Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach

Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041–2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991–2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations.

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Impact of Climate Change on Rice and Wheat Yield in Punjab State of India: A District-Level Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-612890/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mandeep Bhardwaj ◽

Pushp Kumar ◽

Siddharth Kumar ◽

Ashish Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Least Squares ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Rice Yield ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

District Level ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Impact

Abstract The present study aims to examine the impact of climate change on wheat and rice yield of the Punjab state of India. Using district-level panel data from 1981 to 2017, the study employs fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and pooed mean group (PMG) approaches. The Pedroni cointegration has established a long-run relationship of climate variables with rice and wheat crops. The results of FMOLS and DOLS show that minimum temperature has a positive effect on both wheat and rice, while maximum temperature is found to be negatively contributing to both the crops. Rainfall has a significant adverse effect on wheat yield. Seasonal rainfall has been detrimental to wheat and rice yield in the study period, indicating that excess rainfall proved counterproductive. Pooled mean group (PMG) model confirms the robustness of the results obtained by FMOLS and DOLS techniques. Moreover, Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test has revealed a unidirectional causality running from minimum temperature, rainfall & maximum temperature to rice and wheat yield. The findings of the study suggest that the government should invest in developing stress-tolerant varieties of wheat and rice, managing crop residuals to curb further environmental effect and sustain natural resources for ensuring food security.

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Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485321000195 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽

Cesar Augusto Marchioro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Linear Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Temperature Dependent ◽

Dependent Development ◽

Degree Day ◽

Non Linear ◽

The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

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Comparing precipitation and temperature trends between inland and coastal locations

ANZIAM Journal ◽

10.21914/anziamj.v60i0.13967 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 60 ◽

pp. C109-C126 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Joshua Hartigan ◽

Shev MacNamara ◽

Lance M Leslie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Power Spectra ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

P Value ◽

Wet Season ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Past ◽

The Mean

Motivated by the Millennium Drought and the current drought over much of southern and eastern Australia, this detailed statistical study compares trends in annual wet season precipitation and temperature between a coastal site (Newcastle) and an inland site (Scone). Bootstrap permutation tests reveal Scone precipitation has decreased significantly over the past 40 years (p-value=0.070) whereas Newcastle has recorded little to no change (p-value=0.800). Mean maximum and minimum temperatures for Newcastle have increased over the past 40 years (p-values of 0.002 and 0.015, respectively) while the mean maximum temperature for Scone has increased (p-value = 0.058) and the mean minimum temperature has remained stable. This suggests mean temperatures during the wet season for both locations are increasing. Considering these trends along with those for precipitation, water resources in the Hunter region will be increasingly strained as a result of increased evaporation with either similar or less precipitation falling in the region. Wavelet analysis reveals that both sites have similar power spectra for precipitation and mean maximum temperature with a statistically significant signal in the two to seven year period, typically indicative of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation climate driver. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation also drives the Newcastle mean minimum temperature, whereas the Scone power spectra has no indication of a definitive driver for mean minimum temperature. References R. A., R. L. Kitching, F. Chiew, L. Hughes, P. C. D. Newton, S. S. Schuster, A. Tait, and P. Whetton. Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Technical report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014. URL https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Bureau of Meteorology. Climate Glossary-Drought. URL http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/drought.shtml. K. M. Lau and H. Weng. Climate signal detection using wavelet transform: How to make a time series sing. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 76:23912402, 1995. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1995)0762391:CSDUWT>2.0.CO;2. M. B. Richman and L. M. Leslie. Uniqueness and causes of the California drought. Procedia Comput. Sci., 61:428435, 2015. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2015.09.181. M. B. Richman and L. M. Leslie. The 20152017 Cape Town drought: Attribution and prediction using machine learning. Procedia Comput. Sci., 140:248257, 2018. doi:10.1016/j.procs.2018.10.323.

