Factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey: an empirical analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-132
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Nandom Yakubu ◽  
Aziza Hashi Abokor
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the key factors determining bank deposit growth in Turkey for the period 2000Q1–2016Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the effect of bank-level and macroeconomic factors on deposit growth. Findings The results reveal that bank stability, banking sector efficiency, broad money supply, economic growth, and inflation are significant determinants of deposit growth in the long run. The findings further show that in the short run, only branch expansion and broad money supply are relevant for bank deposit mobilization. Originality/value This paper departs from the extant empirical studies that focus on the determinants of individual savings behaviour in Turkey. Considering the short- and long-run time dimensions, the authors distinctively examine how bank characteristics influence deposit growth, thus presenting a relatively pioneering attempt in this context.

Growth impact of CO2 emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vedat Yorucu
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Tourist ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run. Design/methodology/approach – ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study. Findings – Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables. Originality/value – Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Money Supply, Price Level and Economic Growth In Pakistan: Keynesian versus Monetarist View

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-64
Author(s):  
Abdul Mansoor ◽  
Quratulain Shoukat ◽  
Shagufta Bibi ◽  
Khushbakht Iqbal ◽  
Romana Saeed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Supply Price

AbstractThe objective of the study is to examine the relationship between money supply, price level and economic growth in the context of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, covered a period of 1980 to 2016. The results confirm the long-run relationship between the variables while using broad money supply as a response variable. However, in the price and income modeling, the variables do not support the cointegration relationship between the variables. The causality results confirmed the unidirectional relationship running from income to money supply, which implies that income do causes money supply in the short run, whereas money supply leads to inflation to support Monetarist view of inflation in a country. The results conclude that economic growth is imperative to stabilize money supply and price level through sound economic policies in a country.

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iffat Zehra ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Imran Umer Chhapra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

Electricity consumption and economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Themba G. Chirwa ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Homogeneity Assumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the short- and long-run relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a panel-based autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to investigate this relationship in 12 advanced, emerging markets and developing economies during the period 1970-2016, selected from three continents, namely, Europe (Luxemborg, Norway, Denmark and Belgium), Asia (Singapore, Japan, Indonesia and India) and Africa (South Africa, Algeria, Egypt and Kenya). Findings Based on the homogeneity assumption, the study results reveal that electricity consumption is positively and significantly associated with economic growth in all the study countries in the long run. Conversely, the short-run results reveal that electricity consumption is positively and significantly associated with economic growth in ten countries and negatively associated with economic growth in only two countries. Research limitations/implications The study concludes that, on the whole, electricity consumption is an important factor of production in the majority of the study countries. Therefore, policymakers should focus on growth-enhancing energy policies that promote energy efficiency usage, especially in the long run. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that the paper has not been published elsewhere, and this research is entirely their work.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p29
Author(s):  
Chioma Chidinma George-Anokwuru ◽  
Bosco Itoro Ekpenyong
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The impact of government spending on Nigeria’s inflation levels between 1999 and 2019 was x-rayed in this paper. The data for the study were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used as the main analytical tool. A long-run relationship among this study’s variables was realized, using the ARDL Bounds test. The result also revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in the short-run. Moreover, in the long-run, government expenditure has negative and is statistically significant inflation rate. Money supply has a negative and is statistically insignificant with inflation rate in the short-run. In the long-run, money supply has a positive and significant relationship with inflation rate. Gross domestic product was negatively related to inflation rate in both short-run and long-run. Moreover, exchange rate affected inflation rate negatively and significantly in the short-run and positively and significantly in the long-run. The increasing demands of the population affected inflation rate positively and significantly in both short-run and long-run. Investment was positively related to inflation rate but not significant in the short-run but the relationship was negative and significant in the long-run. The study therefore recommended among others that government should exercise discretion in spending in order to check inflation rate. This can be done by channeling spending on productive activities that will cushion the effect of inflation rate rather than exacerbate it.

scholarly journals Determinants of Insurance Penetration in West African Countries: A Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 350
Author(s):  
Odunayo Olarewaju ◽  
Thabiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
West African ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Insurance Penetration ◽  
The Government

This study analyses the long- and short-term dynamics of the determinants of insurance penetration for the period 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 in 15 West African countries. The panel auto regressive distributed lag model was used on the quarterly data gathered. A cointegrating and short-run momentous connection was discovered between insurance penetration along with the independent variables, which were education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income. The error correction term’s significance and negative sign demonstrate that all variables are heading towards long-run equilibrium at a moderate speed of 56.4%. This further affirms that education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income determine insurance penetration in West Africa in the long run. In addition, the short-run causality revealed that all the pairs of regressors could jointly cause insurance penetration. The findings of this study recommend that the economy-wide policies by the government and the regulators of insurance markets in these economies should be informed by these significant factors. The restructuring of the education sector to ensure finance-related modules cut across every faculty in the higher education sector is also recommended. Furthermore, Bancassurance is also recommended to boost the easy penetration of the insurance sector using the relationship with the banking sector as a pathway.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals INFLASI DARI SUDUT PANDANG MONETER DAN FISKAL (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA BARAT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Zul Azhar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto ◽  
Nofitasari Nofitasari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply M2, interest rate, government spending and local tax on the inflation in West Sumatera. This type of research is descriptive research and secondary datain the form of time-series from quartely 1 2007 to 2017 quartely 4 using the method of Autoregresive Distributed Lag analysis. The results of this study indicate that money supply in the long run have a significant and positive effect on inflation West Sumatera. In the short run  and long run the interest rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Government spending in the Long run has a significant and negative effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Based on the result of this study can be concluded that there is inflation in West Sumatera is monetery of phenomenon in the long run. 

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

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