Uncertainty in coastal flooding: modelling and visualisation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Maskell
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
High Water ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Flood Maps

<p>Two case studies are considered in the UK, where uncertainty and drivers of coastal flood risk are explored through modelling and visualisations. Visualising the impact of uncertainty is a useful way of explaining the potential range of predicted or simulated flood risk to both expert and non-expert stakeholders.</p><p>Significant flooding occurred in December 2013 and January 2017 at Hornsea on the UK East Coast, where storm surge levels and waves overtopped the town’s coastal defences. Uncertainty in the potential coastal flooding is visualised at Hornsea due to the range of uncertainty in the 100-year return period water level and in the calculated overtopping due to 3 m waves at the defences. The range of uncertainty in the simulated flooding is visualised through flood maps, where various combinations of the uncertainties decrease or increase the simulated inundated area by 58% and 82% respectively.</p><p>Located at the mouth of the Mersey Estuary and facing the Irish Sea, New Brighton is affected by a large tidal range with potential storm surge and large waves. Uncertainty in the coastal flooding at the 100-year return period due to the combination of water levels and waves is explored through Monte-Carlo analysis and hydrodynamic modelling. Visualisation through flood maps shows that the inundation extent at New Brighton varies significantly for combined wave and surge events with a joint probability of 100 years, where the total flooded area ranges from 0 m<sup>2</sup> to 10,300 m<sup>2</sup>. Waves are an important flood mechanism at New Brighton but are dependent on high water levels to impact the coastal defences and reduce the effective freeboard. The combination of waves and high-water levels at this return level not only determine the magnitude of the flood extent but also the spatial characteristics of the risk, whereby flooding of residential properties is dominated by overflow from high water levels, and commercial and leisure properties are affected by large waves that occur when the water level is relatively high at the defences.</p>

scholarly journals STORM SURGE FORECASTING METHODS IN ENCLOSED SEAS

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
P.F. Hamblin
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Large Lakes ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Storm Surge Forecasting

Storm surges in enclosed seas although generally not as large in amplitude as their oceanic counterparts are nonetheless of considerable importance when low lying shoreline profiles, shallow water depth, and favourable geographical orientation to storm winds occur together. High water may result in shoreline innundation and in enhanced shoreline erosion. Conversely low water levels are hazardous to navigation. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the problem of storm surge forecasting in enclosed basins with emphasis on automated operational procedures. In general, operational forecasting methods must be based on standard forecast parameters, require a minimum of computational effort in the preparation of the forecast, must be applicable to lakes of different geometry and to any point on the shore, and to be able to resolve water level changes on an hourly basis to 10 cm in the case of high water level excursions associated with large lakes and less than that for smaller lakes. Particular physical effects arising in lakes which make these constraints difficult to fulfill are the reflections of resurgences of water levels arising from lateral boundaries, the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer and the presence of such subsynoptic disturbances as squall lines and travelling pressure jumps.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF DESIGN WATER LEVELS AT THE EMS-DOLLARD ESTUARY CONSIDERING THE EFFECT OF A STORM SURGE BARRIER

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald Herrling ◽  
Heiko Knaack ◽  
Ralf Kaiser ◽  
Hanz Dieter Niemeyer
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Safety Margin ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Wind Velocities

In the Ems-Dollard estuary at the southern North Sea coast a revaluation of design water levels along the German dykes has become necessary, since the safety margin for sea level rise was increased by 25 cm due to a decision of the Lower Saxon Ministry for Environment and Climate Protection. The upstream part of the estuary is protected against high storm surges by a storm surge barrier. The closure of the barrier effects downstream surge water levels due to partial reflection. Deterministic-mathematical modeling is applied to evaluate design water levels and design wave run-up. Three severe storm surge events have been hindcasted by a cascade of three hierarchical models from the Continental Shelf over the German Bight into the area of interest. The models are forced by non-stationary and spatially varying data of atmospheric pressure, wind velocities and directions available of meteorological model investigations. The verification of the storm surge model with water level observations yields good agreements. With respect to legal boundary conditions, the single-value-method is applied to determine the highest expected high water level at Emden. Starting from this target water level, the wind velocities in the meteorological boundary conditions are increased with the aim to increase the surge level at the coast and to match the predetermined design water level at Emden. The responding water levels in the Ems-Dollard estuary assign the new design water levels.

