Parametric Models to Characterize the Phenology of the Lowveld Savanna at Skukuza, South Africa

Mathematical models, such as the logistic curve, have been extensively used to model the temporal evolution of biological processes, though other similarly shaped functions could be (and sometimes have been) used for this purpose. Most previous studies focused on agricultural regions in the Northern Hemisphere and were based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This paper compares the capacity of four parametric double S-shaped models (Gaussian, Hyperbolic Tangent, Logistic, and Sine) to represent the seasonal phenology of an unmanaged, protected savanna biome in South Africa’s Lowveld, using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) generated by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer-High Resolution (MISR-HR) processing system on the basis of data originally collected by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument since 24 February 2000. FAPAR time series are automatically split into successive vegetative seasons, and the models are inverted against those irregularly spaced data to provide a description of the seasonal fluctuations despite the presence of noise and missing values. The performance of these models is assessed by quantifying their ability to account for the variability of remote sensing data and to evaluate the Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) of vegetation, as well as by evaluating their numerical efficiency. Simulated results retrieved from remote sensing are compared to GPP estimates derived from field measurements acquired at Skukuza’s flux tower in the Kruger National Park, which has also been operational since 2000. Preliminary results indicate that (1) all four models considered can be adjusted to fit an FAPAR time series when the temporal distribution of the data is sufficiently dense in both the growing and the senescence phases of the vegetative season, (2) the Gaussian and especially the Sine models are more sensitive than the Hyperbolic Tangent and Logistic to the temporal distribution of FAPAR values during the vegetative season, and, in particular, to the presence of long temporal gaps in the observational data, and (3) the performance of these models to simulate the phenology of plants is generally quite sensitive to the presence of unexpectedly low FAPAR values during the peak period of activity and to the presence of long gaps in the observational data. Consequently, efforts to screen out outliers and to minimize those gaps, especially during the rainy season (vegetation’s growth phase), would go a long way to improve the capacity of the models to adequately account for the evolution of the canopy cover and to better assess the relation between FAPAR and GPP.

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Method for Mapping Rice Fields in Complex Landscape Areas Based on Pre-Trained Convolutional Neural Network from HJ-1 A/B Data

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi7110418 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 418 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Tian Jiang ◽

Xiangnan Liu ◽

Ling Wu

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Deep Learning ◽

Convolutional Neural Network ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Southern China ◽

Series Data ◽

Support Vector ◽

Complex Landscape

Accurate and timely information about rice planting areas is essential for crop yield estimation, global climate change and agricultural resource management. In this study, we present a novel pixel-level classification approach that uses convolutional neural network (CNN) model to extract the features of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time series curve for classification. The goal is to explore the practicability of deep learning techniques for rice recognition in complex landscape regions, where rice is easily confused with the surroundings, by using mid-resolution remote sensing images. A transfer learning strategy is utilized to fine tune a pre-trained CNN model and obtain the temporal features of the EVI curve. Support vector machine (SVM), a traditional machine learning approach, is also implemented in the experiment. Finally, we evaluate the accuracy of the two models. Results show that our model performs better than SVM, with the overall accuracies being 93.60% and 91.05%, respectively. Therefore, this technique is appropriate for estimating rice planting areas in southern China on the basis of a pre-trained CNN model by using time series data. And more opportunity and potential can be found for crop classification by remote sensing and deep learning technique in the future study.

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Relating Spatiotemporal Patterns of Forest Fires Burned Area and Duration to Diurnal Land Surface Temperature Anomalies

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs10111777 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1777 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Carmine Maffei ◽

Silvia Alfieri ◽

Massimo Menenti

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Land Surface Temperature ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Land Surface ◽

