scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis on DPRK: Will Grain Yield Influence Foreign Policy Tendency?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2711
Author(s):  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Jun He ◽  
Guanghui Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Grain Production ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
The North ◽  
Moderate Policy ◽  
The Impact

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is the hub of Northeast Asia and its geopolitics is of great significance, whose foreign policy trend is not only related to the peace and stability of the region, but also one of the major variables affecting cooperation in Northeast Asia. According to the data on North Korea’s grain yield collected by the Korea National Statistical Office, supplemented by the data on international food aid to North Korea collected by the World Food Programme, and combined with the judgment of 10 experts from China, South Korea and the United States on the Hawk and Dove Index of North Korea’s foreign policy from 1990 to 2018, we use empirical mode decomposition wavelet transform data analysis and feature extraction methods to study the impact relationship, and OLS regression analysis to study the actual cycle of transformation. We found that: (1) North Korea’s grain output is an important indicator that affects its foreign policy tendency (hawks or doves). The hawk refers to those who take a tough attitude in policy and prefer rigid means such as containment, intimidation and conflicts; the dove refers to those who take mild attitude in policy, and prefer to adopt flexible means such as negotiation, cooperation, and coordination. When it comes to grain yield increase, North Korea’s foreign policy tends to be hawkish; when it comes to grain reduction, its dovish tendency will be on the rise. This is because food increase can alleviate grain shortage in North Korea and enhance its ability to adopt tough policies in its foreign policy. However, decreases in grain production will lead to adopt a more moderate policy and seek international cooperation and assistance to ease the internal pressure caused by grain shortage. (2) North Korea’s grain yield influencing its foreign policy (hawks or doves) has a lag phase of about 3 years. Such being the case, the accumulated grain during the production increase period has enhanced North Korea’s ability to cope with grain reduction in the short term. Secondly, the North Korean government blames the reduction on foreign sanctions, which will instead make the North Korean people more determined to resist external pressure. Therefore, we can use the changes in North Korea’s grain output to predict the direction of its foreign policy so as to more accurately judge the development of the Korean Peninsula and more effectively promote the process of peace and cooperation in Northeast Asia. We concluded that grain production will affect its policy sustainability in North Korea.

A Comparative Study on the Attitudes of Foreign Correspondents in Korea: Focusing on Their Views on North Korea

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-110
Author(s):  
Byung Jong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Editorial Policy ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Foreign Correspondents ◽  
The North ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Because newspaper readers or television viewers cannot directly experience or witness events that are happening in foreign countries, they have to rely heavily on foreign correspondents for their perspectives on the world. But the views of foreign correspondents can never be fully objective. Their views are often shaped by the government policies of the countries their companies belong to. Also, their attitudes are affected by the editorial policies of the companies they work for. Particularly for such controversial issues as North Korea, foreign correspondents' viewpoints are highly influenced by their government and company policies. The question is how foreign correspondents react when their government foreign policy is different from their company editorial policy. To examine the impact of government and company policies on the attitudes of foreign correspondents, this paper interviewed eight foreign correspondents covering North Korea. The results show government foreign policy and company editorial policy strongly influence the foreign correspondents' attitudes toward the North.

President Moon Jae-in's Policy on the Settlement of the Inter-Korean Relations: Searching for a Balance between the Desirable and the Possible

2021 ◽  
pp. 107-117
Author(s):  
Valery Yu. Mishin ◽  
◽  
Anna V. Simonenok ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
The Republic