Study on the Extreme High Water Levels and Wave Heights of Different Return Periods in Laizhou Bay, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunyan Zhou ◽  
Jinhai Zheng ◽  
Jisheng Zhang ◽  
Xiaoying Fu
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Current Velocity ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
River Mouth ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Laizhou Bay ◽  
Distribution Method

Based on good simulation results during storm events in 2009, MIKE21 was used to study the extreme water level, current velocity and wave height in Laizhou Bay, China. 95 extreme weather processes during 1988–2012 were simulated. For each event, coupled hydrodynamic and wave modules of MIKE21 was chosen to calculate the maximum water level and current velocity. The Gumbel distribution method, commonly used for estimating return-period values of marine hydrodynamic variables, is adopted in this study. The extreme high water level of 50-year return period in Laizhou Bay can reach 2.6–3.8 m; and that of 100-year return period can be as high as 2.8–4.6 m. The 50-year and 100-year return-period values of current velocity can reach up to about 2.8 m/s and 3.2 m/s respectively, both around the Yellow River mouth. Wave height strongly depends on water depth, water level rise, wind speed and direction. The results provide parameter reference for structure design in the Laizhou Bay.

Alteration in tides and flood dynamics caused by channel deepening:  case study of the Saint Johns River, Florida

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Talke ◽  
David Jay ◽  
Ramin Familkhalili
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
River Estuary ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Tidal Range ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Length Changes ◽  
Hurricane Irma

<p>In this contribution, we show that channel deepening can amplifiy tide and storm surge--while simultaneously decreasing the river slope during both normal conditions and during floods.  We investigate the Saint Johns River Estuary, Florida, an example of a hyposynchronous, strongly frictional estuary with a landward decay in tidal amplitudes. Records since the 1890s and numerical modeling show that tidal range doubled in Jacksonville, Florida (40 km from coast), while tidal discharge approximately doubled everywhere. Overall, an increase in channel depth from 5 to 10m drove the observed changes, with width and length changes comparatively minor factors. Tidal amplitude evolved in a spatially variable way--negligible at the coast and inland, maximal 20-30km from the ocean.  The change in the M2 constituent is approximated by the equation x * exp(mu*x), where x is the distance from the ocean and mu is a damping coefficient that depends on depth, drag coefficient, and other system properties.  The observed tidal evolution is similar to storm surge:  Numerical modeling of hurricane Irma (Sept. 2017) under 1898 and 2017 bathymetric conditions confirms that both tidal and storm surge amplitudes have increased over time, with a maximum change about 20-25km from the inlet. Nonetheless, hurricane Irma produced overall high water levels in the historical bathymetric configuration. The reason is that the mean water level slope required to move water out of the modern estuary has decreased. An analytical model confirms that reduced slope is caused primarily by channel deepening.  However, greater tides and storm surge imply an increased vulnerability to a worst-case scenario hurricane. </p>

Lake and inland dunes as interconnected Systems: The story of Lake Tresssee and an adjacent dune field (Schleswig-Holstein, North Germany)

The Holocene ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 095968362098168
Author(s):  
Christian Stolz ◽  
Magdalena Suchora ◽  
Irena A Pidek ◽  
Alexander Fülling
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Bronze Age ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
High Water ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Dune Field ◽  
The North ◽  
Sand Drift

