scholarly journals The Problem of Determining Discount Rate for Integrated Investment Projects in the Oil and Gas Industry

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (24) ◽  
pp. 3327
Author(s):  
Alexey Komzolov ◽  
Tatiana Kirichenko ◽  
Olga Kirichenko ◽  
Yulia Nazarova ◽  
Natalya Shcherbakova
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Integrated Project ◽  
Methodological Approaches

The main aim of this paper was to examine specific approaches to determining the discount rate for comprehensive computation of investment projects efficiency in the oil and gas industry. The objective of the study was to develop a scientific approach for determining the discount rate for integrated oil and gas projects. The authors analyze dynamic methods for determining the efficiency of investment projects in the oil and gas industry and conclude that they are advisable for oil and gas projects due to the high capital intensity of the projects and their long payback period. Regarding the need to implement dynamic indicators of efficiency, the authors set the task of deter-mining the proper discount rate as a factor having a significant impact on effectiveness evaluation. The discount rate is proposed to be evaluated by solving the equation and finding the break-even point where the NPV (net present value) of the integrated project will be equal to 0 (taking into account the revenue of the subprojects included in the complex). The practical implementation of methodological approaches to assessing the discount rate for integrated projects is relevant due to the execution of large, systemically important and integrated projects. As a result of the study, the authors put forward a methodological algorithm for determining the discount rate of an integrated project which assumes an assessment of cash flows for the subprojects included in the complex; determination of the target rate of return for subprojects; and calculation of prices for products at which a complex project become break-even. The practical implementation of methodological approaches to assessing the discount rate for integrated projects is relevant due to the execution of large systemically important integrated projects.

scholarly journals О ФАКТОРАХ ЭФФЕКТИВНОЙ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ

World Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (5(45)) ◽  
pp. 16-21
Author(s):  
Мирхамидова Д. Н. ◽  
Атаханова Ш. С. ◽  
Соатов Ф. Й.
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects

In article researches on establishment of influence of geological and technology factors on efficiency of investment projects, determination of risks at implementation of investment projects in the oil and gas industry and feature and factors for successful implementation of investment projects are considered.

The Weitzman Argument

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Simple Rule ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Net Benefits

This chapter examines a model in which the exogeneous rate of return of capital is constant but random. Safe investment projects must be evaluated and implemented before this uncertainty can be fully revealed, i.e., before knowing the opportunity cost of capital. A simple rule of thumb in this context would be to compute the net present value (NPV) for each possible discount rate, and to implement the project if the expected NPV is positive. If the evaluator uses this approach, this is as if one would discount cash flows at a rate that is decreasing with maturity. This approach is implicitly based on the assumptions that the stakeholders are risk-neutral and transfer the net benefits of the project to an increase in immediate consumption. Opposite results prevail if one assumes that the net benefit is consumed at the maturity of the project.

scholarly journals Stochastic Simplex Approximate Gradient for Robust Life-Cycle Production Optimization: Applied to Brugge Field

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bailian Chen ◽  
Jianchun Xu
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Production Optimization ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Optimization Under Uncertainty ◽  
Theoretical Argument ◽  
Gas Industry

In oil and gas industry, production optimization is a viable technique to maximize the recovery or the net present value (NPV). Robust optimization is one type of production optimization techniques where the geological uncertainty of reservoir is considered. When well operating conditions, e.g., well flow rates settings of inflow control valves and bottom-hole pressures, are the optimization variables, ensemble-based optimization (EnOpt) is the most popular ensemble-based algorithm for the robust life-cycle production optimization. Recently, a superior algorithm, stochastic simplex approximate gradient (StoSAG), was proposed. Fonseca and co-workers (2016, A Stochastic Simplex Approximate Gradient (StoSAG) for Optimization Under Uncertainty, Int. J. Numer. Methods Eng., 109(13), pp. 1756–1776) provided a theoretical argument on the superiority of StoSAG over EnOpt. However, it has not drawn significant attention in the reservoir optimization community. The purpose of this study is to provide a refined theoretical discussion on why StoSAG is generally superior to EnOpt and to provide a reasonable example (Brugge field) where StoSAG generates estimates of optimal well operating conditions that give a life-cycle NPV significantly higher than the NPV obtained from EnOpt.

One Method to Identify the Real Options in the Investment Project

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 35-44
Author(s):  
Inas Nadrus ◽  
Valery Anshin ◽  
Igor Demkin
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Present Article ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Specific Nature ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Multiple Case ◽  
Multiple Case Studies

The present article describes a research that examines the sources of flexibility in the investment projects in the oil and gas industry using multiple case studies of several oil and gas projects. More precisely, the study is concerned with revealing uncertainties that give rise to real options. Ultimately, the methodology for real options identification in the exploration & development type of investment projects of the oil and gas industry is proposed. It is anticipated that the results might help to bring certain improvements into the existing managerial conception of using real options for investment project evaluation considering the specific nature of investment projects in the oil and gas industry.

Analysis of Applicability of Approaches to Factor Analysis During the Monitoring Investment Projects Cost Deviations in Oil and Gas Industry

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-18
Author(s):  
Игорь Демкин ◽  
Igor Demkin ◽  
Д. Власов ◽  
D. Vlasov ◽  
Владимир Бархатов ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Project Planning ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Limited Opportunity ◽  
Proactive Measures ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Strategic projects of oil and gas companies regularly overcome the budget. High capitalization of these projects leads to the fact that even small relative cost deviations result in significant additional investments. Under present conditions of economic and political pressure, characterized by a limited opportunity to raise loan capital, there can be no additional investments leading to impossibility of new oil and gas projects realization or stop those being realized. One of the ways to prevent such a negative scenario is to improve the project planning system taking into account the results of monitoring the project portfolio cost deviations. It will not only allow companies to take into account the causes of deviations in several projects, but also help to develop and implement proactive measures.

