scholarly journals A Two-Step Polynomial and Nonlinear Growth Approach for Modeling COVID-19 Cases in Mexico

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
pp. 2180
Author(s):  
Rafael Pérez Abreu C. ◽  
Samantha Estrada ◽  
Héctor de-la-Torre-Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Nonlinear Growth ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Growth Approach

Since December 2019, the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated illness COVID-19 have rapidly spread worldwide. The Mexican government has implemented public safety measures to minimize the spread of the virus. In this paper, we used statistical models in two stages to estimate the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases per day at the state and national levels in Mexico. In this paper, we propose two types of models. First, a polynomial model of the growth for the first part of the outbreak until the inflection point of the pandemic curve and then a second nonlinear growth model used to estimate the middle and the end of the outbreak. Model selection was performed using Vuong’s test. The proposed models showed overall fit similar to predictive models (e.g., time series and machine learning); however, the interpretation of parameters is simpler for decisionmakers, and the residuals follow the expected distribution when fitting the models without autocorrelation being an issue.

scholarly journals A Two-Stage Polynomial and Nonlinear Growth Approach for Modeling the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael Perez Abreu ◽  
Samantha Estrada ◽  
Héctor de-la-Torre-Gutiérrez
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Models ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
National Level ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Nonlinear Growth ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Growth Approach

Since December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread worldwide. The Mexican government has implemented public safety measures to minimize the spread of the virus. In this paper, the authors use statistical models in two stages to estimate the total number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases per day at the state and national level in Mexico. Two types of models are proposed: first, a polynomial model of the growth for the first part of the outbreak until the inflection point of the pandemic curve and then a second nonlinear growth model is used to estimate the middle and the end of the outbreak. Model selection will be performed using Vuong’s test. The proposed models show overall fit similar to predictive models (e.g. time series, and machine learning); however, the interpretation of parameters is less complex for decision-makers and the residuals follow the expected distribution when fitting the models without autocorrelation being an issue.

The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel W. Drezner
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
World Politics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Critical Junctures ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Since the onset of COVID-19, there has been a surfeit of commentary arguing that 2020 will have transformative effects on world politics. This paper asks whether, decades from now, the pandemic will be viewed as an inflection point. Critical junctures occur when an event triggers a discontinuous shift in key variables or forces a rapid acceleration of preexisting trends. Pandemics have undeniably had this effect in the far past. A welter of economic and medical developments, however, have strongly muted the geopolitical impact of pandemics in recent centuries. A review of how the novel coronavirus has affected the distribution of power and interest in its first six months suggests that COVID-19 will not have transformative effects on world politics. Absent a profound ex post shift in hegemonic ideas, 2020 is unlikely to be an inflection point.

scholarly journals Student-Designed Cross-Sectional Pandemic Knowledge Survey of 8th−12th Grade Students, Milwaukee, WI, April 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krish Vasudev ◽  
Hersh Singh ◽  
August A. Neumann ◽  
William M Zhao ◽  
Lyle Dominic Pelayo Mondano
Keyword(s):  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Web Based ◽  
12Th Grade ◽  
Twelfth Grade ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
High Level ◽  
Knowledge Survey

Background: The novel coronavirus and its effect on our society are unprecedented. Given the recent pandemic, numerous measures have been taken to protect our communities. We sought to understand our school community's knowledge and the measures that were taken by our school for our safety.Objective: Our objective was to describe the overall understanding and attitudes of 8–12th grade students from a single institution during the initial phase of the Wisconsin's Governor's stay-at-home order.Methods: A voluntary web-based survey was communicated to 8–12th grade students through their online school portal. Data were collected and analyzed using SurveyMonkey.Results: There was a 20.2% response rate. Answers regarding the coronavirus, spread, and response to the coronavirus pandemic showed a high level of understanding of the virus and the actions necessary to prevent its spread.Conclusion: Eight-twelfth grade students have a high level of understanding of the virus, its effects, and the safety measures implemented to protect society.

scholarly journals COVID-19: A Critical Review on Viral Biochemistry, Environmental Transmission, Therapeutics and Safety Measures

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roshni Kumari ◽  
Kumari Pragati Nanda ◽  
Hena Firdaus ◽  
Soumen Dey
Keyword(s):  
Specific Treatment ◽  
Scattered Data ◽  
Review Article ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

