scholarly journals Ensemble-Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 1921-1936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Salighehdar ◽  
Ziwen Ye ◽  
Mingzhe Liu ◽  
Ionut Florescu ◽  
Alan F. Blumberg
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Bay Area ◽  
Temperature Levels ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Specific Sense ◽  
Stated Purpose

Abstract Accurate prediction of storm surge is a difficult problem. Most forecast systems produce multiple possible forecasts depending on the variability in weather conditions, possible temperature levels, winds, etc. Ensemble modeling techniques have been developed with the stated purpose of obtaining the best forecast (in some specific sense) from the individual forecasts. In this work a statistical methodology of evaluating the performance of multiple ensemble forecasting models is developed. The methodology is applied to predicting storm surge in the New York Harbor area. Data from three hurricane events collected from multiple locations in the New York Bay area are used. The methodology produces three key findings for the particular test data used. First, it is found that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to those of any single forecast. Second, for the data used and the events under study the methodology did not interact with any event at any location studied. Third, based on the methodology results for the data studied selecting the best-performing ensemble models for each specific location may be possible.

The “Japanese Turn” in Fine Dining in the United States, 1980–2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-54
Author(s):  
Samuel H. Yamashita
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
San Francisco Bay Area ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
Further Training ◽  
Bay Area ◽  
Wide Acceptance

In the 1970s, Japanese cooks began to appear in the kitchens of nouvelle cuisine chefs in France for further training, with scores more arriving in the next decades. Paul Bocuse, Alain Chapel, Joël Robuchon, and other leading French chefs started visiting Japan to teach, cook, and sample Japanese cuisine, and ten of them eventually opened restaurants there. In the 1980s and 1990s, these chefs' frequent visits to Japan and the steady flow of Japanese stagiaires to French restaurants in Europe and the United States encouraged a series of changes that I am calling the “Japanese turn,” which found chefs at fine-dining establishments in Los Angeles, New York City, and later the San Francisco Bay Area using an ever-widening array of Japanese ingredients, employing Japanese culinary techniques, and adding Japanese dishes to their menus. By the second decade of the twenty-first century, the wide acceptance of not only Japanese ingredients and techniques but also concepts like umami (savory tastiness) and shun (seasonality) suggest that Japanese cuisine is now well known to many American chefs.

scholarly journals Advanced Flight Planning and the Benefit of In-Flight Aircraft Trajectory Optimization

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1383
Author(s):  
Judith Rosenow ◽  
Martin Lindner ◽  
Joachim Scheiderer
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Traffic Management ◽  
Trajectory Optimization ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Aircraft Trajectory

The implementation of Trajectory-Based Operations, invented by the Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research program SESAR, enables airlines to fly along optimized waypoint-less trajectories and accordingly to significantly increase the sustainability of the air transport system in a business with increasing environmental awareness. However, unsteady weather conditions and uncertain weather forecasts might induce the necessity to re-optimize the trajectory during the flight. By considering a re-optimization of the trajectory during the flight they further support air traffic control towards achieving precise air traffic flow management and, in consequence, an increase in airspace and airport capacity. However, the re-optimization leads to an increase in the operator and controller’s task loads which must be balanced with the benefit of the re-optimization. From this follows that operators need a decision support under which circumstances and how often a trajectory re-optimization should be carried out. Local numerical weather service providers issue hourly weather forecasts for the coming hour. Such weather data sets covering three months were used to re-optimize a daily A320 flight from Seattle to New York every hour and to calculate the effects of this re-optimization on fuel consumption and deviation from the filed path. Therefore, a simulation-based trajectory optimization tool was used. Fuel savings between 0.5% and 7% per flight were achieved despite minor differences in wind speed between two consecutive weather forecasts in the order of 0.5 m s−1. The calculated lateral deviations from the filed path within 1 nautical mile were always very small. Thus, the method could be easily implemented in current flight operations. The developed performance indicators could help operators to evaluate the re-optimization and to initiate its activation as a new flight plan accordingly.

THE MAKING OF A PHYSICIAN

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-268
Author(s):  
C. P. Darby
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Educational Opportunity ◽  
State University ◽  
University Of South Carolina ◽  
Cultural Aspects ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Optimal Functioning ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Medical University

We must be aware that freedom from organic disease alone can not be our goal. The optimal functioning of the individual must be our aim, and that it occur in an environment conducive to a fuller life. We must be aware that man does not live by bread alone, nor by his antihypertensive pill alone. We must be citizens of the community, helping to make it a better place for the raising of our children, for a fuller educational opportunity, for the development of the arts and other cultural aspects which help raise man above the level of animal life. Thus, the making of a doctor almost begins at his mother's knee. Nurtured further by society and its educational and Cultural institutions, he is finally given a privilege by society, to act in a responsible way in furthering the health, both physical and mental, of those he calls his patients. (Delivered to medical students and faculty, School of Medicine, University of South Dakota, May 1976 by Mitchell I. Rubin, MD, Emeritus Professor of Pediatrics, State University of New York at Buffalo, and Consultant in Pediatrics, Medical University of South Carolina).

