scholarly journals The Exposure of French and South Korean Firm Stock Returns to Exchange Rates and the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 154
Author(s):  
Willem Thorbecke
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
South Korean ◽  
French Economy ◽  
Korean Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Korean Firm ◽  
Better Than

Rogoff predicted that the U.S. dollar will depreciate and that exchange rate volatility will return. The coronavirus crisis has also roiled the world economy. This paper investigates the exposure of French and Korean firm stock returns to exchange rate appreciations and the pandemic. Both France and Korea are major exporters, but Korea has managed the crisis better than France. The results indicate that Korean firms have come through the pandemic better than French firms. The findings also indicate that the Korean economy is less exposed to appreciations than the French economy. This paper concludes with suggestions to increase firms’ resilience to these shocks.

scholarly journals International Trade in Goods and Services: Aspects of Monetary and Financial Relations

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
E.V. Potekhina ◽  
◽  
A.D. Efremova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Division ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
National Economies

the article examines such topical problems of the world economy as the peculiarities of interaction between the subjects of the world economy, international trade, international monetary and financial relations, the role of the exchange rate for national economies. The issues of the national economy of the Russian Federation and the degree of the country’s participation in the international division of labor and its openness are considered. In this paper, using the example of Russia, the export of goods and services is analyzed, its relationship with a number of factors (exchange rate and oil price), where the main tools are methods of statistical and econometric analysis.

Monetary Policy in the Conditions of Influence of Negative Factors of the World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ольга Николайчук ◽  
Olga Nikolaychuk ◽  
Д. Кадырова ◽  
D. Kadyrova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Negative Factors

The article analyzes the monetary policy in the context of exogenous shocks of the external sector. The Bank of Russia and Rosstat use official statistics for 2000–2018. The parameters of the action of negative factors of the world economy apply the conditions of world trade and changes in the exchange rate of national currencies. The graphic form analyzes the susceptibility of macroeconomic indicators to changes in the external market and their dependence on fluctuations in energy prices. The influence of consumer prices and inflation on the monetary policy of the Central Bank is considered. The analysis allows us to conclude about the relationship of the effect of events from processes in the global market. It was concluded that, despite these risks, there are optimal ways of conducting monetary policy, which remain the targeting of inflation and the effect of the floating exchange rate regime of the national currency. For effective results in reducing the dependence of macroeconomic processes on the impact of external shocks, coordinated activities of all branches of economic power, and their effective macro-prudential and fiscal policies are important.

Introducing Exchange-Rate Equations Into a World Econometric Model

1987 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 57-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Wren-Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Rate Equations ◽  
Rate System ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
World Economic ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Forecasts

In this Review the Institute's world economic forecasts are for the first time produced with the aid of a large quarterly econometric model. The general features of this model are described in an Appendix to the World Economy chapter in this Review. The model is based on the WEP (World Economic Prospects) model which has been operated and developed by economists in HM Treasury for more than a decade. However, exchange rates in WEP are exogenous, and this article discusses the estimation of an exchange-rate system for the model, and its implications in terms of overall model properties.

scholarly journals The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (Sspecial Edition) ◽  
pp. 59-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew McCartney
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Economic Liberalization ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
The World

Pakistan and India were part of that wave of economic liberalization among developing countries from the late 1980s. This paper is about one aspect of that failure to ‘produce the economic magic’, in Pakistan. Pakistan substantially liberalized its international trade after the late 1980s, and contrary to some views managed its exchange rate in an exceptionally clear sighted and prudent manner. In response, Pakistan never experienced sustained and rapid export led-growth. In fact so disappointing was the performance of exports that Pakistan’s degree of integration with the world economy was little higher in 2015 than it had been in 1990. This paper first examines the exciting promise followed by the lackluster performance of trade liberalization. It establishes evidence that the exchange rate was managed in a way that should have helped a more liberalized trading regime contribute to economic growth. The paper explores wider evidence linking trade liberalization to economic growth and argues that the positive relationship is at best only a contingent one. Those contingent factors that have failed to support the positive link between trade liberalization and economic growth in Pakistan are investment, tax revenue, and upgrading/learning.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 30-58
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
North America ◽  
Deleterious Effect ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Scale ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Uk

The early part of 1995 saw considerable turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, resulting in significant currency realignments. Relative exchange-rate patterns have not changed very much in the last three months, and the effects of the real exchange-rate realignment are beginning to be felt, with growth slowing in those countries whose currencies appreciated, and inflationary pressures building up in some of the countries that depreciated. In addition to the destabilising effects of the realignment, signs are beginning to emerge that growth is slowing of its own accord throughout the OECD, particularly in North America. The recovery also appears to have become somewhat more hesitant than we had anticipated in Germany and the UK, although other European countries are continuing to expand at above trend rates. The fragility of the Japanese financial system has been clear for some time, but the potential scale of bad debts is only now becoming known, and this appears to be having a deleterious effect on both financial and consumer confidence.

The World Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 28-57
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It is now quite clear that growth slowed in Europe around the end of 1995, and that it remained low in the first quarter of 1996. However, the most recent information suggests that the slowdown is likely to prove temporary. Early indicators for the second quarter suggest that growth has begun to accelerate, much in line with our forecast published in May. We have made no further adjustment to our forecast for EU wide growth this year, with output still expected to rise by around 1½ per cent this year and around 2¾–3 per cent next year. Recent exchange rate developments should help support demand, as the D-mark, the French franc and other currencies within the D-mark bloc have all depreciated against the dollar in the last few months. A number of economies in Europe appear to have some spare capacity, and can increase output, whilst the US is operating at or above capacity, and a reduction in demand should ease incipient inflationary pressures rather more than it reduces output. The depreciation of the D-mark has been associated with a loosening of monetary policy, with short-term interest rates in Germany being a full point lower than they were a year ago. French short-term interest rates have fallen much more, reflecting the disappearance of a significant risk premium last year. The loosening of policy was timely, and should help offset the deflationary pressures that have come from a slowdown in stock accumulation in both France and Germany and from low investment, especially in Germany.

Exchange rate volatility and US commodity trade with the rest of the world

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 511-532 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee ◽  
Zohre Ardalani ◽  
Marzieh Bolhasani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
The World

Chapter II. The World Economy

1988 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23-39
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Fiona Eastwood
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Better Than

Between June and July the dollar rose by around 5 per cent against the other major currencies, despite central bank intervention to hold the dollar down. There have been two major factors behind this strength. Firstly, the US trade figures improved in April and May and were considerably better than the market had anticipated. This reflected both some reduction in the volume and value of imports and an increase in the level of exports. Sentiment towards the US dollar has also been affected by the strength of growth in the other major industrial economies.

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