The specific aim of the study was to investigate how four adjacent geomorphological systems – a lake, a dune field, a small alluvial fan and a slope system – responded to the same impacts. Lake Tresssee is a shallow lake in the North of Germany (Schleswig-Holstein). During the Holocene, the lake’s water surface declined drastically, predominately as a consequence of human impact. The adjacent inland dune field shows several traces of former sand drift events. Using 30 new radiocarbon ages and the results of 16 OSL samples, this study aims to create a new timeline tracing the interaction between lake and dunes, as well, as how both the lake and the dunes reacted to environmental changes. The water level of the lake is presumed to have peaked during the period before the Younger Dryas (YD; start at 10.73 ka BC). After the Boreal period (OSL age 8050 ± 690 BC) the level must have undergone fluctuations triggered by climatic events and the first human influences. The last demonstrable high water level was during the Late Bronze Age (1003–844 cal. BC). The first to the 9th century AD saw slightly shrinking water levels, and more significant ones thereafter. In the 19th century, the lake area was artificially reduced to a minimum by the human population. In the dunes, a total of seven different phases of sand drift were demonstrated for the last 13,000 years. It is one of the most precisely dated inland-dune chronologies of Central Europe. The small alluvial fan took shape mainly between the 13th and 17th centuries AD. After 1700 cal. BC (Middle Bronze Age), and again during the sixth and seventh centuries AD, we find enhanced slope activity with the formation of Holocene colluvia.

scholarly journals Distribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Rulent ◽  
Lucy M. Bricheno ◽  
Mattias J. A. Green ◽  
Ivan D. Haigh ◽  
Huw Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
High Tide ◽  
High Water ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
High Flood ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Total Water Level ◽  
Tidal Stage

Abstract. The interaction between waves, surges and astronomical tides can lead to high coastal total water level (TWL), which can in turn lead to coastal flooding. Here, a high resolution (1.5 km) simulation from a UK-focused regional coupled environmental prediction system is used to investigate the extreme events of winter 2013/4 around the UK and Irish coasts. The aim is to analyse the spatial distribution of coastal TWL and its components during this period by assessing 1- the relative contribution of different TWL components around the coast, 2- how extreme waves, surges and tide interacted and if they occurred simultaneously 3- if this has implications in defining the severity of coastal hazard conditions. The TWL components’ coastal distribution in winter 2013/4 was not constant in space, impacting differently over different regions. High (> 90th percentile) waves and surges occurred simultaneously at any tidal stage, including high tide (7.7 % of cases), but more often over the flood tide. During periods of high flood risk a hazard proxy, defined as the sum of the sea surface height and half the significant wave height, at least doubled from average over ¾ of the coast. These results have important implications for the risk management sector.

The effect of ground water-level on the yield of some common crops on a fen peat soil

1958 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 243-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. H. Nicholson ◽  
D. H. Firth
Keyword(s):  
Ground Water ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Peat Soil ◽  
Good Condition ◽  
High Water ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Ground Water Level ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Soil Moisture Deficit ◽  
Moisture Deficit

An account is given of a field experiment in the control of ground water-level in a Fen peat soil, together with its results on the yields of crops in a six-course rotation.The seasonal variations in rainfall are presented in terms of potential evaporation and soil moisture deficit. The effect of the water-level on the moistness of the soil above it is indicated. Even in a wet summer, drying was perceptible within 18–20 in. of the ground water-level between successive falls of rain.The fluctuations of the ground water-levels are discussed. Those of the high water-levels were chiefly due to individual incidences of rain causing rises short in duration, but sufficient in the case of water-levels within 20 in. of the surface to cause total waterlogging and surface ponding. Those of the deep water-levels were most influenced by evaporation, with steady and persistent falls during any rain-free period.The deterioration of the physical condition of the soil over high water-levels is shown in the result of sieving tests. In 6 years the loss of tilth over waterlevels within 20 in. of the surface was very marked and was discernible over those as low as 30 in.The possibilities of effectively using high ground water-levels occasionally in soils in good condition are shown by the results with celery and potatoes.

scholarly journals Feedback Mechanism in Bifurcating River Systems: the Effect on Water-Level Sensitivity

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1915
Author(s):  
Matthijs R.A. Gensen ◽  
Jord J. Warmink ◽  
Fredrik Huthoff ◽  
Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
River System ◽  
Feedback Mechanism ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
River Systems ◽  
Water Level Variations ◽  
System Water ◽  
Discharge Distribution ◽  
Single Branch