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Treeline dynamics with climate change at the central Nepal Himalaya

Climate of the Past ◽

10.5194/cp-10-1277-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 10 (4) ◽

pp. 1277-1290 ◽

Cited By ~ 69

Author(s):

N. P. Gaire ◽

M. Koirala ◽

D. R. Bhuju ◽

H. P. Borgaonkar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Plant Density ◽

Elevation Gradient ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

High Mountain ◽

Nepal Himalaya ◽

Central Nepal ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Treeline shifting in tandem with climate change has widely been reported from various parts of the world. In Nepal, several impacts of climate change on the physical environment have been observed, but study on the biological impacts is lacking. This dendrochronological study was carried out at the treeline in the high mountain slope of Kalchuman Lake (3750–4003 m a.s.l.) area of Manaslu Conservation Area in the central Nepal Himalaya to explore the impact of climate change on the treeline dynamic. Two belt transect plots (size: 20 m wide, > 250 m long) were laid which included treeline as well as tree species limit. Ecological mapping of all individuals of dominant trees Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis was done and their tree cores were collected. Stand character and age distribution revealed an occurrence of more matured B. utilis (max. age 198 years) compared to A. spectabilis (max. age 160 years). A. spectabilis contained an overwhelmingly high population (89%) of younger plants (< 50 years) indicating its high recruitment rate. Population age structure along the elevation gradient revealed an upward shifting of A. spectabilis at the rate of 2.61 m year-1 since AD 1850. The upper distribution limit of B. utilis was found to be stagnant in the past few decades. An increment in plant density as well as upward shifting in the studied treeline ecotones was observed. The temporal growth of A. spectabilis was correlated negatively with the monthly mean and minimum temperature of June to September of the current and previous year. The regeneration of A. spectabilis, on the other hand, was positively correlated with August precipitation and monthly maximum temperature of the month of the current year. The growth and regeneration of A. spectabilis was more sensitive to maximum and minimum temperature rather than average temperature. The growth of the B. utilis was mainly limited by moisture stress during the pre-monsoon season. As these two species presented species-specific responses to climate change with differential pattern in regeneration condition, much wider differences are anticipated in their population status as climate continues to change throughout the century.

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Modeling the Historical Temperature in the Province of Laguna Using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

European Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics ◽

10.29020/nybg.ejpam.v14i1.3911 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 327-339

Author(s):

Kemuel III Quindala ◽

Diane Carmeliza Cuaresma ◽

Jonathan Mamplata

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum ◽

Uhlenbeck Process ◽

Local Setting ◽

Proposed Model ◽

The Mean ◽

Historical Temperature ◽

Major Factors

The behavior of temperature is one of the major factors in the study of climate change which has already invited a lot of researchers and policymakers. These studies help in deciding the best adaptation and mitigation strategy. However, there are little studies on the progression of climate change in a local setting, such as in a municipal or provincial level. This study explored to model, using regression, the daily temperature in the province of Laguna. The daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1960 to 2018 were modeled using the classical Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with additive seasonality. The model showed that the province saw an increase of $1.16^\circ$C (resp. $0.55^\circ$C) in the mean daily minimum (resp. maximum) temperature from 1960 to 2018. It was also found that minimum temperature showed a steadier increase than maximum temperature, which poses threats to agricultural activities. Consistent with other international predictions, there was a $0.02^\circ$C annual increase in 1960 to a $0.05^\circ$C starting in 2010. The proposed model can be used by authorities in designing and creating adaptive measures that would be more effective to the province of Laguna.

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Climatic Impact on Wheat Production in Terai of Nepal

Journal of Development and Administrative Studies ◽

10.3126/jodas.v23i1-2.15445 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (1-2) ◽

pp. 1-22 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Niranjan Devkota ◽

Ram Kumar Phuyal

Keyword(s):