Fire Danger ◽

Parametric Models ◽

Burned Area ◽

Informative Content

Forest fires are a major source of ecosystem disturbance. Vegetation reacts to meteorological factors contributing to fire danger by reducing stomatal conductance, thus leading to an increase of canopy temperature. The latter can be detected by remote sensing measurements in the thermal infrared as a deviation of observed land surface temperature (LST) from climatological values, that is as an LST anomaly. A relationship is thus expected between LST anomalies and forest fires burned area and duration. These two characteristics are indeed controlled by a large variety of both static and dynamic factors related to topography, land cover, climate, weather (including those affecting LST) and anthropic activity. To investigate the predicting capability of remote sensing measurements, rather than constructing a comprehensive model, it would be relevant to determine whether anomalies of LST affect the probability distributions of burned area and fire duration. This research approached the outlined knowledge gap through the analysis of a dataset of forest fires in Campania (Italy) covering years 2003–2011 against estimates of LST anomaly. An LST climatology was first computed from time series of daily Aqua-MODIS LST data (product MYD11A1, collection 6) over the longest available sequence of complete annual datasets (2003–2017), through the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm. HANTS was also used to create individual annual models of LST data, to minimize the effect of varying observation geometry and cloud contamination on LST estimates while retaining its seasonal variation. LST anomalies where thus quantified as the difference between LST annual models and LST climatology. Fire data were intersected with LST anomaly maps to associate each fire with the LST anomaly value observed at its position on the day previous to the event. Further to this step, the closest probability distribution function describing burned area and fire duration were identified against a selection of parametric models through the maximization of the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit. Parameters of the identified distributions conditional to LST anomaly where then determined along their confidence intervals. Results show that in the study area log-transformed burned area is described by a normal distribution, whereas log-transformed fire duration is closer to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of these distributions conditional to LST anomaly show clear trends with increasing LST anomaly; significance of this observation was verified through a likelihood ratio test. This confirmed that LST anomaly is a covariate of both burned area and fire duration. As a consequence, it was observed that conditional probabilities of extreme events appear to increase with increasing positive deviations of LST from its climatology values. This confirms the stated hypothesis that LST anomalies affect forest fires burned area and duration and highlights the informative content of time series of LST with respect to fire danger.

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Time Series Analysis of Land Cover Change in Dry Mountains: Insights from the Tajik Pamirs

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13193951 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 3951

Author(s):

Kim André Vanselow ◽

Harald Zandler ◽

Cyrus Samimi

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Demographic Data ◽

Mountainous Areas ◽

Generalized Additive Mixed Models ◽

Additive Mixed Models ◽

Irregular Data

Greening and browning trends in vegetation have been observed in many regions of the world in recent decades. However, few studies focused on dry mountains. Here, we analyze trends of land cover change in the Western Pamirs, Tajikistan. We aim to gain a deeper understanding of these changes and thus improve remote sensing studies in dry mountainous areas. The study area is characterized by a complex set of attributes, making it a prime example for this purpose. We used generalized additive mixed models for the trend estimation of a 32-year Landsat time series (1988–2020) of the modified soil adjusted vegetation index, vegetation data, and environmental and socio-demographic data. With this approach, we were able to cope with the typical challenges that occur in the remote sensing analysis of dry and mountainous areas, including background noise and irregular data. We found that greening and browning trends coexist and that they vary according to the land cover class, topography, and geographical distribution. Greening was detected predominantly in agricultural and forestry areas, indicating direct anthropogenic drivers of change. At other sites, greening corresponds well with increasing temperature. Browning was frequently linked to disastrous events, which are promoted by increasing temperatures.

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Spatial Pattern of Agricultural Productivity Trends in Malawi

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12041313 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1313

Author(s):

Leah M. Mungai ◽

Joseph P. Messina ◽

Sieglinde Snapp

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Agricultural Productivity ◽

Household Survey ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Series Data ◽

Maize Crop

This study aims to assess spatial patterns of Malawian agricultural productivity trends to elucidate the influence of weather and edaphic properties on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) seasonal time series data over a decade (2006–2017). Spatially-located positive trends in the time series that can’t otherwise be accounted for are considered as evidence of farmer management and agricultural intensification. A second set of data provides further insights, using spatial distribution of farmer reported maize yield, inorganic and organic inputs use, and farmer reported soil quality information from the Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS3) and (IHS4), implemented between 2010–2011 and 2016–2017, respectively. Overall, remote-sensing identified areas of intensifying agriculture as not fully explained by biophysical drivers. Further, productivity trends for maize crop across Malawi show a decreasing trend over a decade (2006–2017). This is consistent with survey data, as national farmer reported yields showed low yields across Malawi, where 61% (2010–11) and 69% (2016–17) reported yields as being less than 1000 Kilograms/Hectare. Yields were markedly low in the southern region of Malawi, similar to remote sensing observations. Our generalized models provide contextual information for stakeholders on sustainability of productivity and can assist in targeting resources in needed areas. More in-depth research would improve detection of drivers of agricultural variability.

