scholarly journals Is Gold a Hedge against Stock Price Risk in U.S. or Indian Markets?

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Hemant Manuj
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Monthly Return ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship

We study whether gold acts as a hedge or a safe haven in U.S. and the Indian stock markets. These two stock markets have been chosen as representatives of the developed markets and the emerging markets, respectively, and are of significant interest to long-term investors. We apply a linear regression and a GARCH technique to monthly return series data on the S&P500, the BSE Sensex, and gold prices. We find that, for the period of our study, 1980–2020, gold has not served as a hedge or a safe haven for long-term investors in the U.S. or Indian stock markets. This holds true even across multiple sub-periods in our study period. Gold returns do not exhibit a significant negative relationship with stock returns in any of the chosen stock market scenarios, i.e., in times of extremely low returns as well as in the periods of high or low volatility. Equity investors in U.S. and Indian markets can use the findings of this study for optimising their portfolios. Additionally, central bankers and policy makers can use the findings for better outcomes with respect to their policies on holding of gold.

Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Budiandru Budiandru ◽  
Sari Yuniarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Investment Financing ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Operational Activities

Investment financing is one of the operational activities of Islamic banking to encourage the real sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic turmoil on investment financing, analyze the response to investment financing, and analyze each variable's contribution in explaining the diversity of investment financing. This study uses monthly time series data from 2009 to 2020 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates significantly affect Islamic banking investment financing in the long term. The response to investment financing is the fastest to achieve stability when it responds to shocks to the composite stock price index. Inflation is the most significant contribution in explaining diversity in investment financing. Islamic banking should increase the proportion of funding for investment. Customers can have a larger business scale to encourage economic growth, with investment financing increasing.JEL Classification: E22, G11, G24How to Cite:Budiandru., & Yuniarti, S. (2020). Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206.

Globalization, Poverty, Environmental Degradation and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Analysis of SAARC Regions

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Ejaz Ullah ◽  
Khair Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of poverty, globalization, and environmental degradation on economic growth in the selected SAARC countries. This study is employed panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) technique for empirical analysis using selected SAARC regions including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka over the period of 1980 to 2018. Globalization impacts economic growth positively and significantly.  In addition to this the significant negative relationship is found between population and economic growth. The results show that poverty is positively related with environmental degradation. Furthermore, the results indicate that globalization is positively and significantly associated with environmental degradation in the SAARC region. Finally, the results show that urbanization is positive and significantly associated with environmental degradation, which could be the serious concerns for the policy makers to control.

scholarly journals The impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on profitability of Islamic rural bank in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sanusi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank (BPRS) in Indonesia. Using monthly time series data from January 2010 - December 2018. The estimation model used is a vector error correction model to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results showed that CAR and LnTA had a significant positive relationship, while NPF, BOPO and IPI had a negative and significant relationship to the profitability of Islamic rural banks. But FDR and Inflation variables are not significantly related to the profitability of Islamic rural bank. The results leave implications for policy makers, investors and banking sector managers. Based on evidence that bank profitability is more influenced by internal banks (as specific as banks), this research can help Islamic rural banks to help them understand which factors are important to be analyzed to obtain higher profitability.

Risk, uncertainty and stock returns predictability – a case of emerging equity markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-455
Author(s):  
Rakesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Equity Markets ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the predictability of stock returns under risk and uncertainty of a set of 11 emerging equity markets (EEMs) during the pre- and post-crash periods. Design/methodology/approach Listed indices are considered to serve the proxy of stock markets with a structural break in data for the period: 2000-2014. As preliminary results highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, Threshold-GARCH (1,1) model is used to estimate the conditional volatility, which is further decomposed into expected and unexpected volatility. Findings Results highlight that the volatility has symmetric impact on stock returns during the pre-crash period and asymmetric impact during the post-crash period. While testing the relationship of stock returns, a significant positive (negative) relationship is found with expected volatility during the pre-crash (post-crash) periods. The stock returns are found positively related to unexpected volatility. Research limitations/implications Business, political and other market conditions of sample stock markets are fundamentally different. These economies were liberalized in different years, which may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets. Practical implications The findings highlight that investors consider the impact of expected volatility in forecasting of stock returns during the growth period. They realize returns in commensurate to risk of their portfolios. However, they significantly reduce their investments in response to expected volatility during the recession period. The positive relationship between stock returns and unexpected volatility highlights the fact that investors realize extra returns for exposing their portfolios to unexpected volatility. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made by using T-GARCH (1,1) procedure to analyse the problem. Given the emergence of emerging equity markets, new insight in dynamics of stock returns provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification under risk and uncertainty.