THE TEN-STATE NUTRITION SURVEY: A PEDIATRIC PERSPECTIVE

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1973 ◽  
Vol 51 (6) ◽  
pp. 1095-1099
Author(s):  
Charles U. Lowe ◽  
Gilbert B. Forbes ◽  
Stanley Garn ◽  
George M. Owen ◽  
Nathan J. Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
The United States ◽  
Food Utilization ◽  
Nutrition Survey ◽  
Dietary Recall ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
The Individual

In 1967 the 90th Congress of the United States attached an amendment to the Partnership for Health Act requiring the Secretary of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare to undertake a survey of "the incidence and location of serious hunger and malnutrition–in the United States." In response to the legislative mandate the Ten-State Nutrition Survey was conducted during the years 1968 through 1970. The sample was selected from urban and rural families living in the following ten states: New York, Massachusetts, Michigan, California, Washington, Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana, Texas, and South Carolina. The families selected were those living in some of the census enumeration districts that made up the lowest economic quartiles of their respective states at the time of the 1960 census. During the eight years after the 1960 census the social and economic characteristics found in some of the individual enumeration districts had changed, so that there was a significant numer of families in the surveys with incomes well above the lowest income quartile. Thus, it was possible in analyzing results to make some comparisons on an economic basis. Thirty thousand families were identified in the selection process; 23,846 of these participated in the survey. Data regarding more than 80,000 individuals were obtained through interviews and 40,847 of these individuals were examined. The survey included the following: extensive demographic information on each of the participating families; information regarding food utilization of the family; a 24-hour dietary recall for infants up to 36 months of age, children 10 to 16 years of age, pregnant and lactating women, and individuals over 60 years of age.

Abstract 216: Left Ventricular Enlargement and Heart Failure Events: Is Bigger Better?

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Farbod Raiszadeh ◽  
Neeraja Yedlapati ◽  
Ileana L Piña ◽  
Daniel M Spevack
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
New York ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Systolic Heart Failure ◽  
Heart Association ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Left Ventricular Volumes ◽  
End Diastolic Volume ◽  
New York Heart Association ◽  
The Individual

Background: Since stroke volume (SV) is a function of ejection fraction (EF) and end-diastolic volume (EDV) (SV = EF x EDV), we hypothesized that increased EDV may be advantageous in systolic heart failure (HF), allowing the left ventricle to supply increased cardiac output. Methods: Echocardiograms from 968 consecutive patients seen in our hospital’s HF clinic were reviewed. Left ventricular volumes were measured both at end systole and end diastole using the bi-plane Simpson’s method and were indexed to body surface area. EF was calculated using (EDV-ESV)/EDV. Dates of subsequent HF events (death or admission for HF exacerbation) were obtained from our database. Results: Systolic HF (EF < 50%) was found in 649 of the study subjects. Increased SV index was associated with increased EDV index. The strength of this association varied with EF, Figure. In a bivariate Cox regression model, lower SV index and higher EDV index were each independent predictors of HF events. Increase in EDV by 50 cc was associated with a 20% increase in HF events, p<0.001. Decrease in SVI by 5 cc was associated with 5% increase in HF events, p<0.001. These associations were limited to those with systolic HF. The associations between both EDVI and SVI and HF events were not confounded by patient age, sex and New York Heart Association Class. Conclusion: Increased EDV index was independently associated with increased HF events, indicating that LV enlargement in HF is not favorable. These findings underscore the individual contributions of the components of EF (SV and EDV) in predicting HF outcomes.

Febrile Convulsions, by J. Gordon Millichap, M.D., M.R.C.P. New York: The Macmillan Company, 1968, 239 pp., $7.95

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1968 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 381-382
Author(s):  
Randolph K. Byers
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Febrile Seizures ◽  
Cerebral Injury ◽  
Extensive Review ◽  
Cerebral Disease ◽  
Febrile Convulsions ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Brain ◽  
Made In

This rather modest-looking monograph deals not only with the large experiences of the author in relation to febrile seizures, but also presents an extensive review of the modern relevant literature (266 references in the bibliography). The most useful point made in the book, it seems to me, is that febrile convulsions are just that: i.e., convulsions coinciding with fever, the result of illness not directly involving the brain or its meninges. Such a seizure may be an isolated occurrence in the life of the individual, or it may recur a few times with fever; it may be the first sign of idiopathic chronic epilepsy, or it may be evidence of more or less apparent cerebral injury of a static sort; or, it may be the presenting symptom heralding progressive cerebral disease.

scholarly journals La responsabilidad del autor en un contexto de crisis: Kirmen Uribe y el compromiso con la memoria

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
María Jesús Nafría Fernández
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Historical Memory ◽  
The Individual

En uno de sus poemas, Kirmen Uribe escribe: «Y es que nadie es sólo para uno mismo» (2010: 201). Eso mismo sucede con los recuerdos: una vez que se comparten, ya pasan a pertenecer a los demás. En sus dos primeras novelas, Bilbao-New York-Bilbao y Lo que mueve el mundo, el autor recurre a su memoria y a los recuerdos de los otros para la construcción de la historia. Fusiona lo individual y lo colectivo con un fin determinado: que lo vivido no se pierda en el olvido y sirva para aprender en el presente. Su compromiso con la sociedad por un mundo mejor queda reflejado en sus palabras, los temas de sus obras, tanto en verso como en prosa. En esta ocasión, su lucha es con la memoria histórica, y así lo vamos a demostrar analizando los recursos que utiliza para ello, tales como la autoficción, la inclusión documental, la investigación de autor o la utilización de la lengua como símbolo.In one of his poems, Kirmen Uribe declares: «No one is meant only for themselves» (2010: 201). Same as with memories. In his first two novels: Bilbao-New York-Bilbao and Lo que mueve el mundo, the author appeals to his own memory and the memories of others in order to build the story. He blends the individual and the collective with a particular purpose. His commitment to society and to a better world is clearly reflected in his words and the themes of his works in both prose and poetry. In this case, Uribe’s struggle is with historical memory, and we will here analyze the resources he uses in that struggle including: autofiction, documentary inclusion, the author’s own investigations or use of language as a symbol.

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