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Detecting Cover Crop End-Of-Season Using VENµS and Sentinel-2 Satellite Imagery

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12213524 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (21) ◽

pp. 3524

Author(s):

Feng Gao ◽

Martha C. Anderson ◽

W. Dean Hively

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Cover Crops ◽

Cover Crop ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽

Agricultural Research ◽

Agricultural Landscapes ◽

Absolute Difference ◽

Sentinel 2

Cover crops are planted during the off-season to protect the soil and improve watershed management. The ability to map cover crop termination dates over agricultural landscapes is essential for quantifying conservation practice implementation, and enabling estimation of biomass accumulation during the active cover period. Remote sensing detection of end-of-season (termination) for cover crops has been limited by the lack of high spatial and temporal resolution observations and methods. In this paper, a new within-season termination (WIST) algorithm was developed to map cover crop termination dates using the Vegetation and Environment monitoring New Micro Satellite (VENµS) imagery (5 m, 2 days revisit). The WIST algorithm first detects the downward trend (senescent period) in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and then refines the estimate to the two dates with the most rapid rate of decrease in NDVI during the senescent period. The WIST algorithm was assessed using farm operation records for experimental fields at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center (BARC). The crop termination dates extracted from VENµS and Sentinel-2 time-series in 2019 and 2020 were compared to the recorded termination operation dates. The results show that the termination dates detected from the VENµS time-series (aggregated to 10 m) agree with the recorded harvest dates with a mean absolute difference of 2 days and uncertainty of 4 days. The operational Sentinel-2 time-series (10 m, 4–5 days revisit) also detected termination dates at BARC but had 7% missing and 10% false detections due to less frequent temporal observations. Near-real-time simulation using the VENµS time-series shows that the average lag times of termination detection are about 4 days for VENµS and 8 days for Sentinel-2, not including satellite data latency. The study demonstrates the potential for operational mapping of cover crop termination using high temporal and spatial resolution remote sensing data.

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Joint Modeling of Local and Global Temporal Dynamics for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence ◽

10.1609/aaai.v34i04.6056 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 34 (04) ◽

pp. 5956-5963

Author(s):

Xianfeng Tang ◽

Huaxiu Yao ◽

Yiwei Sun ◽

Charu Aggarwal ◽

Prasenjit Mitra ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Real World ◽

Missing Values ◽

Temporal Dynamics ◽

Multivariate Time Series ◽

Temporal Distribution ◽

Joint Modeling ◽

Adversarial Training ◽

Global Patterns ◽

Real World Datasets

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting is widely used in various domains, such as meteorology and traffic. Due to limitations on data collection, transmission, and storage, real-world MTS data usually contains missing values, making it infeasible to apply existing MTS forecasting models such as linear regression and recurrent neural networks. Though many efforts have been devoted to this problem, most of them solely rely on local dependencies for imputing missing values, which ignores global temporal dynamics. Local dependencies/patterns would become less useful when the missing ratio is high, or the data have consecutive missing values; while exploring global patterns can alleviate such problem. Thus, jointly modeling local and global temporal dynamics is very promising for MTS forecasting with missing values. However, work in this direction is rather limited. Therefore, we study a novel problem of MTS forecasting with missing values by jointly exploring local and global temporal dynamics. We propose a new framework øurs, which leverages memory network to explore global patterns given estimations from local perspectives. We further introduce adversarial training to enhance the modeling of global temporal distribution. Experimental results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of øurs for MTS forecasting with missing values and its robustness under various missing ratios.

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Fire Recurrence and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Dynamics in Brazilian Savanna

Fire ◽

10.3390/fire2010001 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 1 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Níckolas Santana

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Trend Analysis ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽

Management Policy ◽

Brazilian Savanna ◽

Vegetation Phenology ◽

Modis Ndvi ◽

Fire Recurrence

Fire is one of the main modeling agents of savanna ecosystems, affecting their distribution, physiognomy and species diversity. Changes in the natural fire regime on savannas cause disturbances in the structural characteristics of vegetation. Theses disturbances can be effectively monitored by time series of remote sensing data in different terrestrial ecosystems such as savannas. This study used trend analysis in NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)–MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) time series to evaluate the influence of different fire recurrences on vegetation phenology of the Brazilian savanna in the period from 2001 to 2016. The trend analysis indicated several factors responsible for changes in vegetation: (a) The absence of fire in savanna phytophysiognomies causes a constant increase in MODIS–NDVI, ranging from 0.001 to 0.002 per year, the moderate presence of fire in these areas does not cause significant changes, while the high recurrence results in decreases of MODIS–NDVI, ranging from −0.002 to −0.008 per year; (b) Forest areas showed a high decrease in NDVI, reaching up to −0.009 MODIS–NDVI per year, but not related to fire recurrence, indicating the high degradation of these phytophysiognomies; (c) Changes in vegetation are highly connected to the protection status of the area, such as areas of integral protection or sustainable use, and consequently their conservation status. Areas with greater vegetation conservation had more than 70% of positive changes in pixels with significant tendencies. Absence or presence of fire are the main agents of vegetation change in areas with lower anthropic influence. These results reinforce the need for a suitable fire management policy for the different types of Cerrado phytophysiognomies, in addition to highlighting the efficiency of remote sensing time series for evaluation of vegetation phenology.