Population Density ◽

Climatic Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climatic Impact ◽

Wheat Production ◽

Average Maximum ◽

Human Labour ◽

Net Revenue

This study examines the climatic impact on wheat production in Terai of Nepal. This paper employs a Ricardian cross-sectional approach to estimates the relationship between wheat production and net revenue associated with wheat production in the plain area of Nepal (i.e. Terai) with different temperatures (average, maximum and minimum), precipitation and other traditional inputs like population density, seed, fertilizer, human labour, bullock labour and tractor. By using district level secondary data of 25 years, this study finds significant positive impact of the average and maximum temperature and significant negative impact of the minimum temperature on net revenue and wheat yield of the Terai region. Similarly, precipitation has mixed impacts. With the maximum temperature, increase in precipitation reduces net revenue and wheat yield whereas with average and minimum temperature, precipitation increases wheat yields as well as revenue. Other traditional inputs like population density, seed, manure, human labour and tractor used are positively associated with climatic change and increase net revenue as well as wheat yield whereas fertilizer and bullock used are negatively associated with climatic change and reduce net revenue and wheat yield.The Journal of Development and Administrative Studies (JODAS), Vol. 23(1-2), pp. 1-22

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Excessive Rainfall Is the Key Meteorological Limiting Factor for Winter Wheat Yield in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy12010050 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 50

Author(s):

Weiwei Liu ◽

Weiwei Sun ◽

Jingfeng Huang ◽

Huayang Wen ◽

Ran Huang

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Winter Wheat ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Sunshine Hours ◽

Winter Wheat Yield ◽

The Impact

In the era of global climate change, extreme weather events frequently occur. Many kinds of agro-meteorological disasters that are closely related to environmental conditions (such as sunshine hours, temperature, precipitation, etc.) are witnessed all over the word. However, which factor dominates winter wheat production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River remains unresolved. Quantifying the key limiting meteorological factor could deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change on crops and then help us to formulate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. However, the relative role of precipitation, sunshine hours and maximum daily temperature in limiting winter wheat yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is not clear and difficult to decouple. In this study, we used statistical methods to quantify the effect of precipitation, maximum temperature and sunshine hours extremes on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield based on long time-series, county-level yield data and a daily meteorological dataset. According to the winter wheat growing season period (October of the sowing year to May of the following year), anomaly values of cumulative precipitation, average sunshine hours and average daily maximum temperature are calculated. With the range of −3 σ to 3 σ of anomaly and an interval of 0.5 σ (σ is the corresponding standard deviation of cumulative precipitation, mean maximum temperature and mean sunshine hours, respectively), the corresponding weighted yield loss ratio (WYLR) represents the impact of this kind of climate condition on yield. The results show that excessive rainfall is the key limiting meteorological factor that can reduce winter wheat yield to −18.4% in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while it is only −0.24% in extreme dry conditions. Moreover, yield loss under extreme temperature and sunshine hours are negligible (−0.66% for extremely long sunshine hours and −8.29% for extreme cold). More detailed analysis results show that the impact of excessive rainfall on winter wheat yield varies regionally, as it causes severe yield reductions in the Huai River basin and the middle to southern part with low elevation and rainy areas of the study area, while for drier areas in the Hubei province, there is even an increase in yield. Our results disclosed with observational evidence that excessive precipitation is the key meteorological limiting factor leading to the reduction in winter wheat yield in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The knowledge of the possible impact of climate change on winter wheat yield in the study area allows policy-makers, agronomists and economists to better forecast a plan that differs from the past. In addition, our results emphasized the need for better understanding and further process-based model simulation of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.

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Analysis of Past and Projected Trends of Rainfall and Temperature Parameters in Eastern and Western Hararghe Zones, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos13010067 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 67

Author(s):

Helen Teshome ◽

Kindie Tesfaye ◽

Nigussie Dechassa ◽

Tamado Tana ◽

Matthew Huber

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Climate Change And Variability ◽

Annual Minimum Temperature ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

The Mean ◽

East And West

Smallholder farmers in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia frequently face problems of climate extremes. Knowledge of past and projected climate change and variability at local and regional scales can help develop adaptation measures. A study was therefore conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988–2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at selected stations in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia. To detect the trends and magnitude of change Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed, respectively. The result of the study indicated that for the last three decades annual and seasonal and monthly rainfall showed high variability but the changes are not statistically significant. On the other hand, the minimum temperature of the ‘Belg’ season showed a significant (p < 0.05) increment. The mean annual minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.34 °C and 2.52 °C for 2030, and 0.41 °C and 4.15 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Additionally, the mean maximum temperature is projected to change by −0.02 °C and 1.14 °C for 2030, and 0.54 °C and 1.87 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Annual rainfall amount is also projected to increase by 2.5% and 29% for 2030, and 12% and 32% for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Hence, it is concluded that there was an increasing trend in the Belg season minimum temperature. A significant increasing trend in rainfall and temperature are projected compared to the baseline period for most of the districts studied. This implies a need to design climate-smart crop and livestock production strategies, as well as an early warning system to counter the drastic effects of climate change and variability on agricultural production and farmers’ livelihood in the region.

