The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 153 ◽  
pp. 30-58
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
North America ◽  
Deleterious Effect ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
Potential Scale ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Uk

The early part of 1995 saw considerable turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, resulting in significant currency realignments. Relative exchange-rate patterns have not changed very much in the last three months, and the effects of the real exchange-rate realignment are beginning to be felt, with growth slowing in those countries whose currencies appreciated, and inflationary pressures building up in some of the countries that depreciated. In addition to the destabilising effects of the realignment, signs are beginning to emerge that growth is slowing of its own accord throughout the OECD, particularly in North America. The recovery also appears to have become somewhat more hesitant than we had anticipated in Germany and the UK, although other European countries are continuing to expand at above trend rates. The fragility of the Japanese financial system has been clear for some time, but the potential scale of bad debts is only now becoming known, and this appears to be having a deleterious effect on both financial and consumer confidence.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 26-38
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Minor Extent

The recovery in the OECD area gathered pace in the second quarter, when its total GDP probably increased by as much as 1 per cent. The rise was, however, heavily concentrated in North America and particularly the US. There may well have been a slight fall in Western Europe, where the level of industrial production hardly changed and increases in gross product in West Germany and, to a minor extent, in France were outweighed by falls in Italy and (according to the expenditure measure) the UK.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 27-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
East Asia ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Regional Impact ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
The Uk

Indications from the first half of the year suggested that the present cyclical expansion was starting to slow in much of the OECD. The pace of activity moderated particularly sharply in North America. Canadian GDP fell slightly in the second quarter of the year and inventory levels rose considerably. Trade growth was also lower than expected, although this partially reflected the regional impact of recent developments in Mexico. Within Europe, GDP growth slowed in the UK, France and Italy, although growth proved unexpectedly robust in a number of the smaller economies, particularly Ireland, Sweden and Finland. Output also continued to grow sharply in Australia and South East Asia.

The World Economy

1992 ◽  
Vol 139 ◽  
pp. 27-45
Author(s):  
R. Anderton ◽  
R. Barrell ◽  
G. Caporale
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Recent Information ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The US, the UK and Canada all experienced recessions in 1991, whilst in Germany and Japan activity began to slow markedly. Most commentators, including the Institute, underestimated the length and severity of the recessions being experienced by the UK and the US. Data for the third and fourth quarters, along with recent information on expectations and on consumer confidence, have caused us to revise down both our estimate of growth experienced in 1991 and our forecast for growth in 1992. The summary details of our forecast are given in table 1.

The World Economy

1995 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 30-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Bretton Woods ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Output Gaps

Output growth throughout the OECD has been rising this year, and several economies including the US, Canada and the UK look as if are reaching their cyclical peak. Other economies, such as France, Italy and Spain, are still operating below capacity, but have been growing rapidly enough to prevent output gaps widening. Output gaps in Europe appear to be small, and Barrell and Sefton (below) calculate they could be approaching zero. This upturn in activity has been unlike most in the post-Bretton Woods era, as inflation has not, until recently, begun to rise. Inflation in the US was, it appears, lower in 1994 than in the previous four years, despite a strong output recovery. The appreciation of the yen, and the subsequent recession have, of course, kept Japanese inflation low. However, exchange-rate movements are part of a process of ‘sharing’ world inflation, and over the past three years there has been little to share. For example, inflation in Europe has been lower than we anticipated 18 months ago, even though a slowdown in activity was already apparent then.

The World Economy

1994 ◽  
Vol 150 ◽  
pp. 29-61
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Julian Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
North America ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Moderate Pace ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sustained Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The prospects look good for either strong recovery or sustained growth of output throughout most of the OECD in 1995. The UK, US and Canada have grown at above trend rates this year after entering recessions in 1990 or 1991. Continental Europe followed them into recession in 1992 or 1993. These developments prompted a worldwide loosening of monetary policy which began in North America, where real short-term interest rates fell to around zero in 1992. The loosening of monetary policy in Europe (and the UK) came later and real short-term interest rates remain high at around 3 per cent, suggesting that the European upturn will be at a more moderate pace than elsewhere. This policy relaxation is a significant driving force behind the strength of output in the forecast.

Economic Prospects and Policy Recommendations

1995 ◽  
Vol 152 ◽  
pp. 3-5
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The World ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Uk

Economic conditions continue to improve, with growth at a satisfactory rate and inflation subdued, whether one considers the UK in particular or the world economy in aggregate. This cheerful prospect may be threatened however by financial developments, with some turbulence in foreign exchange markets and uncertainty about the future of monetary policy. In the UK this uncertainty is particularly acute following the surprise decision not to raise short-term interest rates in May.

The World Economy

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 8-36
Keyword(s):  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Parity Exchange ◽  
Long Term Trend

Global economic activity strengthened considerably in the first half of this year, helped by a rebound in trade volumes and a marked recovery in industrial production. Although the rapid growth experienced in the early part of the year has faltered, there was still broadly-based, if somewhat subdued, growth in activity in all the major economies in the second quarter of the year, with GDP rising by between 0.3-0.6 per cent in the US, the UK, the Euro Area and Japan. For the year as a whole we continue to expect global GDP growth (measured at Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates) to be around 2¾ per cent, which whilst below long-term trend levels, would be a welcome improvement on the growth of under 2¼ per cent seen in 2001.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 27-39
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

In Western Europe GDP appears to have fallen in the second quarter, mainly because of the strikes in West Germany and the UK. Growth in North America and to a lesser extent in Japan was slowing down but still fast enough to keep the total output of the OECD area on its upward course. For the first half of the year this was probably about 2½ per cent up on the second half of 1983 and 5 per cent up on the first half.

scholarly journals International Trade in Goods and Services: Aspects of Monetary and Financial Relations

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 40-49
Author(s):  
E.V. Potekhina ◽  
◽  
A.D. Efremova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
International Division ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The World ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
National Economies

the article examines such topical problems of the world economy as the peculiarities of interaction between the subjects of the world economy, international trade, international monetary and financial relations, the role of the exchange rate for national economies. The issues of the national economy of the Russian Federation and the degree of the country’s participation in the international division of labor and its openness are considered. In this paper, using the example of Russia, the export of goods and services is analyzed, its relationship with a number of factors (exchange rate and oil price), where the main tools are methods of statistical and econometric analysis.

The World Economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 28-56
Author(s):  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Uk

There are now widespread signs that activity in the world economy has begun to recover steadily from the pause in growth apparent at the beginning of 1996. Output rose by 0.6 per cent in the North American economies in the third quarter of last year and by 0.8 per cent in Europe. Business and consumer sentiment has improved gradually in recent months in most of the major economies. We expect world economic growth to pick up further over the course of this year as the contractionary effects from the downturn in world trade and prolonged inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany, France and Japan, but may act to constrain growth within the UK, Italy and the US. For both this year and 1998 we expect growth of around 2½ per cent per annum in the OECD economies.

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