Analysis of Pneumonia Occurrence in Relation to Climate Change in Tanga, Tanzania

In 2018, 70% of global fatalities due to pneumonia occurred in about fifteen countries, with Tanzania being among the top eight countries contributing to these deaths. Environmental and individual factors contributing to these deaths may be multifaceted, but they have not yet been explored in Tanzania. Therefore, in this study, we explore the association between climate change and the occurrence of pneumonia in the Tanga Region, Tanzania. A time series study design was employed using meteorological and health data of the Tanga Region collected from January 2016 to December 2018 from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and Health Management Information System, respectively. The generalized negative binomial regression technique was used to explore the associations between climate indicators (i.e., precipitation, humidity, and temperature) and the occurrence of pneumonia. There were trend differences in climate indicators and the occurrence of pneumonia between the Tanga and Handeni districts. We found a positive association between humidity and increased rates of non-severe pneumonia (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02; p ≤ 0.05) and severe pneumonia (IRR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01–1.03; p ≤ 0.05). There was also a significant association between cold temperatures and the rate of severe pneumonia in Tanga (IRR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.11–1.33; p ≤ 0.001). Other factors that were associated with pneumonia included age and district of residence. We found a positive relationship between humidity, temperature, and incidence of pneumonia in the Tanga Region. Policies focusing on prevention and control, as well as promotion strategies relating to climate change-related health effects should be developed and implemented.

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Handling of Overdispersion in the Poisson Regression Model with Negative Binomial for the Number of New Cases of Leprosy in Java

Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications ◽

10.29244/ijsa.v5i1p1-13 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Yopi Ariesia Ulfa ◽

Agus M Soleh ◽

Bagus Sartono

Keyword(s):

Regression Model ◽

Poisson Regression ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Directorate General ◽

The Republic ◽

And Control

Based on data from the Directorate General of Disease Prevention and Control of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, in 2017, new leprosy cases that emerged on Java Island were the highest in Indonesia compared to the number of events on other islands. The purpose of this study is to compare Poisson regression to a negative binomial regression model to be applied to the data on the number of new cases of leprosy and to find out what explanatory variables have a significant effect on the number of new cases of leprosy in Java. This study's results indicate that a negative binomial regression model can overcome the Poisson regression model's overdispersion. Variables that significantly affect the number of new cases of leprosy based on the results of negative binomial regression modeling are total population, percentage of children under five years who had immunized with BCG, and percentage of the population with sustainable access to clean water.

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The association between self-harm and area-level characteristics in Northern Ireland: an ecological study

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckz021 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 29 (5) ◽

pp. 948-953 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Eve Griffin ◽

Brendan Bonner ◽

Christina B Dillon ◽

Denise O’Hagan ◽

Paul Corcoran

Keyword(s):

Northern Ireland ◽

Population Density ◽

Suicidal Behaviour ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Positive Association ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Self Harm ◽

Deprived Areas

Abstract Background Factors contributing to suicidal behaviour are complex and multi-faceted. This study took an ecological approach to examine the association between area-level factors and rates of self-harm in Northern Ireland. Methods Data on self-harm presentations to emergency departments (EDs) were obtained from the Northern Ireland Self-harm Registry. The study included residents of Northern Ireland aged 16–64 years. Deprivation was measured using the Northern Ireland Multiple Deprivation Measure 2017. Population density and social fragmentation were calculated using measures from the 2011 census. Associations between area-level factors and self-harm rates were explored using negative binomial regression. Results Between 2013 and 2015, 14 477 individuals aged 16–64 years presented to EDs in Northern Ireland following self-harm. The rate of self-harm was 472 per 100 000 and was higher for male residents (478 vs. 467). Self-harm rates were highest in urban areas—680 per 100 000 in Belfast City and 751 per 100 000 in Derry City. Rates of self-harm in Northern Ireland were more than four times higher in the most deprived areas. A positive association with rates of self-harm held for the deprivation domains of employment, crime, education, health and income. There was a moderate association with population density. Some gender differences emerged, with associations with male rates of self-harm more pronounced. Conclusion These findings indicate that self-harm rates are highest for those residing in highly deprived areas, where unemployment, crime and low level of education are challenges. Community interventions tailored to meet the needs of specific areas may be effective in reducing suicidal behaviour.