The outbreak of coronavirus disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is declared pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO) keeping in view its infection rate and toxicity level. The entire world is struggling hard to survive the prevailing health emergency. The authors realise the urgent need of contributing an overview of the present scenario to the researchers who are breathlessly trying to combat this pandemic situation. This review aimed at binding all the scattered data and research available till now on COVID-19 disease starting from its origin to transmission and spread through environmental factors till treatment and the safety measures that should be implemented. This article would possibly help the readers by providing an outlook of current scenario on various perspectives of COVID-19 disease at a single glance. The types, origin and toxicity caused are discussed in brief. The role of contaminated aerosols (viral-laden smoke from tobacco, cigarettes), wastewater, fomites, human and faecal matter are important in spreading the novel coronavirus in the environment. There is no specific treatment till date but clinical trials and diagnosis on several known drugs are on-going. The precaution and safety measures could hopefully reduce number of infections and mortality. The number of infected cases confirmed till 2 August 2020 was 17660523 with 680894 deaths in the world. We tried in this review article to summarize the scattered data available on biochemistry of SARS-CoV-2, environmental spread of virus and the safety measures to combat COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Mexico and the Potential Impact of Lifting Confinement Across Regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristy Leonor Azanza Ricardo ◽  
Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
The World ◽  
High Death ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has paralyzed our societies, leading to self-isolation and quarantine for several days. As the 10th most populated country in the world, Mexico is on a major threat by COVID-19 due to the limitations of intensive care capacities, about 1.5 hospital beds for every 1,000 citizens. In this paper, we characterize the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico and projected different scenarios to evaluate sharp or gradual quarantine lifting strategies. Mexican government relaxed strict social distancing regulations on June 1, 2020, deriving to pandemic data with large fluctuations and uncertainties of the tendency of the pandemic in Mexico. Our results suggest that lifting social confinement must be gradually sparse while maintaining a decentralized region strategy among the Mexican states. To substantially lower the number of infections, simulations highlight that a fraction of the population that represents the elderly should remain in social confinement (approximately 11.3% of the population); a fraction of the population that represents the confined working class (roughly 27% of the population) must gradually return in at least four parts in consecutive months; and to the last a fraction of the population that assumes the return of students to schools (about 21.7%). As the epidemic progresses, deconfinement strategies need to be continuously re-adjusting with the new pandemic data. All mathematical models, including ours, are only a possibility of many of the future, however, the different scenarios that were developed here highlight that a gradual decentralized region deconfinement with a significant increase in healthcare capacities is paramount to avoid a high death toll in Mexico.

scholarly journals De novo design of new chemical entities for SARS-CoV-2 using artificial intelligence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Navneet Bung ◽  
Sowmya R Krishnan ◽  
Gopalakrishnan Bulusu ◽  
Arijit Roy
Keyword(s):  
Small Molecules ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
De Novo ◽  
Chemical Space ◽  
De Novo Design ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Chemical Entities ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
3Cl Protease

Background: The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has severely affected the health and economy of several countries. Multiple studies are in progress to design novel therapeutics against the potential target proteins in SARS-CoV-2, including 3CL protease, an essential protein for virus replication. Materials & methods: In this study we employed deep neural network-based generative and predictive models for de novo design of small molecules capable of inhibiting the 3CL protease. The generative model was optimized using transfer learning and reinforcement learning to focus around the chemical space corresponding to the protease inhibitors. Multiple physicochemical property filters and virtual screening score were used for the final screening. Conclusion: We have identified 33 potential compounds as ideal candidates for further synthesis and testing against SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals The Safety of Contemporary Planned Cancer Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Shackley ◽  
S Gray ◽  
S Penney ◽  
L Galligan-Dawson ◽  
F Howle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Prospective Audit ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Surgical Services ◽  
Surgical Units ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Surgical Admission

AbstractIntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has put an unprecedented burden on global healthcare, including detrimental implications for the volume and provision of surgical services. The aim of this audit was to assess if the planned surgical cancer care (both diagnostic for possible cancer, and treatment of known cancer) during this period of widespread community and hospital based COVID-19 infection resulted in patients acquiring symptomatic COVID-19 as a consequence of their surgical admission, and if so, what the impact on patients was.MethodsA prospective audit of all patients undergoing elective cancer surgery in Greater Manchester operated on between 01/05/2020 and 31/06/2020 was undertaken after the introduction of specific peri operative COVID safety measures across Greater Manchester cancer surgical cells. The COVID related outcomes for all cancer patients operated on in Greater Manchester were recorded.ResultsOf the 1501 patients undergoing surgery, one (<0.1%) was diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital within 14 days of surgery. This patient did not require admission to critical care due to post-operative COVID-19 diagnosis, and there was no associated mortality related to post-operative COVID-19 infection.ConclusionThe use of peri operative COVID-19 infection prevention strategies has allowed for the safe continuation of elective cancer surgery during this pandemic in all surgical units, without significant additional COVID-19 related morbidity or mortality.

scholarly journals How children and young people can stay physically active during the novel coronavirus pandemic while take into account safety measures and precautions

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 295-299
Author(s):  
Andreas Fröberg
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Young People ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Physically Active ◽  
Children And Young People ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has caused major public concern and posed challenges to societies across the globe. The COVID-19 pandemic might have implications for health-related behaviors, such as physical activity, among people in different age groups. Lately, a number of papers have offered suggestions and recommendations on how to stay physically active during the novel coronavirus pandemic while take into account safety measures and precautions. Many of these suggestions and recommendations might be relevant for health professionals and health practitioners working to facilitate physical activity, health, and well-being among children and young people. In light of the COVID-19pandemic, this paper provides an overview of (a) suggestions and recommendations on physical activities; and (b) safety measures and precautions while being physically active.

scholarly journals The Risk of Lifting COVID-19 Confinement in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristy Leonor Azanza Ricardo ◽  
Esteban A. Hernandez-Vargas
Keyword(s):  
Fold Increase ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Bed Occupancy ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Hypothetical Scenario ◽  
The World ◽  
High Death ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

ABSTRACTThe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has paralysed our societies, leading to self isolation and quarantine for several days. As the 10th most populated country in the world, Mexico is on a major threat by COVID-19 due to the limitations of intensive care capacities, and a total of about 1.5 hospital beds for every 1000 citizens. In this paper, we projected different scenarios to evaluate sharp or gradual quarantine lifting strategies, however, even in the hypothetical scenario that Mexico would continue with full confinement, hospitals would be reaching the maximum capacity of hospital bed occupancy. Mexican government is planning to relax the strict social distancing regulations on 1 June 2020, however, epidemic rebound risks are latent.Our results suggest that lifting social confinement needs to be gradually sparse while maintaining a decentralized region strategy among the Mexican states. To substantially lower the number of infections, predictions highlight that the elderly should remain in social confinement (approximately 11.3% of the population); the confined working class (roughly 27% of the population) must gradually return in at least four parts in consecutive months; and to the last the return of students to schools (about 21.7%). As the epidemic progresses, de-confinement strategies need to be continuously re-adjusting with the new pandemic data. Assuming the most optimistic scenario by our predictions, the smallest number of new COVID-19 cases, Mexico would require at least a 3 fold increase in hospital capacities dedicated for COVID-19. Furthermore, to observe the real dimension of the epidemic, Mexico would need to increase to at least 18 samples per 1000 people, currently is only 0.6 per 1000.All mathematical models, including ours, are only a possibility of many of the future, however, the different scenarios that were developed here highlight that a gradual decentralized region de-confinement with a significant increase in healthcare capacities is paramount to avoid a high death toll in Mexico.

scholarly journals Personal Protective Equipment during Endoscopy

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Shibi Mathew ◽  
Mathew Philip
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care Workers ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
World Health ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Care Workers ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which originated in China has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). This virus gets transmitted through air droplets and direct contact. Health care workers doing aerosol-generating procedures are at a higher risk of acquiring the infection. Many procedures done by the gastrointestinal endoscopists are classified as aerosol-generating procedures, which in turn underline the need for proper safety precautions during these procedures. Apart from general safety measures advised by various organizations, proper use of personal protective equipment (PPE) is a pivotal factor in safeguarding health care personnel during endoscopy. This article provides a short overview of the different PPEs available and their proper use in endoscopy.

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