What happens when quantum computing re-defines the assessment of investment risk?

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 486
Author(s):  
Mark Laybourn ◽  
John Pascoe
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Computing ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Quantum Computer ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Evaluation ◽  
Classical Computer

The dawn of quantum computing is upon us and as the world’s smartest minds determine how the technology will change our daily lives, we consider how it could benefit investors in oil and gas projects to make better decisions. The oil and gas industry relies on investment for its survival and investors expect a return commensurate with the risks of a project. The classical approach to investment evaluation relies on mathematics in which estimated project cash flows are assessed against a cost of capital and an upfront investment. The issue with this approach is the key assumptions which underpin the project cash flow calculations such as reserves, production and market prices are themselves estimates which each introduce a degree of risk. If we analysed the financial models of recent oil and gas developments we would find the key assumptions which underpin the projects would be vastly different to reality. The crystal ball of investment evaluation would benefit from a more powerful way to optimise estimates and assess risk. A quantum computer offers the ability to perform optimisation calculations not possible with classical computers. The theoretical ability to run infinite parallel processes (as opposed to sequential processes in classical computers) can fundamentally change the optimisation of estimates. Google and NASA were recently able to solve a highly specialised computing problem with a quantum computer 100 million times faster than a classical computer. The power to significantly improve estimation optimisations and thereby reduce risk will help investors achieve a higher degree of confidence and should see levels of investment increase.

scholarly journals Portfolio Choice for a Resource-Based Sovereign Wealth Fund: An Analysis of Cash Flows

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Knut Anton Mork ◽  
Hanna Marisela Eap ◽  
Magnus Eskedal Haraldsen
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Portfolio Choice ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Discount Factors ◽  
Equity Price

We consider the portfolio choice of a government with a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) when government revenues depend on exhaustible resources, such as oil and gas. The question is whether the SWF portfolio should underweight shares in the resource industry. Some studies have found that these share prices correlate more closely with the overall stock market than the resource price, which would seem to weaken the case for underweighting. However, equity price movements depend not only on changes in expectations of future cash flows, but also on time variation in discount factors. We analyze cash flows directly, rather than trying to disentangle these effects. We have collected cash-flow data for the companies in all of the major industries of the FTSE Global All Cap index, the basis for the strategic index of the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global. Subsequently, we look at the correlations between each industry’s cash flow and the Norwegian government’s cash flow from oil and gas. We find a close, statistically significant, and persistent correlation for the oil and gas industry. The correlations for other industries are small and mostly insignificant. We believe that our findings can be used to support proposals for SWFs in countries with significant petroleum revenues to underweight shares in this industry.

An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 391-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Kosowski ◽  
Jerzy Stopa
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
New Information ◽  
Options Theory

Abstract Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment’s decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is no longer used; an investment project is divided into a series of steps and after each one there is a range of possible investment decisions, technical and organizational issues and all the others called ‘real options’. This lets one take many different varieties of modyfiying a strategy while pricing the project. This also makes it possible to react to the changing inner and outer situation and introducing new information while accomplishing the investment project. Owing to those, the decision process is a continuous operation, what is an actual vision of a real investment project management in the petroleum industry.

scholarly journals Problems of Ensuring Competitiveness of Oil and Gas Enterprises

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinora Ishmanova
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
Further Development ◽  
The Competitiveness Of Enterprises ◽  
Oil And Gas Enterprises

The article deals with the reforms in the oil and gas industry and investment projects in the industry. To ensure the competitiveness of enterprises in the oil and gas. A number of problems related to the competitiveness of oil and gas enterprises have been identified and research is being conducted. Investment projects in the oil and gas industry are highlighted in the creation of infrastructure facilities and cooperation with international financial institutions. Great attention is paid to the economic growth in the member-states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and further development of the industrial transport system. Liquefied petroleum products have the highest annual growth rates in non-CIS countries. Statistical data show that the amount of fuel required to meet the increasing demand for fuels in the world needs to be increased. The article describes how to solve the problem gradually leaving the monopoly.

scholarly journals Applying Simulation for Oil and Gas Industry Case Albpetrol Company

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-198
Author(s):  
Blerta Mjeda
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
International Market ◽  
Good Chance ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Production Company ◽  
Good Research

Abstract The overall subject for this paper is to enlarge our understanding of simulation behavior while working in investment projects, taking as example the Albpetrol oil production company. An understanding of simulation behavior is essential, since human resources should be regarded as competitive strengths for organizations competing in an international market. The objective of this evaluation is to understand if this investment project has a good chance to be implemented, and to be undertaken as a project, or if the chances are lower. Taking into accountant the importance of oil and gas industry today we should offer the better conditions and better services in order to survive the competition and this is possible if we are doing a good research. For years the company has taken into consideration the possibility of drilling new wells, serving in the existing deposits where it is carrying out its activity. for this purpose, all the data on these deposits have been analyzed and studied, and it has already been concluded that Albpetrol could launch new wells in the fields such as Cakran-Mollaj, Amonice and Patos-Marinze.

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