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The Emergence of Spatial Clustering in Medical Vaccine Exemptions Following California Senate Bill 277, 2015–2018

American Journal of Public Health ◽

10.2105/ajph.2020.305607 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 110 (7) ◽

pp. 1084-1091 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ashley Gromis ◽

Ka-Yuet Liu

Keyword(s):

Disease Transmission ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Spatial Clustering ◽

Local Level ◽

Spatial Association ◽

Positive Association ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Scan Statistics ◽

Senate Bill ◽

Before And After

Objectives. To understand how the elimination of nonmedical vaccine exemptions through California Senate Bill 277 (SB277) may have resulted in increased spatial clustering of medical exemptions. Methods. We used spatial scan statistics and negative binomial regression models to examine spatial clustering in medical vaccine exemptions in California kindergartens from 2015 to 2018. Results. Spatial clustering of medical exemptions across schools emerged following SB277. Clusters were located in similar geographic areas to previous clusters of nonmedical vaccine exemptions, suggesting a spatial association between high nonmedical exemption prevalence and increasing rates of medical exemptions. Regression results confirmed this positive association at the local level. The sociodemographic characteristics of the neighborhoods in which schools were located explained some, but not all, of the positive spatial associations between exemptions before and after SB277. Conclusions. Elimination of nonmedical vaccine exemptions via SB277 may have prompted some parents to instead seek medical exemptions to required school vaccines. The spatial association of these 2 types of exemptions has implications for maintaining pockets of low vaccine compliance and increased disease transmission.

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Legionnaires’ disease

10.1093/med/9780198745471.003.0009 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Nick Phin ◽

Falguni Naik ◽

Elaine Stanford ◽

Sam Ghebrehewet

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Health Management ◽

Severe Pneumonia ◽

Background Information ◽

Source Of Infection ◽

Salient Points ◽

Legionnaires Disease ◽

And Control ◽

Typical Scenario

This chapter describes Legionnaires’ disease and its importance as a preventable cause of severe pneumonia—one that mainly affects older people and has a high mortality rate. The background information and epidemiology of Legionnaires’ disease describe the salient points succinctly. The approach to surveillance and public health management is described in detail, as, unlike many infectious diseases, the source of infection is in the environment and infection is not spread from person to person. A case study is used to describe a typical scenario, the principles used in the investigation, as well as the management and control of such incidents. Top tips are provided to reinforce key and essential activities.

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The relationship between citations, downloads and alternative metrics in rheumatology publications: a bibliometric study

Rheumatology ◽

10.1093/rheumatology/kez163 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 59 (2) ◽

pp. 277-280 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Winnie M Y Chen ◽

Marwan Bukhari ◽

Francesca Cockshull ◽

James Galloway

Keyword(s):

Negative Binomial ◽

Positive Association ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Significant Positive Association ◽

H Index ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Number Of Citations ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship ◽

Alternative Metrics

Abstract Objective Scientific journals and authors are frequently judged on ‘impact’. Commonly used traditional metrics are the Impact Factor and H-index. However, both take several years to formulate and have many limitations. Recently, Altmetric—a metric that measures impact in a non-traditional way—has gained popularity. This project aims to describe the relationships between subject matter, citations, downloads and Altmetric within rheumatology. Methods Data from publications in Rheumatology were used. Articles published from 2010 to 2015 were reviewed. Data were analysed using Stata 14.2 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA). Correlation between citations, downloads and Altmetric were quantified using linear regression, comparing across disease topics. Relationship between downloads and months since publications were described using negative binomial regression, clustering on individual articles. Results A total of 1460 Basic Science and Clinical Science articles were identified, with the number of citations, downloads and Altmetric scores. There were no correlations between disease topic and downloads (R2 = 0.016, P = 0.03), citations (R2 = 0.011, P = 0.29) or Altmetric (R2 = 0.025, P = 0.02). A statistically significant positive association was seen between the number of citations and downloads (R2 = 0.29, P < 0.001). No correlations were seen between Altmetric and downloads (R2 = 0.028, P < 0.001) or citations (R2 = 0.004, P = 0.445). Conclusion Disease area did not correlate with any of the metrics compared. Correlations were apparent with clear links between downloads and citations. Altmetric identified different articles as high impact compared with citation or download metrics. In conclusion: tweeting about your research does not appear to influence citations.

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Evaluation of the efficacy of an intersection conflict warning system at two-way stop-controlled rural intersections: difference-in-differences and triple-difference analytical approaches

Injury Prevention ◽

10.1136/injuryprev-2021-044321 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. injuryprev-2021-044321

Author(s):

Disi Tian ◽

Susan G Gerberich ◽

Hyun Kim ◽

Andrew D Ryan ◽

Darin J Erickson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

High Risk ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Warning System ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Difference In Difference ◽