The Effects of State and Local Economic Incentives on Business Start-Ups in the United States: County-Level Evidence

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-187
Author(s):  
Mark Partridge ◽  
Sydney Schreiner ◽  
Alexandra Tsvetkova ◽  
Carlianne Elizabeth Patrick
Keyword(s):  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Labor Market Flexibility ◽  
State And Local ◽  
Start Ups

Even as economic incentives are increasingly used by policy makers to spur state and local economic development, their use is controversial among the public and academics. The authors examine whether state and local incentives lead to higher rates of business start-ups in metropolitan counties. Existing research indicates that start-ups are important for supporting (net) job creation, long-term growth, innovation, and development. The authors find that incentives have a statistically significant, negative relationship with start-up rates in total and for some industries including export-based and others that often receive incentives. The findings support critics who contend that incentives crowd out other economic activity, potentially reducing long-term growth. The authors also find that greater intersectoral job flows are positively linked to total start-ups, consistent with claims of those who advocate for policies that enhance labor market flexibility through reducing barriers to job mobility.

scholarly journals Review on Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets

Economies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai-Yin Woo ◽  
Chulin Mai ◽  
Michael McAleer ◽  
Wing-Keung Wong
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Behavioral Models ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Conflicting Evidence

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is one of the most important economic and financial hypotheses that have been tested over the past century. Due to many abnormal phenomena and conflicting evidence, otherwise known as anomalies against EMH, some academics have questioned whether EMH is valid, and pointed out that the financial literature has substantial evidence of anomalies, so that many theories have been developed to explain some anomalies. To address the issue, this paper reviews the theory and literature on market efficiency and market anomalies. We give a brief review on market efficiency and clearly define the concept of market efficiency and the EMH. We discuss some efforts that challenge the EMH. We review different market anomalies and different theories of Behavioral Finance that could be used to explain such market anomalies. This review is useful to academics for developing cutting-edge treatments of financial theory that EMH, anomalies, and Behavioral Finance underlie. The review is also beneficial to investors for making choices of investment products and strategies that suit their risk preferences and behavioral traits predicted from behavioral models. Finally, when EMH, anomalies and Behavioral Finance are used to explain the impacts of investor behavior on stock price movements, it is invaluable to policy makers, when reviewing their policies, to avoid excessive fluctuations in stock markets.

Stock returns and volatility dynamics in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G McMillan ◽  
Pornsawan Evans
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
World Trade Organisation ◽  
State Ownership ◽  
Lower State ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Listed Firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the nature of equity ownership of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for over 2,000 listed firms in China. The paper examines both the pattern of state ownership and the dynamics of stock returns and volatility. Firms under the control of SOEs dominate the Chinese stock markets and currently account for over three-quarters of total market capitalisation. Central SOEs are focused in strategic industries, while Local SOEs concentrate on pillar industries relating to consumer goods and services. Design/methodology/approach – The authors obtain firm-level data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and using panel estimation techniques examine the dynamics of returns, volatility and their relationship. Findings – The authors report an increase in state control among listed firms compared to earlier reported figures. This is contradictory to the expectation of a lower state influence following China joining of the World Trade Organisation in 2001. In examining the behaviour of stock returns the authors find evidence of daily and monthly autocorrelations that are larger and of a different sign to that reported for western markets. The authors also report evidence of volatility persistence but little evidence of volatility asymmetry, again in contrast to that often reported for other markets. Finally, the authors find evidence of either no or a negative relationship between returns and volatility (risk) that differs from our usual view of risk aversion. Originality/value – It is hoped, knowledge of these dynamics will increase the understanding of the Chinese equity market, which in turn is important for those engaged in international portfolio management and micro-structure modelling.

scholarly journals Kondisi makroekonomi dan kinerja perbankan di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-28
Author(s):  
Irma Febriana Mk ◽  
Nurbetty Herlina Sitorus ◽  
Rizka Malia
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Industrial Production Index ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship

The purpose of this study was to see how the long-term and short-term relationship between banking performance and macroeconomic variables. The analysis method used is the vector error correction model (VECM) with the variables ROA, BOPO, LDR, industrial production index, CPI, and BI rate. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between ROA and industrial production index in the long run and a significant negative relationship between ROA and CPI in the long and short term. There is a significant negative relationship between BOPO and the industrial production index in the long and short term. LDR has a significant negative relationship with all macro variables in the long term whereas, in the short term, LDR has a significant negative relationship with the CPI.  Keywords: Banking performance, Macroeconomic, Vector error correction models

scholarly journals Revisiting the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from India

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (231) ◽  
pp. 151-171
Author(s):  
Pratibha Saini ◽  
Krishna Muniyoor
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Primary Surplus

The main purpose of this study is to examine the debt-growth nexus in India over the period 1984-2019 using Bayer-Hanck and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration techniques. The findings of both techniques suggest the existence of a negative relationship between public debt and economic growth in the long run. The results also confirm the significant negative relationship between foreign exchange reserves and economic growth. Interestingly, the test results confirm the unidirectional causality running from public debt to economic growth in the case of India. From a policy perspective, reducing public debt is imperative to achieve long-term sustainable growth. Efforts should be made to circumvent the burden of burgeoning interest liabilities by generating a primary surplus, which will facilitate debt servicing and timely repayment of debt.

Gold's Price and Advanced Stock Markets

2020 ◽  
pp. 143-156
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Stoupos ◽  
Apostolos Kiohos
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Global Investors

Traditionally, the gold has been approved as a safe-haven investment after the collapse of Breton Woods. The global investors especially prefer to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing gold or its derivatives during financial crises. This research explores realized dynamic linkages between gold and the advanced stock market indices, after the end of the 2008 economic recession. This chapter used the fractionally co-integrated ECM by utilizing intraday data from 2013 and thereafter. The empirical outcomes support that there is a negative-realized dynamics between the advanced stock markets and the gold's price in the short and in the long run. Specifically, the short-term dynamics of gold's price seems to be higher on the French and Japanese stock market indices. Lastly, the long-term dynamics of gold's price seems to be higher on the Dow Jones and the FTSE100.

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