scholarly journals Methane Emission Estimates by the Global High-Resolution Inverse Model Using National Inventories

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 2489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenjuan Wang ◽  
Shamil Maksyutov ◽  
Aki Tsuruta ◽  
Rajesh Janardanan ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Methane Emission ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Inverse Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Research ◽  
Assimilation System ◽  
Gosat Satellite ◽  
Country Specific

We present a global 0.1° × 0.1° high-resolution inverse model, NIES-TM-FLEXPART-VAR (NTFVAR), and a methane emission evaluation using the Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite and ground-based observations from 2010–2012. Prior fluxes contained two variants of anthropogenic emissions, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v4.3.2 and adjusted EDGAR v4.3.2 which were scaled to match the country totals by national reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), augmented by biomass burning emissions from Global Fire Assimilation System (GFASv1.2) and wetlands Vegetation Integrative Simulator for Trace Gases (VISIT). The ratio of the UNFCCC-adjusted global anthropogenic emissions to EDGAR is 98%. This varies by region: 200% in Russia, 84% in China, and 62% in India. By changing prior emissions from EDGAR to UNFCCC-adjusted values, the optimized total emissions increased from 36.2 to 46 Tg CH4 yr−1 for Russia, 12.8 to 14.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for temperate South America, and 43.2 to 44.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 for contiguous USA, and the values decrease from 54 to 51.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for China, 26.2 to 25.5 Tg CH4 yr−1 for Europe, and by 12.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 for India. The use of the national report to scale EDGAR emissions allows more detailed statistical data and country-specific emission factors to be gathered in place compared to those available for EDGAR inventory. This serves policy needs by evaluating the national or regional emission totals reported to the UNFCCC.

scholarly journals Country-Scale Analysis of Methane Emissions with a High-Resolution Inverse Model Using GOSAT and Surface Observations

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Janardanan ◽  
Shamil Maksyutov ◽  
Aki Tsuruta ◽  
Fenjuan Wang ◽  
Yogesh K. Tiwari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Inverse Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Scale Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Natural Emissions

We employed a global high-resolution inverse model to optimize the CH4 emission using Greenhouse gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and surface observation data for a period from 2011–2017 for the two main source categories of anthropogenic and natural emissions. We used the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.3.2) for anthropogenic methane emission and scaled them by country to match the national inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Wetland and soil sink prior fluxes were simulated using the Vegetation Integrative Simulator of Trace gases (VISIT) model. Biomass burning prior fluxes were provided by the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). We estimated a global total anthropogenic and natural methane emissions of 340.9 Tg CH4 yr−1 and 232.5 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. Country-scale analysis of the estimated anthropogenic emissions showed that all the top-emitting countries showed differences with their respective inventories to be within the uncertainty range of the inventories, confirming that the posterior anthropogenic emissions did not deviate from nationally reported values. Large countries, such as China, Russia, and the United States, had the mean estimated emission of 45.7 ± 8.6, 31.9 ± 7.8, and 29.8 ± 7.8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively. For natural wetland emissions, we estimated large emissions for Brazil (39.8 ± 12.4 Tg CH4 yr−1), the United States (25.9 ± 8.3 Tg CH4 yr−1), Russia (13.2 ± 9.3 Tg CH4 yr−1), India (12.3 ± 6.4 Tg CH4 yr−1), and Canada (12.2 ± 5.1 Tg CH4 yr−1). In both emission categories, the major emitting countries all had the model corrections to emissions within the uncertainty range of inventories. The advantages of the approach used in this study were: (1) use of high-resolution transport, useful for simulations near emission hotspots, (2) prior anthropogenic emissions adjusted to the UNFCCC reports, (3) combining surface and satellite observations, which improves the estimation of both natural and anthropogenic methane emissions over spatial scale of countries.

Natural and anthropogenic methane emissions in West Siberia estimated using a wetland inventory, GOSAT and a regional tower network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shamil Maksyutov ◽  
Motoki Sasakawa ◽  
Rajesh Janardanan ◽  
Fenjuan Wang ◽  
Aki Tsuruta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
West Siberia ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Inverse Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Taiga Zone ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Near Surface

