scholarly journals Non-Performing Loans and Macroeconomics Factors: The Italian Case

Risks ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Matteo Foglia
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Italian Context

The purpose of this work is to investigate the influence of macroeconomics determinants on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Italian banking system over the period 2008Q3–2020Q4. We mainly contribute to the literature by being the first empirical article to study this relationship in the Italian context in the recent period, thus providing fresh evidence on the macroeconomic impact on NPLs, i.e., on the credit risk of Italian banks. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model, we are able to investigate the short and long-run effects of macroeconomic factors on NPLs. The empirical findings show that gross domestic product and public debt have a negative impact on NPLs. On the other hand, we find that the unemployment rate and domestic credit positively influence impaired loans. Finally, we find evidence of the “gamble for resurrection” approach, i.e., Italian banks tend to support “zombie firms”.

scholarly journals The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth of Kyrgyzstan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Burulcha Sulaimanova ◽  
Daniyar Jasoolov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Empirical Estimation ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of remittances on the gross domestic product of Kyrgyz Republic, by using several empirical estimation methods, these are: the method of simultaneous equations, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Vector Autoregressive models. While there is a long run relationship between remittances and economic growth of Kyrgyzstan, according to the estimation results of the simultaneous models, there is statistically significant positive correlation of households’ final consumption and imports with remittances, and simultaneously significant positive effect of consumption on GDP, and significant, but negative impact of imports to GDP. Moreover, the small but significant impact of remittances on demand for domestic products were found.

Factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey: an empirical analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-132
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Nandom Yakubu ◽  
Aziza Hashi Abokor
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the key factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey for the period 2000Q1–2016Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the effect of bank-level and macroeconomic factors on deposit growth. Findings The results reveal that bank stability, banking sector efficiency, broad money supply, economic growth, and inflation are significant determinants of deposit growth in the long run. The findings further show that in the short run, only branch expansion and broad money supply are relevant for bank deposit mobilization. Originality/value This paper departs from the extant empirical studies that focus on the determinants of individual savings behaviour in Turkey. Considering the short- and long-run time dimensions, the authors distinctively examine how bank characteristics influence deposit growth, thus presenting a relatively pioneering attempt in this context.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Democracy and Economic Growth in Tunisia: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Lamia Arfaoui ◽  
Azza Ziadi ◽  
Sonia Manai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to identify the nature of the relationship between democracy and economic growth. We will answer the question: Does democracy improve economic growth? We study the case of Tunisia during the period from 1980 until 2014; this country has experienced a democratic transition after the revolution of 14 th January 2011. Our study is divided into two parts. The first part is a literature review of overview on the causality between democracy and economic growth. The second part as an application uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The choice of the technical SARL aimed the study of the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between two variables in level, a procedure co-integration has been proposed by Pesaran et al (2001). The results of different empirical studies were inconclusive. Some generated a negative impact of democracy on growth while others showed the opposite. The empirical results of our work have shown that in a nascent democracy such is the case of Tunisia; democracy has no effect on economic growth in the short term.  It is to add an observation rate of GDP during the period post -revolution generated a sawtooth trend which demonstrates the unstable economic situation in the country.

The Effects of Capital Flows on Economic Growth in Senegal

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Adams ◽  
Edem Kwame Mensah Klobodu ◽  
Richmond Odartey Lamptey
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Growth Equation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
Breakpoint Location

This article examines the effects of capital flows on economic growth in Senegal using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) over the period 1970–2014. Overall, our results show that remittances cause economic growth in Senegal in the long run. In contrast, external debt has a negative impact on economic growth. The ARDL results, however, show no cointegration between aid and growth or between foreign direct investment (FDI) and growth. The Quandt–Andrews breakpoint test selects year 1991 as the most likely breakpoint location for the remittances–growth equation. Finally, time-varying parameter analyses using the year 1991 as a slope dummy reveal that remittances have been growth-enhancing post-1991. Therefore, government and policy makers in Senegal must create a favourable atmosphere for attracting more remittances to promote economic development. JEL: F21, F24, F35, F34, O10

scholarly journals Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Gómez-Puig ◽  
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper empirically investigates the short and the long run impact of public debt on economic growth. We use annual data from both the central and the peripheral countries of the euro area (EA) for the 1961–2013 period and estimate a production function augmented with a debt stock term by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our results suggest different patterns across the EA countries and tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EA member states, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.