Moon Jae-in came to power in May 2017 in the wake of the Korean political crisis and impeachment of the previous president Park Geyn-hye. Since the very first days of his leadership President Moon has set a course for a sequential transformation of the inter-Korean relations and prevention of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The cornerstone of his program was the idea that the denuclearization of North Korea and the establishment of the long-lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula is possible provided that the North-South relations are normalized and Pyongyang is involved into the constructive peaceful dialogue. The authors demonstrate how Moon Jae-in was able to start the renaissance in the inter-Koran relations. He used the experience of the previous liberal governments of the Republic of Korea and successfully developed and enhanced the famous Sunshine Policy with his own ideas. The first stage of Moon Jane-in's presidency was marked with some serious foreign policy achievements. Thanks to the tactic of “summit diplomacy” President Moon was able to achieve significant reduction in tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which resulted in the fact that relations between the North and the South became more friendly and trustworthy. The historical documents signed during these summits - the Panmunjom Declaration (April 2018) and the Comprehensive Military Agreement (September 2018) - and their fast practical implementation can also be considered as President Moon's success. Further advancement of Moon Jae-in's course for building positive relationships with the DPRK faced serious obstruction from the United States. The authors show how simultaneously with settlement of inter-Korean relations President Moon had to deal with another difficult task - neutralization of the external factors (US sanctions and disagreements between Washington and Pyongyang) that were harmful for the development of the North Korea-South Korea relations. The tactics of being a mediator between the United States and North Korea chosen by Moon Jae-in was quite efficient in the beginning. The blatant enemies - Pyongyang and Washington - clamped down on their confrontation and sat at the negotiating table. However, the intransigence of Washington on the issue of a gradual and phase-based denuclearization of North Korea and withdrawal of sanctions altogether with the non-constructive criticism of the South Korean opposition made Moon Jae-in a hostage of the situation, limiting his potentially independent and substantive steps in foreign policy. Meanwhile, the authors of the research have come to the conclusion that on some issues President Moon was able to achieve much more than his predecessors. Despite the fact that he was unable to achieve a full-scaled settlement of the inter-Korean relations he did everything possible under the existing circumstances. Nowadays one can say that the challenges of the North Korean nuclear missile program and security on the Korean Peninsula are no longer entirely military topics, they are even more likely to be diplomatic issues. This fact is un-doubtfully his great accomplishment. Thus, it is possible to foresee good perspectives for the further declining level of the regional tensions and for the development of the inter-Korean relations.

Reluctant Reconciliation: South Korea's tentative détente with North Korea in the Nixon era, 1969–72

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-94
Author(s):  
CHOI LYONG
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Short Article ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis article discusses the impact and implications of Sino-American reconciliation on South Korea's policy towards its conflict with North Korea as well as its effect on South Korean politics in the early 1970s. Specifically, this article will examine how the Park regime altered its policy toward the North in response to the demands of the Nixon administration, before discussing the limitations of the policy in terms of the hostile approach of the Park regime toward Pyongyang during its talks with North Korea in 1972.Based on recent findings in the South Korean and American archives, and an interview with former KCIA official Gang Indeok, this article contends that this particular focus provides an interesting case study to explain the impact of global changes on the domestic politics of specific nation(s) during the Cold War era. Along with many other American client states, the Republic of Korea misunderstood the objective of the United States before Nixon announced his Doctrine in 1969 and intention to reduce American support for Park. To be sure, it was not Washington's intention to build a democratic country in the Korean Peninsula. Rather, as Westad has indicated, the superpower sought greater control over the world and the expansion and extension of its power. This short article will thus demonstrate the process by which the client states of the United States—in particular, South Korea—came to understand the real aims of Washington and learned how to utilize these American intentions for their own national interest.

South Korean Politics and Foreign Policy in 2017 and 2018

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 123-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaewoo CHOO
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South Korea ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
Basic Strategy ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The North ◽  
High Altitude Area

The election of Moon Jae-in in South Korea signals a shift to a more conciliatory approach towards North Korea. Moon’s basic strategy towards the North contradicts that of the United States, emphasising a “dual-track” policy of seeking North Korea’s denuclearisation while calling for dialogue to facilitate inter-Korean summit and not North Korea’s denuclearisation. Moon’s acceptance of China’s “Three oppositions” to the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defence is controversial as they are not within Korea’s jurisdiction.

The North Korean Nuclear Dilemma: Does China Have Leverage?

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 107-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiqi Zhang ◽  
Ginger L. Denton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Weapons ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

North Korea has repeatedly defied the international community with regards to its nuclear weapons programme. Many look to China for leverage to change North Korea’s behaviour. This study reviews the development of the China–North Korean relationship and conducts a statistical analysis on the impact of China’s influence on North Korea. Our analysis finds China’s leverage on North Korea to be nuanced. We maintain that North Korea has been wary of China’s influence. Complete isolation or pressure from China under certain conditions will render North Korea more resistant to China’s influence. We also suggest that the key to the North Korean issue is still in the hands of the United States and the entire international community through the use of an engagement strategy.

The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: Avoiding the Road to Perdition

2003 ◽  
Vol 102 (663) ◽  
pp. 152-169
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Road ◽  
The North ◽  
Constructive Engagement ◽  
Nuclear Crisis

Confrontational United States policies toward North Korea, adopted unilaterally, would not only exacerbate the nuclear crisis but also undermine United States relations with Northeast Asia as a whole. … The United States would end up with the worst of both worlds: a nuclear-capable North Korea and severely strained relations with key powers important to United States interests globally as well as regionally. Conversely, by pursuing constructive engagement in concert with its friends and allies in the region, the United States would maximize the pressure on North Korea for an acceptable nuclear settlement and promote the long-term United States objective of liberalizing the North Korean system.