<p>West Siberia contributes a large fraction of Russian methane emissions, with both natural emissions from peatlands and anthropogenic emissions by oil and gas industries. To quantify anthropogenic emissions with atmospheric observations and inventories, we must better understand the natural wetland emissions.  We combine high-resolution wetland mapping based on Landsat data for whole West Siberian lowland with a database of in situ flux measurements to derive bottom-up wetland emission estimates. We use a global high-resolution methane flux inversion based on a Lagrangian-Eulerian coupled tracer transport model to estimate methane emissions in West Siberia using atmospheric methane data collected at the Siberian GHG monitoring network JR-STATION, ZOTTO, data by the global in situ network and GOSAT satellite observations. High-resolution prior fluxes were prepared for anthropogenic emissions (EDGAR), biomass burning (GFAS), and wetlands (VISIT). A global high-resolution wetland emission dataset was constructed using 0.5-degree monthly emission data simulated by the VISIT model and wetland area fraction map by the Global Lake and Wetlands Database (GLWD). We estimate biweekly flux corrections to prior flux fields for 2010 to 2015. The inverse model optimizes corrections to two categories of fluxes: anthropogenic and natural (wetlands). Based on fitting the model simulations to the observations, the inverse model provides upward corrections to West Siberian anthropogenic emissions in winter and wetland emissions in summer. The use of high-resolution atmospheric transport in the flux inversion, when compared to low-resolution transport modeling, enables a better fit to observations in winter, when anthropogenic emissions dominate variability of the near-surface methane concentration. We estimate 15% higher anthropogenic emissions than EDGAR v.4.3.2 inventory for whole Russia, with most of the correction attributed to West Siberia and the European part of Russia. Comparison of the inversion estimates with the bottom-up wetland emission inventory for West Siberia suggests a need to adjust the wetland emissions to match observed north-south gradient of emissions with higher emissions in the southern taiga zone.</p>

Country scale analysis of natural and anthropogenic methane emissions with a high-resolution inverse model using GOSAT and ground-based observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Janardanan ◽  
Shamil Maksyutov ◽  
Aki Tsuruta ◽  
Fenjuan Wang ◽  
Yogesh Tiwari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Inverse Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Scale Analysis ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Natural Emissions

<p>Here, we present the results of a global high-resolution inversion study of methane emissions and their analysis for the large emitting countries. We employ a global high-resolution inverse model to optimize CH<sub>4</sub> emissions using Greenhouse gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and surface observation data over the 2011-2017 period for the two main source categories of anthropogenic and natural emissions. As prior emissions, we used the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.3.2) for anthropogenic methane emission, scaled by country to match the national emissions reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Wetland and soil sink prior fluxes were simulated using Vegetation Integrative Simulator of Trace gases (VISIT) model. Biomass burning prior fluxes were provided by the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS). We estimate a global total anthropogenic and natural methane emissions of 340.9 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup> and 232.5 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>, respectively. This agrees with recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) estimates of 357 and 215 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>, respectively. Country-scale analysis of the estimated anthropogenic emissions shows that for all the top-emitting countries, differences with their respective nationally reported inventories are within the uncertainty range of the inventories. Large emitting countries such as China, Russia and the United States have mean estimated anthropogenic emission of 45.7±8.6, 31.9±7.8 and 29.8±7.8 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1 </sup>respectively. For natural emissions, we estimate large emissions for Brazil (39.8±12.4 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>), the United States (25.9±8.3 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>), Russia (13.2±9.3 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>), India (12.3±6.4 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>), and Canada (12.2±5.1 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>). In both emission categories, natural and anthropogenic, the major emitting countries all had model corrections to their emissions that were within the uncertainty range of the inventories and the inverse model uncertainty. As a special case, we evaluate anthropogenic emissions estimated for India (24.2±5.3 Tg yr<sup>-1</sup>) with aircraft observation data over urban regions over India. On average, the optimized profiles showed a better match with the observations compared to the prior profile confirming improved estimates by the model for India.</p>

scholarly journals 2010–2015 North American methane emissions, sectoral contributions, and trends: a high-resolution inversion of GOSAT satellite observations of atmospheric methane

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joannes D. Maasakkers ◽  
Daniel J. Jacob ◽  
Melissa P. Sulprizio ◽  
Tia R. Scarpelli ◽  
Hannah Nesser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Methane ◽  
Oil Gas ◽  
Gosat Satellite

Abstract. We use 2010–2015 GOSAT satellite observations of atmospheric methane columns over North America in a high- resolution inversion of methane emissions, including contributions from different sectors and long-term trends. The inversion involves analytical solution to the Bayesian optimization problem for a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) of the emission field with up to 0.5° × 0.625° resolution in concentrated source regions. Analytical solution provides a closed-form characterization of the information content from the inversion and facilitates the construction of a large ensemble of solutions exploring the effect of different uncertainties and assumptions. Prior estimates for the inversion include a gridded version of the EPA Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (GHGI) and the WetCHARTS model ensemble for wetlands. Our best estimate for mean 2010–2015 US anthropogenic emissions is 30.6 (range: 29.4–31.3) Tg a-1, slightly higher than the gridded EPA inventory (28.7 (26.4–36.2) Tg a-1). The main discrepancy is for the oil and gas production sectors where we find higher emissions than the GHGI by 35 % and 22 % respectively. The most recent version of the EPA GHGI revises downward its estimate of emissions from oil production and we find that these are a factor 2 lower than our estimate. Our best estimate of US wetland emissions is 10.2 (5.6–11.1) Tg a-1, on the low end of the prior WetCHARTS inventory uncertainty range (14.2 (3.3–32.4) Tg a-1) and calling for better understanding of these emissions. We find an increasing trend in US anthropogenic emissions over 2010–2015 of 0.4 % a-1, lower than previous GOSAT-based estimates but opposite to the decrease reported by the EPA GHGI. Most of this increase appears driven by unconventional oil/gas production in the eastern US. We also find that oil/gas production emissions in Mexico are higher than in the nationally reported inventory, though there is evidence for a 2010–2015 decrease in emissions from offshore oil production.