Difference In Differences ◽

Crash Data ◽

Crash Rates ◽

And Control ◽

Analytical Approaches

ObjectiveIntersection conflict warning systems (ICWSs) have been implemented at high-risk two-way stop-controlled intersections to prevent right-angle crashes and associated injuries. This study involved investigation of the impacts of ICWSs on crash reductions.MethodsThe study used a quasi-experimental design to analyse the potential causal relations between Minnesota’s ICWSs and various crash rate outcomes (including total, injury, non-injury, targeted right-angle and non-right-angle crashes) in pre-post analyses. A restricted randomisation method enabled identification of three controls to each ICWS treatment intersection, and included as many comparable intersection characteristics as possible. Annual crash rates (per year per intersection) were analysed over the same periods before and after system activation for treatment and control intersections in each matched group. Pre-crash data for 3 years and post-crash data for up to 5 years were included, ranging from 2010 to 2018. Negative binomial regression models with generalised estimating equations were applied to estimate the average, immediate and continuing treatment effects of ICWSs, through the difference-in-differences and difference-in-difference-in-difference approaches, respectively.ResultsThe ICWS treatment was significantly associated with a decreasing trend for targeted right-angle crash rates posttreatment. Although not statistically significant, most crash rate outcomes appeared to be elevated immediately after treatment (statistically significant for sideswipe crashes only). Pre–post differences in average crash rates (over entire periods), except for incapacitating injury-related crashes, were not statistically significant between treatment and control intersections.ConclusionsThe study provided important insight into potential causal associations between intersection safety countermeasures and crashes at high-risk rural two-way stop-controlled intersections.

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Temporal relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases in São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil

Ciência & Saúde Coletiva ◽

10.1590/1413-81232015212.09592015 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 21 (2) ◽

pp. 641-646 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Fabrício Drummond Silva ◽

Alcione Miranda dos Santos ◽

Rita da Graça Carvalhal Frazão Corrêa ◽

Arlene de Jesus Mendes Caldas

Keyword(s):

Ecological Study ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Positive Association ◽

Information Criterion ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Distributed Lag Models ◽

Dengue Prevention ◽

And Control ◽

The Relationship ◽

Monthly Incidence

Abstract This study analyzed the relationship between rainfall, temperature and occurrence of dengue cases. Ecological study performed with autochthonous dengue cases reported during 2003 to 2010 in São Luís, Maranhão. Data of rainfall and temperature were collected monthly. The monthly incidence of dengue cases was calculated by year/100,000 inhabitants. In order to identify the influence of climate variables and dengue cases different distributed lag models using negative binomial distribution were considered. Model selection was based on the lowest AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). Thirteen thousand, four hundred forty-four cases of dengue between 2003 and 2010 were reported, with peaks in 2005, 2007 and 2010. The correlation between rainfall and the occurrence of dengue cases showed increase in the first months after the rainy months. Occurrence of dengue cases was observed during all the period of study. Only rainfall-lag per three months showed a positive association with the number of cases dengue. Thus, this municipality is considered as an endemic and epidemic site. In addition, the relation between rainfall and dengue cases was significant with a lag of three months. These results should be useful to the future development of politics healthy for dengue prevention and control.

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CROP DIVERSIFICATION AS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION: HOW DO BANGLADESHI FARMERS PERFORM?

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007819500076 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (02) ◽

pp. 1950007

Author(s):

SHAIKH MONIRUZZAMAN

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Structural Instability ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Crop Diversity ◽

Climatic Variables ◽

Mean Annual Temperature ◽

Crop Diversification ◽

Cross Sectional

This research is based on the theoretical framework of risk in rural agricultural economy where farmers consider climate change as idiosyncratic risk of production. Under the inter-temporal household consumption smoothing model, this paper considers crop diversification as an ex ante measure to tackle permanent income shock from climate change. This paper examines empirically whether crop diversity is affected by climate change and how this diversity will respond to different climate scenarios. Negative binomial regression models are estimated from a nationally representative sample of 11,389 farmers across Bangladesh and 30-year average of seasonal climatic variables to find the effects of climatic variables on crop diversity. This paper finds that crop diversity is climate-sensitive and this diversity in different locations varies with climatic conditions. This research unveils structural instability between different single cross-sectional models to simulate the effects of climatic variables on crop diversity. It also finds that increases in mean annual temperature by [Formula: see text]C by 2030 and [Formula: see text]C by 2100 have resulted in 26.40% and 149.83% increases in crop diversity compared to its baseline of 2010, respectively. The effects of rainfall scenarios on crop diversity are much lower compared to the effects of temperature.

