of follow-up. For all follow-up periods (1, 2, and 3 years from baseline), the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) for both systolic and diastolic blood pressure rose substantially with the number of weekly visits used to calculate each subject's yearly blood pressure (P &lt; .0001). For systolic pressure, the 3-year r values for 1, 2, 3, and 4 visits were .45, .55, .64, and .69, respectively. For diastolic pressure (Korotkoff phase 4), the corresponding values were .28, .41, .47, and .54. These higher multiple-visit estimates of tracking approximate published adult values and raise the possibility that prediction of adult blood pressure from childhood measurements may be improved by averaging readings from multiple weekly visits.


2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (8) ◽  
pp. 0810025
Author(s):  
李硕 Li Shuo ◽  
韩迎东 Han Yingdong ◽  
王双 Wang Shuang ◽  
刘琨 Liu Kun ◽  
江俊峰 Jiang Junfeng ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. 208-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haomiao Zhou ◽  
Zhihong Deng ◽  
Yuanqing Xia ◽  
Mengyin Fu

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