scholarly journals Exploring the nature of air quality over southwestern Ontario: main findings from the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 10461-10482 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Brook ◽  
P. A. Makar ◽  
D. M. L. Sills ◽  
K. L. Hayden ◽  
R. McLaren
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Urban Heat Islands ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Lake Breeze ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
Air Quality Model ◽  
Quality Model

Abstract. This paper serves as an overview and discusses the main findings from the Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) in southwestern Ontario in 2007. This region is dominated by the Great Lakes, shares borders with the United States and consistently experiences the highest ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter concentrations in Canada. The purpose of BAQS-Met was to improve our understanding of how lake-driven meteorology impacts air quality in the region, and to improve models used for forecasting and policy scenarios. Results show that lake breeze occurrence frequencies and inland penetration distances were significantly greater than realized in the past. Due to their effect on local meteorology, the lakes were found to enhance secondary O3 and aerosol formation such that local anthropogenic emissions have their impact closer to the populated source areas than would otherwise occur in the absence of the lakes. Substantial spatial heterogeneity in O3 was observed with local peaks typically 30 ppb above the regional values. Sulfate and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) enhancements were also linked to local emissions being transported in the lake breeze circulations. This study included the first detailed evaluation of regional applications of a high-resolution (2.5 km grid) air quality model in the Great Lakes region. The model showed that maxima in secondary pollutants occur in areas of convergence, in localized updrafts and in distinct pockets over the lake surfaces. These effects are caused by lake circulations interacting with the synoptic flow, with each other or with circulations induced by urban heat islands. Biogenic and anthropogenic emissions were both shown to play a role in the formation of SOA in the region. Detailed particle measurements and multivariate receptor models reveal that while individual particles are internally mixed, they often exist within more complex external mixtures. This makes it difficult to predict aerosol optical properties and further highlights the challenges facing aerosol modelling. The BAQS-Met study has led to a better understanding of the value of high-resolution (2.5 km) modelling for air quality and meteorological predictions and has led to several model improvements.

scholarly journals CTDAS-Lagrange v1.0: A high-resolution data assimilation system for regional carbon dioxide observations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei He ◽  
Ivar R. van der Velde ◽  
Arlyn E. Andrews ◽  
Colm Sweeney ◽  
John Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Sensitivity Tests ◽  
Lagrange System ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Flux Adjustment ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. We have implemented a regional carbon dioxide data assimilation system based on the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model, the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research meteorological fields (WRF-STILT). With this system, named as CTDAS‑Lagrange, we simultaneously optimize terrestrial biosphere fluxes and four parameters that adjust the lateral boundary conditions (BCs) against CO2 observations from the NOAA ESRL North America tall tower and aircraft Programmable Flask Packages (PFPs) sampling program. Least-squares optimization is performed with a time-stepping ensemble Kalman smoother, over a time window of 10 days and assimilating sequentially a time series of observations. Because the WRF-STILT footprints are pre-computed, it is computationally efficient to run the CTDAS-Lagrange system. To estimate the uncertainties of the optimized fluxes from the system, we performed sensitivity tests with various a priori biosphere fluxes (SiBCASA, SiB3, CT2013B) and BCs (optimized mole fraction fields from CT2013B and CTE2014, and an empirical data set derived from aircraft observations), as well as with a variety of choices on the ways that fluxes are adjusted (additive or multiplicative), covariance length scales, biosphere flux covariances, BC parameter uncertainties, and model-data mismatches. In pseudo-data experiments, we show that in our implementation the additive flux adjustment method is more flexible in optimizing NEE than the multiplicative flux adjustment method, and that the CTDAS-Lagrange system has the ability to correct for the potential biases in the lateral boundary conditions and to resolve large biases in the prior biosphere fluxes. Using real observations, we have derived a range of estimates for the optimized carbon fluxes from a series of sensitivity tests, which places the North American carbon sink for the year 2010 in a range from −0.92 to −1.26 PgC/yr. This is comparable to the TM5-based estimates of CarbonTracker (version CT2016, −0.91 ± 1.10 PgC/yr) and CarbonTracker Europe (version CTE2016, −0.91 ± 0.31 PgC/yr). We conclude that CTDAS-Lagrange can offer a versatile and computationally attractive alternative to these global systems for regional estimates of carbon fluxes, which can take advantage of high-resolution Lagrangian footprints that are increasingly easy to obtain.

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