scholarly journals Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 151
Author(s):  
Hong Li ◽  
Yang Lu ◽  
Pintao Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Less Developed Countries ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Mortality Forecasting ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Less Developed Country ◽  
Mortality Improvement ◽  
Long Term Mortality

This paper proposes a coherent multi-population approach to mortality forecasting for less developed countries. The majority of these countries have witnessed faster mortality declines among the young and the working age populations during the past few decades, whereas in the more developed countries, the contemporary mortality declines have been more substantial among the elders. Along with the socioeconomic developments, the mortality patterns of the less developed countries may become closer to those of the more developed countries. As a consequence, forecasting the long-term mortality of a less developed country by simply extrapolating its historical patterns might lead to implausible results. As an alternative, this paper proposes to incorporate the mortality patterns of a group of more developed countries as the benchmark to improve the forecast for a less developed one. With long-term, between-country coherence in mind, we allow the less developed country’s age-specific mortality improvement rates to gradually converge with those of the benchmark countries during the projection phase. Further, we employ a data-driven, threshold hitting approach to control the speed of this convergence. Our method is applied to China, Brazil, and Nigeria. We conclude that taking into account the gradual convergence of mortality patterns can lead to more reasonable long-term forecasts for less developed countries.

The Uses of Foreign Policy in Indonesia An Approach to the Analysis of Foreign Policy in the Less Developed Countries

1972 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 356-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franklin B. Weinstein
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Clear Picture ◽  
The Political ◽  
Less Developed Countries ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Important Respect ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Less Developed Country

Most of the writing on foreign policy in the less developed countries stresses either the importance of idiosyncratic sources of policy or the identification of a number of relatively long-term factors which influence the formation of policy. These studies are helpful in many ways, but in one important respect they are unsatisfying. They do not give us a clear picture of how foreign policy relates to the political and economic problems that constitute the essence of being a less developed country.

scholarly journals Introducing Storage Concepts to Growers in Less-developed Countries

1991 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-116
Author(s):  
W. Grierson
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Less Developed Countries ◽  
Stages Of Development ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Storage Technology ◽  
Storage Methods ◽  
Horticultural Products ◽  
Extension Program

Under most circumstances, some type of storage, from ephemeral to long-term, is an asset in the marketing of horticultural products. However, attempts to transfer developed country (DC) storage technology to the less-developed countries (LDCs) can be futile unless two conditions are met: 1) There must be a prior extension program to introduce the concept of what produce storage involves and what benefits can be expected from its proper use; and 2) the storage techniques introduced must be appropriate for the area. In many circumstances it may be necessary to start with very simple “old-fashioned” methods. Stages of development in LDCs are described, together with suggestions as to appropriate storage methods for each stage and how to prepare for them.

Mortality forecasting using a modified CMI Mortality Projections Model for China II: cities, towns and counties

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Huang
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Speed Of Convergence ◽  
Historical Experience ◽  
Mortality Forecasting ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Mortality Improvement ◽  
Significant Mortality

AbstractIn this paper, we conduct the study of long-term age-sex-specific mortality forecasting for subpopulations in different areas of China: cities, towns and counties. We use a modified CMI (Continuous Mortality Investigation) Mortality Projections Model, which has been discussed in Huang & Browne (Paper I), for modelling purposes. From the historical experience, we find that people in cities have lower mortality rates and higher mortality improvement rates than people in towns and counties for most ages. If this trend continues, the mortality of different areas will diverge further in the future. From the projection results, we find that there will be significant mortality and life expectancy differences between cities, towns and counties for both males and females. Sensitivity analysis for long-term rates of mortality improvement and the speed of convergence from “initial” to “long-term” rates of mortality improvement are conducted. Uncertainties are attached to the central estimates to overcome the limitation of the original CMI approach from which only deterministic results can be obtained.

scholarly journals Developing Knowledge of Supply Chain Resilience in Less-Developed Countries in the Pandemic Age

Logistics ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
João M. Lopes ◽  
Sofia Gomes ◽  
Lassana Mané
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Less Developed Countries ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Supply Chain Resilience ◽  
Guinea Bissau ◽  
The Impact