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Evaluating remote sensing of deciduous forest phenology at multiple spatial scales using PhenoCam imagery

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-11-4305-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 11 (16) ◽

pp. 4305-4320 ◽

Cited By ~ 135

Author(s):

S. T. Klosterman ◽

K. Hufkens ◽

J. M. Gray ◽

E. Melaas ◽

O. Sonnentag ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Curve Fitting ◽

Satellite Remote Sensing ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Deciduous Forest ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Visual Assessment ◽

Statistical Uncertainty ◽

Near Surface

Abstract. Plant phenology regulates ecosystem services at local and global scales and is a sensitive indicator of global change. Estimates of phenophase transition dates, such as the start of spring or end of fall, can be derived from sensor-based time series, but must be interpreted in terms of biologically relevant events. We use the PhenoCam archive of digital repeat photography to implement a consistent protocol for visual assessment of canopy phenology at 13 temperate deciduous forest sites throughout eastern North America, and to perform digital image analysis for time-series-based estimation of phenophase transition dates. We then compare these results to remote sensing metrics of phenophase transition dates derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. We present a new type of curve fit that uses a generalized sigmoid function to estimate phenology dates, and we quantify the statistical uncertainty of phenophase transition dates estimated using this method. Results show that the generalized sigmoid provides estimates of dates with less statistical uncertainty than other curve-fitting methods. Additionally, we find that dates derived from analysis of high-frequency PhenoCam imagery have smaller uncertainties than satellite remote sensing metrics of phenology, and that dates derived from the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) have smaller uncertainty than those derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Near-surface time-series estimates for the start of spring are found to closely match estimates derived from visual assessment of leaf-out, as well as satellite remote-sensing-derived estimates of the start of spring. However late spring and fall phenology metrics exhibit larger differences between near-surface and remote scales. Differences in late spring phenology between near-surface and remote scales are found to correlate with a landscape metric of deciduous forest cover. These results quantify the effect of landscape heterogeneity when aggregating to the coarser spatial scales of remote sensing, and demonstrate the importance of accurate curve fitting and vegetation index selection when analyzing and interpreting phenology time series.

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Assessing and monitoring the vulnerability to drought and climate anomalies of Mediterranenan oak forests by using NDVI

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17113 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Maria Castellaneta ◽

Angelo Rita ◽

J. Julio Camarero ◽

Michele Colangelo ◽

Angelo Nolè ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Time Series ◽

Tree Mortality ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Google Earth ◽

Oak Forests ◽

Summer Drought ◽

Area Index ◽

Ndvi Time Series ◽

The Impact

Several die-off episodes related to heat weaves and drought spells have evidenced the high vulnerability of Mediterranean oak forests. These events consisted in the loss in tree vitality and manifested as growths decline, elevated crown transparency (defoliation) and rising tree mortality rate. In this context, the changes in vegetation productivity and canopy greenness may represent valuable proxies to analyze how extreme climatic events trigger forest die-off. Such changes in vegetation status may be analyzed using remote-sensing data, specifically multi-temporal spectral information. For instance, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measures changes in vegetation greenness and is a proxy of changes in leaf area index (LAI), forest aboveground biomass and productivity. In this study, we analyzed the temporal patterns of vegetation in three Mediterranean oak forests showing recent die-off in response to the 2017 severe summer drought. For this purpose, we used an open-source platform (Google Earth Engine) to extract collections of MODIS NDVI time-series from 2000 to 2019. The analysis of both NDVI trends and anomalies were used to infer differential patterns of vegetation phenology among sites comparing plots where most trees were declining and showed high defoliation (test) versus plots were most trees were considered healthy (ctrl) and showed low or no defoliation. Here we discuss: i) the likely offset in NDVI time-series between test- versus ctrl- sites; and ii) the impact of summer droughts &#160;on NDVI.Keywords: climate change, forest vulnerability, time series, remote sensing.

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