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Effects of heat extremes on wheat yields in Australia

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science ◽

10.1071/es16021 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 66 (3) ◽

pp. 314

Author(s):

Ben Hague ◽

Karl Braganza ◽

David Jones

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Western Australia ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Wheat Yield ◽

Extreme Heat ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

The Impact

Many agricultural studies have identified that wheat yield is sensitive to seasonal rainfall and extreme high temperatures. We investigate the impact of extreme heat events, in particular on wheat yields in South-East Australia (SEA) and South-West Western Australia (SWWA).We define a 'heat-day' as a day where the daily maximum temperature exceeds the 1911–2013 90th percentile for the respective calendar month. We find that the number of heat-days has experienced statistically significant increases across most months across much of Australia, particularly in South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. The trends are especially marked in winter, including in key wheat-growing regions. The temperatures recorded on these hottest days have also shown a statistically significant increase over the last 100 years.We find that, while wheat yields are more strongly correlated with rainfall than with the number of heat-days, there is substantial evidence to suggest that during drought conditions wheat yields are sensitive to the number of heat-days recorded in August and September in SEA and September and October in SWWA. Extreme heat and rainfall have a stronger association with below-average yields than above-average yields.Extreme temperatures and rainfall in these regions are related to major Australian climate drivers which form the basis of seasonal prediction models and are important for natural variability and long-term climate change. Here we assess the degree to which wheat yields in both regions can be related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We find that positive IOD events and El Niño events are both associated with reductions in wheat yields in SEA, but that the co-incidence of these events have no additional wheat yield reductions than would be expected if either a positive IOD or El Niño event occurs. The average annual wheat yield loss associated with El Niño state and/or positive IOD state in SEA is estimated to around sixteen to twenty one per cent.This paper provides insights into the historical relationships between wheat yields, extreme heat and climatic modes of variability in Australia, and discusses the possibilities for changes in wheat yields under a future climate change scenario.

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Trends Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature over Nagwan Watershed, Hazaribagh District, Jharkhand

Current Journal of Applied Science and Technology ◽

10.9734/cjast/2020/v39i1930798 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 112-128

Author(s):

Raj Bahadur ◽

R. K. Jaiswal ◽

A. K. Nema ◽

Anshu Gangwar ◽

Sandeep Kumar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Minimum Temperature ◽

Summer Season ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Annual Average ◽

Increasing Trend ◽

Z Value ◽

The Impact

Trend analysis is performed to find the pattern that prevails in Nagwan watershed area located in Hazaribagh district of Jharkhand (India) having very high average annual rainfall in the range of 1146 mm. The study aims to investigated the impacts of global warming by examine precipitation and temperature change over a period. Non-parametric MK test and Sen’s Slope estimator were used to assess the trend in long-term rainfall and temperature time series (1981-2019). The analysis has been carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual scale to identify meso-scale climate change effect on hydrological regime. The precipitation in the summer showed an increasing trend (Z value +1.67) and there was increasing trend in the seasonal rainfall which influences the total water availability in the watershed. There was increase in minimum temperature during summer season which shows the impact of global warming and may results in increasing the duration of the summer season. The annual average minimum temperature in the watershed showed an increasing trend (Z value +2.08) at 0.05 level of significance indicated hot nights in the summer. The annual average maximum temperature in the watershed showed a decreasing trend (Z value -1.26). Fluctuation and change in trend of rainfall and temperature possess potential risk hence it is important to understand and identify the pattern of rainfall and temperature for assessing impact of climate change and it is necessary to adopt appropriate steps for agriculture crop planning and improving farmer’s capability to cope with challenging situations due to environmental and climate changes.

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