The constraints imposed by the pandemic COVID-19 increased the risks of the disruption of supply chains, bringing new challenges to companies. These effects were felt more intensely in less-developed countries, which are highly dependent on imports of products and raw materials. This study aims to assess the impact of supply chain resilience in a less-developed country (Guinea-Bissau) using complex adaptive system theory. We used a qualitative methodology through multiple case studies. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with four companies. The semi-structured script contains questions about supply chain disruptions, vulnerabilities and resilience. The main results show that the companies in Guinea-Bissau, due to their dependence on the outside world and the absence of formal, larger and more diversified supply chains, suffered serious consequences with the disruption imposed by the pandemic. It was also concluded that the more resilient the supply chain, the fewer the impacts of crisis events and that the resilience of companies at this level depends on their obtaining competitive advantages over their competitors. The main practical implications of this study are the need to formalize the supply chain, diversify the supply of services and products of companies dependent on the exterior, adopt metrics that allow for the early detection of situations of supply chain disruption, effectively manage stocks and promote proactive crisis resolution strategies. Studies on the impact of resilience on supply chains in crises are scarce, especially on companies located in underdeveloped countries.

scholarly journals Surgical Proficiency Gain and Survival After Esophagectomy for Cancer

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (13) ◽  
pp. 1528-1536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheraz R. Markar ◽  
Hugh Mackenzie ◽  
Pernilla Lagergren ◽  
George B. Hanna ◽  
Jesper Lagergren
Keyword(s):  
Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Resection Margin ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Disease Specific Mortality ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Esophagectomy For Cancer ◽  
Disease Specific ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Purpose We aimed to identify the presence and length of esophagectomy proficiency gain curves in terms of short- and long-term mortality for esophageal cancer. Patients and Methods Patients who underwent esophagectomy for esophageal cancer between 1987 and 2010 with follow-up until 2014 were identified from a well-established, population-based, nationwide Swedish cohort study. Proficiency gain curves were created by using risk-adjusted cumulative sum analysis for 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year all-cause and disease-specific mortality measures. Similarly, the proficiency gain curves for lymph node harvest, resection margin status, and reoperation incidence were assessed as performance-contributing factors to the observed changes in long-term survival. Results Esophagectomies in 1,821 patients with esophageal cancer were conducted by 139 surgeons. The change-point in proficiency gain curve for all-cause 30-day mortality was early, at 15 cases, when mortality decreased from 7.9% to 3.1% (P < .001). Later change-points, which ranged from 35 to 59 cases, were observed for 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality rates, for which all-cause mortality decreased from 34.9% to 27.7% (P = .011), from 47.4% to 41.5% (P = .049), and from 31.4% to 19.1% (P = .009), respectively. Similar change-points were observed in disease-specific mortality at 1 and 3 years. There was a continuous increase in lymph node harvest, which did not plateau. Also, change-points were observed for resection margin with tumor involvement at 17 cases, with a reduction from 20.9% to 15.2% (P = .004), and for reoperation rate at 55 cases, with a reduction from 12.6% to 5.0% (P < .001). Conclusion The gain of proficiency in esophagectomy for cancer is associated with measurable changes in short- and long-term mortality results. These findings indicate a need for structured national training and mentorship programs for esophageal cancer surgery.

scholarly journals The Mediating Effect of Brand Trust on The Influence of Communication, Price, and Product Quality on Consumer Purchase Behaviour in a Less-Developed Country

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamal Mohammed Esmail Al-Ekam
Keyword(s):  
Product Quality ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Brand Trust ◽  
Product Price ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Brand Building ◽  
Perceived Product Quality ◽  
Less Developed Country

Brand trust is one of the key elements in brand building and securing customer loyalty, based on relationship marketing factors. The aim of this research was to examine the influence of perceived product price, perceived product quality and communication on brand trust, and the effect of brand trust on consumer purchase behaviour based on the relationship theory perspective. The research instrument was developed based on items taken from previous studies. Questionnaires were distributed to 1400 consumers in 10 primary and secondary schools in three towns in Sanaa, Ibb, and Aden in Yemen. Only 711 questionnaires were used for statistical analysis, using Partial Least Squares (PLS–SEM). Results indicated that trust has a positive significant impact on purchase behaviour. Trust is also a mediator between communication and purchase behaviour, and between perceived quality and purchase behaviour. In addition, this study showed that both perceived product quality and communication positively influence building brand trust. The constructed model has a good goodness-of-fit index. This research also discussed practical implications and applications in developing and less-developed countries.  

The Concept of a National Library in Less Developed Countries, with Special Reference to Africa

2003 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35
Author(s):  
Juan José Fuentes-Romero
Keyword(s):  
National Development ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Library Service ◽  
National Library ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Less Developed Country ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
National Libraries

Just as there is no one typical less developed country (LDC), although most such countries have many characteristics in common, so there are many different national library models in operation, all affected to a greater or lesser degree by these characteristics. Three major congresses in the 1960s greatly influenced the shape of national libraries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean region, emphasizing their importance as a fundamental element in national development. They agree on the most important functions: to give guidance to all the country's libraries; to serve researchers and users as fully as possible; to collect and conserve the nation's published output; to exercise bibliographic control over it, and to disseminate information about it. An analysis of studies by six writers on national libraries in LDCs reveals substantial differences, for example as to whether a national library service is preferable to a national library, and whether a national library can be grafted on to a university library. Major questions remain unanswered.