Determinants of household financial vulnerability in Malaysia and its effect on low-income groups

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Abidullah Abid ◽  
Muhammad Hakimi Mohd Shafiai
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Financial Vulnerability ◽  
Financial Shocks ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Income Groups ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Low Income Groups

Household financial vulnerability is an important area of research in household economic studies. Hence, a number of studies have attempted to identify the factors that make households vulnerable to financial shocks. In Malaysia, the research is scant on this topic especially when it comes to low-income households. Therefore, the study aims to identify the macroeconomic factors that make the household vulnerable to financial shocks. For this purpose, the study uses the autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach as an estimation technique. The results revealed that household debt, prices of goods, interest rate and unemployment have a positive long-run relationship with household financial vulnerability while income has a negative relationship. Further analysis confirms that these predictors of financial vulnerability also affect the low-income groups. This study would be of interest to the academicians and policy makers in the area of household economics.

scholarly journals Globalization, Country Risks, and Trade in Tourism Services: Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 5869
Author(s):  
Wenwen Zhang ◽  
Yi-Bin Chiu
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Equilibrium Path ◽  
Service Trade ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tourism Service

This study applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the impacts of globalization and country risks on China’s tourism service trade over the period 1984–2015. The results reveal that in the long run, globalization has a significant negative impact on tourism service exports and tourism service trade balances, while a significant positive impact on tourism service imports. In the short run, globalization has a significant negative impact on tourism service imports, while a significant positive impact on tourism service exports and trade balances. Country stability could roughly mitigate these negative and positive impacts of globalization on tourism service trade in both the short and long run. Moreover, the speed of adjustment from the short run to long run equilibrium path is relatively fast. These results are important for China’s policy makers when formulating a strategy for the development of tourism service trade.

scholarly journals Income Inequality and Public Debt: What Can Be Learned from the Lebanese Indebtedness?

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Adham Sayed
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Public ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of domestic public debt on income inequality in Lebanon. The analysis is carried out using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and Error Correction Model (ECM). The data used covers the period between 1990 and 2015. By applying the bounds test, we indicate that there is the existence of a long-run relationship between our variables. Therefore, in both the short and long run, our results show that the domestic share of public debt has a positive and significant effect on income inequality. Hence, a bigger share of domestic public debt leads to wider income inequality. We also suggest steps that may halt the negative impact of public debt on equality in Lebanon, such as reforming the tax system, restructuring the public debt, and searching for sources other than borrowing to cover the budget deficit.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Impacts of Temperature and Rainfall on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 595
Author(s):  
Mirza Nouman Ali Talib ◽  
Masood Ahmed ◽  
Mirza Muhammad Naseer ◽  
Beata Slusarczyk ◽  
József Popp
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Agricultural Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Sub Saharan

Agricultural sector is significant for Sub-Saharan African countries and is highly exposed and sensitive to climate change. This study aims to investigate the overall long-run impacts of temperature and precipitation on agricultural growth in 32 Sub-Saharan African countries. As proposed by Chudik and Pesaran, our estimations are based on augmented autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) modelling and panel estimators with multifactor error structures. We estimate the “dynamic common correlated long-run effects (DCCE)” through the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) approach as well as through the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL). For robustness check, we also consider the cross-sectionally augmented error correction method (CS-ECM) and the common dynamic process augmented mean group (AMG). The study suggests that rising temperatures have significantly developed a negative long-term relationship with the agricultural growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the long-run effect of precipitation is less important and not statistically significant in most estimations. According to the CS-DL approach, the negative impact of a 1°Crise in temperature could be as high as a 4.2 to 4.7 percentage point decrease in the agricultural growth rate. The results indicate that the warming climate has considerably damaged the agrarian activities in Sub-Saharan Africa, necessitating adaptive climate measures to avoid any food scarcity or economic stagnation in agricultural driven African countries.

Macro-Economic Disequilibrium and Educational Development in Nigeria between 1980-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Educational Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Level I

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document