Exploring Water Level Sensitivity for Metropolitan New York during Sandy (2012) Using Ensemble Storm Surge Simulations

Abstract Accurate prediction of storm surge is a difficult problem. Most forecast systems produce multiple possible forecasts depending on the variability in weather conditions, possible temperature levels, winds, etc. Ensemble modeling techniques have been developed with the stated purpose of obtaining the best forecast (in some specific sense) from the individual forecasts. In this work a statistical methodology of evaluating the performance of multiple ensemble forecasting models is developed. The methodology is applied to predicting storm surge in the New York Harbor area. Data from three hurricane events collected from multiple locations in the New York Bay area are used. The methodology produces three key findings for the particular test data used. First, it is found that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to those of any single forecast. Second, for the data used and the events under study the methodology did not interact with any event at any location studied. Third, based on the methodology results for the data studied selecting the best-performing ensemble models for each specific location may be possible.

Download Full-text

Extreme Climate Events, Household Decision-Making and Transitions in the Immediate Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy

Miscellanea Geographica ◽

10.1515/mgrsd-2017-0029 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 21 (4) ◽

pp. 139-150 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

William Solecki ◽

Robin Leichenko ◽

David Eisenhauer

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Large Scale ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Metropolitan Region ◽

Scale Transformation ◽

Household Decision ◽

Surge Flooding ◽

Term Response

AbstractIt is five years since Hurricane Sandy heavily damaged the New York- New Jersey Metropolitan region, and the fuller character of the long-term response can be better understood. The long-term response to Hurricane Sandy and the flooding risks it illustrated are set in myriad of individual and collective decisions taken during the time following the event. While the physical vulnerability of this region to storm surge flooding and climate change risks including sea level rise has been well-documented within the scholarly literature, Sandy’s impact placed decision-makingpost extreme events into the forefront of public and private discussions about the appropriate response. Some of the most fundamental choices were made by individual homeowners who houses were damaged and in some cases made uninhabitable following the storm. These individuals were forced to make decisions regarding where they would live and whether Sandy’s impact would result in their moving. In the disaster recovery and rebuilding context, these early household struggles about whether to leave or stay are often lost in the wider and longer narrative of recovery. To examine this early phase, this paper presents results of a research study that documented the ephemeral evidence of the initial phase of recovery in coastal communities that were heavily impacted by Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge and flooding. Hurricane Sandy and the immediate response to the storm created conditions for a potential large-scale transformation with respect to settlement of the coastal zone. In the paper, we examine and analyze survey and interview results of sixty-one residents and two dozen local stakeholders and practitioners to understand the stresses and transitions experienced by flooded households and the implications for the longer term resiliency of the communities in which they are located.

Download Full-text

The Study of the Impact for Coastal Engineering on High Water Level Induced by Storm Surges in Bohai Bay

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.94-96.810 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 94-96 ◽

pp. 810-814

Author(s):

Jin Shan Zhang ◽

Wei Sheng Zhang ◽

Chen Cheng ◽

Lin Yun Sun

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Large Scale ◽

Storm Surges ◽

High Water ◽

Coastal Engineering ◽

Cold Wave ◽

Bohai Bay ◽

Ocean Engineering ◽

The Impact

Bohai Bay is an semi-closed bay, the storm surge disaster is very serious in past. Now more and more large ocean engineering are built here, To study changes of storm surge induced by the construction of large-scale coastal engineering in Bohai Bay in present, 2D numerical storm surge model is established with large - medium - small model nested approach. The three most typical storms surges: 9216, 9711 and by cold wave in October 2003 are simulated in the condition of before and after implementation of planning projects in Bohai Bay. Changes of storm surge water level due to implementation of artificial projects are analysis in this paper.

Download Full-text

Study of Storm Surge Numerical Simulation in the Bohai Sea

Advanced Materials Research ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.989-994.2288 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 989-994 ◽

pp. 2288-2291 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yong Qiang Zhang ◽

Qian Lan Leng ◽

Ze Jian Hu ◽

Zi Chen Zhu ◽

Wan Jun Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Numerical Simulation ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Water Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Bohai Sea ◽

Current Field ◽

Extreme Water Level ◽

The Bohai Sea ◽

Astronomical Tide ◽

Significant Difference

In this paper, a numerical model of the coupling between astronomical tide and storm surge based on hydraulic model for estuary and coast (ECOM) is confirmed to be suitable for simulation of stormsurge in the Bohai Sea. The spatial distribution of extreme water level and storm current field caused by typhoons in October 2003 are simulated.It shows that extreme water level in deep water are smaller than shallow water and the spatial distribution of extreme water level is influenced by topography.Flow filed in Bohai Sea waters takes on an fluctuation in flow field, compensatory flow and other obvious features during storm surge, compared storm surge with astronomical tide, which is a significant difference in flow filed.