Mortality forecasting using a modified Continuous Mortality Investigation Mortality Projections Model for China I: methodology and country-level results

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Huang ◽  
Bridget Browne
Keyword(s):  
Research Field ◽  
Time Warping ◽  
Short History ◽  
Mortality Forecasting ◽  
Country Level ◽  
History Of ◽  
Mortality Projections ◽  
Dynamic Time ◽  
Mortality Improvement

AbstractIn this paper, we project future mortality rates for actuarial use with Chinese data using a modified Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) Mortality Projections Model. The model adopts a convergence structure from “initial” to “long-term” rates of mortality improvement as the process of projection. The initial rates of mortality improvement are derived using two-dimensional P-spline methodology. Given the short history of Chinese data, the long-term rates of mortality improvement are determined by borrowing information from international experience. K-means clustering with dynamic time warping distance is used to classify populations, which is novel in the actuarial mortality research field. The original CMI approach is deterministic, however, in this paper we make it stochastic using techniques outlined by Koller and described by Browne et al. Comparing our results with a pure extrapolative approach, we find that the CMI Mortality Projections Model is more suitable for long-term projections for China.

scholarly journals “There’s No Place Like Home”: Female EU Migrants in Belgrade

Two Homelands ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marija Brujić
Keyword(s):  
Middle Class ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Research Topic ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Female Migrants ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Less Developed Country ◽  
Analysis Of Narratives ◽  
The Eu

The subject of this paper is the anthropological analysis of narratives of female migrants from the EU who are living in Belgrade. The analysis uses the approaches of “transnationalism from below” and home studies. The paper addresses the question of what is home for EU citizens living outside the EU. The aim is to cast increased light on middle-class migrations from more developed countries to a less developed country. The main results show that the notion of home is intricately linked with the interviewees’ understanding of their transmigrant position and their “bifocal lives”. The study draws attention to educated and skilled EU migrants as a compelling research topic.

Long-Term Mortality in Children With Ischemic Stroke: A Nationwide Register-Based Cohort Study

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heléne E.K. Sundelin ◽  
Anna Walås ◽  
Jonas Söderling ◽  
Peter Bang ◽  
Jonas F. Ludvigsson
Keyword(s):  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Neurological Diseases ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
First Degree Relatives ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Long Term Mortality

Background and Purpose: Ischemic stroke is a common cause of death in adults, however, mortality after pediatric ischemic stroke is not well explored. We investigate long-term and cause-specific mortality in children with ischemic stroke and their first-degree relatives. Methods: Through nationwide Swedish registers, we identified 1606 individuals <18 years old with ischemic stroke between 1969 and 2016 and their first-degree relatives (n=5714). Each individual with ischemic stroke was compared with 10 reference individuals (controls) matched for age, sex, and county of residence. Our main analysis examined 1327 children with ischemic stroke still alive 1 week after the event. First-degree relatives to children with ischemic stroke were compared with first-degree relatives to the reference individuals. Using a Cox proportional hazard regression model, the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality was computed in individuals with pediatric ischemic stroke and their first-degree relatives. Results: The mortality rate in the first 6 months was 40.1 (95% CI, 24.7–55.6) per 1000 person-years compared with 1.1/1000 in controls (95% CI, 0.3–1.9). The overall mortality risk was hazard ratio (HR)=10.8 (95% CI, 8.1–14.3) and remained elevated beyond 20 years (HR=3.9 [95% CI, 2.1–7.1]). Children with ischemic stroke were at increased risk of death from neurological diseases (HR=29.9 [95% CI, 12.7–70.3]), cardiovascular diseases (HR=6.2 [95% CI, 1.8–22.2]), cancers (HR=6.5 [95% CI, 2.6–15.9]) and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (HR=49.2 [95% CI, 5.7–420.8]). First-degree relatives to children with ischemic stroke had an increased mortality risk (HR=1.21 [95% CI, 1.05–1.39]), with the highest risk among siblings (HR=1.52 [95% CI, 1.09–2.11]) and relatives to individuals with ischemic stroke >28 days of age (HR=1.23 [95% CI, 1.06–1.42]) compared with the relatives of the controls. Conclusions: Long-term mortality increased after pediatric ischemic stroke, even 20 years later, with neurological diseases as the most frequent cause of death.

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