scholarly journals Optimization Parameters of Trading System with Constant Modulus of Unit Return

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Piasecki ◽  
Michał Dominik Stasiak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Binary Representation ◽  
Constant Modulus ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Base Exchange ◽  
Optimization Parameters ◽  
Exchange Medium

The unit return is determined as the return in the quotation currency (QCR) per the unit of base exchange medium (BEM). The main purpose is to examine the applicability of a trading system with a constant modulus of unit return (CMUR). The CMUR system supports speculative operations related to the exchange rate, given as the BEM quotation per the QCR. Premises for investment decisions are based on knowledge about the quotation dynamics described by its binary representation. This knowledge is described by a prediction table containing the conditional probability distributions of exchange rate increments. Any prediction table depends on observation range. Financial effectiveness of any CMUR system is assessed in the usual way by interest rate and risk index based on Shannon entropy. The main aim of our paper is to present algorithms which may be used for selecting effective CMUR systems. Required unit return modulus and observation range are control parameters applied for management of CMUR systems. Optimal values of these parameters are obtained by implementation of the proposed algorithm. All formal considerations are illustrated by an extensive case study linked to gold trading.

scholarly journals The Forex Trading System for Speculation with Constant Magnitude of Unit Return

Mathematics ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piasecki ◽  
Stasiak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Success Probability ◽  
Return Rate ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Base Exchange ◽  
Trading Systems ◽  
Constant Magnitude ◽  
Exchange Medium

The main purpose of this article is to investigate a speculative trading system with a constant magnitude of return rate. We consider speculative operations related to the exchange rate given as the quotient of the base exchange medium by the quoted currency. An exchange medium is understood as any currency or any precious metal. The unit return is defined as the return expressed in the quoted currency by the amount of base exchange medium. All possible states of the exchange market form a finite elemental space. All knowledge about the dynamics of this market is presented as a prediction table describing the conditional probability distributions of incoming exchange rate changes. On the other hand, in the proposed trading system each speculative operation is concluded in such a way that the gross payment is determined by the given magnitude of unit return. The paper contains an analysis of the following evaluation criteria: annual number of transaction, success probability, expected unit payment, expected unit profit, risk index, unit risk premium, return rate, interest rate, and interest risk premium. Both of these indices can be used to select the effective trading systems. Effectiveness is considered in the local sense and in the global sense.

Investigation of a New Approach to Predict Water Quality Extremes with a Case Study of Chemical Determinands in Stream Water

1991 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
A. J. Jakeman ◽  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
A. Robson ◽  
J. A. Taylor ◽  
J. Bai
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Hybrid Modelling ◽  
Trend Model ◽  
Environmental Extremes ◽  
Modelling Approach

The paper illustrates analysis of the assumptions of the statistical component of a hybrid modelling approach for predicting environmental extremes. This shows how to assess the applicability of the approach to water quality problems. The analysis involves data on stream acidity from the Birkenes catchment in Norway. The modelling approach is hybrid in that it uses: (1) a deterministic or process-based description to simulate (non-stationary) long term trend values of environmental variables, and (2) probability distributions which are superimposed on the trend values to characterise the frequency of shorter term concentrations. This permits assessment of management strategies and of sensitivity to climate variables by adjusting the values of major forcing variables in the trend model. Knowledge of the variability about the trend is provided by: (a) identification of an appropriate parametric form of the probability density function (pdf) of the environmental attribute (e.g. stream acidity variables) whose extremes are of interest, and (b) estimation of pdf parameters using the output of the trend model.

scholarly journals Scalable information-theoretic path planning for a rover-helicopter team in uncertain environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 172988142199958
Author(s):  
Larkin Folsom ◽  
Masahiro Ono ◽  
Kyohei Otsu ◽  
Hyoshin Park
Keyword(s):  
Path Planning ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Information Gain ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Single Agent ◽  
Uncertain Environments ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Naive Approach

Mission-critical exploration of uncertain environments requires reliable and robust mechanisms for achieving information gain. Typical measures of information gain such as Shannon entropy and KL divergence are unable to distinguish between different bimodal probability distributions or introduce bias toward one mode of a bimodal probability distribution. The use of a standard deviation (SD) metric reduces bias while retaining the ability to distinguish between higher and lower risk distributions. Areas of high SD can be safely explored through observation with an autonomous Mars Helicopter allowing safer and faster path plans for ground-based rovers. First, this study presents a single-agent information-theoretic utility-based path planning method for a highly correlated uncertain environment. Then, an information-theoretic two-stage multiagent rapidly exploring random tree framework is presented, which guides Mars helicopter through regions of high SD to reduce uncertainty for the rover. In a Monte Carlo simulation, we compare our information-theoretic framework with a rover-only approach and a naive approach, in which the helicopter scouts ahead of the rover along its planned path. Finally, the model is demonstrated in a case study on the Jezero region of Mars. Results show that the information-theoretic helicopter improves the travel time for the rover on average when compared with the rover alone or with the helicopter scouting ahead along the rover’s initially planned route.