scholarly journals Current Prospects of Korean Reunification against the Background of the Interstate Relations

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-73
Author(s):  
Wojciech Stankiewicz
Keyword(s):  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
General Situation ◽  
The South ◽  
Interstate Relations ◽  
Aggressive Approach ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Forecasts predicting the reunification of the Korean Peninsula were common throughout the 1990s. Since then, enthusiasm for such predictions has dampened, and though the fundamental assumption of reunification remains, predictions of when and how this will happen have been more restrained. Reunification leaves two unresolved yet interdependent issues: reunification itself, which is the urgent challenge; and the strategic issues that emerge from reunification, which have the potential to fundamentally transform strategic relations in the region of Northeast Asia. Within this context, this paper examines the prospects of Korean reunification against the background of the interstate relations. Initially, it will establish the framework from which such scenarios will emerge: the historical background of the division, the extreme differences between the two states, the role played by the North Korean nuclear threats and the impact of the September 11, 2001 on the interstate relations, and finally general situation and relations in the East Asian region. Then, three possible scenarios of the unification will be developed: through peaceful integration, through the fall of North Korea or through a war. Summing up, even the death of Kim Jong Il will not bring change in the domestic and foreign policy of North Korea which is going to continue an aggressive approach toward the South. In the short-term reunification is definitely not in the interest of the current ROK administration, and the South has no intention of encouraging it. None of the considered scenarios envisions early reunification, and it seems that for the future, the status quo on the Korean Peninsula will remain.

scholarly journals U.S. Foreign Policy Towards North Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-84
Author(s):  
Lucia Husenicova
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
American Foreign Policy ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Republic Of Korea ◽  
The North ◽  
Protection Of Human Rights ◽  
Mutual Relations ◽  
The U.S

The U.S. relations to Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are since the end of the Cold War revolving around achieving a state of nuclear free Korean peninsula. As non-proliferation is a long term of American foreign policy, relations to North Korea could be categorized primarily under this umbrella. However, the issue of North Korean political system also plays role as it belongs to the other important, more normative category of U.S. foreign policy which is the protection of human rights and spreading of democracy and liberal values. In addition, the North Korean issue influences U.S. relations and interests in broader region of Northeast Asia, its bilateral alliances with South Korea (Republic of Korea, ROK) and Japan as well as sensitive and complex relations to People’s Republic of China. As the current administration of president Donald J. Trump published its National security strategy and was fully occupied with the situation on Korean peninsula in its first year, the aim of the paper is to analyse the changes in evolution of U.S. North Korean policy under last three administrations, look at the different strategies adopted in order to achieve the same aim, the denuclearization. The paper does not provide a thorough analysis, neither looks at all documents adopted and presented in the U.S. or within the U.N. It more focuses on the general principles of particular strategies, most significant events in mutual relations as recorded by involved gov­ernmental officials and also weaknesses of these strategies as none has achieved desirable result. In conclusion, several options for current administration are drawn, however all of them require significant compromises and could be accompanied with series of setbacks dangerous for regional stability and U.S. position in the region.

The Impact of Sanctions on North Korea’s Foreign Trade from the Perspective of the Comparative Advantage Theory

2019 ◽  
pp. 4-15
Author(s):  
I. A. Korgun ◽  
G. D. Toloraya
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
National Economy ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Rent Seeking ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

The presented study analyzes the opportunities for North Korea to capitalize on its competitive advantages in foreign trade in the context of sanctions.Aim. The study aims to identify mechanisms that allow North Korea to engage in foreign trade in circumvention of UN sanctions and to analyze their impact on the national economy.Tasks. The authors analyze the structure of North Korea’s national economy, its initial competitive advantage, identify the specific features of North Korea’s foreign trade in the context of sanctions, and determine the consequences of illicit trade in circumvention of sanctions for the national economy.Methods. This study uses an interdisciplinary approach that combines the classical theory of competitive advantage with the concept of rent seeking, with the concept of rent seeking and analysis of trade flows.Results. The study shows that, despite the restrictions imposed by sanctions, North Korea strives to make the most of its advantages, such as resource availability and cheap labor, in global trade. The country builds its own export-import chains in circumvention of sanctions. These chains are rather mobile, flexible, and controlled by the elite. As a result, benefits from trade that could be evenly distributed among the population are concentrated in the hands of a narrow segment of society. ‘Rent seeking’ makes it possible to formulate the negative consequences of these processes for the North Korean economy and the international community.Conclusions. Solving the North Korean issue requires an economic transformation in the country through the replacement of restrictive sanctions with more constructive ones. The exclusion of North Korea from open global trade leads to the country’s marginalization and impairs the transparency of international commodity flows.

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