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Alternative duty work as workplace-initiated procedure to reduce sickness absence

BMC Public Health ◽

10.1186/s12889-021-11181-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Pauliina Mattila-Holappa ◽

Johanna Kausto ◽

Ville Aalto ◽

Leena Kaila-Kangas ◽

Mika Kivimäki ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sickness Absence ◽

Repeated Measures ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Occupational Class ◽

Short Term ◽

Time Interaction ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

The Difference ◽

And Control

Abstract Purpose Alternative duty work is a procedure that enables an employee with a short-term disability to perform modified duties as an alternative to sickness absence. We examined whether the implementation of an alternative duty policy was associated with reduced sickness absence in the Finnish public sector. Methods Two city administrations (A and D) that implemented an alternative duty work policy to their employees (n = 5341 and n = 7538) served as our intervention cities, and two city administrations (B and C) that did not implement the policy represented the reference cities (n = 6976 and n = 6720). The outcomes were the number of annual days, all episodes, and short-term (< 10 days) episodes during the 2 years before versus the 2 years after the intervention year. We applied repeated measures negative binomial regression analyses, using the generalized estimating equations method and the difference-in-difference analysis to compare the intervention and control cities (adjusted for sex, age, type of job contract, occupational class). Results During the five-year study period, the number of sickness absence days and episodes increased in both the intervention and control cities. Covariate-adjusted analysis of relative risk showed that the overall increase in post- versus pre-intervention sickness absence days was smaller in intervention City A, RR = 1.14 (95% CI = 1.09–1.21) than in control cities B and C, RR = 1.19 (95% CI =1.14–1.24), group × time interaction p < 0.02. In intervention City D, we found a corresponding result regarding all sickness absence episodes and short-term sickness absence episodes but not days. Conclusions This follow-up suggests that implementing an alternative duty work policy may marginally decrease employees’ sickness absences.

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149 Uptake of C18:0 from culture media during invitro culture decreases cryosurvival rates of bovine embryos

Reproduction Fertility and Development ◽

10.1071/rdv33n2ab149 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 33 (2) ◽

pp. 183

Author(s):

I. Bertijn ◽

B. M. Gadella ◽

H. T. A. van Tol ◽

A. Rijneveld ◽

P. L. A. M. Vos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Embryo Culture ◽

Negative Binomial ◽

Culture Media ◽

Negative Binomial Regression ◽

Terminal Deoxynucleotidyl Transferase ◽

Bovine Embryos ◽

Multiple Ovulation ◽

Binomial Regression ◽

Post Hoc ◽

And Control

Cryosurvival of invitro-produced bovine embryos is lower than that of invivo-produced embryos, limiting their usability in the field. Previous work showed that the embryo’s lipid composition relates to its quality and cryosurvival. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of free fatty acid (FA) additions to embryo culture media during the oviduct phase of embryonic development on the improvement of cryosurvival of invitro-produced blastocysts. Bovine cumulus–oocyte complexes (n=1675, 3 replicates) were harvested from slaughterhouse ovaries, invitro matured (23h), and subsequently fertilized (18–20h). Embryos were cultured until Day 5 post-fertilization in synthetic oviductal fluid (SOF) with (1) bovine serum albumin (BSA; control, n=253); (2) delipidified BSA (>96% FA free, n=460); (3), delipidified BSA complexed with 25µM unsaturated oleic acid (C18:1, n=455); or (4) with saturated stearic acid (C18:0, n=507) with a stoichiometry of 5:1. At Day 5, SOF was refreshed and embryos were cultured without supplementation. At Days 7 and 8, blastocyst rates were determined. Blastocysts were LD540 stained for lipid droplets (LD), and the LD number and size were analysed by ANOVA. Cryosurvival%, defined by re-expansion of the blastocoel, was analysed by logistic regression. Additionally, fresh and frozen–thawed blastocysts were stained for apoptosis (terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick-end labelling, TUNEL), necrosis (EthD-1), and DNA (Hoechst 33342) and analysed using negative binomial regression. Group differences were tested using a post hoc Tukey test. Statistical analysis was performed in R Studio (version 3.4.2), and P-values <0.05 were considered significant. FA-free culture delayed and decreased blastocyst rates to 19% compared with any FA supplementation: 35%, 27%, and 29% for control, C18:1, and C18:0, respectively (P<0.04). Cryosurvival doubled with culture in FA-free SOF (58%) and C18:1 (63%) compared with C18:0 (23% P=0.01 and P<0.01, respectively) and control (29%; P=0.15 and P<0.02, respectively), approaching cryosurvival rates of donated multiple ovulation embryo transfer (MOET) embryos (CRV Company; 67%). C18:0 exposure also resulted in elevated necrosis levels after cryopreservation (5–8% of cells), compared with all groups (2–4%; P<0.016). The LD size increased in blastocysts cultured with C18:1 compared with all groups (3.1µm2 vs. 2.4–2.7µm2; P<0.016). C18:0 addition to SOF during embryo culture invitro, as well as a mixture of FA in control SOF (including C18:0), caused a reduction of ∼50% in blastocyst cryosurvival compared with MOET blastocysts. Interestingly, either C18:1 addition or the complete omission of FA in SOF during embryo culture invitro restored the cryosurvival of blastocysts to the level of MOET blastocysts. Currently, we are investigating whether the free FA conditions in the oviduct endorse the distinct quality between invivo- and invitro-produced embryos.

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