scholarly journals A Wearable Sensor-Based Platform for Surgeon Posture Monitoring: A Tool to Prevent Musculoskeletal Disorders

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 3734
Author(s):  
Nicola Carbonaro ◽  
Gabriele Mascherini ◽  
Ilenia Bartolini ◽  
Maria Ringressi ◽  
Antonio Taddei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Musculoskeletal Disorders ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Surgical Interventions ◽  
Posture Monitoring ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Mini Laparotomy ◽  
Surgical Operations ◽  
Ergonomic Risk

Surgeons are workers that are particularly prone to the development of musculoskeletal disorders. Recent advances in surgical interventions, such as laparoscopic procedures, have caused a worsening of the scenario, given the harmful static postures that have to be kept for long periods. In this paper, we present a sensor-based platform specifically aimed at monitoring the posture during actual surgical operations. The proposed system adopts a limited number of Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) to obtain information about spine and neck angles across time. Such a system merges the reliability of sensor-based approaches and the validity of state-of-the-art scoring procedure, such as RULA. Specifically, three IMUs are used to estimate the flexion, lateral bending, and twisting angles of spine and neck. An ergonomic risk index is thus estimated in a time varying fashion borrowing relevant features from the RULA scoring system. The detailed functioning of the proposed systems is introduced, and the assessment results related to a real surgical procedure, consisting of a laparoscopy and mini-laparotomy sections, are shown and discussed. In the exemplary case study introduced, the surgeon kept a high score, indicating the need for an intervention on the working procedures, for a large time fraction. The system allows separately analyzing the contribution of spine and neck, also specifying the angle configuration. It is shown how the proposed approach can provide further information, as related to dynamical analysis, which could be used to enlarge the features taken into account by currently available approaches for ergonomic risk assessment. The proposed system could be adopted both for training purposes, as well as for alerting surgeons during actual surgical operations.

Legalization in context: The design of the WTO’s dispute settlement system

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 304-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred Elsig
Keyword(s):  
Rational Design ◽  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Settlement System ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Wto Dispute Settlement ◽  
Multilateral Trading System ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Dispute Settlement System

This article asks why the dispute settlement provisions of the multilateral trading system underwent significant reforms during the negotiations that led to the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. Why did the leading trading powers accept a highly legalized system that departed from established political–diplomatic forms of settling disputes? The contribution of this article is threefold. First, it complements existing accounts that exclusively focus on the United States with a novel explanation that takes account of contextual factors. Second, it offers an in-depth empirical case study based on interviews with negotiators who were involved and novel archival evidence on the creation of the new WTO dispute settlement system. Third, by unpacking the long-standing puzzle of why states designed a highly legalized system, it addresses selected blind spots of the legalization and the rational design literatures with the aim of providing a better understanding about potential paths leading toward significant changes in legalization.

scholarly journals Flood risk index pattern assessment: case study in Langat River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2S) ◽  
pp. 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.S.M. Saudi ◽  
M.K.A. Kamarudin ◽  
I.S.D. Ridzuan ◽  
R Ishak ◽  
A Azid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Langat River

scholarly journals Is There a Need to Conduct Water Rights Transactions in the Water-Rich Areas of China? A Case Study of the Taihu Basin

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengping Wu ◽  
Min Zhu ◽  
Shang Luo ◽  
Junyuan Shen ◽  
Xia Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Water Rights ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Water Management System ◽  
Taihu Basin ◽  
Total Water Consumption ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Increasing Demand

To alleviate the contradiction between the increasing demand for water and the shortage of resources and to provide a favorable institutional environment for water rights trading, the Chinese government has strengthened the top-level design of water management system. However, the water-rich regions (southern regions of China) have good water resource endowment and a surplus of total water consumption indicators. Does this mean that there is no incentive and no need to conduct water rights trading in these regions? Through the investigation of water rights circulation cases in the Taihu Basin, a typical water-rich region of China, we established the existence of trading demand and some difficulties in conducting transactions. This paper argues that the needs of trading include alleviating the water gap in regional development, solving the water demand for large new projects, coordinating trans-jurisdiction water disputes. The plight of trading includes the lack of awareness, irregular process, excessive administrative intervention, and imperfect trading system.

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