Download Full-text

Prediction of design water level due to storm surge at the Seogwipo Coastal Zone

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation ◽

10.9798/kosham.2012.12.2.255 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 255-261

Author(s):

Seung Rok Moon ◽

Ju Whan Kang ◽

Seon Jung Park ◽

Jae Seol Shim

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Coastal Zone ◽

Design Water Level

Download Full-text

Uncertainty in coastal flooding: modelling and visualisation

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-8390 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

John Maskell

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Return Period ◽

Flood Risk ◽

High Water ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Water Levels ◽

Tidal Range ◽

The Uk ◽

Flood Maps

Two case studies are considered in the UK, where uncertainty and drivers of coastal flood risk are explored through modelling and visualisations. Visualising the impact of uncertainty is a useful way of explaining the potential range of predicted or simulated flood risk to both expert and non-expert stakeholders.Significant flooding occurred in December 2013 and January 2017 at Hornsea on the UK East Coast, where storm surge levels and waves overtopped the town&#8217;s coastal defences. Uncertainty in the potential coastal flooding is visualised at Hornsea due to the range of uncertainty in the 100-year return period water level and in the calculated overtopping due to 3 m waves at the defences. The range of uncertainty in the simulated flooding is visualised through flood maps, where various combinations of the uncertainties decrease or increase the simulated inundated area by 58% and 82% respectively.Located at the mouth of the Mersey Estuary and facing the Irish Sea, New Brighton is affected by a large tidal range with potential storm surge and large waves. Uncertainty in the coastal flooding at the 100-year return period due to the combination of water levels and waves is explored through Monte-Carlo analysis and hydrodynamic modelling. Visualisation through flood maps shows that the inundation extent at New Brighton varies significantly for combined wave and surge events with a joint probability of 100 years, where the total flooded area ranges from 0 m2 to 10,300 m2. Waves are an important flood mechanism at New Brighton but are dependent on high water levels to impact the coastal defences and reduce the effective freeboard. The combination of waves and high-water levels at this return level not only determine the magnitude of the flood extent but also the spatial characteristics of the risk, whereby flooding of residential properties is dominated by overflow from high water levels, and commercial and leisure properties are affected by large waves that occur when the water level is relatively high at the defences.

Download Full-text

Storm Surge Impact to Subterranean Areas by Hurricane Sandy, and Lessons for Japan’s Storm Surge Countermeasures

Journal of Disaster Research ◽

10.20965/jdr.2016.p0274 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 274-284 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Joel Challender ◽

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Critical Infrastructure ◽

Human Life ◽

Public Information ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Recovery Phase ◽

Hurricane Sandy ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Eastern Seaboard

Hurricane Sandy caused critical damage to subterranean infrastructure in New York and also claimed 285 human lives across the Eastern Seaboard. The storm surge impact easily overwhelmed existing pumping systems, devastating power supply and paralyzing transport. Despite extensive preparations and pre-storm public information efforts, inundation and underground flooding caused causalities. The size of the disaster, sheer scope of damage and multifaceted response spanning the onset through to the recovery phase provides useful lessons for Japan, given its vulnerability to similar storm surges and flooding disasters, such as the Ise Bay Typhoon of 1959. Given this, a delegation composed of members of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) and Researchers from Japan’s Universities and Academic Societies working in disaster prevention conducted two surveys in 2013 and 2014. This involved hearing from emergency management officers in New York, Washington D.C and coastal communities about their experiences evacuating vulnerable residents and protecting critical infrastructure. The author of this paper was a member of both delegations. Based on fieldwork from these joint surveys and other materials, this paper outlines the scope of the damage that a storm of Sandy’s size was capable of inflicting, and looks at lessons applicable to Japan for preventing similar damage to infrastructure and human life in future storm surge events, and discusses how New York is attempting to become a more resilient city in preparation for the next flooding or storm surge disaster.

Download Full-text