Accurate and reliable estimates of water levels are essential to assess flood risk in river systems. In current practice, uncertainties involved and the sensitivity of water levels to these uncertainties are studied in single-branch rivers, while many rivers in deltas consist of multiple distributaries. In a bifurcating river, a feedback mechanism exists between the downstream water levels and the discharge distribution at the bifurcation. This paper aims to quantify the sensitivity of water levels to main channel roughness in a bifurcating river system. Water levels are modelled for various roughness scenarios under a wide range of discharge conditions using a one-dimensional hydraulic model. The results show that the feedback mechanism reduces the sensitivity of water levels to local changes of roughness in comparison to the single-branch river. However, in the smaller branches of the system, water-level variations induced by the changes in discharge distribution can exceed the water-level variations of the single-branch river. Therefore, water levels throughout the entire system are dominated by the conditions in the largest branch. As the feedback mechanism is important, the river system should be considered as one interconnected system in river maintenance of rivers, flood-risk analyses, and future planning of river engineering works.

scholarly journals The Role of Mean Sea Level Annual Cycle on Extreme Water Levels Along European Coastline

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3419
Author(s):  
Tomás Fernández-Montblanc ◽  
Jesús Gómez-Enri ◽  
Paolo Ciavola
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

The knowledge of extreme total water levels (ETWLs) and the derived impact, coastal flooding and erosion, is crucial to face the present and future challenges exacerbated in European densely populated coastal areas. Based on 24 years (1993–2016) of multimission radar altimetry, this paper investigates the contribution of each water level component: tide, surge and annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (MMSL) to the ETWLs. It focuses on the contribution of the annual variation of MMSL in the coastal flooding extreme events registered in a European database. In microtidal areas (Black, Baltic and Mediterranean Sea), the MMSL contribution is mostly larger than tide, and it can be at the same order of magnitude of the surge. In meso and macrotidal areas, the MMSL contribution is <20% of the total water level, but larger (>30%) in the North Sea. No correlation was observed between the average annual cycle of monthly mean sea level (AMMSL) and coastal flooding extreme events (CFEEs) along the European coastal line. Positive correlations of the component variance of MMSL with the relative frequency of CFEEs extend to the Central Mediterranean (r = 0.59), North Sea (r = 0.60) and Baltic Sea (r = 0.75). In the case of positive MMSL anomalies, the correlation expands to the Bay of Biscay and northern North Atlantic (at >90% of statistical significance). The understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of a combination of all the components of the ETWLs shall improve the preparedness and coastal adaptation measures to reduce the impact of coastal flooding.

scholarly journals High accuracy coastal flood mapping for Norway using LiDAR data

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristian Breili ◽  
Matthew James Ross Simpson ◽  
Erlend Klokkervold ◽  
Oda Roaldsdotter Ravndal
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Mapping Method ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Elevation Data

Abstract. Using new high accuracy Light Detection and Ranging elevation data we generate coastal flooding maps for Norway. Thus far, we have mapped ~ 80 % of the coast, for which we currently have data of sufficient accuracy to perform our analysis. Although Norway is generally at low risk from sea-level rise largely owing to its steep topography, the maps presented here show that on local scales, many parts of the coast are potentially vulnerable to flooding. There is a considerable amount of infrastructure at risk along the relatively long and complicated coastline. Nationwide we identify a total area of 400 km2, 105,000 buildings, and 510 km of roads that are at risk of flooding from a 200 year storm-surge event at present. These numbers will increase to 610 km2, 137,000, and 1340 km with projected sea-level rise to 2090 (95th percentile of RCP8.5 as recommended in planning). We find that some of our results are likely biased high owing to erroneous mapping (at least for lower water levels close to the tidal datum which delineates the coastline). A comparison of control points from different terrain types indicates that the elevation model has a root mean square error of 0.26 m and is the largest source of uncertainty in our mapping method. The coastal flooding maps and associated statistics are freely available, and alongside the development of coastal climate services, will help communicate the risks of sea-level rise and storm surge to stakeholders. This will in turn aid coastal management and climate adaption work in Norway.

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